[AusRace] One leg, one eye, one ear Winarsky - Aubreys way, a system

[Tony Moffat]

One leg, one eye, one ear Winarsky*

Aubrey Winarsky was a punter in Melbourne.

He, and his brother Drayton, lived  near Wattle Park and they sold carpet in
their shop at Spotswood. They were from Devon UK. 

Aubrey, 'Lucky' to all, and probably because of his decreasing number of
faculties often sat on the jarrah bench near the ring where I worked on
course. He would call you over to ask a price and my Boss or Maree quoted
then sometimes had to query another fielder to see if there was better value
there. At least it was nearly always early and never when we were busy.

The eye then the leg went as a POW, he was sent here for medical treatment,
returned to the UK and both of them, he and Drayton, ended up back here.
Lucky reckons it was the leg, it made him walk in circles, and Drayton
chipped in with 'the land of milk and honey, if you bring your own cow and
your own bees' he laughed and smiled and he had gold fillings, and an ear
ring, which must have been comforting for the clients at the carpet shop.

The ear, the lack of ear lug, was because he got hit with a bottle at a game
in the back lanes of a suburb, 'it's where the 79 tram turns into the park'
to be specific, or not. He walked on a crutch, one, but he bought his chair
with him, a woven cane affair made by Pakistanis, with seriously skinny
tyres on spoked wheels. Mobility was the responsibility of Drayton
apparently and remember wheelchair access was not a  thing, a thought, or a
consideration then, almost nowhere.

Aubrey was a form student, he had writing pad size printed sheets with the
runners names hand written in and before their names there were eight
columns. 

In the four columns closest to the runners names he wrote in the last four
form figures for each runner, using the details in the form paper. 

Then in the remaining four columns he sorted the best to the worst finishes,
so that in a 12 horse field each column may be sorted one to 12 from a win
last start to a finish down the back. Of course there would be equals, two
or three last winners for instance, then a couple of 3rds say so in that
case the numbers did not run to 12 but to some other lesser number,
typically the worst ranked was 9 or less.

Aubrey did that in all columns, 4 of them. Those numbers had power to his
way of thinking.  The form lines may be as below.

5632 Peter

4623 John

1451 Chris

Would be sorted

3222 Peter

2213 John

1131 Chris

I have used just the three runners here, in a full field the range and
disparity of the sorted numbers, correctly the ranked numbers, would be more
descriptive, obvious even.

Next, Aubrey took the ranked numbers on each line way from the biggest,
numerically, number then summed the results.


I feel a demonstration will inform you more. This is the 2019 Cup - 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 


1

4

3

4

1

4

3

4

1

Cross Counter


1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

2

Mer De Glace


4

3

3

5

4

3

3

5

3

Master Of Reality


3

2

2

3

3

2

2

3

4

Mirage Dancer


4

4

1

3

4

4

1

3

5

Southern France


5

7

7

1

5

8

8

1

6

Hunting Horn


4

2

1

6

4

2

1

6

7

Latrobe


3

5

1

6

3

5

1

6

8

Mustajeer


6

6

8

8

7

7

9

9

9

Rostropovich


4

1

1

7

4

1

1

7

10

Twilight Payment


5

1

2

5

5

1

2

5

11

Finche


7

3

2

1

8

3

2

1

12

Prince Of Arran


2

3

6

4

2

3

7

4

13

Raymond Tusk


1

2

3

1

1

2

3

1

14

Downdraft


8

2

2

4

9

2

2

4

15

Magic Wand


8

6

8

8

9

7

9

9

16

Neufbosc


7

8

6

8

8

9

7

9

17

Sound


3

2

4

1

3

2

4

1

18

Surprise Baby


2

2

2

4

2

2

2

4

19

Constantinople


6

1

3

5

7

1

3

5

20

Il Paradiso


1

4

5

7

1

4

6

7

21

Steel Prince


8

1

8

5

9

1

9

5

22

The Chosen One


2

1

4

2

2

1

4

2

23

Vow And Declare


6

7

6

3

7

8

7

3

24

Youngstar

 

 

 

 

 

 

The above shows the actual form, and the modified form after ranking.

He did the next calculation then. He took the ranked number away from the
largest number in the column to get a runner score.  In Vow and Declare case
it is 8 minus2, 8-1,8-4, 8-2 = 6,7,4,6. The 6,7,4,6 was his representation
of the runners V & D had beaten to get to here. He summed those numbers to
get a score (this may have been an intermediate figure for an equation) and
he seemed to only consider the 4 with the largest 'result',  he meant sum I
reckon.

I can't tell us accurately what happened next, if he multiplied them
together he would get a runner score different than when he summed. This
would remove most ties I offered and he agreed.

Anyway his final choices were not markedly different to the first cut shown.
The values were used in a pricing equation.

Aubrey bet on the quadrella, then took individual runners for small amounts
with us. 

Having taken you through the somewhat convoluted maths he used it is
possible to arrive at the same choices in a simpler, quicker way. At least
the deconstruction he used showed him the stronger formlines connected to
the runners.

Each run is independent of the other, both horizontally and vertically, but
has he got some connection by ranking?

Another way, perhaps?

 

Cheers

Tony

*The name is not related to the war time propaganda person.

 



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