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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Hi Len,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>In between Caul races saw your post flash by.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>You WILL note I said “most punters” and not a desperado like yourself!!!<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>Wow, that’s why you win – it’s all about the work pre post leading into post time.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>I have been pricing selections since June and have by the end of today a mere 268 mostly Victorian races but comments for them all and boy I find that tough enough.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'>RK<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> Racing [mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com] <b>On Behalf Of </b>L.B.Loveday<br><b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, December 26, 2018 2:10 PM<br><b>To:</b> 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] FW: From the archives - 14 observations on the punt<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU style='background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow'>" Re computer generated ratings: what a waste of time for most punters simply because of time and so many races."</span><span lang=EN-AU><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>My time:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>(1) Daily download of yesterday's (or that day's if available before bedtime) results, correction of wrong jockeys and update of databases, 5 to 20 minutes per day (5 if no sus jockeys, can be 20 if a number to be chased up from Stewards Reports, videos...). Not time important, as long as it's done before first bets (jockey ratings are recalculated daily - there's "never" a horse backing up from yesterday).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>(2) Download of fields for day and initial processing - 4 to 10 minutes depending on number of fields. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>(3) Download of scratchings and jockey changes after official scratchings, and updating fields - 2 minutes, but can be longer if the download is behind and I have to manually scratch and enter jockeys.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>Repeated (3) as required (eg WA scratchings)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>(4) Program to analyse, produce ratings 1 minute.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>(5) Download of 10 bookmaker's prices 1-3 minutes depending on number of fields - 2:10 minutes today. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>(6) Program to match ratings to prices and produce recommended bets 1 minute.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>(5) and (6) repeated at will to produce recommended bets with new prices.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU style='background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow'>8. Strategies with large numbers of selections - >10% of available races tend to 0% POT over time with a plus/minus 15% over any 12 months.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU style='background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU style='background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow'>RKOZ: At all odds of selections seems right as the longer the odds the less chance of winning. </span><span lang=EN-AU> and:<span style='background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow'><o:p></o:p></span></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU style='background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU style='background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow'> best price/cost averaging across TABs is worth 5% and using a bookie maybe worth another 5%.</span><span lang=EN-AU><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU style='background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>For large n, and excluding bets where there has been a late scratching (and thus likely deductions):<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>I average 1.24 times Final Top Win <b><i>ODDS (NOT price)</i></b> from the 10 bookmakers (which is a tighter market than SP) and 1.15 times Final Top Place <b><i>ODDS </i></b>(and 1.37/1.29 for those that do place) Which should be enough to win, but you still have to bet on the right horses, but if<b><i> </i></b><span style='background:yellow;mso-highlight:yellow'>1. The market is efficient - like the stockmarket, there is no strategy that is better than the market over a large number of selections,</span> and I consistently could get 1.24/1.15 times final odds, in theory I could pick by throwing darts and win.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>-----Original Message-----<br>From: Racing <racing-bounces@ausrace.com> On Behalf Of Roman<br>Sent: Wednesday, 26 December 2018 12:47 PM<br>To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing@ausrace.com><br>Subject: Re: [AusRace] FW: From the archives - 14 observations on the punt</span><span lang=EN-AU><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>First of all, greetings and salutations to all. I hope you have all had a great Christmas time with friends and family and the same for New Years Eve.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>As I am awaiting Caulfield I thought I would comment on the posting from Tony. I will do this with the RKOZ: interjection below<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>Criteria for a successful selection strategy has evolved to At least 150 selections over 12 months Remove the best result from every 20 winners Produce 10% POT flat stakes (and this is now eked to 1-2%) And I still don't understand that.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>Fourteen observations on the punt<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>1. The market is efficient - like the stockmarket, there is no strategy that is better than the market over a large number of selections (although there may be people who hedge and arbitrage the betting market - bookies?)<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>RKOZ: The word "strategy" is incorrect, I feel< and it should state the market order is efficient, that is, favs win more than 2nd favs who win more than third favs etc<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>2. Like the stockmarket, the real players use information that is not available to the wider market and not reflected in machine generated ratings<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>RKOZ: Agree to a certain degree. Unknown info is an insiders market but I think it is more the use of public information and how you use it that makes the difference. An expert in distance does better, perhaps, than a punter who studies breeding as the first is based on history whereas the second is based on supposition yet the same info is available to all. Other areas of the punt i.e. days since last raced or jockeys are the same.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>3. Machine produced ratings perform best with races 1000m-1800m and are biased to horses that run on the pace.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>RKOZ: First part disagree but certainly favour those who race near the lead.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>4. 2yo, jumps, firstup, greater 2000M are not harder than other forms of racing but seem to require specialist skills.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>RKOZ: Contradictory. It must be harder if you need specialist skills, surelyl!! All aspects of the punt require special skills<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>5. Ratings perform as well in metro, provincial and country racing<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>RKOZ: All depends on GIGI (garbage in, garbage out) but I don't use ratings so don't know if there is a difference or not.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>6. It is easier to pick horses that will lose than horses that will win<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>RKOZ: That's no great insight.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>7. Plus 50 units is as good as it gets for any reasonable selection strategy<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>- 150+ selections over a 12 month period - maybe for any selection strategy. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>Perhaps plus 100 units is as good as it gets for anyone anywhere except the exception.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>RKOZ: Just not enough stats there to understand the whole premise but I guess the suggestion is winning 50 units on 150 outlay. Gee, rack it up for your next house buy if you can do this.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>8. Strategies with large numbers of selections - >10% of available races tend to 0% POT over time with a plus/minus 15% over any 12 months.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>RKOZ: At all odds of selections seems right as the longer the odds the less chance of winning.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>9. Personal selections add at most 5% to any rules based selection strategy over time<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>RKOZ: Assume means on top of a computer generated system. Would agree.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>10. The easiest strategy appears to be based on identifying a couple of hundred true favourites a year<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>RKOZ: Yes, agree. Hard to do but they are there.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>11. Most identifiable true favourites are widely identified and are the late mail and firm into favouritism if they aren't already.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>RKOZ: Don't really know.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>12. Reasons true favourites don't win -10% over-rated/20% bad day/30% jockey/40% others under-rated<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>RKOZ: Seems reasonable.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>13. Money management - best price/cost averaging across TABs is worth 5% and using a bookie maybe worth another 5%.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>RKOZ: Don't know about an extra 10% overall but yes plus 5 is certainly there.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>14. There are many many other selection strategies that may or may not Perform<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>RKOZ: So what. Dumb comment - means nothing.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>Posted by butthead originally<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>RKOZ: Not sure about the rest.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>From my point of view the author isn't really saying anything most solid punters do not already know. The better punters have researched their areas of interest (Len with jockeys as an example) and know those over and underbet and those who are poor back in a field It would be the same with trainers.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>Re computer generated ratings: what a waste of time for most punters simply because of time and so many races. It would be far easier to tackle the first four favs with the finest of microscopic investigation. AT least some of the ratings work has been done by the price assessors and then by race time others have added their knowledge. From there it is a matter of whether you agree and if you are good enough you win.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>Lunch is ready!!<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>Ciao<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>Roman Koz<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>_______________________________________________<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU>Racing mailing list<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><a href="mailto:Racing@ausrace.com"><span style='color:black;text-decoration:none'>Racing@ausrace.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoPlainText><span lang=EN-AU><a href="http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com"><span style='color:black;text-decoration:none'>http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p></div></body></html>