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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-AU link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>Tony,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>Did not get to me and I just saw it in the archives - a very different rating method to mine; I'll evaluate and comment anon.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>LBL<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>790*150-93-96 is the revealed racing stat for Linda Meech tomorrow - to<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>expand this Ms Leech has had 790 rides for 150 wins in the time frame<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>covered by this stat. My IV for that is 1.4, essentially she is 40% advanced<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>on some others in this race.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'> No rider gets less than 1, although the calculation is often less than<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>that, John Keating has .6 (scores a one in the scheme). Why? - he is on a<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>horse in the race and Bradbury's have happened, although I use the 1 for<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>statistical pureness, and to get rid of some decimals. To be factual, off a<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>calculation, Keating is somewhere like 80% more unlikely of producing a good<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>ride than Meech - he has 395*17-25-33 and is .6 against Meech at 1.4 (1.4 -<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>.6 is the basis of the claim for 80%).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>Jason Maskiell is also on 1.4 in this race, off 347*54-46-41. The factor is<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>0.300552251 (the average of all jockeys riding) and my fall back value is<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>.31 - if a jockey can't be rated (the data is missing e.g.) then I assign<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>that value to it early in the calculation.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'> Roger Biggs wrote that he used .2595, which may be the statistical base of<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>all jockey placings across many rides. This has changed somewhat, there is a<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>jockey db. on RB Ratings. I am unaware of another method to rate and rank<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>jockeys against all their rides. They can only ride one horse in a race so<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>that the iv concocted from a large number of rides seems to be correct, and<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>I total all the rides for all jockeys in the race then divide that into all<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>the places achieved by all the jockeys, and from that sub-total I<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>individually determine an iv. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>There is a place system for ranking jockeys when on favorites, but that is<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>not the jockey at all. Another time perhaps. Who likes, or wants, dividends<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>in the sub $2 range, most of us really. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>This upcoming race has riders which have achieved 4708 rides totally under<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>the period of review, and of those rides those riders scored, placed, in<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>1415. So, 1415/4708 = .300552251 is the factor to be used. Individually<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>Keating has 395*17-25-33 (17+25+33/395 = .1898734) and this product is again<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>divided by the total score .3005522512 to give the score of .6. These<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>numbers seem minimal, mickey mouse almost, but are a significant part of the<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>overall stat picture<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>Trainers may have two or more runners in the race. I score them the same as<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>jockeys, total rides into total places (123) and develop a iv score from<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>that.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>Involving riders and trainers, getting a score from them combined, I<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>multiply their ivs and work with the product, ranking that.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>Meech 1.4, trainer 1.3 (1.4 * 1.3 = 1.82)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>Keating 1, trainer 1 (1 * 1 =1) actually .6 * .1. The trainer is yet to win<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>a race<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>Maskiell 1.4, trainer 1 (1.4 * 1 = 1.4.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>Dylan Dunn = 1.1<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>There is some upside to Linda Meech ability, trainer ability.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'> This is R2 Kyneton tomorrow, a maiden and I'm not betting<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'> in it, nor do I suggest you do.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></body></html>