[AusRace] FW: Introduction to the Principles of Horseracing - a system

Tony Moffat tonymoffat at bigpond.com
Wed Jul 3 20:21:53 AEST 2019


>From the archives

INTRODUCTION TO THE PRINCIPLES OF HORSERACING

(A system sold in the 50’s)

Numerical home turn positions of every horse, and the number of starters in races previously run, are given in form guides.

It becomes necessary to understand why the following distances are used in all calculations.

0 represents the lead or front of any race 1st on the turn was 1 length behind 0, the lead(?) 2nd on the turn was 2 lengths behind 0, the lead 3rd on the turn was 3 lengths behind 0,the lead And so on. Get the picture?

The last horse, on the home turn, was
In 8 starters, 8 lengths behind the lead, 0(?) In 10 starters, 10 lengths behind the lead, 0 In 12 starters, 12 lengths behind the lead, 0 And so on. Got it,good. Enthralling so far.

The reason these measurements are used is as follows:-

In every race, immediately after the start, every horse is ridden across to the running rail, so as to be as close to it as possible before the first turn, (and later turns), is reached. 

Wideness on these turns would mean covering extra distance as  horses are really forced to race single file, along the running rail, until the home turn is reached.

1 length equals the actual length of a horse, so it can be seen that the two scales of distances are based on true facts.(?)

As can be seen, the more starters in any race, the farther back from the lead will the last horse be, up until the turn, having been forced further and further back from the lead as the greater number of horses squeezed against the running rail.

By expressing any horse’s numerical turn position, as given in the form guide, as a fraction of the starters in the same race, it is at once known how many lengths he was behind the lead, and also in front of the last horse, on the home turn, in any particular race.

For example, a certain horse was 3rd, on the turn, in 8 starters and this is expressed as 3/8 expressed again as a fraction. From the two scales it is known that this horse was 3 lengths behind the lead, and 5 lengths in front of the last horse, on the home turn.

Another example , 12th on the turn in 18 starters means this horse was 12 lengths behind the lead and 6 lengths in front of the last horse, at this point.

Horses are consistent in that they commence with the same speed in the majority of their races, being either Fast, Midfield or Slow Beginners.

By multiplying the fraction (Home Turn Postion/Number of Starters) by the number of runners to contest any future race, it is possible to know accurately, how may lengths apart each horse in that race will be, when they reach the home turn, even though th race race will not have yet been run.

An example of this, a horse was 8th, on the turn, in 20 starters, and is now to race in with 10 starters. From the scales divulged, this runner will only be 10 lengths behind the lead, whereas in 20 runners he was 12 lengths behind the lead, and in the new race will be the  same proportionate distance behind the lead, and in front of the last horse (8/20 multiplied by
10 equals 80/20 or 4th) that is 4 lengths behind the lead and 6 lengths in front of the last horse. (?)

Same race, different runner who was 3rd on the turn in 12 starters and its equation will be (3/12 multiplied by 10, equals 30/12) about 2.5 lengths behind the lead, when the turn is reached.

This is capital information to know where horses will be on the home turn.

The next essential is to know how strong(ly) or weak(ly) it finished in the straight and the finishing margins.

Horses which raced the same speed in the straight were the same number of lengths from the lead at the finish.

Horse A was 6th on the Turn and Won, 0 Lengths Horse B was 8th on the Turn and 2nd, 1 Length Horse C was 2nd on the Turn and 3rd, 2.5 Lengths Horse D was 16th on the Turn and 4th, 4 Lengths

The number of lengths any horse made up, or lost, in the straight, is the number of lengths each horse moved closer to or frather away from the lead in the race to the winning post. 

The figures are got by deducting each horse’s finishing position from its home turn position.

Horse A +6, 6 length made up
Horse B +7, 7 lengths made up
Horse C -.5, .5 length lost
Horse D +12 12 lengths made up

So horses which made up or lost the same number of lengths raced at the same
speed.(A,B)

Horse D is apparently a better class horse (he still lost, however cobber)

In order to select the winner of any race, the first necessity is to find how many lengths apart each horse will be on the home turn.

For example, 6 horses will run in this race A was 6th on the turn in 18 starters in a recent race B was 4th on the turn in 16 starters in a recent race C was 16th on the turn in 24 starters yahdy yahdy

In a race of 6 starters
A will be 6/18ths of 6 = 36/18 = 2 lengths B will be 4/16ths of 6 = 24/16 = 1.5 lengths C will be 16/24ths of 6 =96/24 = 4 lengths

In a race of 12 starters
A will be 6/18ths of 12 = 72/18 = 4 lengths B will be 4/16ths of 12 = 48/12 = 3 lengths C will be 16/24ths of 12= 192/24 = 8 lengths

For A to beat B A’s finishing speed will have to be faster than B’s And C appears to be at a disadvantage having to find 4/8 lengths.

To be continued

cheers - a couple of reads and it simplifies somewhat, promise

Tony



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