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</div></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Thu, Apr 19, 2018 at 1:58 PM, <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:racing-request@ausrace.com" target="_blank">racing-request@ausrace.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">Send Racing mailing list submissions to<br>
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Today's Topics:<br>
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1. Re: Place Power - a system (Tony Moffat)<br>
<br>
<br>
------------------------------<wbr>------------------------------<wbr>----------<br>
<br>
Message: 1<br>
Date: Thu, 19 Apr 2018 11:58:00 +0800<br>
From: "Tony Moffat" <<a href="mailto:tonymoffat@bigpond.com">tonymoffat@bigpond.com</a>><br>
To: <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Place Power - a system<br>
Message-ID: <000001d3d792$9cf89450$<wbr>d6e9bcf0$@<a href="http://bigpond.com" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">bigpond.com</a>><br>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"<br>
<br>
Len ? <br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Dr Dedman gave the formula for calculating a fair place price against<br>
the price of the favoured horse (which includes the favourite)<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Dedman wrote Commonsense Punting and the newer Commonsense Punting<br>
Revisited ? more sums with letters and numbers.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
His equation determines the price of a horse running second as ?<br>
second horse price (this is the price you entered in the equation) *<br>
the favourite horse price ? 1.<br>
<br>
so (s*(fp-1))<br>
<br>
Eloquent isn?t it?<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
So, in an equation involving $2.5(f) and $4(s) it sees the $4(s)<br>
winning at a calculated price of $4 ? as if the (F) $2.5 did not<br>
exist. <br>
<br>
Continuing: the results of further calculations using the inputs<br>
mentioned (2.5 as F &4.00 as S)<br>
<br>
S wins $4 ? this is the exacta with these runners also.<br>
<br>
F wins, S second $6<br>
<br>
Any other horse(an outsider) wins, S second $10.8<br>
<br>
F wins, S third $9.3<br>
<br>
F second, S third $ 14.6<br>
<br>
S third, F unplaced $ 32.6<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
The sum of these is the fair place price for S<br>
(0.25+0.166667+0.09292+0.<wbr>107693+0.068618+0.030681)<br>
<br>
Totals 71.66% = $1.40 ? this is the calculated place price for 1st or<br>
2nd or third.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Thank you to Sean (an Ausracer) for paring it back to referential<br>
reasoning (in my case at least).<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
I have 10 (ten) of these equations working for me each race. 1st and<br>
2nd, 3rd,4th, 5th fav<br>
<br>
2nd and 3rd,4th , 5th<br>
<br>
3rd and 4th, 5th<br>
<br>
4th and 5th.<br>
<br>
I want to look and see if there is any obvious overs ? well I did, I<br>
went back to sensible punting and losing (with the occasional<br>
windfall) quick smart.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
The equation chokes on big numbers, the relevance seems to go when you<br>
force it to compute unrealistic combinations eg your $101 winner with<br>
a few other lesser prices (as S)<br>
<br>
S=$4 ? calculated place price $1.60 when old school ? gives you $1.75<br>
<br>
S=$5 ? calculated place price $1.80<br>
<br>
S=$6 ? calculated place price $ 2.10<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
I mentioned old school 1/4 there ? you take your win return, minus 1,<br>
divide this by 4, then add one. So $4 goes (($4-1)/4)+1) <br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
I tend to rank the quinella dividends, all of them, then highlight the<br>
top 10 and speedbet those if they exceed/comply with another rule ?<br>
this is how I grow my bank now.<br>
<br>
Often a $2 quinella will exceed an exacta dividend (often by a lot) ?<br>
it $2 because I reverse the exacta too, 1 and two, two and 1 as a<br>
demonstration.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Cheers ? raining here, so wet Saturday in Mel-bourne<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Tony<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
From: Racing [mailto:<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com">racing-bounces@<wbr>ausrace.com</a>] On Behalf Of<br>
L.B.Loveday<br>
Sent: Wednesday, April 18, 2018 12:19 PM<br>
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com">racing@ausrace.com</a>><br>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Place Power - a system<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Tony,<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
The apparent imbalance between %age of win pools and place pools is<br>
somewhat a reflection of reality.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
I first saw a "mathematical" calculation of one-race exotic odds based<br>
on win odds in Scott's book - I don't know whether he devised the<br>
formulae, or got them from another's work, but I instinctively knew<br>
they were flawed, and my better calculations held me in good stead for<br>
many years. But I can't beat 20% take-out by enough to bother.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
