From lloveday at ozemail.com.au Wed Jul 3 08:59:06 2019 From: lloveday at ozemail.com.au (L.B.Loveday) Date: Wed, 3 Jul 2019 08:59:06 +1000 Subject: [AusRace] In the most historic day since the privatisation of the TAB in the 1990s!!!! Message-ID: <002401d53129$c2adfc20$4809f460$@ozemail.com.au> New TAB bet type to fund rich new races across three NSW racing codes A new bet type unveiled by TAB aimed at attracting a younger audience will pay for the cost of the new $7.5m Golden Eagle and two $1m greyhound and harness races. Matt Jones, The Daily Telegraph July 2, 2019 3:49pm A new betting option was unveiled by the TAB on Tuesday and it will pay for the cost of the new $7.5 million Golden Eagle and two $1 million greyhound and harness races. In the most historic day since the privatisation of the TAB in the 1990s, all three racing codes in NSW teamed up to promote the new "Odds and Evens" bet type. Odds and Evens is a simple bet where the punter selects if the numbers of the first two placegetters are either odd numbers or even numbers or split, where one is an odd number and the other an even. Odds & Evens is here! A simple bet where you select if the first two placegetters will be odd numbers, even numbers or split! Plus, it has a much lower take out than other bet types, giving higher dividends to the punters! ******************************** FFS, this is Spinner reintroduced - Spinner was a dismal flop in 2003 (I made $3805 on it in 9 months, but at least it did not involve any more than writing a simple program and pressing send). -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From tonymoffat at bigpond.com Wed Jul 3 20:21:53 2019 From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat) Date: Wed, 3 Jul 2019 18:21:53 +0800 Subject: [AusRace] FW: Introduction to the Principles of Horseracing - a system In-Reply-To: <20140626125910.1J4Z0.79654.root@nskntwebs06p> References: <20140626125910.1J4Z0.79654.root@nskntwebs06p> Message-ID: <000201d53189$231a62b0$694f2810$@bigpond.com> >From the archives INTRODUCTION TO THE PRINCIPLES OF HORSERACING (A system sold in the 50?s) Numerical home turn positions of every horse, and the number of starters in races previously run, are given in form guides. It becomes necessary to understand why the following distances are used in all calculations. 0 represents the lead or front of any race 1st on the turn was 1 length behind 0, the lead(?) 2nd on the turn was 2 lengths behind 0, the lead 3rd on the turn was 3 lengths behind 0,the lead And so on. Get the picture? The last horse, on the home turn, was In 8 starters, 8 lengths behind the lead, 0(?) In 10 starters, 10 lengths behind the lead, 0 In 12 starters, 12 lengths behind the lead, 0 And so on. Got it,good. Enthralling so far. The reason these measurements are used is as follows:- In every race, immediately after the start, every horse is ridden across to the running rail, so as to be as close to it as possible before the first turn, (and later turns), is reached. Wideness on these turns would mean covering extra distance as horses are really forced to race single file, along the running rail, until the home turn is reached. 1 length equals the actual length of a horse, so it can be seen that the two scales of distances are based on true facts.(?) As can be seen, the more starters in any race, the farther back from the lead will the last horse be, up until the turn, having been forced further and further back from the lead as the greater number of horses squeezed against the running rail. By expressing any horse?s numerical turn position, as given in the form guide, as a fraction of the starters in the same race, it is at once known how many lengths he was behind the lead, and also in front of the last horse, on the home turn, in any particular race. For example, a certain horse was 3rd, on the turn, in 8 starters and this is expressed as 3/8 expressed again as a fraction. From the two scales it is known that this horse was 3 lengths behind the lead, and 5 lengths in front of the last horse, on the home turn. Another example , 12th on the turn in 18 starters means this horse was 12 lengths behind the lead and 6 lengths in front of the last horse, at this point. Horses are consistent in that they commence with the same speed in the majority of their races, being either Fast, Midfield or Slow Beginners. By multiplying the fraction (Home Turn Postion/Number of Starters) by the number of runners to contest any future race, it is possible to know accurately, how may lengths apart each horse in that race will be, when they reach the home turn, even though th race race will not have yet been run. An example of this, a horse was 8th, on the turn, in 20 starters, and is now to race in with 10 starters. From the scales divulged, this runner will only be 10 lengths behind the lead, whereas in 20 runners he was 12 lengths behind the lead, and in the new race will be the same proportionate distance behind the lead, and in front of the last horse (8/20 multiplied by 10 equals 80/20 or 4th) that is 4 lengths behind the lead and 6 lengths in front of the last horse. (?) Same race, different runner who was 3rd on the turn in 12 starters and its equation will be (3/12 multiplied by 10, equals 30/12) about 2.5 lengths behind the lead, when the turn is reached. This is capital information to know where horses will be on the home turn. The next essential is to know how strong(ly) or weak(ly) it finished in the straight and the finishing margins. Horses which raced the same speed in the straight were the same number of lengths from the lead at the finish. Horse A was 6th on the Turn and Won, 0 Lengths Horse B was 8th on the Turn and 2nd, 1 Length Horse C was 2nd on the Turn and 3rd, 2.5 Lengths Horse D was 16th on the Turn and 4th, 4 Lengths The number of lengths any horse made up, or lost, in the straight, is the number of lengths each horse moved closer to or frather away from the lead in the race to the winning post. The figures are got by deducting each horse?s finishing position from its home turn position. Horse A +6, 6 length made up Horse B +7, 7 lengths made up Horse C -.5, .5 length lost Horse D +12 12 lengths made up So horses which made up or lost the same number of lengths raced at the same speed.