[AusRace] Charleys Way - a system

Tony Moffat tonymoffat at bigpond.com
Wed May 26 15:05:12 AEST 2021


The author was never completely identified in these papers - Bob Charley was
a punter of note, often associated with Don Scott and his group.
I am not nominating Charley as the author (because I don't know) but Bob
Charley did form, did study early 2 year old racing, and had a weekly mail
out.

The basis of this system is the authors belief that the majority of runners
finish a race within a known distance (s/he says 'set distance') and makes
the point that 2nd is 1 length from the winner always.

So, s/he scales the winner on 0, 2nd(1), 3rd(2.5),4th(3.5),5th(5), 6th(6)
7th(7.5) 8th (8.5) 9th(9.5) etc. How these figures were decided upon is not
completely revealed, it may have been off innumerable observations, and as
s/he says, 'even if they didn't finish as I told you the numbers can be
considered an average, and that average is repeated year in and year out'.

System users then choose the runner to support by comparing the summed
values from a runners last three starts (must have a minimum of 6 starts
prior to this race - why is not revealed)

The author insists that the horse selected is 2 lengths clear of the next in
line otherwise no bet - this curtails betting  somewhat, a lot usually, and
it can't be seen or shown to be an advantage. Winners often come from
runners with small/short form figures not necessarily the best of the
runners.

Another way perhaps.

Boston Bob (an American if its not that obvious) also wrote at length about
the same technique. Bob did some research and reported on it, he often
reviewed runners in groups of a hundred races, over two or three issues of
the form guide - he doesn't seem to mention which one. He, at least, had a
finish position number and an in running length from the winner at the
finish. As each group was reviewed his values for 2nd, 3rd 4th etc
lengthened or shortened as the case may be. His values were similar to those
quoted by Charley.

Really thorough investigations were completed by Roger Biggs and reported in
Handicapping for 21C (Orion House publication). This book examined the
running of thousands of races with hundreds of thousands of particpants and,
at least and at last, the conclusions proffered are statistically based and
their derivation is shown. See page 38, table 11.

 Biggs solved a lot of the hungry punters conundrums, not only this subject
of beaten lengths at the finish. 

Roger Biggs figures for beaten distances are similar to the two others
mentioned. He cautions that the values cannot be accepted piecemeal, you
have to watch the qualifying run and see if your runner(s) do in fact finish
in agreement with their calculated values, and adjust if they don't. The
tendency generally to clump in a pack after the first 5-9 cross the line is
noted (says I)

Using Roger Biggs methodology
MR4 On 0 = 11 D'oro Rain Unp $24.6 - .3 length (point 3 len) was the winner
Nikau Spur $1.50, 3rd was next on 2.4 len
SR3 4 On 0 =Horse 4 3rd, on 3.3 len equal first and second (1,2,3 selected)
SR4 winner on 3.3 len - 1st and 3rd selected
MR5 winner on 2.6 len - (1,2,3 selected)
BR5 SELECT 4,7,2,8
AR5 SELECT 1,2,3,7
SR5 SELECT 2,5 +9 EQUAL,3
MR6 SELECT 3,4, 13, 16

Cheers

Tony




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