To explain via a straightforward example of the simplest one-race<br>
exotic to calculate - the Exacta.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Let's say we have calculated a 100% win market, (or SP adjusted to<br>
100%):<br>
<br>
1/1, 5/1, 10/1, 10/1, 20/1, 20/1, 20/1, 100/1 (=100.124298%)<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Let's say the 100/1 shot wins<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Scott then says you have a "race" between the other 7 for second, so<br>
ignoring the 0.990099% reduction to 99.1432%, Scott says the 1/1 is<br>
still 1/1 and the 5/1 shot still 5/1 etc.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
It just isn't so. 47% from my very large sample that start at 1/1 win<br>
(SP market, not adjusted to 100%), whereas only 38% of those that do<br>
not win come second, viz "win" the race for second, whereas it should<br>
be around the same 47% if 100/1 shots won the races the 1/1 shot lost,<br>
even higher in practise - eg in the above race, say the 5/1 shot wins,<br>
Scott takes the 17% of the 5/1 shot from 100%, giving 83% and says the<br>
chances of the 1/1 shot coming second having not won is 50/83 = 7/10,<br>
but they come second nothing like that often.<br>
<br>
I'm a mere statistician by training and practise, and seldom watch<br>
races, let alone base my ratings on what I have seen, but my<br>
explanation is that whatever prevented them from winning often also<br>
prevented them from coming second (eg interference, missing the start,<br>
being poorly ridden, sea gulls, being a stallion when a mare comes on<br>
heat?.).<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
At the other end, the opposite applies - a 100/1 shot is 2.5 times as<br>
likely to run second having lost, as it is to win, while a 10/1 chance<br>
is 1.43 times as likely to run second having lost as it is to win. <br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
LBL<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
From: Racing <<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com">racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a><br>
<mailto:<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com">racing-bounces@<wbr>ausrace.com</a>> > On Behalf Of Tony Moffat<br>
Sent: Tuesday, 17 April 2018 2:21 PM<br>
To: <a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com">racing@ausrace.com</a> <mailto:<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com">racing@ausrace.com</a>> <br>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Place Power - a system<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Len ? thanks<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
I did not intend to discombobulate, flummox even ? the system<br>
instruction is to use those runners with the ratio of 1.2 or better<br>
and then I went with 1.12 or similar.<br>
<br>
The idea was good, the execution not so.<br>
<br>
No, I did not sit a shift at the keyboard watching these, I did watch<br>
a couple of closing minutes for a few races, betting off my own<br>
ratings of course<br>
<br>
so I saw the trending for those I observed (to state the obvious) ? if<br>
you must know I spent most of the day sieving compost - and listening<br>
to an album by Hem.<br>
<br>
(For broad beans Northerly, yes, I wore a mask.)<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
The ?Dr Z System? focuses on discrepancies between betting patterns in<br>
the win pool and the place pool (being American it has an element of<br>
the show pool included)<br>
<br>
This system is involved, if you follow it to the letter, but again its<br>
object is to identify those runners under bet in the place pool,<br>
relative to their pool portion in the win pool.<br>
<br>
Another variation, continuation, or some such of ?Place Power? ?see<br>
Beat the Racetrack and Betting at the Racetrack (Ziemba and Hausch)<br>
two books full of algebra.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
I don?t want to seem to be disparaging about algebraic maths, finding<br>
a winner is complicated enough, without finding a value for C, when A<br>
and B are minute numbers, and those with another letter in them.<br>
<br>
Ok, I?m disparaging, deriding, but only because I don?t understand.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Cheers<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Tony<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
From: Racing [mailto:<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com">racing-bounces@<wbr>ausrace.com</a>] On Behalf Of<br>
L.B.Loveday<br>
Sent: Monday, April 16, 2018 8:57 PM<br>
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com">racing@ausrace.com</a><br>
<mailto:<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com">racing@ausrace.com</a>> ><br>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Place Power - a system<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Tony,<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
I calculated Winx on final Vic TAB which I see you used, and got 2.37,<br>
so that matched, but had differences with others (eg R2, Renewal I got<br>
1.02).<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Not to matter, I calculated 33,000 races (360,000 runners), minimum<br>
