[AusRace] Principle of Maximum Confusion/ROBERTA etc - a system

norsaintpublishing at gmail.com norsaintpublishing at gmail.com
Fri Nov 1 06:22:34 AEDT 2019

Where is "here", Tony?

On Fri., 1 Nov. 2019, 12:29 am Tony Moffat, <tonymoffat at bigpond.com> wrote:

> This was written about earlier. It is a way of determining if the race
> favourite is worthy of the crown, or whether another, or others, have
> better
> qualifications but just do not have the money support, which matters a bit,
> or a lot sometimes.
> Re-consider the favourite when
> It and others have been involved in a similar finish (say 1st and third,
> 2nd
> and third)
> All runners are male or the favourite is female - otherwise no females are
> considered
> There is less than 4 kg between contenders in this race
> Days since last start not greater than 29 (for any runner in contention)
> All have raced at todays track, or none have. If the favourite has NOT
> raced
> here, eliminate the race.
> The favourite is a sprinter, and this is a sprint race, or the favourite is
> a distance winner (for longer races) or it is a sprinter who won last
> start.
> (Three elements to consider).
> Principles of Maximum Confusion
> Reconsider the favourite when:
> It, and others, show a race within 29 days
> Have raced at todays track, or neither has
> There is less than 4 kg in weights between contenders
> Either are male, of the favourite is female
> Both last start finishes were similar, the same, or the favourite was
> inferior to others at its last finish.
> For sprints, the favourite is a sprinter, for distance races (routes in the
> notes)the favourite is a router
> (its last three races were routes) or it is a sprinter who won its last
> race.
> Another method, from literature, to fine down or include runners, is to
> compare the favourite price against other runners.
> (a) Divide the price of the favourite into the displayed prices of the
> other
> runners.
> (b) The resulting figures then show a better indication of the strength of
> your runner (either the favourite or another)
> Eg Seymour R8 today
> Favourite  was 4 Made Me Shiver and in this field had one advantage,
> Prebble. It was $2.30
> Another was Soaring Eagle, with 3 pluses more than the favourite, horse
> details, earnings and dividend algorithm
> in  addition it was 5 marks better on form over last 4 outings. It was
> $4.60
> - so rated 2 (4.60/2.30) and calculated as 2.50 to win
> It was 2.50 place (7 runners)
> Another was Jamaican Hurry, first on form, and 2nd on other benchmarks. It
> was 6.90 (/ 2.30 - scores 3) and 3.00 on calculations
> nd 3.20 place.
> The only other real contender was 2 Carwelkin, who was 10.30 at the jump
> (10.30/2.30 = 4.48) and not considered.
> The favourite was beaten, by better qualified runners, and although there
> were two dividends, total $5+ that was maybe the
> best that it could be milked for.
> Summary we had a scoreline of 1,2 and three and an examination using form,
> horse performance, pm and dividend shows
> revealed we had runner(s) better qualified than the favourite, today.
> Gosford race 7, using the tests mentioned showed the favourite seemed to be
> unbeatable, and so it was. It had good scores all round.
> Bunbury race 8 was a similar scenario, good form scores around the
> favourite, and it won, short. Next best was second at 1.70
> and it had form scores 2nd to the winner.
> Hope it makes sense.
> Raining and freezing here, which may mean rain at Flemington in a few
> days.
> Cheers
> Tony
> --
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