[AusRace] The Weight Facts and others - a system

[Tony Moffat]

Addition, division, multiplication and subtraction all feature in racehorse
selection systems, more or less, and that depending on what the system
author is trying to tell us, or have us believe.

'The Weight Facts', 'Betting Shop Fast Scheme" and "Bookie Bomber" all
feature division, all have similar words and phrases, and the last two have
the same result pages. I think somebody has been plagiarizing somewhat.

TWF (The Weight Facts) has results over 11 years or so, not every race, no,
but the first 12 months, then a monthly summary for the remaining years.
That's impressive, and so is the system if my working of it is as it should.

I have not verified the results in the booklet.

 'Dog Power', 'Harness Power, and the ubiquitous 'Horse Power' are English
publications (meaning booklets). I did not know that harness racing was a
'thing' in UK. Anyways, those three booklets are the same except the naming
of the subject matter is changed to suit the circumstances - In 'Dog Power'
the opening sentence is 'in the wonderfould' (yes, like that!) world of
greyhound racing. In 'Horse Power' the opening sentence is the same except
'Horse Power' is used.

What I'm getting at here is this. Those six named systems all use the same
selection criteria:- division, and then use the same inputs.

(1) Divide the SP by 8 to get a selection value ( $12/8 = 1.5, $5/8 =.0625,
$22/8 = 2.75). The divisor (8) represents the 8 runners in every race that
have a legitimate chance. The greyhound system stops at this point. The
values obtained are those you use to decide your bets, low numbers matter.

(2) Multiply the value from (1) - we'll use 1.5 from rule (1) - with the
finish position, say 6(th) = 1.5 * 6 equals 9. If that 9 is less than the SP
from its qualifying race then that race is 'powerful' - an appropriate
phrase may have been 'strong formwise'.

In this example the product 9 (1.5 * 6) IS less than the SP from its
qualifying race ($12) and this runner is included in betting on this race.

The dividing and multiplying and comparing usually seems to result in 2 to 4
runners to be considered further, or as the system requires, just back them
no matter.

Continuing - 'Horse Power' now accepts the selections from the first part
then does another equation. The form race weight for the selections from
Rule(1) is divided by the finish position. If the runner with decided value
9 from above had previously carried 57 kg and finished 6th then its
calculated value is 57/6 = 9.5. Horse power asks you to do this calculation
over all its previous 5-10 runs and average the results. That's ambiguous
but it is a system.

To summarise to this point. 'Horse Power' using Rule 1 has sorted the
preferences (selections) in the first part. Those preferences (selections)
are again subjected to the second part (of Rule2) and the big numbered
selection(s) from that form the bet(s). Clear as mud, a few reads required -
I typed it slowly too.

I tend to cut straight to the chase and do the second part only (of Rule 2)
eg divide the form weight by the finish position and get an averageif of
those runs.


A sample - Newcastle today Race 8 The Hunter

Vilana was rated 1 (37.27) and won
Waihaha Falls was rated 2 and scr.
Apache Chase was rated 3 and ran 4th
In the Congo was rated 4th and ran 2nd

Race 9
Cotohele rated 1
Coal Crusher rated 4 and won
Waihaha Falls was rated 9 and second
Classy Jaybee was rated 3 and scr.

Race 10 MyDeel rated 4 unp
Sindacato rated 2 and 3rd
Oakwood Shadow rated 1 and won

Race 7
Pierossa rated 4 1st
Kazalark rated 2 2nd
Robusto rated 1 3rd
Saveadatefor me unp
Starlink eq 2nd unp

Cheers

Tony



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