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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-AU link="#0563C1" vlink="#954F72"><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>Interesting Tony. It was well over 20 years ago that I was the first person to bring a laptop (Epson, yes they used to make computers) into Randwick on race day. Incredibly about 10 years ago a goon tried to stop me taking a laptop into Randwick and I had to call the TAB boss to come and tell him to wise up.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>The relationship between chances of winning and chances of placing, while I'd not call it tenuous, is not the perfect relationship that corporate whiz-kids make it. Way back you would know that bookmakers gave place odds as 1/4 the win odds in fields of 8 or more, sometimes restricting you to horses 4/1 and over, usually betting win only with an odds-on pop in the race.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>We could see that was not right, but they did not bet place only, so you had to cop the win odds as well if you wanted to bet place. The horse that brought that sharply to my attention was Silver Sharpe back in 1970, which only won 3 races, but never placed. The 3 wins were all Group 1, so you'd have thought it could run into a place sometimes, but it never did (at least had not at the stage it came to my attention). We hear of the "professional placegetter", but there are also those that tend to win or come no-where, like SS.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>The whiz-kids are not smart enough to adjust markets to reflect that reality.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>Take the 8 meetings today - in every case where they had horses in the same race at the same win price (final market), BetZero, Ladbrokes, Crown and WilliamH had the same prices for the place (their algorithms vary wildly, so one may have 41/8.0, another 41/11.0 for the same horse, but they will both have, respectively 8.0/11.0 the place about every other 41.0 horse in that race. SportsBet (6), TAB (7) and Tatts (6) had some not quite in sync (eg 4.10/1.50 and 4.10/1.55).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>In the morning market, all seven bookmakers had the same place prices for all horses with the same win prices in the same race, so the few out-of-sync ones in final markets would be due to weight of money, not whiz-kids, heaven forbid, having an opinion<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'>LBL.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'> Racing <racing-bounces@ausrace.com> <b>On Behalf Of </b>Tony Moffat<br><b>Sent:</b> Sunday, 15 April 2018 12:34 PM<br><b>To:</b> racing@ausrace.com<br><b>Subject:</b> [AusRace] Place Power - a system<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>There was a time when electronic devices, communication articles the signs said, were banned on course. Computers, calculators, mobile phone bricks, anything interpreted as a communication article, you had to take them off course, you had to leave and take the devils tools with you. There were signs about this, at the entrances – no phones basically<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>Place Power was a software package, chosen for installation on Canon calculators, with programs for specific HP, TI and other brands of the time – these were programmable calculators with minimal RAM and the program in the ROM and so scientific. I had an upmarket Texas Instrument (I worked for an affiliate of theirs for some years) which was hard on battery power but had a proper sized keyboard. It was a brilliant piece of hardware for the time, blue and black, with a large screen, and of a size that was a boast, a display of knowledge that perhaps you didn’t have but the device might. It came with a holster, to complete the manliness aspect, or, a vest with a sizeable elasticised pocket for it to be warmed and comforted by contact. That vest was unlikely to be worn on course I suggest. There was a pen, a plastic rod, that you used to select the keys, they had a moulded hole in their centre to accept the point, this was to prevent moisture, sweat then, from contacting the facia, where the keys were. They were sealed against Resch Pilsner, I tested that aspect. No, I never used it in the bath, or shower. It is military grade, volo 7, and meant for the Moon and Mars and beyond, truly.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>You purchased the calculator wherever you could get the best deal, then you sent it to Place Power who loaded up the program, they said it was specific to each brand, each model. It came back to you in the mail, wrapped in that bubble wrap stuff, kids love it, and you went ahead with making your fortune. My program had a lot of other data with it, statistics for barriers, TAB numbers, parlay programs, all up programs, about 30 data cases in all (34 actually). <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>There is a downside to all this scientific magnificence, this being when they purged the ROM to install their program, they wiped the surveying program and the navigation program.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>It was expensive, the program, the purchase of the calculator, the time element. It can be torture, in the seconds before race starting time, keying in the data elements, hitting RUN, and waiting for the BASIC program to enliven the screen with the data you need, needed. The technique, perhaps, was to enter all the data with 10 minutes to start time, run it, then update only those runners which were sorted to the top of the list.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>The day-ta or da-ta, it was spelt that way in the book, 230 pages of an advertisement for the program, was the win and place dividends. The program displayed these as % values of the whole dividend field, the book %, then reduced this to a 100% market, for win divs. It did the same for place, the 300% market was reduced to 100%. The win dividend win % and the place dividend % were compared with stored data and if there was a variation, more money on the win side, or more money on the place side, or even over the whole bet then the calculator did its thing and informed you and made a betting suggestion, just off this. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>The runner(s) to be supported were those which had less % in the place line than in the win line. The instruction was that more money had been bet, for the win, than for the place, this shows confidence, this is information not available to anybody (else – except system users).<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>The method, the rationale of all of this is investigated several times in academic texts. The data revealed is used by several authors, who take the first findings forward in an endeavour to correctly isolate a runner with the best credentials, off investment input. The writings are heavy on algebra, mystic like, with assertions that .0062 is marvellous whilst .0053 is not, useless.