[AusRace] PicWiz - calculators in racing series

[Tony Moffat]

The Wizard Fomguide, and principally Malcolm Knowles promoted PicWiz.

It was found, felt, that 100 pointers formwise could be strengthened if
other matters in addition to their form score could be used.

It started with the race, choosing the right ones -maidens, 2 year olds, 3
year olds (with reservations), jumpers, and any race where contestant
do not have a minimum of 20% win strike rate - all of those generally were
excluded. So choose your race was the first rule

If the going was rain affected, forget it, do something else.

So you have selected a likely race, then consider only those runners above
or equal to a rating point. There is a discussion in the text supplied
that runners with a weight rating of 90 and above are the leaders. This is
something like 27.5% of all runners, and they win 51.5% of all races
considered.
Choose your base run raters was the second rule

The program, a DOS application on floppy disks, asks for runners with a
weight rating score of 70 and above. It will accept all scores but applies
penalties if
Runners do not have other factors to support them.

Each runner had information entered for it - last start finish position,
strike rate, prizemoney and other data unique to it. Each of these scores
attracted a bonus or penalty
to the base run rating of that particular runner. Knowles maintains that
place strike and prizemoney ranked, and combined, are two of the strongest
pointers to finding the
likely winners in a race.

After selecting your race, and deciding on the runners to include the
program requires some identity to be entered for the race , date, distance,
location.

Then enter the horse data, the name, its weight rating score, and other
information requested, last start position, prizemoney, strike rate,
consensus points, and time rating.
The program goes off to sort and compare runner with runner from the
information provided and returns with an adjusted final weight rating score
after bonus, and penalties, are
applied from tables built in to the program.

 The top two, those with the biggest numbers, are those worthy of further
consideration, if their scores are improved from their base runs. This is
not in the text, this information, but the 
discussion group associated with the program has advised that this is the
way to go. That same discussion group regularly reported on big wins from
quadrellas, trifectas etc.

The program has a final feature, an adjustment of the bet amount, determined
from a convoluted method and not revealed here, but the adjustment centres
around the number of bonus
Or penalties that a considered runner receives. For instance, when the field
size is 10 or less, when the adjusted weight rating on the best runner is 11
points higher than the next, or second considered runner, or if the average
original weight rating of the first 5 runners is 90 or less.
In other words, if your runner has two reward factors, increase your bet.

Conversely, if this race has 16 or more running, the adjusted weight rating
is within 3 of the next, 2nd runner, if the average original rating for the
top 5 is 91 or more. These runners are risky.

Data for the PicWiz is still available from The Wizard

Malcolm Knowles and Inracing ceased operation in December 2013. He was still
including PicWiz prices in his data until the end.

Cheers

Tony





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