[AusRace] Pedro - a system

Tue Jun 9 00:22:27 AEST 2020

2 queries on this -  Saturday 6/06/2020 is the day under review, Meruake is
a large town, a city now surrounded by rivers and rain forest in an
Indonesian regency to the west (not the east as I wrote).

The thrust of the system is comparing the pre-race prices (what the paper
gives you, or the TAB fixed) with the pricing range that Pedro used. For 5
runners it was $3,$3.75,$5, $7.50, $15 for runners ranked 1st fav, 2nd fav,
3rd fav, 4th then 5th fav. These prices correspond to
33.33,26.66,20,13.33,6.66 = 99.98%

Another way to arrive at the pricing range is this: 1+2+3+4+5+6+7=28 to give
you a pricing range between $4 (28/7) and $28 (28/1) and intermediate step
would be $7 (28/4 - the 4th favourite price)

Back in the day Pedro had his 5 runners as 2/1,11/4,4/1,13/2, 14/1 and the 7
runners  $4,$4.6,$5.6,$7,$9.33,$14,$28.

He didn't dutch these, and perhaps was unaware of it, as was I, although the
economist John Hopegood did supply Pedro with a group of Log numbers to
enable calculations to be made but that was towards the end of our
association and I am unsure if he did use that method. In any event,
dutching perhaps was not an option, he, we, didn't know the tote price at
any time, until after the race then Monday probably.

Today you got the winner of

MR8,MR7, MR6,MR5

SR7,SR6,SR5,SR4

And I imagine a majority of anything else.

It 'selects' a lot of winners, backing them is the art and the double helped
there.

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: Monday, 8 June 2020 8:02 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: [AusRace] Pedro - a system

Saturday 05/06/2020 commencing at 1400 hours

Newcastle R5 winner Snazz n Charm

Flemington R5 winner  Queen La Diva

Eagle Farm R6 winner Ballistic Boy

Morphettville R5 winner Lombardo

Randwick R6 winner Wandabaa

Flemington R6 winner Chapada

Eagle Farm R7 winner Rothfire

Morphettville R6 winner Really Discreet

Randwick R7 winner Classic Legend

Flemington R7 winner Creedence

Eagle Farm R8 winner Tryzone

Morphettville R7 winner France's Boy

Randwick R7 winner Dealmaker

Flemington R8 winner Vassilator

Morphettville R8 winner Just Kappy

Eagle Farm R9 Acquitaine

That was a busy couple of hours - 17 winners and perhaps as many passed
over, at Yeppoon, Grafton, Tamworth, Newcastle, and off shore as well. 

Too good to be true, yeah, it is, but they were selected using the methods
described below. Read on.

Pedro Moss and I worked together in PNG. He was the second raconteur I have
encountered (the other was my Uncle Bill), and if he wasn't that he was at
least an anecdotist, and father of 9 girls. 

He once saw HM The Queen naked.*

In the big towns in PNG there was often a sign stating TAB which meant you
could get take away bottles there. There were betting shops, friendless
places, which accepted bets up to an hour before the advertised starting
time. It was 11 months of not betting for me, but he had a few most
Saturdays. 

Pedro got the acceptances on a telex tape on Tuesday and the final fields on
Friday and ran that through on Friday night, the printout was similar to the
race fields of the day and the runners prices (the pre race price) were part
of that.

>From those prices he sorted the first 9 in the market then compared the
pre-race prices with his own calculations, priced 1 to 9th and if there were
overs he looked at those runners with more interest. 

Pedro prices out to 9 went 4/1,9/2,11/2,13/2,8/1,10/1,14/1, 20+/1,40+/1
(5,5.65,6.45,7.5,9,11.25,15,22.5,45) and from those his percentages were in
the range 20,18,16,13,11,9,7,5,3 which sums to 102% so he had to drop a few
to get unders. Most likely he took a set against the favorite and another
short which got him 30 percentage points at least. 

By race time Pedro was pretty certain he had his contingencies sorted. He
could count on the tote prices being longer beyond  the 6's so he would take
a few points out of them. He probably always had picks 7,8 and 9, but those
shorter he couldn't count on. He was game, there were no displays, no
indicators of a likely price, nothing on the radio either, that information
was a definite no go at that time. But at least the races were on ABC, and
that is were he was on Saturday arvos, our one day off, in the pool, radio
on, footy playing, and every hour or so down to the betting shop, bare
chested, bare footed, in the moke, our vehicle of choice at that time.

His savior may have been the daily double. His win betting seemed, to me, to
leave him a little skinny, 20%, and if you lost that race, you strived to
get 30-40% out of the remaining couple to at least finish even. He plonked
down $100 over his initial bets and waited and watched. I mean your serve at
tennis was delayed so he, we, could listen to the last 5 furlongs in
Melbourne. Tennis, bloody hell, you had a ciggie going, a South Pacific
lager  waiting your return  and I'm pretty sure we never got to a third set.
It was hot and there were bets to get on, away from the place, a motel at
the 4 mile, and that choice more for the pool and steak marinade really.

Pedro was sometimes a couple of hundred up, otherwise not, just like the
rest of us, but he did manage his money and if there was a bit of it then
the wives (plural) got that. 

Every third week he took the boat out, 4 nights there, 3 nights back, and it
was my job to stop everything and do the collecting on Monday.  Pedro got
back late Friday but more often early Saturday and his pricing of the fields
began then and went until it was done. There would have been a swim,
several, lit by starlight and a record playing, quietly though, and a steak
for breakfast before the betting began again.

Our employer stopped the business suddenly and we had a few days to decide
to stay in PNG or leave. I went to a job in the Southern Highlands, it's a
gas and oil field now. Pedro went east to Indon as a skipper out of Merauke.

*The Queen in the nude bit. It was in Adelaide.They, his family and him had
a motel on the main road to GlenElg, Anzac Terrace, and the Queen and
Phillip and others went past in a motorcade just as Pedro got out of the
shower. That's it. He could tell a story, one of disconnected truths but
truthful otherwise. He needed a motel to house his children.

Cheers

Tony

-- 
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com
-------------- next part --------------
A non-text attachment was scrubbed...
Name: winmail.dat
Type: application/ms-tnef
Size: 10034 bytes
Desc: not available
URL: <http://ausrace.com/pipermail/racing_ausrace.com/attachments/20200608/cf13d41f/attachment.bin>