[AusRace] Fitness - The Key to Winning - a system

Tue Oct 27 11:09:31 AEDT 2020

You wrote: Because a horse having its second run is, unless it was spelled
after its first run, 2nd up, but never had a first up, as distinct from
first start which is a separate class of run, as I specified - "
first-uppers (excluding first-starters)". Right. 

My use of 'first uppers' (and the authors) is a horse with history that is
returning to the track - not its first run in a race.

First uppers running in a ( distance niche) win at 30+% - it's specific as
to distance, and there are a few of them running with those traits. So is
that information useable? Don't do form in races where there are first
uppers? Back them if their odds exceed their numerable presence? Always back
those in the market because money is truth and somebody knows something (and
you don't) apart from them being 'first uppers'?

Cheers

Tony

Still waiting for the mailgirl (Vicki)

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday
Sent: Tuesday, 27 October 2020 1:25 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Fitness - The Key to Winning - a system

Tony,

Quickly, why are there more 2nd ups than First ups, but less 3rd ups than
2nd ups?

Because a horse having its second run is, unless it was spelled after its
first run, 2nd up, but never had a first up, as distinct from first start
which is a separate class of run, as I specified - " first-uppers (excluding
first-starters)".

But a horse can only be 3rd up if it had a 2nd up, and some spell after the
2nd up, so there must be more 2nd up than 3rd up.

Is trainers, owners, those in the know, them betting with information we,
me, don't know a fiduciary advantage and thereby Insider Trading, by
definition? No.

When will horse weights advice be mandatory? When people are prepared to pay
enough?

LBL

From: Racing On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: Tuesday, 27 October 2020 1:00 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com
<mailto:racing at ausrace.com> >
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Fitness - The Key to Winning - a system

Len - thanks. My reply is full of data with decimal points, and the crux of
his book, and before I do post it here I offered the words I had written to
the author for his knowledge of my actions, and his approval of those. He
uses snail mail so please stand by.

Quickly, you ask, I don't know. P'raps, if you have done the math you have
this book? If so most of my reply is based on the table on page 31.

NEW SUBJECT: Is trainers, owners, those in the know, them betting with
information we, me, don't know a fiduciary advantage and thereby Insider
Trading, by definition? When will horse weights advice be mandatory?

Cheers

Tony

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday
Sent: Monday, 26 October 2020 7:47 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com
<mailto:racing at ausrace.com> >
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Fitness - The Key to Winning - a system

Tony,

He got this wrong, at least in the context of Australian Thoroughbred races:

There is plenty of statistical evidence (otherwise called results) that
shows first uppers win races, more than expected, calculated, ****more than
their share****, more than people (other form tutors) give them credit for.

Wrong, unconditionally wrong.

I analysed 190,000+ first-uppers (excluding first-starters) in field of 8 or
more (so I can also compare Place performance, which I mostly bet), in races
I have rated since 2005.

First Ups win (and place) very significantly less than their share - 8.6%,
25.8% cf 9.3%, 28.1% for all runners, and significantly less than 2nd up
(9.0, 26.9), and even more so than 3rd up (10.0, 29.3). Quickly, why are
there more 2nd ups than First ups, but less 3rd ups than 2nd ups?

However, the market factors in the well-know (well I thought so) fact that
first ups win much less than their share, and so the level stake return at
SP of first ups is not significantly different to that of all runners.

LBL

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: Friday, 23 October 2020 1:27 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com
<mailto:racing at ausrace.com> >
Subject: [AusRace] Fitness - The Key to Winning - a system

Fitness -The Key to Winning

Barry J Blakemore wrote a series of horse racing form study books. 

I have contacted the author and obtained his permission to quote from his
books Copyright Barrymore Publications - PO Box 673 BUDERIM Queensland 4556
Thank you Mr Blakemore Ref 07 5476***2 

"Fitness -The Key to Winning" 1993 (56 pages) says this:- 52% winning
runners (from multiple runners) when runners conform with an exposed
frequency, when runners start within a few days of a previous run their
winning chances improve, markedly - I did not know that and it's in the
book. Yes it is specific and applicable to a select group but it is a
powerful stat and one that is repeated over various distances of races.

The author uses FITNESS PATTERNS to show and explain the likely capability
of horses generally, and specifically, if runners have attributes shown to
enable them to win, run above expectations, or tire and lose.

Runners, and their re-appearance at the races are categorized (simplified)
as thus, these are the FITNESS PATTERNS

1 to 9 days - simplified to 7 days

10 to 17 days - simplified to 14 days

18 to 24 days - simplified to 21 days

On up to

39 to 45 days - simplified to 42 days

Horses running on or after the 46th day are considered to be first up. First
up is a bonus. There is plenty of statistical evidence (otherwise called

results) that shows first uppers win races, more than expected, calculated,
more than their share, more than people (other form tutors) give them credit
for.

An example of how the book shows us FITNESS PATTERNS - a runner with 9 days
until its next run, then another run on the 19th day along until a third run
on the 39th day in is shown as 9/19/39 which simplifies to 35/21/7 ( see
above). Runs before the 9th day appearance are disregarded, considered to be

too far back in the form score to affect its endeavours now.     

The author then divides races into divisions (1000/1100m- 1200m-1300/1400m,
1500/1600m, etc. until races over 2100m+  are dealt with as a large group.

Nonetheless, within those divisions there are FITNESS PATTERNS/niches that
have percentage scores way over and above other PATTERNS around them.  

So in each race you have runners who had their last starts some days ago,
varying, and those gaps in the days have a value that increases, or
decreases, dependent on the time gap, and also affected by the distance of
the race to be contested. The authors research has shown, or revealed,
niches where runners are more likely to prove competitive, or importantly,
when and where they can be discounted as possibilities. Sprinters need time
to recuperate, distance runners need racing to keep them ticking along,
first uppers over sprint distances are dynamite (I said that), 3 runs in 31
days can be a good thing, or a bad thing, a great thing or an occasion when
a judgement is required - it's in the book.

Further reviews of the authors other books will be posted soon.

The Key Factor is Fitness 1997 - Barrymore Publications The Key Factor is
Fitness  - The System 1997 82 pages - Barrymore Publications The Secrets of
Class and other Key Factors 2000 180 pages - Barrymore Publications The
Secrets of Class - The System 2001 -80 pages - Barrymore Publications
Weights Right 2004 136 pages - Barrymore Publications These publications are
an intellectual investment in winner finding, horse racing generally, honest
and earnest reasoning regarding the punt. The Secrets of Class (both) are
well researched and well written. The same can be said of Weights Right. The
others are a little dated. All books hold true to the method(s) written
about in The Key Factor is Fitness. They are all out of print.

Thank you Mr Blakemore

Cheers

Tony

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