(A,B) Horse D is apparently a better class horse (he still lost, however cobber) In order to select the winner of any race, the first necessity is to find how many lengths apart each horse will be on the home turn. For example, 6 horses will run in this race A was 6th on the turn in 18 starters in a recent race B was 4th on the turn in 16 starters in a recent race C was 16th on the turn in 24 starters yahdy yahdy In a race of 6 starters A will be 6/18ths of 6 = 36/18 = 2 lengths B will be 4/16ths of 6 = 24/16 = 1.5 lengths C will be 16/24ths of 6 =96/24 = 4 lengths In a race of 12 starters A will be 6/18ths of 12 = 72/18 = 4 lengths B will be 4/16ths of 12 = 48/12 = 3 lengths C will be 16/24ths of 12= 192/24 = 8 lengths For A to beat B A?s finishing speed will have to be faster than B?s And C appears to be at a disadvantage having to find 4/8 lengths. To be continued cheers - a couple of reads and it simplifies somewhat, promise Tony --- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com From lloveday at ozemail.com.au Sun Jul 7 07:13:47 2019 From: lloveday at ozemail.com.au (L.B.Loveday) Date: Sun, 7 Jul 2019 07:13:47 +1000 Subject: [AusRace] Check your tickets Message-ID: <004e01d5343f$b4fc5f40$1ef51dc0$@ozemail.com.au> Very occasionally the Corporates get it wrong in the punter's favour: Being of better character than Corporates (that's saying extremely little, isn't it) I notified them. They reversed the payout (and I presume for others - unlikely I was the only one?). Almost needless to say, but they did not bother thanking me. LBL -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: image/png Size: 26993 bytes Desc: not available URL: From punter at internode.on.net Sun Jul 7 16:17:36 2019 From: punter at internode.on.net (PhilM) Date: Sun, 07 Jul 2019 15:47:36 +0930 Subject: [AusRace] Subject: Check your tickets Message-ID: <76cca4675e8c560dc1598664d3a7da4d5781d828@webmail.internode.on.net> >Very occasionally the Corporates get it wrong in the punter's favour: I got an over-payment from a UK bookie probably around 2006 of ?2000 (around $4600 from memory). It was Stanleybet from memory. They duplicated a bank transfer and there was no way they would have got it back unless I signed it back over to them, which I did do after I informed them of the error. They gave me one free bet of ?100 but what they did only a couple of days later was far more costly to me, they cut my bets back from a ?1000 bet risk to ?100. Lower than a snake's belly! Phil M -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From tonymoffat at bigpond.com Tue Jul 9 10:02:44 2019 From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat) Date: Tue, 9 Jul 2019 08:02:44 +0800 Subject: [AusRace] Thorocom Form Sorters - calculators in racing Message-ID: <000001d535e9$a36b54b0$ea41fe10$@bigpond.com> Thorocom were/are Spanish with factory(s) in Brazil (which is Portuguese) - their calculators are colored green and yellow and are small (thus fiddly for those of us with passion fingers!) The display runs the full length of the case, so not across the top but up the rhs and there are 5 columns although each line is info for one horse, you scrolled down from there, and wrote your choices down because you cannot return to re-calculate, review, or renew except *. It does save data and you re-enter caballo xx (there is a key for it) to get back to the start of the display, and caballo xx is now part of your data inclusion for this race, at this point you can continue to add data for sorting. They offer 3 ranges - (a) sorting the best from last four starts* (b) sorting the best from prize money earnings (c) weight over minimum (WOM) & barrier & last start form You hold down 9 then press enter which purges the memory - the thing seems to be on always. You choose the program you want to sort for you (either a or b or c) then chose the sorting defaults (see more below) and enter the data for a race which you identified as SR5 or MR7 or you left it at the default 0 and entered as much horse data as you wanted and the calculator sorted as if it was one big race. Not convincing yet? After entering the identifying data- eg MR7H1 means Melbourne Race 7 Horse 1 then it asks for data to sort The prize money earning requires (i) total prizemoney (ii) number of wins (iii) number of 2nds and 3rds from this it calculates the winning prizemoney (total entered * .55), and the place prizemoney (total entered * .45) - you can enter alternate values for the ratios, it doesn't have to be 55/45 but that is the default. After each entry it asks three questions 'decidir', 'tamiz', 'cont traba?' which Google says is decide, sieve(sort), more work. It goes off to sort if sieve is selected then displays the results, best first. You select the display, there is a key for that, then the down arrow, and the id of each runner and its value is displayed. The selection is based on the best rank of the win field (total prize money * .55 * number of wins) added to the rank for this runner for its place value. The horse ranked first on winnings alone may be selected fourth on place earnings - this runners final value will be 5 (1+4). If prizemoney is your form criteria it is possible to enter wins only, places only, places including wins - what is needed is a form guide with this data displayed for each runner to be considered -which is stating the obvious. It is possible to enter data for, say, the quaddie, all races, and have the sorter treat it as one race, be careful with your id entries. That's 40 runners at least, that's 40 minutes at least and there is no scratching feature or allowance, except yourself. The booklet is written in Spanish - thanks to Google translation it is known, expected, concluded or suggested that runners to be selected should be ranked 1 on place, and 1 on win earnings, then 2nd on both criteria, no more than 4 runners (contendiente). From 08/07/2019 the results are Mildura R5 - 1& 10, 5 & 11 - result LOSS - places Mildura R6 - 7 & 5, 8 & 9 - result WIN - places Mildura R7 - 1 & 13, 8 & 3 - result WIN - places Mildura R8 - 2 & 8, 12 & 2 - result LOSS - 0 place Wagga R5 - 7 & 9, 2 & 12 - result WIN - places Wagga R6 - 11 & 4, 12 & 9 - result WIN - places Wagga R7 - 1 & 5, 10 &13- result LOSS- 0 place Wagga R8 - 6 &2, 1 & 10 - result LOSS- 0 place Wins summed to (13.20 + 3.80 + 3.90 + 2.70) 23.6 outlay $36 My copy came from a stall at White City (UK) where a punter was selling items after the dogs. Ola (I think) Tony --- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: winmail.dat Type: application/ms-tnef Size: 4130 bytes Desc: not available URL: From lloveday at ozemail.com.au Sat Jul 13 13:50:49 2019 From: lloveday at ozemail.com.au (L.B.Loveday) Date: Sat, 13 Jul 2019 13:50:49 +1000 Subject: [AusRace] Victorian harness racing trainer Robert Walters in court over alleged corruption of a race Message-ID: <003001d5392e$2a735ce0$7f5a16a0$@ozemail.com.au> Quote: Mr Walters' is facing counts of engaging in conduct that corrupts or would corrupt a betting outcome There was far more money bet on the Test that Smith, Warner and the bunny tried to affect the result of. Can anyone explain why those 3 should not be similarly charged? In my opinion, the cricketers were guilty of "dishonestly obtaining financial advantage by deception", a serious crime, as they tried to illegally affect the results of the game (more wickets, more quickly, greater