[AusRace] Fitness - The Key to Winning - a system

Mon Oct 26 12:32:40 AEDT 2020

hi guys.

i spent more time than i care to remember compiling fitness tables,
Blakemore style.

no joy.  and it wasn't marginal.

none, and i mean none, matched up to his recorded strike rates.

i tried with WA Metro Races, using a few thousand races.

and it wasn't marginal.

i'm being vague, as this was done a couple of years ago at least.

i don't have the time nor the inclination to go and revisit.

as you both are aware, i crunch WA and HK data.

BTW i don't make this stuff up.

Len, i am not surprised at your findings.

On Mon, Oct 26, 2020 at 9:47 AM L.B.Loveday <lloveday at ozemail.com.au> wrote:

> Tony,
>
>
>
> He got this wrong, at least in the context of Australian Thoroughbred
> races:
>
>
>
> There is plenty of statistical evidence (otherwise called results) that
> shows first uppers win races, more than expected, calculated, ****more
> than their share****, more than people (other form tutors) give them
> credit for.
>
>
>
> Wrong, unconditionally wrong.
>
>
>
> I analysed 190,000+ first-uppers (excluding first-starters) in field of 8
> or more (so I can also compare Place performance, which I mostly bet), in
> races I have rated since 2005.
>
>
>
> First Ups win (and place) very significantly less than their share - 8.6%,
> 25.8% cf 9.3%, 28.1% for all runners, and significantly less than 2nd up
> (9.0, 26.9), and even more so than 3rd up (10.0, 29.3). Quickly, why are
> there more 2nd ups than First ups, but less 3rd ups than 2nd ups?
>
>
>
> However, the market factors in the well-know (well I thought so) fact that
> first ups win much less than their share, and so the level stake return at
> SP of first ups is not significantly different to that of all runners.
>
>
>
> LBL
>
>
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Racing On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
> Sent: Friday, 23 October 2020 1:27 AM
> To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
> Subject: [AusRace] Fitness - The Key to Winning - a system
>
>
>
>
>
> Fitness -The Key to Winning
>
> Barry J Blakemore wrote a series of horse racing form study books.
>
> I have contacted the author and obtained his permission to quote from his
> books Copyright Barrymore Publications - PO Box 673 BUDERIM Queensland 4556
> Thank you Mr Blakemore Ref 07 5476***2
>
>
>
> "Fitness -The Key to Winning" 1993 (56 pages) says this:- 52% winning
> runners (from multiple runners) when runners conform with an exposed
> frequency, when runners start within a few days of a previous run their
> winning chances improve, markedly - I did not know that and it's in the
> book. Yes it is specific and applicable to a select group but it is a
> powerful stat and one that is repeated over various distances of races.
>
> The author uses FITNESS PATTERNS to show and explain the likely capability
> of horses generally, and specifically, if runners have attributes shown to
> enable them to win, run above expectations, or tire and lose.
>
> Runners, and their re-appearance at the races are categorized (simplified)
> as thus, these are the FITNESS PATTERNS
>
> 1 to 9 days - simplified to 7 days
>
> 10 to 17 days - simplified to 14 days
>
> 18 to 24 days - simplified to 21 days
>
> On up to
>
> 39 to 45 days - simplified to 42 days
>
> Horses running on or after the 46th day are considered to be first up.
> First up is a bonus. There is plenty of statistical evidence (otherwise
> called
>
> results) that shows first uppers win races, more than expected,
> calculated, more than their share, more than people (other form tutors)
> give them credit for.
>
> An example of how the book shows us FITNESS PATTERNS - a runner with 9
> days until its next run, then another run on the 19th day along until a
> third run on the 39th day in is shown as 9/19/39 which simplifies to
> 35/21/7 ( see above). Runs before the 9th day appearance are disregarded,
> considered to be
>
> too far back in the form score to affect its endeavours now.
>
> The author then divides races into divisions (1000/1100m-
> 1200m-1300/1400m, 1500/1600m, etc. until races over 2100m+  are dealt with
> as a large group.
>
> Nonetheless, within those divisions there are FITNESS PATTERNS/niches that
> have percentage scores way over and above other PATTERNS around them.
>
> So in each race you have runners who had their last starts some days ago,
> varying, and those gaps in the days have a value that increases, or
> decreases, dependent on the time gap, and also affected by the distance of
> the race to be contested. The authors research has shown, or revealed,
> niches where runners are more likely to prove competitive, or importantly,
> when and where they can be discounted as possibilities. Sprinters need time
> to recuperate, distance runners need racing to keep them ticking along,
> first uppers over sprint distances are dynamite (I said that), 3 runs in 31
> days can be a good thing, or a bad thing, a great thing or an occasion when
> a judgement is required - it's in the book.
>
> Further reviews of the authors other books will be posted soon.
>
> The Key Factor is Fitness 1997 - Barrymore Publications The Key Factor is
> Fitness  - The System 1997 82 pages - Barrymore Publications The Secrets of
> Class and other Key Factors 2000 180 pages - Barrymore Publications The
> Secrets of Class - The System 2001 -80 pages - Barrymore Publications
> Weights Right 2004 136 pages - Barrymore Publications These publications
> are an intellectual investment in winner finding, horse racing generally,
> honest and earnest reasoning regarding the punt. The Secrets of Class
> (both) are well researched and well written. The same can be said of
> Weights Right. The others are a little dated. All books hold true to the
> method(s) written about in The Key Factor is Fitness. They are all out of
> print.
>
> Thank you Mr Blakemore
>
>
>
> Cheers
>
>
>
> Tony
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> --
>
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