[AusRace] FW: PicWiz - calculators in racing series

[Tony Moffat]

The first PicWiz was a booklet, and this was followed by a DOS based system
-both of these you entered data manually.

Then PicWiz with ESP (estimated starting price) used Inracing data files to
export/import data into this program and it was semi- automatic after that.
Manual entry was still an option.

There were 73 data points of interest that could be utilized, up from 5 in
the first versions, and Inracing provided templates for some of these to
enable you
to enter and use data unique to you, that which you considered necessary,
meaning important, which acted upon the Irat score (similar to Wizards
Wrat).
Irat was segregated into groupings 100,99,98,97,96, 95-92 and <92 and tables
within the program applied corrections to Irat score depending on what data
you chose to use.
Apparently the consensus panel scoring was a strong indicator of the
worthiness of a runner, the highest adjusted Irat score which is also the
Irat 100 pointer is another,
betting the overs provided by the ESP function had good POT%

The ESP followed on from Malcolm Knowles studies printed first up in the
centre pages of The Wizard. An algorithm was developed that attempted to
predict a likely sp for all runners.
There is no simple explanation for it, sorry, but generally it seemed to
work, at least the price rankings were most often correct, the tried prices
often on the money. A series of private and public tipster polls were used,
in addition to other maths that resulted in a price line likely to represent
the order of prices in practice. Using this information in the calculation,
eg 31% of all runners firm, 61% of all runners ease, 8% of runners do not do
either, fiming runners  account for 53% of all winners, easing runners
account for 40% of all winners. It was felt, found, that once a runners
price firmed it would continue at that price, or firm again. 

The 'BettingBandido' may have used PicWiz as the basis for his selections,
and he was making $450 k annually.

-----Original Message-----
From: Tony Moffat [mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com] 
Sent: Tuesday, September 17, 2019 8:38 PM

Data for the PicWiz is still available from The Wizard

Malcolm Knowles and Inracing ceased operation in December 2013. He was still
including PicWiz prices in his data until the end.

Cheers

Tony





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