chance of winning) when succeeding could have meant bigger bonuses for them, larger contracts next year. Victorian harness racing trainer Robert Walters in court over alleged corruption of a race A Victorian harness racing trainer charged with race fixing, allegedly told an associate of his intention to "employ specific tactics" so that bets could be placed. Rebekah Cavanagh , Exclusive, Herald Sun Subscriber only | July 10, 2019 9:19am A Victorian harness racing trainer is facing jail over the alleged corruption of a race in which he had two horses competing. Police's sporting integrity intelligence unit charged Robert Walters, 49, with two offences relating to race-fixing in Shepparton on July 17 last year. The Kilmore trainer's case was brought before Melbourne Magistrates Court for the first time but he did not attend the hearing last month. Police allege, in charge sheets released by the court, that Mr Walters: - Drove his horse, Kash, over the 2190m trot in a manner that did not provide it the full opportunity to win or obtain the best possible placing; - Manipulated the field positions to disadvantage other horses and give the advantage to his other horse, Paddy Mach; and - Advised an associate of his intention to "employ specific tactics" so that bets could be placed. Mr Walters' is facing counts of engaging in conduct that corrupts or would corrupt a betting outcome, and use of corrupt conduct information for betting purposes. The charges carry a maximum penalty of 10 years jail. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From lloveday at ozemail.com.au Sat Jul 13 16:59:59 2019 From: lloveday at ozemail.com.au (L.B.Loveday) Date: Sat, 13 Jul 2019 16:59:59 +1000 Subject: [AusRace] "Blake Shinn's results from his last 50 rides are astounding" Really? Message-ID: <001701d53948$a660fbe0$f322f3a0$@ozemail.com.au> Inside mail: All the big bets, work whispers and bookies' tips for Rosehill Gardens Champion jockey Blake Shinn's results from his last 50 rides are astounding and he is set for another successful day at Rosehill Gardens. Ray Thomas, Racing editor, The Daily Telegraph Subscriber only | Champion jockey Blake Shinn continues to ride in peerless form and is set for another successful day at Rosehill Gardens. Shinn's results from his last 50 rides makes for stunning reading. During this period, he has ridden 13 winners or a strike-rate of 26 per cent winners to rides. He has also ridden 14 seconds and seven third placings. ********************* I make it 14 winners, 14 seconds and 6 thirds, but let's not quibble. The 14 winners have returned for $1 on each: SP (SOP) 30.6 Best final price of the 10 bookmakers I monitor: 33.2 At my normalised 100% prices: 36.0 That is you lose a massive 39% at level stake SP and that's "astounding", "stunning", peerless! In line with that is 7 of the 50 were odds on, and only 3 won. I'm not knocking Shinn, just the writer. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From tonymoffat at bigpond.com Sun Jul 14 00:20:33 2019 From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat) Date: Sat, 13 Jul 2019 22:20:33 +0800 Subject: [AusRace] The Bounce - a system Message-ID: <003701d53986$244796d0$6cd6c470$@bigpond.com> One of mine for once SELECTION RULES :- (i) research a runners 3rd last run - if it placed 4th or better (meaning 3,2,1st) then failed at its next two starts - record its TAB number (ii) research a runners 4th last run - if it placed 4th or better then failed at its next two starts- record its TAB number (iii)research a runners 5th last run - if it placed 4th or better then failed at its next two starts - record its TAB number 4th or better means 4th or 3,2,1st. View form entirely, ignore spells, DNF, F, LR, just look at the last 5 runs of the horse and decide from that. (a)Each and every runner must have had 5 starts at least, you assess your selection off the last 5 starts - it's a system. (b)If your query turns up more than 4 qualifiers, move on to the next race. Ok, I haven't researched that but picking 5, or 7 or more seems desperate somewhat, needy almost. (c) 8 starters, at least, each race. (d) no distance rule, but distance and numbers seems to work It takes 3 minutes a race, tops, when done manually - I do it through a download and it seems as quick as the speed of light, or better. 11/07/2019 results - selections should have 5 starts minimum Kembla R5 had one qualifier Eleven Eleven which won (4.70) most of the others did not have the 5 required runs. Sale R5 - 3,6,8 - 1st 8 13.50 -stupid rule eliminated this race too Grafton R6 - 10,11,12,14 - 1st 14 16.90 Grafton R7 - 9,10,11,12 - 1st 9 14.20 Dalby R7 - 4,5,7,10 - 2nd 7 23.40 Kembla R8- 1,9 - 1 1st 20.10 stupid rule eliminated this race also Pinjarra R5 - 1,4,9 - 4 2nd, 9 1st 18.50/27.10 stupid rule again Grafton R8 -11,12,13 - 11 1st, 12 3rd 13.70/7.10 Pinjarra R6 - 3,4,8 - 3 1st, 4 2nd 5.10/25.30 stupid rule again Pinjarra R9 - 2nd and 3rd picked but they were in a group of 6, so the race was eliminated from play. Summary: win 16.90,14.20,13.70. A system seller,author, composer, would tell you at this point that we got 75% winners in eligible races 12/07/2019 Scone R5 fail Ipswich R4 fail Ipswich R5 fail Geelong R6 fail Ipswich R6 fail Goulburn R8 - fail Geelong R8 - fail Carnarvon R5 - 1,4, - 3rd and 1st 5.10/3.60 Ipswich R7 - fail Carnarvon R6, 1st and 3rd but again -too many selected(5) Carnarvon R7 - 2,3,4,7 - 1st,2nd,3rd -12.70,7.00,3.70 13/07/2018 Doomben R1 fail Caulfield R2 fail Rosehill R2 fail Caulfield R3 fail Rosehill R3 fail Gawler R2 -2 1st 4.70 Doomben 4 fail Doomben R5 fail Mackay R4 1st 2.70 Rosehill R6 fail Doomben R6 Wyong R6 fail Gawler R5 1st 11.90 MacKay R6 fail Doomben R7 fail Caulfield R8 fail Wyong R7 1st 12.70 Gawler R6 1st 2.70 Rosehill R8 2nd and 3rd but fail Caulfield R9 1st 11.30 and 3rd Gawler R7 fail Rosehill R9 fail The Bounce? - it uses a theory espoused by Len Ragozin (google it) that runners after an especially brutal effort may not repeat that for a few runs. I have used a placing of <4th as the base, then sought two runs of >4 as the basis for selection. Also it is the Ladies Championship final at Wimbledon and subliminally I may be getting a message, or somethink. It failed, this system but the results don't show all the places, were there is a dividend, and time and again the sub rules eliminated winners, all runners must have a minimum of 5 runs, there must be 8 runners at least. If anybody wants it, it is yours Cheers Tony --- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: winmail.dat Type: application/ms-tnef Size: 3874 bytes Desc: not available URL: From seanmac4321 at gmail.com Sun Jul 14 04:24:10 2019 From: seanmac4321 at gmail.com (sean mclaren) Date: Sun, 14 Jul 2019 04:24:10 +1000 Subject: [AusRace] "Blake Shinn's results from his last 50 rides are