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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Hi Steve,<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">I know you’re the time guru, but your post has me scratching my head.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">How will your standards tell you the going, when it might be a number of Group 1 and Maiden races?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Or in Melbourne most Group 1 races are run in Spring when the tracks are better going, and Open races are run all year round.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Then there’s 3200m hurdles and steeples etc, obviously the time is going to be quite different to all flat races over 3200m, so the hurdles and steeples will
seem Heavy 10 and the flat races will seem Firm 2…..just putting it out there, as that’s just an example of how deriving track condition from time is error prone.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Lindsay.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:windowtext">From:</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:windowtext"> Racing [mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com]
<b>On Behalf Of </b>Steve<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, 20 June 2018 9:20 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> racing@ausrace.com<br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Racing Digest, Vol 18, Issue 3<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">No you don't need a time for each going.<br>
If you dissected the times that Tony put up as an example, you would see that they are all over the place relatively.<br>
Most people that do it that way get, the same inconsistencies,<br>
And remember that word....relatively.....as it's the most important thing to consider when doing time<br>
One time for each distance at each track is all you need.<br>
That way your standards will tell you the going, probably more accurately than the official which is after all just an opinion of whoever is doing whichever track.<br>
<br>
Good luck though as there is so many inaccurate times, wrong distances, and three zillion ways of giving the section times.<br>
<br>
SteveB<br>
<br>
On 19/06/2018 11:41 PM, Race Stats wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Hi Nick,</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Regarding Len’s suggestions regarding par times, I thought I’d give you a little bit of extra information.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Par times by themselves are pretty nebulous as Len suggests.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">If you’re familiar with Excel, here is my recommendation.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Often you will find that track record times are often on many races one day at a venue, so obviously the track is faster than the rating.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Forget Class records, they mean very little overall.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Take the race times and dissect them into overall time, final sectional time and then race time minus sectional time, this will give you the pace time.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">You MUST have a par time for every going condition not just Soft, you need Soft5, Soft6, Soft7.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Look at the top horses that won with fast race time, then fast last sectional, then pace time.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">You’ll soon see the impact of what is useful and what is not.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">You’ll also see where the track rating is obviously wrong when all or most races are above that par.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Course manager must lodge the track going prior to 6.50am on race day, they cannot change the track rating for the day after that period, only the Stewards
or Jockeys can suggest to Stewards a change in track rating. Ergo, there are many ratings that are not correct.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91">Lindsay.</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#365F91"> </span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"">From:</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif""> Racing [<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com">mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>]
<b>On Behalf Of </b><a href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a><br>
<b>Sent:</b> Monday, 18 June 2018 9:33 PM<br>
<b>To:</b> AusRace Racing Discussion List<br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Racing Digest, Vol 18, Issue 3</span><o:p></o:p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">Ok thanks Len. Not sure if I'm au fait enough with the concept to come up with anything so sophisticated as an algorithm. If I do, you'll be my first port of call. <o:p></o:p></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal">Did fiddle around with ideas by Gavin Haynes a few year's ago but his stats must be outdated by now. <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">For some reason all the replies have come through aggregated which makes replying damned confusing. <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">On Mon, Jun 18, 2018 at 9:26 PM <a href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com">
norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a> <<a href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">G'day Mike,<o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"> Thanks for the suggestion. I got that email too but had forgotten all about it. Must be an age thing.<o:p></o:p></p>
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<span style="font-size:1.0pt">18/06/18, 21:24:56</span> <o:p></o:p></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal">On Mon, Jun 18, 2018 at 8:59 PM <<a href="mailto:racing-request@ausrace.com" target="_blank">racing-request@ausrace.com</a>> wrote:<o:p></o:p></p>
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Today's Topics:<br>
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1. Par times (<a href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com" target="_blank">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a>)<br>
2. Re: Par times (<a href="mailto:mikemcbain@tpg.com.au" target="_blank">mikemcbain@tpg.com.au</a>)<br>
3. Re: Par times (L.B.Loveday)<br>
4. Re: Par times (Tony Moffat)<br>
<br>
<br>
----------------------------------------------------------------------<br>
<br>
Message: 1<br>
Date: Sun, 17 Jun 2018 17:34:08 +1000<br>
From: "<a href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com" target="_blank">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a>" <<a href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com" target="_blank">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a>><br>
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br>
Subject: [AusRace] Par times<br>
Message-ID:<br>
<CAJfP4b2LkbzL_iqGSn9K+zgy6mwLw1POCwgUSY+pfzH2=<a href="mailto:rSqgg@mail.gmail.com" target="_blank">rSqgg@mail.gmail.com</a>><br>
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Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust courses?<br>
<br>
<br>
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17/06/18,<br>
17:33:07<br>
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Message: 2<br>
Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2018 11:03:10 +1000<br>
From: <<a href="mailto:mikemcbain@tpg.com.au" target="_blank">mikemcbain@tpg.com.au</a>><br>
To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Par times<br>
Message-ID: <001f01d406a0$20e59d80$62b0d880$@<a href="http://tpg.com.au" target="_blank">tpg.com.au</a>><br>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"<br>
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Norsaint<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Neale Yardley recently made the following comment in an email?.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
?Again my thanks go to Steven Angelides from PPFA for providing the par times. Steven is back in Australia from Hong Kong and is touring Australia if anyone would like to catch up with him (he is happy to talk about Bet Selector, PPFA, Hong Kong or anything
