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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-AU link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Hi Peter,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>I have Jockey and Trainer ratings as a basis of my ratings program.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>I have done numerous test with the ratings over time frames, and I have found 3 months to be optimal for both sets.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>The trainers do perform better as Mike says, but it also depends on what you base the ratings on??? – I believe this is the key to the ratings. There is allot more than strike rate, POT,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><a name="_MailEndCompose"><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Odds of horses etc when it comes to both Jockey and Trainer ratings, this is where allot of these type of rating fall over, as they lack true ability to judge a jockey or a trainer.<o:p></o:p></span></a></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Phil<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div style='border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0cm 0cm 0cm'><p class=MsoNormal><b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span lang=EN-US style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> Racing [mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com] <b>On Behalf Of </b>terry styles<br><b>Sent:</b> 17 September 2017 8:30 AM<br><b>To:</b> AusRace Racing Discussion List<br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [AusRace] Jockey Rating Thoughts<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=MsoNormal><o:p> </o:p></p><div id=divtagdefaultwrapper><p><span style='font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black'>Peter,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black'>You should be putting a South African Jockey right up there with the HK champ on some measures and actually ahed on others but Len might disagree with me whenit comes to their 'value' to you as a bettor.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black'>Len knows more than most but may not want to share much! <o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black'>Punter behaviour may confuse any jockey rating values you come up with and this behaviour may also change over time as perceptions change. So the question becomes what is more important - jockey rating or punter behaviour to your bottom line? Possibly the answer changes quite radically over time and noticing this early on may give you an edge ....... for a time ..... but not forever.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p><span style='font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black'>Terry<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><span style='font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div><div class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><span style='font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black'><hr size=2 width="98%" align=center></span></div><div id=divRplyFwdMsg><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black'> Racing <<a href="mailto:racing-bounces@ausrace.com">racing-bounces@ausrace.com</a>> on behalf of Peter Dean <<a href="mailto:peter_dean34@hotmail.com">peter_dean34@hotmail.com</a>><br><b>Sent:</b> Friday, 15 September 2017 9:18 PM<br><b>To:</b> <a href="mailto:racing@ausrace.com">racing@ausrace.com</a><br><b>Subject:</b> [AusRace] Jockey Rating Thoughts</span><span style='font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p><div><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:black'> <o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Hi,<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>I am using a set of jockey ratings that have been calculated over a 12 mnth history.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Naturally there are potentially some inaccuracies with jockeys currently out of form or others recently improved and not commanding a high rating.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>My question is has anyone ever done any analysis to determine the optimum period over which to calculate the rating and how often to update it ?<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Thanks in advance.<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Peter<o:p></o:p></span></p></div><div><p class=MsoNormal style='background:white'><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></div></div></div></div></body></html>