[AusRace] GBRG - Malcolm Knowles

[Tony Moffat]

Saintly wrote:
Interesting Tony. Strange how Malcolm has dropped out of the racing world
like that.
Is the GBRG worth a read?

Northerly
Yes. There is a lot of data in that book(let) that might form the basis of
some/more impact values - to lead us down the slippery slopes so to speak. 
The formation/source of the data is not revealed (in true horseracing tutor
style) but it would be statistics based, wouldn't it.

Knowles said in his final announcement email that the landscape had changed
- people/we wanted data but declined to pay for it and his data was
subscription orientated.
He gave the impression of being a one man band, he ran his show on the road
often, caravanning? and more than once from overseas while at the Olympics
eg.
Right from the outset Knowles was an informer, perhaps that was his role at
The Wizard, he authored a few books, numerous updates of data, a two page
spread in the weekly Wiz 
There must have been a market, everything had a price tag, and for a while
he branched out and supported superannuated punting, self funded retirees
kind of. Certainly he tried a lot of angles to get us engaged in the punt,
using his products. Those products had a Wiz feel about them. 

There is excellent data also in Trifecta Betting and Handicapping which was
free. I have used that. 

Question: Is 25 year old data still relevant? Is the behaviour of runners
then still the behaviour of runners now?

Cheers

Tony
(first 


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: Friday, 28 August 2020 10:55 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: [AusRace] Good Betting and Racing Guide (GBRG) - Malcolm Knowles -
a system

Tally Moyston 'I'm Backing These' - a system.

Snipped
Tally was on air for that couple of hours also, you could text him? about
things racing, rugby, fishing, shooting, and he was a Brainiac when it came
to systems (choosing your procedure when betting) and he knew a lot of them
by name, actions, inclinations, machinations, results, and he stated that a
few of them worked, or, worked often enough to stay in the black at least,
and what was needed was a mild progression staking plan which he got with
Malcolm Knowles Power of Ten, manual entry, and perhaps later with the
software version. Knowles incorporated equations, and more, to determine bet
size, divisor, trend analysis, 'nudging' and bet recording. Essentially once
your strike rate is established, it is entered as a value then moderated as
results arrive, and if you score less than the average the software
determines that your betting would assume the average, and do so in quick
time, and it was just these occasions that the bets could be maximized. Ok,
I have left most of the method of working out of that explanation, but Tally
had his 'mild progression staking plan' and he was rapt.

Malcolm Knowles was with The Wizard first up and crunched, and tabulated,
shedloads of data relating to racing, published his findings and wrote and
published 11 books appertaining to the punt. He went off freelance and
formed Inracing which had data scores similar to The Wiz.

snipped

The GBRG uses ratings to sum to a final score for each runner. Malcolm has
provided tables of calculations (rating values) for API, Barrier, Days since
last start, and Barrier. The book contains voluminous tables for barriers in
metro racing, field size, prize money distribution, days since last start,
pre-post to starting price conversions, in fact most common data fields are
covered. 

The various input data rows are summed for each runner. Only runners
totalling 40 points or more are considered, races less than 2000m only,
there are runner number restrictions also, . 
Eg a runner finishing 5th in Sydney has a rating value of 9, running 4th is
9.4, running 6th is 5.9...
A runner whose last start was 15-21 days ago has a rating value of 8.5,
11-14 days = 9.2, 22-28 days =9.6
A runner starting in Barrier 5 at Canterbury has a rating value of 6.3,
W.Farm - 11.5, R'hill - 10.4, Randwick 10.1
The derivatives of these ratings are not given, nor explained, but they
would be stats based.

Now Tally (remember him?) reckoned the GBRG was the best thing ever and
changed over his ratings from his own arithmetic to that of GBRG until he
had an epiphany it seems. If GBRG rankings were higher than his own rankings
the associated runner was almost always going to place, and they won
somewhat better than 66% (he said). Ok you had to wait for the race, it
wasn't every race like, but at least you could do your homework the evening
before, sometimes on Thursday for Saturday. Tally moved on from the final
summed score in GBRG. He ranked his top five or more in each race, and
ranked the GBRG top five also. If GBRG exceeded his score, and the runner
was at least rated by both methods,  this was the way to go. 

Tally is missing from the internet now, a  Google search reveals nothing and
the same goes for Malcolm and his Inracing. 

Cheers

Tony






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