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>A starting point might be Peter Asch and Richard E Quandt ‘Racetrack Betting’ or/and ‘Market Efficiency in Racetrack Betting’. Google for more, heaps, to be non-scientific about it at all. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>The endeavours of them all in attempting to straighten the line, the arrow that points to a dividend, is appreciated. Them and their regression analysis equations, god bless ‘em.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>The process in the program is described in detail in Asch and Quandt (1986) page 117 onwards, although it, the process, is not given ownership to anybody in the expansive book that comes with the program. It just is, with flowery adjectives describing how it is good, better, best. The principle was known well before the date of manufacture of the calculator. Perhaps it was a parallel development, he asks mockingly.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>When I returned to the program supplier, to have the navigation and surveying programs re-installed several years later, he told me they had sold two copies of Place Power, although copying, pirating was a common activity back then, especially for HP model 41 schemes and programs. I still have mine, giant robust device that it is, it feels like you could open bottle tops with it, hammer nails, and a child has had it as a cot toy, although this was not planned, honestly, it has no taste, no flavour. It has a heft which is comforting, and it fires up instantaneously, still does.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>If a runner had 14% of the win pool and 12%, or 11% of the place or some figure less, this would ear mark itself as a runner to do further research, especially if these differences occurred later in the betting, less than 100 seconds say. It is assumed that all the money is in the pool then, bettors with known information, bettors with private information, all ups, and later money, after 100 seconds, it is an assumption though, is from bettors, little and large, private and corporate, betting into a niche now revealed. Who knows this? <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>The runner information, the dividend clauses, is similar to test done by several persons in several way (days since last start, form, last start finish position etc), and further, the runner to be supported must be 1.2 times less than the win dividend per centage holding, found by dividing the place percent dividend holding into the win dividend place holding.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>Starting with Randwick R1 yesterday – selections were scored from after the race data, the final dividends.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>The win dividend % holding was 10.1, the place dividend % holding was 8.5, 10.1/8.5 = 1.18 (it was 1.3 when the decision to select was made) result 2<sup>nd</sup> $2.6.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>Race 2 1.53 3<sup>rd</sup> $1.60<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>Race 3 1.6 2<sup>nd</sup> $2.3 – the system selected 1<sup>st</sup>,2<sup>nd</sup> and 3<sup>rd<o:p></o:p></sup></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><sup><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>Race </span></sup><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>4 1.22 1<sup>st</sup> $2.4<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>Race 5 1<sup>st</sup> 1.7 $2.9<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>Race 6 1<sup>st</sup> 1.47 $1.8, the system selected 2<sup>nd</sup> also<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>Race 7 1<sup>st</sup> 2.36 $1.04 –this was Winx<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>Race 8 3<sup>rd</sup> 1.22 $1.7<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>Race 9 2<sup>nd</sup> 1.19 (it was 1.4 when selected) $3.7 –there was lots of electronic action on this race, the get out stakes v1<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>Race 10 1<sup>st</sup> 1.41 $2.4 – there was lots of electronic action on this race, the get out stakes v2<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>It selected a winner, a dividend, in every race bar the 1<sup>st</sup> at Caulfield – it made no selection in this race.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>I did 33 races, on a spreadsheet program (Smartbet v2.05), and it selected a dividend in all of them. Too good to be true?<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>Summary: Compare the win dividend with the place dividend – there are several ways.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>If the win dividend appears oversubscribed, determine if the place dividend is a value bet now, $W/$P and if the runner has other attributes (decided by you) consider it for a bet. This last clause is necessary to reduce qualifiers, there can be 3 or so, depending on the betting volatility, and is suggested in the book with the program.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>Winx was a selection. She had a dividend score of 2.36 (Win divided by place) and other winning attributes.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>Cheers<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'>Tony<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:14.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:12.0pt;font-family:"Verdana",sans-serif;color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div id=DAB4FAD8-2DD7-40BB-A1B8-4E2AA1F9FDF2><p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><table class=MsoNormalTable border=1 cellpadding=0 style='border:none;border-top:solid #D3D4DE 1.0pt'><tr><td width=55 style='width:41.25pt;border:none;padding:9.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'><p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><a href="http://www.avg.com/email-signature?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=emailclient" target="_blank"><span style='text-decoration:none'><img border=0 width=46 height=29 style='width:.4791in;height:.302in' id="_x0000_i1025" src="https://ipmcdn.avast.com/images/icons/icon-envelope-tick-green-avg-v1.png"></span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p></td><td width=470 style='width:352.5pt;border:none;padding:9.0pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'><p class=MsoNormal style='line-height:13.5pt'><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#41424E;mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'>Virus-free. <a href="http://www.avg.com/email-signature?utm_medium=email&utm_source=link&utm_campaign=sig-email&utm_content=emailclient" target="_blank"><span style='color:#4453EA'>www.avg.com</span></a> <o:p></o:p></span></p></td></tr></table><p class=MsoNormal><span style='mso-fareast-language:EN-AU'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></div></body></html>