else racing related). Venues and dates are listed below but please note Steven has a new mobile number which is 0413164550. His email is still the same viz <mailto:<a href="mailto:stavros@wn.com.au" target="_blank">stavros@wn.com.au</a>>
<a href="mailto:stavros@wn.com.au" target="_blank">stavros@wn.com.au</a>?<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Might be worth your while asking Steven?<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Mike.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
From: Racing <<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com" target="_blank">racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>> On Behalf Of
<a href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com" target="_blank">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a><br>
Sent: Sunday, 17 June 2018 17:34<br>
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br>
Subject: [AusRace] Par times<br>
<br>
<br>
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<br>
<br>
<br>
Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust courses? <br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
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Message: 3<br>
Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2018 11:49:07 +1000<br>
From: "L.B.Loveday" <<a href="mailto:lloveday@ozemail.com.au" target="_blank">lloveday@ozemail.com.au</a>><br>
To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Par times<br>
Message-ID: <004701d406a6$8ec2dce0$ac4896a0$@<a href="http://ozemail.com.au" target="_blank">ozemail.com.au</a>><br>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"<br>
<br>
Nick,<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
"Par times" is, to me, a nebulous term - they can be calculated in various ways, times are affected by track condition (not only on the day, but by permanent upgrades such as at Gawler), rail positioning, wind direction, riding tactics, in-race mishaps such
as a fall, the class of horses, whether there are zero, one, two? "natural" leaders and whether they vie for the lead, weight conditions??<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
So I never consider them, but I do have a database of every Australian race for the past 20+ years, including:<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Date,<br>
<br>
Course,<br>
<br>
Distance,<br>
<br>
Class,<br>
<br>
Limit Weight,<br>
<br>
Weight carried by placegetters,<br>
<br>
Condition,<br>
<br>
No of starters,<br>
<br>
Prizemoney,<br>
<br>
and of course Time<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
You determine an algorithm for calculating par times and I'll write a program and send you the results; otherwise you are just relying on someone else's methodology, almost certainly without knowing the basis of his determinations.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
LBL<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
From: Racing <<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com" target="_blank">racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>> On Behalf Of
<a href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com" target="_blank">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a><br>
Sent: Sunday, 17 June 2018 5:34 PM<br>
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br>
Subject: [AusRace] Par times<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
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Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust courses? <br>
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Message: 4<br>
Date: Mon, 18 Jun 2018 18:58:56 +0800<br>
From: "Tony Moffat" <<a href="mailto:tonymoffat@bigpond.com" target="_blank">tonymoffat@bigpond.com</a>><br>
To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Par times<br>
Message-ID: <000001d406f3$5b558d60$1200a820$@<a href="http://bigpond.com" target="_blank">bigpond.com</a>><br>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"<br>
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Saintly ? I don?t know if the other mail made it through ? it was big<br>
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Is this the type of info you need?<br>
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Who does this?<br>
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Cheers<br>
<br>
Tony<br>
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Ball a rat<br>
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900 (firm) 51.8<br>
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900 (good) 52.5<br>
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900 (soft) 53.4<br>
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900 (heavy) 54.6<br>
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1000 (firm) 56.5<br>
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1000 (good) 57.9<br>
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1000 (soft) 59.1<br>
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1000 (heavy) 1.0.7<br>
<br>
1100 (firm) 1.2.4<br>
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1100 (good) 1.3.9<br>
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1100 (soft) 1.5.7<br>
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1100 (heavy) 1.7.3<br>
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1200 (firm) 1.9.1<br>
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1200 (good) 1.10.3<br>
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1200 (soft) 1.12.0<br>
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1200 (heavy) 1.13.1<br>
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1400 (firm) 1.23.2<br>
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1400 (good) 1.24.5<br>
<br>
1400 (soft) 1.26.3<br>
<br>
1400 (heavy) 1.28.2<br>
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1500 (firm) 1.31.3<br>
<br>
1500 (good) 1.32.6<br>
<br>
1500 (soft) 1.34.3<br>
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1500 (heavy) 1.36.5<br>
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1600 (firm) 1.37.1<br>
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1600 (good) 1.37.8<br>
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1600 (soft) 1.40.0<br>
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1600 (heavy) 1.42.5<br>
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2000 (firm) 2.3.8<br>
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2000 (good) 2.6.1<br>
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2000 (soft) 2.7.7<br>
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2000 (heavy) 2.10.9<br>
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2200 (firm) 2.14.8<br>
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2200 (good) 2.17.7<br>
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2200 (soft) 2.20.6<br>
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2200 (heavy) 2.22.4<br>
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From: Racing [mailto:<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com" target="_blank">racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>] On Behalf Of
<a href="mailto:norsaintpublishing@gmail.com" target="_blank">norsaintpublishing@gmail.com</a><br>
Sent: Sunday, June 17, 2018 3:34 PM<br>
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com" target="_blank">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br>
Subject: [AusRace] Par times<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<<a href="https://mailtrack.io/trace/mail/01784b0f304474dd0bea5726003865a7ac7f8307.png?u=1035275" target="_blank">https://mailtrack.io/trace/mail/01784b0f304474dd0bea5726003865a7ac7f8307.png?u=1035275</a>>
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<br>
<br>
Does anyone know how or where to get them for Aust courses? <br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<<a href="https://mailtrack.io?utm_source=gmail&utm_medium=signature&utm_campaign=signaturevirality5&" target="_blank">https://mailtrack.io?utm_source=gmail&utm_medium=signature&utm_campaign=signaturevirality5&</a>>
<br>
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Sender notified by <br>
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---<br>
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End of Racing Digest, Vol 18, Issue 3<br>
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