[AusRace] Principle of Maximum Confusion/ROBERTA etc - a system

Tony Moffat tonymoffat at bigpond.com
Fri Nov 1 00:28:31 AEDT 2019


This was written about earlier. It is a way of determining if the race
favourite is worthy of the crown, or whether another, or others, have better
qualifications but just do not have the money support, which matters a bit,
or a lot sometimes.

ROBERTA

Re-consider the favourite when

It and others have been involved in a similar finish (say 1st and third, 2nd
and third)
All runners are male or the favourite is female - otherwise no females are
considered
There is less than 4 kg between contenders in this race
Days since last start not greater than 29 (for any runner in contention)
All have raced at todays track, or none have. If the favourite has NOT raced
here, eliminate the race.
The favourite is a sprinter, and this is a sprint race, or the favourite is
a distance winner (for longer races) or it is a sprinter who won last start.
(Three elements to consider). 

Principles of Maximum Confusion

Reconsider the favourite when:

It, and others, show a race within 29 days
Have raced at todays track, or neither has
There is less than 4 kg in weights between contenders
Either are male, of the favourite is female
Both last start finishes were similar, the same, or the favourite was
inferior to others at its last finish.
For sprints, the favourite is a sprinter, for distance races (routes in the
notes)the favourite is a router
(its last three races were routes) or it is a sprinter who won its last
race.

Another method, from literature, to fine down or include runners, is to
compare the favourite price against other runners.

(a) Divide the price of the favourite into the displayed prices of the other
runners. 
(b) The resulting figures then show a better indication of the strength of
your runner (either the favourite or another)
Eg Seymour R8 today
Favourite  was 4 Made Me Shiver and in this field had one advantage,
Prebble. It was $2.30
Another was Soaring Eagle, with 3 pluses more than the favourite, horse
details, earnings and dividend algorithm 
in  addition it was 5 marks better on form over last 4 outings. It was $4.60
- so rated 2 (4.60/2.30) and calculated as 2.50 to win
It was 2.50 place (7 runners)
Another was Jamaican Hurry, first on form, and 2nd on other benchmarks. It
was 6.90 (/ 2.30 - scores 3) and 3.00 on calculations
nd 3.20 place.
The only other real contender was 2 Carwelkin, who was 10.30 at the jump
(10.30/2.30 = 4.48) and not considered.

The favourite was beaten, by better qualified runners, and although there
were two dividends, total $5+ that was maybe the
best that it could be milked for.
Summary we had a scoreline of 1,2 and three and an examination using form,
horse performance, pm and dividend shows
revealed we had runner(s) better qualified than the favourite, today.

Gosford race 7, using the tests mentioned showed the favourite seemed to be
unbeatable, and so it was. It had good scores all round.

Bunbury race 8 was a similar scenario, good form scores around the
favourite, and it won, short. Next best was second at 1.70
and it had form scores 2nd to the winner.

Hope it makes sense.

Raining and freezing here, which may mean rain at Flemington in a few days. 

Cheers

Tony




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