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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-AU link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>RKOZ: Wow, that’s the dream result we all want just once a week!<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>It highlights 2 simple truths:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>(1) Betting to MBL limits, it is more advantageous to bet place, assuming you can make the same profit% on place as on win, you will win much more long-term on place bets; in that example I was limited to betting $200/$500, so assuming a long-term profit of 10%, requiring betting $1m per year to make RW's indicative living profit of $100k per year, you can get there with far fewer place bets, and for those who, like Roman, seem to prefer shorter prices, a far less bumpy ride to that result.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>Further illustration : to back all 535 horses currently quoted on today's races at top current win price from the 10 bookies I monitor would require $95,165 outlay, but $153,525 could be bet on the place.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'>(2) Betting to MBL limits it matters not what price you get about winners - if I'd bet at SP, 2.00 and, say, 1.20, I'd have had to outlay $1000 win and $2000 place, but win the same. What matters is what price you get about losers. Of course we cannot know which will lose or we would not bet them, so long-term it is very important to get the best price you can about every horse you back.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black;mso-fareast-language:EN-US'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US> Racing <racing-bounces@ausrace.com> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Roman<br><b>Sent:</b> Thursday, 27 December 2018 12:40 PM<br><b>To:</b> 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing@ausrace.com><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] FW: From the archives - 14 observations on the punt<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'> Racing [<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com">mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>] <b>On Behalf Of </b>L.B.Loveday<br><b>Sent:</b> Thursday, December 27, 2018 7:42 AM<br><b>To:</b> 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] FW: From the archives - 14 observations on the punt<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>Roman,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>In my opinion the best advice about betting was what Sean Bartholomew said in an interview way back - he determines what to back then sets out to get as much money on at the best price he can; succinct but who can rationally contradict a successful approach?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>RKOZ: Cannot knock that principle at all.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>An example of the advantages of early betting - yesterday my best "over" , viz price obtained divided by SP/SOP was Nhill 3/7, where I got 6.00/1.80 (limited by MBL to $200/$500) at 9:29am and it SP'd at 2.00, Top Fluc also 2.00, with 2.10 available on-line at the jump.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>It paid 1.80/1.80 Top Tote, varying from 1.60/1.04 (Vic) through 1.80/1.60 (NSW) to 1.80/1.80 (Qld - place pool $651 - if I'd bet $500 into the pool it would have paid 1.00).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>RKOZ: Wow, that’s the dream result we all want just once a week!<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>The average price of place bets I make is 6.5, the average win price 30.9. Don't recall the last time I backed a favourite that was favourite when I bet.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>RKOZ:You certainly forage in the toughest area, Len.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>The massive jump in TAB's take-out on exotics a few years back (to pay ZR etal rebates?) killed my ability to make a good living betting into TAB pools, so reinvented myself yet again - don't know how many reinventions I've left in me; maybe the one I'm working on now will be the final hurrah!<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>RKOZ: I have never made anywhere near a successful exotics approach due to trying all sorts of approaches I suppose rather than a static X for win y for 2<sup>nd</sup> and Z for 3<sup>rd</sup> in trifectas. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>LBL<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US> Racing <<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com">racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Roman<br><b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, 26 December 2018 2:51 PM<br><b>To:</b> 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] FW: From the archives - 14 observations on the punt<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US style='color:#1F497D'>Hi Len,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US style='color:#1F497D'>In between Caul races saw your post flash by.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US style='color:#1F497D'>You WILL note I said “most punters” and not a desperado like yourself!!!<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US style='color:#1F497D'>Wow, that’s why you win – it’s all about the work pre post leading into post time.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US style='color:#1F497D'>I have been pricing selections since June and have by the end of today a mere 268 mostly Victorian races but comments for them all and boy I find that tough enough.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US style='color:#1F497D'>RK<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma",sans-serif'> Racing [<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com">mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>] <b>On Behalf Of </b>L.B.Loveday<br><b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, December 26, 2018 2:10 PM<br><b>To:</b> 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] FW: From the archives - 14 observations on the punt<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><span lang=EN-US><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow'>" Re computer generated ratings: what a waste of time for most punters simply because of time and so many races."</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>My time:<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>(1) Daily download of yesterday's (or that day's if available before bedtime) results, correction of wrong jockeys and update of databases, 5 to 20 minutes per day (5 if no sus jockeys, can be 20 if a number to be chased up from Stewards Reports, videos...). Not time important, as long as it's done before first bets (jockey ratings are recalculated daily - there's "never" a horse backing up from yesterday).<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>(2) Download of fields for day and initial processing - 4 to 10 minutes depending on number of fields. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>(3) Download of scratchings and jockey changes after official scratchings, and updating fields - 2 minutes, but can be longer if the download is behind and I have to manually scratch and enter jockeys.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Repeated (3) as required (eg WA scratchings)<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>(4) Program to analyse, produce ratings 1 minute.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>(5) Download of 10 bookmaker's prices 1-3 minutes depending on number of fields - 2:10 minutes today. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>(6) Program to match ratings to prices and produce recommended bets 1 minute.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>(5) and (6) repeated at will to produce recommended bets with new prices.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow'>8. Strategies with large numbers of selections - >10% of available races tend to 0% POT over time with a plus/minus 15% over any 12 months.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow'>RKOZ: At all odds of selections seems right as the longer the odds the less chance of winning. </span> and:<span style='background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow'> best price/cost averaging across TABs is worth 5% and using a bookie maybe worth another 5%.