starters 8, no late scratchings, using Tatts Final Dividends, mainly<br>
to be 100% sure that what I "knew" held up.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
It did - the average ratios when Final Win Dividend:<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<2.0, 2.12 <br>
<br>
2.0 & <5.0 1.35<br>
<br>
5.0 & <10.0 0.95<br>
<br>
10.0 & <25.0 0.74<br>
<br>
25.0 & <50.0 0.63<br>
<br>
>=50.0 0.55<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Cheers,<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
LBL<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
From: Racing <<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com">racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a><br>
<mailto:<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com">racing-bounces@<wbr>ausrace.com</a>> > On Behalf Of Tony Moffat<br>
Sent: Sunday, 15 April 2018 12:34 PM<br>
To: <a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com">racing@ausrace.com</a> <mailto:<a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com">racing@ausrace.com</a>> <br>
Subject: [AusRace] Place Power - a system<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
There was a time when electronic devices, communication articles the<br>
signs said, were banned on course. Computers, calculators, mobile<br>
phone bricks, anything interpreted as a communication article, you had<br>
to take them off course, you had to leave and take the devils tools<br>
with you. There were signs about this, at the entrances ? no phones<br>
basically<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Place Power was a software package, chosen for installation on Canon<br>
calculators, with programs for specific HP, TI and other brands of the<br>
time ? these were programmable calculators with minimal RAM and the<br>
program in the ROM and so scientific. I had an upmarket Texas<br>
Instrument (I worked for an affiliate of theirs for some years) which<br>
was hard on battery power but had a proper sized keyboard. It was a<br>
brilliant piece of hardware for the time, blue and black, with a large<br>
screen, and of a size that was a boast, a display of knowledge that<br>
perhaps you didn?t have but the device might. It came with a holster,<br>
to complete the manliness aspect, or, a vest with a sizeable<br>
elasticised pocket for it to be warmed and comforted by contact. That<br>
vest was unlikely to be worn on course I suggest. There was a pen, a<br>
plastic rod, that you used to select the keys, they had a moulded hole<br>
in their centre to accept the point, this was to prevent moisture,<br>
sweat then, from contacting the facia, where the keys were. They were<br>
sealed against Resch Pilsner, I tested that aspect. No, I never used<br>
it in the bath, or shower. It is military grade, volo 7, and meant for<br>
the Moon and Mars and beyond, truly.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
You purchased the calculator wherever you could get the best deal,<br>
then you sent it to Place Power who loaded up the program, they said<br>
it was specific to each brand, each model. It came back to you in the<br>
mail, wrapped in that bubble wrap stuff, kids love it, and you went<br>
ahead with making your fortune. My program had a lot of other data<br>
with it, statistics for barriers, TAB numbers, parlay programs, all up<br>
programs, about 30 data cases in all (34 actually). <br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
There is a downside to all this scientific magnificence, this being<br>
when they purged the ROM to install their program, they wiped the<br>
surveying program and the navigation program.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
It was expensive, the program, the purchase of the calculator, the<br>
time element. It can be torture, in the seconds before race starting<br>
time, keying in the data elements, hitting RUN, and waiting for the<br>
BASIC program to enliven the screen with the data you need, needed.<br>
The technique, perhaps, was to enter all the data with 10 minutes to<br>
start time, run it, then update only those runners which were sorted<br>
to the top of the list.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
The day-ta or da-ta, it was spelt that way in the book, 230 pages of<br>
an advertisement for the program, was the win and place dividends. The<br>
program displayed these as % values of the whole dividend field, the<br>
book %, then reduced this to a 100% market, for win divs. It did the<br>
same for place, the 300% market was reduced to 100%. The win dividend<br>
win % and the place dividend % were compared with stored data and if<br>
there was a variation, more money on the win side, or more money on<br>
the place side, or even over the whole bet then the calculator did its<br>
thing and informed you and made a betting suggestion, just off this. <br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
The runner(s) to be supported were those which had less % in the place<br>
line than in the win line. The instruction was that more money had<br>
been bet, for the win, than for the place, this shows confidence, this<br>
is information not available to anybody (else ? except system users).<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
