<div dir="auto">Hey roman<div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Trust you are well and brought in the New Year with plenty of cheer. </div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Oddly enough my bathroom scales has a missing battery. Convenient😃</div><div dir="auto"><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">To the business at hand, I was just illustrating how the A2E method works as a jockey rating method. The list is a small extract. </div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">The reason for Hall having nothing for say 2400? is that I put a minimum of 50 rides. </div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Interesting you mention P Hall. My speed ratings had Star Exhibit rated on top in the Perth Cup. If I had referred to the A2E list I would have been tipped out. Lol. </div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">I confess that I have dug into the A2E side of things many years ago. Although I had no joy, I believe that Len incorporates A2E somewhere in his setup. So does Nick A. </div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">At their level you are also massaging a Fav Long Shot (FLS) bias factor that would make my  list more accurate. </div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">I stumbled across the FLS bias factor in my Dr Z readings. Although talked about and quantified throughout the book I could not see the equation used. </div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Roman I can forward through the complete list if you were interested.</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">As an aside., personally I have yet to incorporate a Jockey adjustment to my speed ratings. Or a trainer adjustment for that matter. I prefer to keep them in their rawest state, for now. </div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">That being said, I have toyed with an average beaten margin index. The goal being to provide further separation / clarity to the ratings. As a rule of thumb </div><div dir="auto">I get say 3 speed points to a length. Ie it oscillates around 3 depending on the distance and other factors. So I can easily multiply the index by say 3, and simply add on. The strength of the jockey would be borne out in the difference of the gross adjust. </div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Despite having a access database with 10 years of data. incorporating these type of adjustments is like turning the Queen Mary around in Sydney harbour. </div><div dir="auto">Ideally you would be looking for a before versus an after set. My VBA skills are as such, that I cannot whip up code to achieve the above in a reasonable amount of time. </div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto">Best regards Sean</div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"><br></div><div dir="auto"><br></div></div></div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr">On Tue, 22 Jan 2019 22:42 Roman <<a href="mailto:kozza1950@bigpond.com">kozza1950@bigpond.com</a> wrote:<br></div><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div lang="EN-US" link="blue" vlink="purple"><div class="m_8177690345559607266WordSection1"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1f497d">Hey Sean,<u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1f497d">How’s life?<u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1f497d"><u></u> <u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1f497d">I am afraid I am missing the point of your stats. Yes, I can see Peter Hall is 0.51 at 1800m but Pike is the same over at 1100m with over 10 times the rides by Pike. <u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1f497d"><u></u> <u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1f497d">Why haven’t you provided P Hall at all distances? As for his figure of 2.04 for 1400m at just 59 rides is no indication, surely?<u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1f497d"><u></u> <u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1f497d">Why are the others incomplete?<u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1f497d"><u></u> <u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1f497d">Roman Koz<u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1f497d"><u></u> <u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"">From:</span></b><span style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif""> Racing [mailto:<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>] <b>On Behalf Of </b>sean mclaren<br><b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, January 22, 2019 4:38 PM<br><b>To:</b> AusRace Racing Discussion List<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Jockeys generally<u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><div><table class="m_8177690345559607266MsoNormalTable" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="511" style="width:383.0pt;border-collapse:collapse"><tr style="height:.2in"><td width="191" nowrap valign="bottom" style="width:143.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">JockeyA2ETable<br>AscotTrack<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td width="64" nowrap valign="bottom" style="width:48.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"></td><td width="64" nowrap valign="bottom" style="width:48.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"></td><td width="64" nowrap valign="bottom" style="width:48.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"></td><td width="64" nowrap valign="bottom" style="width:48.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"></td><td width="64" nowrap valign="bottom" style="width:48.0pt;padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">Rider<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">Distance<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">Actual<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">Expected<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">Rides<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">A2E<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">DAMIAN LANE<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1200<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">7<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">22.25<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">178<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">0.31<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">DANIEL STAECK<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1000<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">3<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">20.40<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">157<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">0.15<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">DANIEL STAECK<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1200<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">12<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">20.40<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">206<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">0.59<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">DANIEL STAECK<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1400<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">19<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">19.39<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">222<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">0.98<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">DANIEL STAECK<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1600<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">11<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">7.68<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">59<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1.43<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">DANIEL STAECK<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1800<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">9<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">8.61<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">48<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1.05<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">LUCY WARWICK<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1000<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">19<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">11.83<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">150<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1.61<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">LUCY WARWICK<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1200<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">10<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">8.98<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">53<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1.11<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">PETER HALL<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1200<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">9<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">8.12<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">56<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1.11<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">PETER HALL<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1400<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">15<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">7.37<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">59<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">2.04<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">PETER HALL<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1600<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">18<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">22.28<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">184<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">0.81<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">PETER HALL<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1800<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">4<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">7.88<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">45<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">0.51<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">PETER KNUCKEY<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1000<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">26<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">64.45<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">381<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">0.40<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">PETER KNUCKEY<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1100<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">26<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">35.25<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">253<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">0.74<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">PETER KNUCKEY<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1200<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">36<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">34.01<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">207<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1.06<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">PETER KNUCKEY<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1400<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">27<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">24.39<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">159<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1.11<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">PETER KNUCKEY<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1600<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">11<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">40.31<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">214<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">0.27<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">PETER