astounding" Really? In-Reply-To: <001701d53948$a660fbe0$f322f3a0$@ozemail.com.au> References: <001701d53948$a660fbe0$f322f3a0$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: thanks again Len for this interesting insight. On Sat, Jul 13, 2019 at 5:00 PM L.B.Loveday wrote: > Inside mail: All the big bets, work whispers and bookies? tips for > Rosehill Gardens > > Champion jockey Blake Shinn?s results from his last 50 rides are > astounding and he is set for another successful day at Rosehill Gardens. > > *Ray Thomas*, Racing editor, The Daily Telegraph > > Subscriber only > > | > > Champion jockey Blake Shinn continues to ride in peerless form and is set > for another successful day at Rosehill Gardens. > > Shinn?s results from his last 50 rides makes for stunning reading. > > During this period, he has ridden 13 winners or a strike-rate of 26 per > cent winners to rides. He has also ridden 14 seconds and seven third > placings. > > ********************* > > I make it 14 winners, 14 seconds and 6 thirds, but let's not quibble. > > > > The 14 winners have returned for $1 on each: > > > > SP (SOP) 30.6 > > Best final price of the 10 bookmakers I monitor: 33.2 > > At my normalised 100% prices: 36.0 > > > > That is you* lose* a massive 39% at level stake SP and that's > "astounding", "stunning", peerless! In line with that is 7 of the 50 were > odds on, and only 3 won. > > > > I'm not knocking Shinn, just the writer. > _______________________________________________ > Racing mailing list > Racing at ausrace.com > http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From robbie at robbiewaterhouse.com Mon Jul 15 10:17:56 2019 From: robbie at robbiewaterhouse.com (Robbie Waterhouse) Date: Mon, 15 Jul 2019 10:17:56 +1000 Subject: [AusRace] "Blake Shinn's results from his last 50 rides are astounding" Really? In-Reply-To: <001701d53948$a660fbe0$f322f3a0$@ozemail.com.au> References: <001701d53948$a660fbe0$f322f3a0$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: <091001d53aa2$c07c9240$4175b6c0$@robbiewaterhouse.com> Well done, Len Rob W From: Racing On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday Sent: Saturday, 13 July 2019 5:00 PM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' Subject: [AusRace] "Blake Shinn's results from his last 50 rides are astounding" Really? Inside mail: All the big bets, work whispers and bookies' tips for Rosehill Gardens Champion jockey Blake Shinn's results from his last 50 rides are astounding and he is set for another successful day at Rosehill Gardens. Ray Thomas, Racing editor, The Daily Telegraph Subscriber only | Champion jockey Blake Shinn continues to ride in peerless form and is set for another successful day at Rosehill Gardens. Shinn's results from his last 50 rides makes for stunning reading. During this period, he has ridden 13 winners or a strike-rate of 26 per cent winners to rides. He has also ridden 14 seconds and seven third placings. ********************* I make it 14 winners, 14 seconds and 6 thirds, but let's not quibble. The 14 winners have returned for $1 on each: SP (SOP) 30.6 Best final price of the 10 bookmakers I monitor: 33.2 At my normalised 100% prices: 36.0 That is you lose a massive 39% at level stake SP and that's "astounding", "stunning", peerless! In line with that is 7 of the 50 were odds on, and only 3 won. I'm not knocking Shinn, just the writer. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From tonymoffat at bigpond.com Mon Jul 15 12:50:55 2019 From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat) Date: Mon, 15 Jul 2019 10:50:55 +0800 Subject: [AusRace] "Blake Shinn's results from his last 50 rides are astounding" Really? In-Reply-To: <091001d53aa2$c07c9240$4175b6c0$@robbiewaterhouse.com> References: <001701d53948$a660fbe0$f322f3a0$@ozemail.com.au> <091001d53aa2$c07c9240$4175b6c0$@robbiewaterhouse.com> Message-ID: <001801d53ab8$205766d0$61063470$@bigpond.com> 'Innumeracy' by JohnAllen PAULOS (Penguin) is about mathematical illiteracy and its consequences. From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robbie Waterhouse Sent: Monday, July 15, 2019 8:18 AM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' Subject: Re: [AusRace] "Blake Shinn's results from his last 50 rides are astounding" Really? Well done, Len Rob W From: Racing > On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday Sent: Saturday, 13 July 2019 5:00 PM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' > Subject: [AusRace] "Blake Shinn's results from his last 50 rides are astounding" Really? Inside mail: All the big bets, work whispers and bookies' tips for Rosehill Gardens Champion jockey Blake Shinn's results from his last 50 rides are astounding and he is set for another successful day at Rosehill Gardens. Ray Thomas, Racing editor, The Daily Telegraph Subscriber only | Champion jockey Blake Shinn continues to ride in peerless form and is set for another successful day at Rosehill Gardens. Shinn's results from his last 50 rides makes for stunning reading. During this period, he has ridden 13 winners or a strike-rate of 26 per cent winners to rides. He has also ridden 14 seconds and seven third placings. ********************* I make it 14 winners, 14 seconds and 6 thirds, but let's not quibble. The 14 winners have returned for $1 on each: SP (SOP) 30.6 Best final price of the 10 bookmakers I monitor: 33.2 At my normalised 100% prices: 36.0 That is you lose a massive 39% at level stake SP and that's "astounding", "stunning", peerless! In line with that is 7 of the 50 were odds on, and only 3 won. I'm not knocking Shinn, just the writer. --- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From lloveday at ozemail.com.au Wed Jul 17 06:08:52 2019 From: lloveday at ozemail.com.au (L.B.Loveday) Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2019 06:08:52 +1000 Subject: [AusRace] "Blake Shinn's results from his last 50 rides are astounding" Really? In-Reply-To: <001801d53ab8$205766d0$61063470$@bigpond.com> References: <001701d53948$a660fbe0$f322f3a0$@ozemail.com.au> <091001d53aa2$c07c9240$4175b6c0$@robbiewaterhouse.com> <001801d53ab8$205766d0$61063470$@bigpond.com> Message-ID: <000601d53c12$4b96a760$e2c3f620$@ozemail.com.au> And Mea Culpa, I F'd up. All figures were 14 understated (I woke up at 2:30am in a cold sweat when I realised), so should be: SP (SOP) 44.6 Best final price of the 10 bookmakers I monitor: 47.2 At my normalised 100% prices: 50.0 So, Shinn has performed at perfectly average Returns, and I am putting myself out to agist for a spell. From: Racing On Behalf Of Tony Moffat Sent: Monday, 15 July 2019 12:51 PM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' Subject: Re: [AusRace] "Blake Shinn's results from his last 50 rides are astounding" Really? 