</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>For large n, and excluding bets where there has been a late scratching (and thus likely deductions):<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>I average 1.24 times Final Top Win <b><i>ODDS (NOT price)</i></b> from the 10 bookmakers (which is a tighter market than SP) and 1.15 times Final Top Place <b><i>ODDS </i></b>(and 1.37/1.29 for those that do place) Which should be enough to win, but you still have to bet on the right horses, but if<b><i> </i></b><span style='background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow'>1. The market is efficient - like the stockmarket, there is no strategy that is better than the market over a large number of selections,</span> and I consistently could get 1.24/1.15 times final odds, in theory I could pick by throwing darts and win.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-US>-----Original Message-----<br>From: Racing <<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com">racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>> On Behalf Of Roman<br>Sent: Wednesday, 26 December 2018 12:47 PM<br>To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br>Subject: Re: [AusRace] FW: From the archives - 14 observations on the punt</span><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>First of all, greetings and salutations to all. I hope you have all had a great Christmas time with friends and family and the same for New Years Eve.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>As I am awaiting Caulfield I thought I would comment on the posting from Tony. I will do this with the RKOZ: interjection below<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Criteria for a successful selection strategy has evolved to At least 150 selections over 12 months Remove the best result from every 20 winners Produce 10% POT flat stakes (and this is now eked to 1-2%) And I still don't understand that.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Fourteen observations on the punt<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>1. The market is efficient - like the stockmarket, there is no strategy that is better than the market over a large number of selections (although there may be people who hedge and arbitrage the betting market - bookies?)<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>RKOZ: The word "strategy" is incorrect, I feel< and it should state the market order is efficient, that is, favs win more than 2nd favs who win more than third favs etc<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>2. Like the stockmarket, the real players use information that is not available to the wider market and not reflected in machine generated ratings<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>RKOZ: Agree to a certain degree. Unknown info is an insiders market but I think it is more the use of public information and how you use it that makes the difference. An expert in distance does better, perhaps, than a punter who studies breeding as the first is based on history whereas the second is based on supposition yet the same info is available to all. Other areas of the punt i.e. days since last raced or jockeys are the same.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>3. Machine produced ratings perform best with races 1000m-1800m and are biased to horses that run on the pace.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>RKOZ: First part disagree but certainly favour those who race near the lead.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>4. 2yo, jumps, firstup, greater 2000M are not harder than other forms of racing but seem to require specialist skills.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>RKOZ: Contradictory. It must be harder if you need specialist skills, surelyl!! All aspects of the punt require special skills<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>5. Ratings perform as well in metro, provincial and country racing<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>RKOZ: All depends on GIGI (garbage in, garbage out) but I don't use ratings so don't know if there is a difference or not.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>6. It is easier to pick horses that will lose than horses that will win<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>RKOZ: That's no great insight.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>7. Plus 50 units is as good as it gets for any reasonable selection strategy<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>- 150+ selections over a 12 month period - maybe for any selection strategy. <o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Perhaps plus 100 units is as good as it gets for anyone anywhere except the exception.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>RKOZ: Just not enough stats there to understand the whole premise but I guess the suggestion is winning 50 units on 150 outlay. Gee, rack it up for your next house buy if you can do this.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>8. Strategies with large numbers of selections - >10% of available races tend to 0% POT over time with a plus/minus 15% over any 12 months.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>RKOZ: At all odds of selections seems right as the longer the odds the less chance of winning.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>9. Personal selections add at most 5% to any rules based selection strategy over time<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>RKOZ: Assume means on top of a computer generated system. Would agree.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>10. The easiest strategy appears to be based on identifying a couple of hundred true favourites a year<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>RKOZ: Yes, agree. Hard to do but they are there.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>11. Most identifiable true favourites are widely identified and are the late mail and firm into favouritism if they aren't already.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>RKOZ: Don't really know.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>12. Reasons true favourites don't win -10% over-rated/20% bad day/30% jockey/40% others under-rated<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>RKOZ: Seems reasonable.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>13. Money management - best price/cost averaging across TABs is worth 5% and using a bookie maybe worth another 5%.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>RKOZ: Don't know about an extra 10% overall but yes plus 5 is certainly there.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>14. There are many many other selection strategies that may or may not Perform<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>RKOZ: So what. Dumb comment - means nothing.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Posted by butthead originally<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>RKOZ: Not sure about the rest.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>From my point of view the author isn't really saying anything most solid punters do not already know. The better punters have researched their areas of interest (Len with jockeys as an example) and know those over and underbet and those who are poor back in a field It would be the same with trainers.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Re computer generated ratings: what a waste of time for most punters simply because of time and so many races. It would be far easier to tackle the first four favs with the finest of microscopic investigation. AT least some of the ratings work has been done by the price assessors and then by race time others have added their knowledge. From there it is a matter of whether you agree and if you are good enough you win.<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Lunch is ready!!<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Ciao<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Roman Koz<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>_______________________________________________<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText>Racing mailing list<o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><a href="mailto:Racing@ausrace.com"><span style='color:black;text-decoration:none'>Racing@ausrace.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><a href="http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com"><span style='color:black;text-decoration:none'>http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></p></div></body></html>