KNUCKEY<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1800<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">9<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">7.44<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">60<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1.21<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">WILLIAM PIKE<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1000<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">37<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">48.42<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">332<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">0.76<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">WILLIAM PIKE<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1100<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">41<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">80.55<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">571<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">0.51<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">WILLIAM PIKE<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1200<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">96<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">86.60<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">434<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1.11<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">WILLIAM PIKE<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1400<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">89<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">86.57<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">487<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1.03<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">WILLIAM PIKE<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1500<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">26<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">26.37<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">127<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">0.99<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">WILLIAM PIKE<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1600<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">79<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">70.15<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">474<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1.13<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">WILLIAM PIKE<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">1800<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">33<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">35.14<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">159<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">0.94<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr><tr style="height:.2in"><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">WILLIAM PIKE<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">2200<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">38<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">45.77<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">246<u></u><u></u></span></p></td><td nowrap valign="bottom" style="padding:.75pt .75pt 0in .75pt;height:.2in"><p class="MsoNormal" align="right" style="text-align:right"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black">0.83<u></u><u></u></span></p></td></tr></table><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><div><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal">Here an extract of a few jocks in WA. The right hand column is the ROI for a $1.<u></u><u></u></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal">Caveat is these rides only include the first 5 in the market. Primitive means of extracting<u></u><u></u></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal">the outliers.<u></u><u></u></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal">Essentially the over round is taken out and the markets reset to 100%. From there an expected <u></u><u></u></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal">wins figure is arrived at. And ultimately checked against the actual. These have pulled at random.<u></u><u></u></p></div><div><p class="MsoNormal">The first couple are interesting. Remembering these are in the first 5.<u></u><u></u></p></div></div><p class="MsoNormal"><u></u> <u></u></p><div><div><p class="MsoNormal">On Mon, Jan 21, 2019 at 5:13 PM L.B.Loveday <<a href="mailto:lloveday@ozemail.com.au" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">lloveday@ozemail.com.au</a>> wrote:<u></u><u></u></p></div><blockquote style="border:none;border-left:solid #cccccc 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 6.0pt;margin-left:4.8pt;margin-right:0in"><div><div><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="color:black">Tony,</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="color:black"> </span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="color:black">Did not get to me and I just saw it in the archives - a very different rating method to mine; I'll evaluate and comment anon.</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="color:black"> </span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="color:black">LBL</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="color:black"> </span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="color:black"> </span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">790*150-93-96 is the revealed racing stat for Linda Meech tomorrow - to</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">expand this Ms Leech has had 790 rides for 150 wins in the time frame</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">covered by this stat. My IV for that is 1.4, essentially she is 40% advanced</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">on some others in this race.</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New""> </span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">No rider gets less than 1, although the calculation is often less than</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">that, John Keating has .6 (scores a one in the scheme). Why? - he is on a</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">horse in the race and Bradbury's have happened, although I use the 1 for</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">statistical pureness, and to get rid of some decimals. To be factual, off a</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">calculation, Keating is somewhere like 80% more unlikely of producing a good</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">ride than Meech - he has 395*17-25-33 and is .6 against Meech at 1.4 (1.4 -</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">.6 is the basis of the claim for 80%).</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New""> </span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">Jason Maskiell is also on 1.4 in this race, off 347*54-46-41. The factor is</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">0.300552251 (the average of all jockeys riding) and my fall back value is</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">.31 - if a jockey can't be rated (the data is missing e.g.) then I assign</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">that value to it early in the calculation.</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New""> </span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">Roger Biggs wrote that he used .2595, which may be the statistical base of</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">all jockey placings across many rides. This has changed somewhat, there is a</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">jockey db. on RB Ratings. I am unaware of another method to rate and rank</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">jockeys against all their rides. They can only ride one horse in a race so</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">that the iv concocted from a large number of rides seems to be correct, and</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">I total all the rides for all jockeys in the race then divide that into all</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">the places achieved by all the jockeys, and from that sub-total I</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">individually determine an iv. </span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New""> </span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">There is a place system for ranking jockeys when on favorites, but that is</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">not the jockey at all. Another time perhaps. Who likes, or wants, dividends</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">in the sub $2 range, most of us really. </span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New""> </span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">This upcoming race has riders which have achieved 4708 rides totally under</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">the period of review, and of those rides those riders scored, placed, in</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">1415. So, 1415/4708 = .300552251 is the factor to be used. Individually</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">Keating has 395*17-25-33 (17+25+33/395 = .1898734) and this product is again</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">divided by the total score .3005522512 to give the score of .6. These</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">numbers seem minimal, mickey mouse almost, but are a significant part of the</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">overall stat picture</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New""> </span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">Trainers may have two or more runners in the race. I score them the same as</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">jockeys, total rides into total places (123) and develop a iv score from</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">that.</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New""> </span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">Involving riders and trainers, getting a score from them combined, I</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">multiply their ivs and work with the product, ranking that.</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">Meech 1.4, trainer 1.3 (1.4 * 1.3 = 1.82)</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">Keating 1, trainer 1 (1 * 1 =1) actually .6 * .1. The trainer is yet to win</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">a race</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">Maskiell 1.4, trainer 1 (1.4 * 1 = 1.4.</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">Dylan Dunn = 1.1</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New""> </span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">There is some upside to Linda Meech ability, trainer ability.</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">This is R2 Kyneton tomorrow, a maiden and I'm not betting</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New"">in it, nor do I suggest you do.</span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-AU" style="color:black"> </span><span lang="EN-AU"><u></u><u></u></span></p></div></div><p class="MsoNormal">_______________________________________________<br>Racing mailing list<br><a href="mailto:Racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">Racing@ausrace.com</a><br><a href="http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com</a><u></u><u></u></p></blockquote></div></div></div>_______________________________________________<br>
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