'Innumeracy' by JohnAllen PAULOS (Penguin) is about mathematical illiteracy and its consequences. From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robbie Waterhouse Sent: Monday, July 15, 2019 8:18 AM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' > Subject: Re: [AusRace] "Blake Shinn's results from his last 50 rides are astounding" Really? Well done, Len Rob W From: Racing > On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday Sent: Saturday, 13 July 2019 5:00 PM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' > Subject: [AusRace] "Blake Shinn's results from his last 50 rides are astounding" Really? Inside mail: All the big bets, work whispers and bookies' tips for Rosehill Gardens Champion jockey Blake Shinn's results from his last 50 rides are astounding and he is set for another successful day at Rosehill Gardens. Ray Thomas, Racing editor, The Daily Telegraph Subscriber only | Champion jockey Blake Shinn continues to ride in peerless form and is set for another successful day at Rosehill Gardens. Shinn's results from his last 50 rides makes for stunning reading. During this period, he has ridden 13 winners or a strike-rate of 26 per cent winners to rides. He has also ridden 14 seconds and seven third placings. ********************* I make it 14 winners, 14 seconds and 6 thirds, but let's not quibble. The 14 winners have returned for $1 on each: SP (SOP) 30.6 Best final price of the 10 bookmakers I monitor: 33.2 At my normalised 100% prices: 36.0 That is you lose a massive 39% at level stake SP and that's "astounding", "stunning", peerless! In line with that is 7 of the 50 were odds on, and only 3 won. I'm not knocking Shinn, just the writer. Virus-free. www.avg.com -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From seanmac4321 at gmail.com Wed Jul 17 06:57:52 2019 From: seanmac4321 at gmail.com (sean mclaren) Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2019 06:57:52 +1000 Subject: [AusRace] "Blake Shinn's results from his last 50 rides are astounding" Really? In-Reply-To: <000601d53c12$4b96a760$e2c3f620$@ozemail.com.au> References: <001701d53948$a660fbe0$f322f3a0$@ozemail.com.au> <091001d53aa2$c07c9240$4175b6c0$@robbiewaterhouse.com> <001801d53ab8$205766d0$61063470$@bigpond.com> <000601d53c12$4b96a760$e2c3f620$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: hey Len, meticulously kept records, encapsulate you and your chosen vocation. me, in Dyers words .... I strive to arrive lol i think you are your own harshest critic. if you didn't pull this one up then? the silence would still be deafening. appreciate your honesty and putting your hand up. wading through a sea of data ..... sometimes we simply make errors. some more costly than others. Len, thanks again, for correcting the record. I couldn't think of you not correcting, actually. cheers Sean On Wed, Jul 17, 2019 at 6:09 AM L.B.Loveday wrote: > And Mea Culpa, I F'd up. > > > > All figures were 14 understated (I woke up at 2:30am in a cold sweat when > I realised), so should be: > > > > SP (SOP) 44.6 > > Best final price of the 10 bookmakers I monitor: 47.2 > > At my normalised 100% prices: 50.0 > > > > So, Shinn has performed at perfectly average Returns, and I am putting > myself out to agist for a spell. > > > > > > > > *From:* Racing *On Behalf Of *Tony Moffat > *Sent:* Monday, 15 July 2019 12:51 PM > *To:* 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' > *Subject:* Re: [AusRace] "Blake Shinn's results from his last 50 rides > are astounding" Really? > > > > ?Innumeracy? by JohnAllen PAULOS (Penguin) is about mathematical > illiteracy and its consequences. > > > > *From:* Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com > ] *On Behalf Of *Robbie Waterhouse > *Sent:* Monday, July 15, 2019 8:18 AM > *To:* 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' > *Subject:* Re: [AusRace] "Blake Shinn's results from his last 50 rides > are astounding" Really? > > > > Well done, Len > > > > Rob W > > > > *From:* Racing *On Behalf Of *L.B.Loveday > *Sent:* Saturday, 13 July 2019 5:00 PM > *To:* 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' > *Subject:* [AusRace] "Blake Shinn's results from his last 50 rides are > astounding" Really? > > > Inside mail: All the big bets, work whispers and bookies? tips for > Rosehill Gardens > > Champion jockey Blake Shinn?s results from his last 50 rides are > astounding and he is set for another successful day at Rosehill Gardens. > > *Ray Thomas*, Racing editor, The Daily Telegraph > > Subscriber only > > | > > Champion jockey Blake Shinn continues to ride in peerless form and is set > for another successful day at Rosehill Gardens. > > Shinn?s results from his last 50 rides makes for stunning reading. > > During this period, he has ridden 13 winners or a strike-rate of 26 per > cent winners to rides. He has also ridden 14 seconds and seven third > placings. > > ********************* > > I make it 14 winners, 14 seconds and 6 thirds, but let's not quibble. > > > > The 14 winners have returned for $1 on each: > > > > SP (SOP) 30.6 > > Best final price of the 10 bookmakers I monitor: 33.2 > > At my normalised 100% prices: 36.0 > > > > That is you* lose* a massive 39% at level stake SP and that's > "astounding", "stunning", peerless! In line with that is 7 of the 50 were > odds on, and only 3 won. > > > > I'm not knocking Shinn, just the writer. > > > > > > > Virus-free. www.avg.com > > > > _______________________________________________ > Racing mailing list > Racing at ausrace.com > http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From tonymoffat at bigpond.com Wed Jul 17 13:49:44 2019 From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat) Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2019 11:49:44 +0800 Subject: [AusRace] The Abbott - calculators in racing Message-ID: <000301d53c52$aceb3c20$06c1b460$@bigpond.com> The Abbott is a calculator based on the writings of Adkin Abbott in the UK - he promoted himself as a tutor. The first version of his calculator is a printed page showing the quotient resulting from dividing 100 with a figure representing the finishing position of a runner in each of its last three starts. So, a form figure of 281 would be decided as 50,12.5,100 which sums to 162.5. Now turn the page over and here is the calculated 'finals' , out to three decimal places when you divide 300 by the 162.5 calculated earlier - the 'final' is 1.8 which Adkin advises is the place dividend meant for this runner off its form figure of 281, all things being equal. Abbott assists by rounding up, and down, early in his calculations so that 162.5 is 160, although he retains the three decimal places mentioned. Next to the 1.8 is the bookmaker win price, '13/4 in this case which is the win price associated with the dividend displayed (strictly 4.25/1.81 in todays money) The second version, triple the cost, is a wheel device whereby five wheels must be aligned to