The method, the rationale of all of this is investigated several times<br>
in academic texts. The data revealed is used by several authors, who<br>
take the first findings forward in an endeavour to correctly isolate a<br>
runner with the best credentials, off investment input. The writings<br>
are heavy on algebra, mystic like, with assertions that .0062 is<br>
marvellous whilst .0053 is not, useless.<br>
<br>
A starting point might be Peter Asch and Richard E Quandt ?Racetrack<br>
Betting? or/and ?Market Efficiency in Racetrack Betting?. Google for<br>
more, heaps, to be non-scientific about it at all. <br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
The endeavours of them all in attempting to straighten the line, the<br>
arrow that points to a dividend, is appreciated. Them and their<br>
regression analysis equations, god bless ?em.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
The process in the program is described in detail in Asch and Quandt<br>
(1986) page 117 onwards, although it, the process, is not given<br>
ownership to anybody in the expansive book that comes with the<br>
program. It just is, with flowery adjectives describing how it is<br>
good, better, best. The principle was known well before the date of<br>
manufacture of the calculator. Perhaps it was a parallel development,<br>
he asks mockingly.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
When I returned to the program supplier, to have the navigation and<br>
surveying programs re-installed several years later, he told me they<br>
had sold two copies of Place Power, although copying, pirating was a<br>
common activity back then, especially for HP model 41 schemes and<br>
programs. I still have mine, giant robust device that it is, it feels<br>
like you could open bottle tops with it, hammer nails, and a child has<br>
had it as a cot toy, although this was not planned, honestly, it has<br>
no taste, no flavour. It has a heft which is comforting, and it fires<br>
up instantaneously, still does.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
If a runner had 14% of the win pool and 12%, or 11% of the place or<br>
some figure less, this would ear mark itself as a runner to do further<br>
research, especially if these differences occurred later in the<br>
betting, less than 100 seconds say. It is assumed that all the money<br>
is in the pool then, bettors with known information, bettors with<br>
private information, all ups, and later money, after 100 seconds, it<br>
is an assumption though, is from bettors, little and large, private<br>
and corporate, betting into a niche now revealed. Who knows this? <br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
The runner information, the dividend clauses, is similar to test done<br>
by several persons in several way (days since last start, form, last<br>
start finish position etc), and further, the runner to be supported<br>
must be 1.2 times less than the win dividend per centage holding,<br>
found by dividing the place percent dividend holding into the win<br>
dividend place holding.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Starting with Randwick R1 yesterday ? selections were scored from<br>
after the race data, the final dividends.<br>
<br>
The win dividend % holding was 10.1, the place dividend % holding was<br>
8.5, 10.1/8.5 = 1.18 (it was 1.3 when the decision to select was made)<br>
result 2nd $2.6.<br>
<br>
Race 2 1.53 3rd $1.60<br>
<br>
Race 3 1.6 2nd $2.3 ? the system selected 1st,2nd and 3rd<br>
<br>
Race 4 1.22 1st $2.4<br>
<br>
Race 5 1st 1.7 $2.9<br>
<br>
Race 6 1st 1.47 $1.8, the system selected 2nd also<br>
<br>
Race 7 1st 2.36 $1.04 ?this was Winx<br>
<br>
Race 8 3rd 1.22 $1.7<br>
<br>
Race 9 2nd 1.19 (it was 1.4 when selected) $3.7 ?there was lots of<br>
electronic action on this race, the get out stakes v1<br>
<br>
Race 10 1st 1.41 $2.4 ? there was lots of electronic action on this<br>
race, the get out stakes v2<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
It selected a winner, a dividend, in every race bar the 1st at<br>
Caulfield ? it made no selection in this race.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
I did 33 races, on a spreadsheet program (Smartbet v2.05), and it<br>
selected a dividend in all of them. Too good to be true?<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Summary: Compare the win dividend with the place dividend ? there are<br>
several ways.<br>
<br>
If the win dividend appears oversubscribed, determine if the place<br>
dividend is a value bet now, $W/$P and if the runner has other<br>
attributes (decided by you) consider it for a bet. This last clause is<br>
necessary to reduce qualifiers, there can be 3 or so, depending on the<br>
betting volatility, and is suggested in the book with the program.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Winx was a selection. She had a dividend score of 2.36 (Win divided by<br>
place) and other winning attributes.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Cheers<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Tony<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
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End of Racing Digest, Vol 16, Issue 9<br>
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