[AusRace] Manfroi Methods

[Tony Moffat]

If it reads messy try restore line breaks 

Mr Manfroi was a gambling tutor in Melbourne in the 60's. He had an office
at 364 Lonsdale Street and a class room there. 

You could learn card counting (THE thing then), any number of card games,
board games, Monte Carlo casino style games (it's in the brochure) and
towards the end there was poker machine manipulation (the working of the
handle when the wheels were in motion - pre electro-mechanical days) and the
course concluded with a visit to the border and a weekend membership to a
club, with pokies, meals, accommodation and return. 

All of that is fine, but he also had a horse racing betting course, and I
have the texts for that.

(1)Introduction and Odds
(2) Choosing the Race - his methods appear to be centred on Sydney racing
(3) Choosing the Runners - five methods are indicated - (a) discern runners
by average numbers of life time starts. (b) sort these through an 'average'
prizemoney allocation (total prizemoney/total places). Or (c) - examine the
runners last ten starts, sort the best finish in a race for 5 runs for that
runner, determine the best of the field, out to fourth ranking (or more). To
clarify, examine the last ten starts, determine the best 5 runs out of that
ten, rank that, and do that for each runner. Manfroi sums the finish
positions of the best 5 runs ( say 5,4,1,1,3 = 5+4+1+1+3 = 14) and ranks
each runner from that.

The best (1st ranking) would be 1,1,1,1,1 = 1+1+1+1+1+1 = five. This is
fining down the field to determine selections for further examination.

In the samples given I have multiplied the finish positions and ranked the
product after that to get the runner choices. It has been explained to me
that this is a stronger method of involving choices (and precluding them, if
required)
MR6 - selected 6, 2 + 17, 9+18, 14. Winner 18, 2nd 9, 3rd 17, 4th 6 - too
many runners!
MR7 - selected 5,4,6,2. winner 4, 2nd 6, missed 3rd
MR8 - selected 2,1, 13,12, 3 .. winner 2, 2nd 12, 3rd 1,4th 3
MR9- fail, selected horse 2, 3+4, 8, 9.. winner ranked 11 

The method selected the last 5 winners at Eagle Farm, 3 winners from the
last four at Randwick, 7 from 8 winners at Belmont, winners and quinellas
from everywhere, except SA.

The next chapter is (4) Backing your Selections and is as you would expect,
multiple runners, use of place, etc.

Mr Manfroi limit weight system was one of several from the time (think
Plante et al) and he uses the top weight as the basis for this. Handicappers
are dictated to about the limit weights they allot and this means a runner
gets more weight than it has earnt - 'overclassed' it is called, and it
muddies any calculation that is weight based, eg a 54 kg 5th in a qualifying
run on a 61kg upper weight means that runner needs the top weight to carry
more next start, next race, in order to advance, which is unlikely (meaning
the increase). A decrease in the top weight might mean the top weight moving
away, again.

Tomorrow 26/05/2019
The Hurdle MR2: 1,4,9,2
Australian Hurdle MR3: 1,2,5,3
Australian Steeple: MR4: 4,3,5,2
MR5: 1,2+11,20,4
MR6: 2,8,6,5
MR7: 4+6,10,2,11
Nowra R7: 6,2,12,4




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