provide a dividend. The three outside wheels, rims, are aligned with a window so that 281 (the form finish figure) shows in the window then turning it over and reading off the other side after moving the wheel it again shows 1.8 and 4.25 in the windows there. The battery powered calculator is the latest, last, version, and the form figures are entered, as you would expect, and the decimal data is displayed. It is/was expensive - 100's when new. I bought my suite, second hand, off a shop in Newtown, this and a few other books, and a Joe Powell 3 wood (golfers will unnerstan). There is no discussion from the author about the use of the form figure as he does - 2-8-1 becomes (100/2 =50),(100/8 = 12.5),(100/1= 100) which sums to 50+12.5+100 = 162.5 although on the sheet he does state 'he has not seen any proof other than this' that the place chance can be calculated as it is, and from that the win price, using place dividend -1, x 4, +1, so 1.8 - 1, becomes .8 * 4= 3.2, + 1 = 3.2+1= 4.20 (3/1-13/4). The calculation goes close, not often, to the actual dividend, eg Cairns R10 16/07/2019 1-133-(100+33+33 =167)-300/167 = 1.80, actual 1.70 5-314-(33+100+25 = 158)-300/158= 1.90, actual 2.00 Other dividends are widely,wildly different, varying from 8-380% over. The Abbott uses celtic drawings, and a picture of himself, presumably, in robes representing a druid like the subject of a Uriah Heep or Led Zepplin song on his wheel and booklet associated with it. The calculations, defining the place price, and from them, the win approximates, does reveal a group of runners inside $10 that score as they should. Do you need a calculator for that?. Abbott writes at length about ante-post betting in their classics in the UK and it seems that is what the calculator was for, determining prices before declaration in the (several) days before the race. Perhaps it was popular there but is lost, a little somewhat, in the hurly burly of Australian racing? Cheers Tony --- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com From norsaintpublishing at gmail.com Thu Jul 18 12:19:57 2019 From: norsaintpublishing at gmail.com (norsaintpublishing at gmail.com) Date: Thu, 18 Jul 2019 12:19:57 +1000 Subject: [AusRace] Racing Digest, Vol 30, Issue 12 In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Tony, interesting but sometimes I think it might be just easier doing the form! On Thu, 18 Jul 2019 at 12:00, wrote: > Send Racing mailing list submissions to > racing at ausrace.com > > To subscribe or unsubscribe via the World Wide Web, visit > http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com > or, via email, send a message with subject or body 'help' to > racing-request at ausrace.com > > You can reach the person managing the list at > racing-owner at ausrace.com > > When replying, please edit your Subject line so it is more specific > than "Re: Contents of Racing digest..." > > > Today's Topics: > > 1. The Abbott - calculators in racing (Tony Moffat) > > > ---------------------------------------------------------------------- > > Message: 1 > Date: Wed, 17 Jul 2019 11:49:44 +0800 > From: "Tony Moffat" > To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" > Subject: [AusRace] The Abbott - calculators in racing > Message-ID: <000301d53c52$aceb3c20$06c1b460$@bigpond.com> > Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" > > The Abbott is a calculator based on the writings of Adkin Abbott in the UK > - > he promoted himself as a tutor. > > The first version of his calculator is a printed page showing the quotient > resulting from dividing 100 with a figure > representing the finishing position of a runner in each of its last three > starts. So, a form figure of 281 would be > decided as 50,12.5,100 which sums to 162.5. Now turn the page over and here > is the calculated 'finals' , out to three decimal places > when you divide 300 by the 162.5 calculated earlier - the 'final' is 1.8 > which Adkin advises is the place dividend meant for > this runner off its form figure of 281, all things being equal. Abbott > assists by rounding up, and down, early in his calculations > so that 162.5 is 160, although he retains the three decimal places > mentioned. Next to the 1.8 is the bookmaker win price, '13/4 in this case > which is the win price associated with the dividend displayed (strictly > 4.25/1.81 in todays money) > > The second version, triple the cost, is a wheel device whereby five wheels > must be aligned to provide a dividend. The three > outside wheels, rims, are aligned with a window so that 281 (the form > finish > figure) shows in the window then turning it over and reading off > the other side after moving the wheel it again shows 1.8 and 4.25 in the > windows there. > > The battery powered calculator is the latest, last, version, and the form > figures are entered, as you would expect, and the decimal data is > displayed. > It is/was expensive - 100's when new. I bought my suite, second hand, off a > shop in Newtown, this and a few other books, and a Joe Powell 3 wood > (golfers will unnerstan). > > There is no discussion from the author about the use of the form figure as > he does - 2-8-1 becomes (100/2 =50),(100/8 = 12.5),(100/1= 100) which sums > to > 50+12.5+100 = 162.5 although on the sheet he does state 'he has not seen > any > proof other than this' that the place chance can be calculated as it is, > and > from that > the win price, using place dividend -1, x 4, +1, so 1.8 - 1, becomes .8 * > 4= > 3.2, + 1 = 3.2+1= 4.20 (3/1-13/4). > > The calculation goes close, not often, to the actual dividend, eg Cairns > R10 > 16/07/2019 > 1-133-(100+33+33 =167)-300/167 = 1.80, actual 1.70 > 5-314-(33+100+25 = 158)-300/158= 1.90, actual 2.00 > Other dividends are widely,wildly different, varying from 8-380% over. > > The Abbott uses celtic drawings, and a picture of himself, presumably, in > robes representing a druid like the subject of a Uriah Heep or Led Zepplin > song on his wheel and booklet associated with it. > > The calculations, defining the place price, and from them, the win > approximates, does reveal a group of runners inside $10 that score as they > should. Do you need a calculator for that?. > > Abbott writes at length about ante-post betting in their classics in the UK > and it seems that is what the calculator was for, determining prices before > declaration in the (several) days before the race. > Perhaps it was popular there but is lost, a little somewhat, in the hurly > burly of Australian racing? > > Cheers > > Tony > > > --- > This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. > https://www.avg.com > > > > > ------------------------------ > > Subject: Digest Footer > > _______________________________________________ > Racing mailing list > Racing at ausrace.com > http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com > > > ------------------------------ > > End of Racing Digest, Vol 30, Issue 12 > ************************************** > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From tonymoffat at bigpond.com Sun Jul 21 20:50:12 2019 From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat) Date: Sun, 21 Jul 2019 18:50:12 +0800 Subject: [AusRace] Lords Prayer - a calculation in racing. Message-ID: <001301d53fb2$1352f4f0$39f8ded0$@bigpond.com> Mr Lord was a horse breeder, a farmer in the Western District, a football club stalwart it seemed and would rather go to VFL than the races any day, son, he told me. He was big on horses racing 'over the sticks' and horses he bred, and sold on, may have had success at it. Hurdle/Steeple racing in Metro Melbourne was big in time gone by, as you know. On a wet Saturday, a particularly wintry day only worsened, or bettered, by wintry days in Tasmania, he sat and spoke about racing. Our place was beside the stand, and that stand had a caf?, with tea pot tea, and then you could smoke everywhere but we sat under cover and out of the wind, him with his Romeo and Juliet cigars and me with my Rothmans, each with a mug and me with apples and cream. Mr Lord said that steeple chasers can be compared indirectly by factoring their finish in a similar distance because the running, and jumping, was so severe any 'secrets' any runner had used to prove superior to its opposition were known. He maintained that distance, weight, then the steeples, evened things out, not that it brought runners together it at least showed their capabilities with what they had on the day, referring to weight, finish. He used a multiple 16.5, which was a number composed of many smaller corrections multiplied together, although he did not reveal everything in the composition of that number it is a factor in time representation in racing, even today*. He multiplied the beaten distance in the qualifying race by 16.5, then divided that by the furlong distance of the race, 3200 metres = 16 furlongs Then, in these modern times, multiplied that figure by .45 (point 45) to get a kilogram rating for this runner. This value represents the weight relief the horse needs to improve next start, distance being the same or similar. Mr Lord had a calculator with him on course for the avowed purpose of multiplying and dividing, then writing the results of each sum in his race book. I dubbed it Lords Prayer and he laughed, spluttered, then coughed, took a sip and a draw, another sip, and asked me my opinion, which I gave. It won. Today 21/07/2019 it is Moss Trooper Steeple day in country Victoria, so the legend lives on, great. On the same day, but in the early 70's there was nobody on course, nobody else I mean, and our ring beside the stand was a wet desert, devoid of life, for the 28 minutes between settling and setting the board for the next. My Boss was generally first, and this bought a few in, some in long coats, everybody in a coat of varying dimension lengthwise, some in hats, some in beanies, all ages and sizes, strolling along the betting boulevard, most writing, glancing back and forth from their notes to the boards. There was the testing banter first, as in 'you're a bit skinny with that one of Bourkes' which is a punter unique way of asking after a horse. Stewart spoke from the back left, the pencilling desk, 'which one' which surprised the questioner, but humour took over with Stewart stating 'no he is not riding two, the other one is in the race also' K and S Bourke were on joint favourites at 6's this day. There were 20 nominees and 16 running. The Boss said, what is a fair price, and how much are you buying. The deal was done, that is how he did his business then. There is often value out in the 'suburbs', the secondary rings we will call them, although we were the next rung down from the Rails, and often the Rails runner would come up to us, our group, looking to lay off some field money, to cover contingences, to buy some peace of mind like, he said. Then he would swear and say 'it is so quiet they are only backing 4 or 5 at most' whereas we may have started slowly as I said, but the money was spread over 10 minimum, with smaller bets on most of the rest, and it was still possible to make a book from that. Stewart had his opinion, as did The Boss, and they differed, with the Boss on side with the early favourite (not a Bourke horse, K or S) and Stu liked another one, a tiny jumper which had won 5 for him, including the last two. The Boss maintains that if you multiply the number of men on course by 150 you get a figure approaching available money. This day there may have been 120K available over 8 races, and that would turnover several times, dependent on favourites, and there were perhaps 50 outfits vying for business. SUMMARY: (i) Multiply the losing margin by 16.5, then divide the product by the number of furlongs covered (essentially race distance divided by 2 - 200 metres in a furlong) - the result is a value you use to compare all runners required in the race. It may be a weight correction, so that a figure of 2.7 represents 2.7 kgs required off the horse in the next run for it to improve. A horse running 5 or more lengths out will get a weight change like that, next, race, all other things being equal. No, it is not precise but it is another way. (ii) (*)16.5 is the figure in form assessement representing 6 * 2.75, perhaps the distance covered in a second over the distance of the race. 1200 metres / 16.5 gives a value of 72.72, a middle placed time for a good track run over 1200 m. There are values that increase and decrease as the distance increases, or decreases eg a Gold Coast scamper over 850 will be over valued at 16.5 - it may be closer to 19, also a 2400 metre Cup might be 15, or something less than 16.5. The decimal side of it is quite powerful, those decimal points mean something - again, imprecise and another way. (iii) Multiply the losing distance, in lengths by 2.75 and take away the race distance, and the resulting figure is the distance this horse ran while the winner crossed the line - 2.75*3.5 minus 1200 =1190.375, the metres your runner completed in the race time of the winner. Now divide that distance by the race time to get the metres per second of your runner. Do with this what you will, it is directly comparable to other runs, and other runners so that's a start. Mr Lords equation has been repeated several times in other texts, I mean the machinations of it, losing value times some other value divided by the furlongs. He maintains that jumping races are good races for second string horses, he had success he said, as I wrote, but he also reckoned that good off spring of Better Boy, or Alcimedes, or any number of top flight sires were likely winners in jumps races. He said he was thankful his were sired by unpopular unknowns