[AusRace] Was Apprentice Power - a system - now a discussion re systems

Mon Jun 14 17:42:17 AEST 2021

Saintly asked – as below.

Although I don’t purposefully follow the systems I have  a few that I have got to work and they run along with other Excel sheets – often a human decision is required in deciding a bet in a system, eg ‘if it was 6/4 second last start and ran fourth or worse, then last start improved but started longer, do not back it today unless it is 9/1 with two minutes to start time today, or less than its average sp !! – this is a rule.

Not too many saw Tofane as a probable in the Stradbroke – although the Barwon plan had it as second out. The Hunter, Namoi, and Barwon Plans seemed to be based on mystical maths that just had to be sourced in fact. The Barwon asks you to divide the length of the race by the horse length and include this product in the next calculation(s), to divide the morning line by 1.5, the barrier and weight likewise then convert to lengths, sum everything and chose the lesser sums as your selections.

The Barwon is one of a suite of systems that work along every day. It has a weight clause whereby the light weights are penalised but the top weights not so much. It has also the requirement that you must involve the sp as well, although this element is minor than it might be it is still an element.

With Tofane so many systems would have had her cast out on a mare v horse rule. Somebody (VDW?) has said beware the heavy weighted mare, they run faster than their weight suggests, and was this the case in this race?

I had a flirt with doubles betting way back, with the Doomben 10000 into the Stradbroke, (and into the Cup as well) based on information in ‘The Australian Racegoer’s Guide to Backing Winners’  which was an annual list of good horses that was updated weekly. I know I had Lucky Guy in the Stradbroke when it won but did not do the wheel with the other runner(s) in the 10000, I had the winner of both just not the double, the worst sin. Was it Black Oynx? – I’ll Google it later.

There is a back story here too. I had malaria and it is a hell of a way to lose weight as you may know. Because of delirium, it’s prevention actually, I had to read aloud for an hour or more each day or show that I had read, studied, and walked for two hours. I got my copy of ‘the Guide’ during this time and I spent time making comparisons with weekend winners and those runners within. It is from that study that I chose the runners I did. My Boss at the time was a little harsh, claiming aloud that his best man was off ‘skiving’ and this during holidays. He thought I had hepatitis, which is way better than malaria, apparently. I had both. When I did get to work (it was some weeks later) it was in a ‘top secret location’ and there was no communication allowed between us and the outside world, except, letters in envelopes with windows in the face (ask the client why) and that is what the doubles sheets, and ratings sheets, had – windows! Mum re-directed my mail from just down the river at Oatley and those envelopes had the doubles bookmaker name , Francis Coast, on the front. 

Cheers

Tony

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: Monday, 7 June 2021 7:57 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Apprentice Power - a system

Northerly – no to coding or programming. The results I show are more often on the day of posting or a few days up to that point in time.

So much of my systems holding has been moved on, gifted off,  or sanitised, boxed up and awaiting collection. I have retained some, Australiana all of it including autographed works by Scott, Plante et al

It has no value except as knowledge maybe. I enjoy the positivity in the writing and promotion of systems, if it works that is expected, if it doesn’t work its because of the rules, and you didn’t follow the rules.

I don’t use a system in my betting, or do I. I do use a combination of 30 parts of racehorse information given by DynamicOdds ‘expert’ Excel sheet 

Cheers

Tony

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of norsaintpublishing at gmail.com <mailto:norsaintpublishing at gmail.com> 
Sent: Monday, 7 June 2021 3:45 PM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com <mailto:racing at ausrace.com> >
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Apprentice Power - a system

Have you ever coded/programmed these systems, Tony?

Not sure how else you'd run them all or keep tabs on how they're performing. 

On Mon, 7 Jun 2021 at 13:29, Tony Moffat <tonymoffat at bigpond.com <mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com> > wrote:

I'm not doing it right, obviously, as the instructions with this system are
promising a 'succession of good priced winners' and what I have is a win at
$83, then 34 probables, and a winner at $49.

That/those 34 were not strictly system selects, although they were ridden by
apprentices, and their previous race criteria were within the selection
parameters. No, strictly I had a winner way back, then a winner recently
($83 + $49) with a dearth of picks in between, how disappointing, how
useless, what a waste of money!, he types attempting irony.

The rules

The runner today is to be ridden by a claiming apprentice (those who have
out ridden their claim are NOT considered)

The race distance is less than 'a mile and no more' (1609 metres)
Handicaps only

There has to be a reason for the apprentice claim today
(i) weight off
(ii) up in distance
(iii) drawn 'awkwardly' (wide)
(iv) last run within 31 days

The author uses the universal value of 3lbs off for all riders and was sure
everybody (this was then) could make the weight. 
The rider, using his claim, must ride at the new weight. If the rider could
not make the weight, utilise their full claim (of 3lbs) then that horse was
discarded. No examples were given although some statistics were given, most
favourable to the system rules.

Some sums

MR5 Muswellbrook (Josh Richards 2 kg) won this but its selection was
discarded because of the barrier, got to have laws (for the protection of
honest persons and the guidance of fools)
MR6 Alana Kelly had won on this previously, the weight off clause works,
barrier ok, except it was up in distance (discarded)
MR7 Mikaela Lawrence (3kg) could not get the handicap weight below that in
the previous race (when she rode also), barrier, discard
MR8 Josh Richards (2Kg) could not get the handicap below that in the
previous race (when he rode also) -discard
Bairnsdale R$ Celine Gaudray qualified - 2nd $4.40
Bairnsdale R6 Celine Gaudray qualified - fail
SR 3 Dylan Gibbons qualified (@54.5, he rides at 54Kg) third $26
SR 4 Dylan Gibbons again - fail - others(2) discarded because of weight
clause
SR 7 Casey Waddell rides at 51kg, her ride had 55kg less 2 kg claim, ridden
at 53 kg - fail $10

Not good examples are they?, but typical of the past runs I looked at.

The author writes ' horses often run well for 'boys' (this was then) because
the young men take their rides forward early, forward and 1 or two wide in
running, which is often a position the horse has not been in before, for a
while, and often this is the pattern of its last win, forward and in clean
air'.

I have not seen too many systems involving/including apprentices, most often
those apprentices are to be ignored, as are their rides. In reality, money
squawkes, and riders in-the-money score better than their average. 

Another way, perhaps not

Cheers

Tony

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