[AusRace] Bookmakers - a system

[Tony Moffat]

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: Friday, 29 July 2022 10:05 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Bookmakers - a system

Thanks Mike.  I have included/added an addendum, please re-read.

Please post up the rules of your winning system from 'all those years ago in
PPM'

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of
mikemcbain at tpg.com.au
Sent: Friday, 29 July 2022 8:45 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Bookmakers - a system

Tony,

I really appreciate your detailed explanation of these calculations.
 Perhaps my 85yo old brain is getting lazy or hazy but you do make it easy
to understand how these things are calculated.

Keep winning

Mike.

Subject: [AusRace] Bookmakers - a system

There are 3 systems with this name (known to me)
(a) snipped

(b) snipped

(c) A method, authored by a man who was the form and pricing guru for a
real, actual bookmaker in Melbourne all those years ago.

 He took the place percentage earned by every runner, converted that into a
price (to get a place value- divide 100 by the place % of each) then using
the equation 'place value -1, times 4, plus one' he computed the win price
for each runner off their place value.

Old school place dividends were calculated like that -winners price less 1,
divide by 4, add 1

The result was a long list of massive overs which the bookmaker could/would
twiddle and turn until a sellable range of prices emerged, and the book
value summed to 110 rather than 180 or so earlier.

Yes there were further examinations regarding class - mainly in support of
the newer prices.

The bookmaker made a further value judgement regarding the runner, the
stable, the owners intentions.

An example: Pakenham R8 today
3 Vadarchie has a place % of 100% (1 run, 1 place, a win) and first up from
a spell
9 Vibrant Girl has a place % of 50% (10 runs, 5 places) a win last start
-30+ days
11The Ballet Dancer has a place % of 60%( 5 runs, 3 places) a win last start
- 19 days
Others Judestar 50%.

Vadarchie, using 100/100% = 1 then 1-1*4+1 = 1 which is the bastardised
calculation of its win possibility. Its best tote was $11.00 and it was
selected to feature by the expert(s).

Vibrant Girl using 100/50 = 2 then 2-1(=1)*4+1 = 5. Its tote was $8

Race winner,The Ballet Dancer, has a place percentage of 60% - 100/60 = 1.66
so 1.66 -1= .66 then
.66 *4 =2.64 plus 1 = 3.6 ($3.60) and best tote was $4. Ok not a big
dividend but you get the picture. This runner was not selected by the
experts pre-race.

Actually the winner was down in weight from last start when she won by 3+
lengths in BM80 time and was coming out of a maiden into a BM64. I backed
her as a result and not as a system selection which she was here.

Judestar priced at $7 ran 4th at $7.70

Addendum:- Often 3 or more get priced way under their tote odds.

Hope the above information helps you

Cheers

Tony





--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com


_______________________________________________
Racing mailing list
Racing at ausrace.com
http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com


_______________________________________________
Racing mailing list
Racing at ausrace.com
http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com


--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com


_______________________________________________
Racing mailing list
Racing at ausrace.com
http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com


-- 
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com