[AusRace] Apprentice Power - a system

[Tony Moffat]

I'm not doing it right, obviously, as the instructions with this system are
promising a 'succession of good priced winners' and what I have is a win at
$83, then 34 probables, and a winner at $49.

That/those 34 were not strictly system selects, although they were ridden by
apprentices, and their previous race criteria were within the selection
parameters. No, strictly I had a winner way back, then a winner recently
($83 + $49) with a dearth of picks in between, how disappointing, how
useless, what a waste of money!, he types attempting irony.

The rules

The runner today is to be ridden by a claiming apprentice (those who have
out ridden their claim are NOT considered)

The race distance is less than 'a mile and no more' (1609 metres)
Handicaps only

There has to be a reason for the apprentice claim today
(i) weight off
(ii) up in distance
(iii) drawn 'awkwardly' (wide)
(iv) last run within 31 days

The author uses the universal value of 3lbs off for all riders and was sure
everybody (this was then) could make the weight. 
The rider, using his claim, must ride at the new weight. If the rider could
not make the weight, utilise their full claim (of 3lbs) then that horse was
discarded. No examples were given although some statistics were given, most
favourable to the system rules.

Some sums

MR5 Muswellbrook (Josh Richards 2 kg) won this but its selection was
discarded because of the barrier, got to have laws (for the protection of
honest persons and the guidance of fools)
MR6 Alana Kelly had won on this previously, the weight off clause works,
barrier ok, except it was up in distance (discarded)
MR7 Mikaela Lawrence (3kg) could not get the handicap weight below that in
the previous race (when she rode also), barrier, discard
MR8 Josh Richards (2Kg) could not get the handicap below that in the
previous race (when he rode also) -discard
Bairnsdale R$ Celine Gaudray qualified - 2nd $4.40
Bairnsdale R6 Celine Gaudray qualified - fail
SR 3 Dylan Gibbons qualified (@54.5, he rides at 54Kg) third $26
SR 4 Dylan Gibbons again - fail - others(2) discarded because of weight
clause
SR 7 Casey Waddell rides at 51kg, her ride had 55kg less 2 kg claim, ridden
at 53 kg - fail $10

Not good examples are they?, but typical of the past runs I looked at.

The author writes ' horses often run well for 'boys' (this was then) because
the young men take their rides forward early, forward and 1 or two wide in
running, which is often a position the horse has not been in before, for a
while, and often this is the pattern of its last win, forward and in clean
air'.

I have not seen too many systems involving/including apprentices, most often
those apprentices are to be ignored, as are their rides. In reality, money
squawkes, and riders in-the-money score better than their average. 

Another way, perhaps not

Cheers

Tony



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