and performed as they did, often enough. Cheers Tony --- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com From seanmac4321 at gmail.com Tue Jul 23 07:02:03 2019 From: seanmac4321 at gmail.com (sean mclaren) Date: Tue, 23 Jul 2019 07:02:03 +1000 Subject: [AusRace] Lords Prayer - a calculation in racing. In-Reply-To: <001301d53fb2$1352f4f0$39f8ded0$@bigpond.com> References: <001301d53fb2$1352f4f0$39f8ded0$@bigpond.com> Message-ID: good on ya Tony. always a great read. keep 'em coming! On Sun, Jul 21, 2019 at 8:50 PM Tony Moffat wrote: > Mr Lord was a horse breeder, a farmer in the Western District, a football > club stalwart it seemed and would rather go to VFL than the races any day, > son, he told me. > > He was big on horses racing 'over the sticks' and horses he bred, and sold > on, may have had success at it. > Hurdle/Steeple racing in Metro Melbourne was big in time gone by, as you > know. > > On a wet Saturday, a particularly wintry day only worsened, or bettered, by > wintry days in Tasmania, he sat and spoke about racing. > > Our place was beside the stand, and that stand had a caf?, with tea pot > tea, > and then you could smoke everywhere but > we sat under cover and out of the wind, him with his Romeo and Juliet > cigars > and me with my Rothmans, each with a mug > and me with apples and cream. > > Mr Lord said that steeple chasers can be compared indirectly by factoring > their finish in a similar distance because the > running, and jumping, was so severe any 'secrets' any runner had used to > prove superior to its opposition were known. > > He maintained that distance, weight, then the steeples, evened things out, > not that it brought runners together it at least showed their capabilities > with what they had on the day, referring to weight, finish. He used a > multiple 16.5, which was a number composed of many smaller corrections > multiplied together, although he did not reveal everything in the > composition of that number it is a factor in time representation in racing, > even today*. > > He multiplied the beaten distance in the qualifying race by 16.5, then > divided that by the furlong distance of the race, 3200 metres = 16 furlongs > Then, in these modern times, multiplied that figure by .45 (point 45) to > get > a kilogram rating for this runner. > > This value represents the weight relief the horse needs to improve next > start, distance being the same or similar. > > Mr Lord had a calculator with him on course for the avowed purpose of > multiplying and dividing, then writing the results of > each sum in his race book. > > I dubbed it Lords Prayer and he laughed, spluttered, then coughed, took a > sip and a draw, another sip, and asked me my opinion, which I gave. It > won. > > Today 21/07/2019 it is Moss Trooper Steeple day in country Victoria, so the > legend lives on, great. > > On the same day, but in the early 70's there was nobody on course, nobody > else I mean, and our ring beside the stand was a wet desert, devoid of > life, > for the 28 minutes between settling and setting the board for the next. > > My Boss was generally first, and this bought a few in, some in long coats, > everybody in a coat of varying dimension lengthwise, some in hats, some in > beanies, > all ages and sizes, strolling along the betting boulevard, most writing, > glancing back and forth from their notes to the boards. > > There was the testing banter first, as in 'you're a bit skinny with that > one > of Bourkes' which is a punter unique way of asking after a horse. > Stewart spoke from the back left, the pencilling desk, 'which one' which > surprised the questioner, but humour took over with Stewart stating 'no he > is not riding two, the other one is in the race also' > > K and S Bourke were on joint favourites at 6's this day. There were 20 > nominees and 16 running. > > The Boss said, what is a fair price, and how much are you buying. The deal > was done, that is how he did his business then. There is often value out in > the 'suburbs', the secondary rings we will call them, although we were the > next rung down from the Rails, and often the Rails runner would come up to > us, our group, looking to lay off some field money, to cover contingences, > to buy some peace of mind like, he said. Then he would swear and say 'it is > so quiet they are only backing 4 or 5 at most' whereas we may have started > slowly as I said, but the money was spread over 10 minimum, with smaller > bets on most of the rest, and it was still possible to make a book from > that. > > Stewart had his opinion, as did The Boss, and they differed, with the Boss > on side with the early favourite (not a Bourke horse, K or S) and Stu liked > another one, a tiny jumper which had won 5 for him, including the last two. > > The Boss maintains that if you multiply the number of men on course by 150 > you get a figure approaching available money. This day there may have been > 120K available over 8 races, and that would turnover several times, > dependent on favourites, and there were perhaps 50 outfits vying for > business. > > SUMMARY: > > (i) Multiply the losing margin by 16.5, then divide the product by the > number of furlongs covered (essentially race distance divided by 2 - 200 > metres in a furlong) - the result is a value you use to compare all runners > required in the race. It may be a weight correction, so that a figure of > 2.7 > represents 2.7 kgs required off the horse in the next run for it to > improve. > A horse running 5 or more lengths out will get a weight change like that, > next, race, all other things being equal. No, it is not precise but it is > another way. > > (ii) (*)16.5 is the figure in form assessement representing 6 * 2.75, > perhaps the distance covered in a second over the distance of the race. > 1200 > metres / 16.5 gives a value of 72.72, a middle placed time for a good track > run over 1200 m. There are values that increase and decrease as the > distance > increases, or decreases eg a Gold Coast scamper over 850 will be over > valued > at 16.5 - it may be closer to 19, also a 2400 metre Cup might be 15, or > something less than 16.5. The decimal side of it is quite powerful, those > decimal points mean something - again, imprecise and another way. > > (iii) Multiply the losing distance, in lengths by 2.75 and take away the > race distance, and the resulting figure is the distance this horse ran > while > the winner crossed the line - 2.75*3.5 minus 1200 =1190.375, the metres > your > runner completed in the race time of the winner. Now divide that distance > by > the race time to get the metres per second of your runner. Do with this > what > you will, it is directly comparable to other runs, and other runners so > that's a start. > > Mr Lords equation has been repeated several times in other texts, I mean > the > machinations of it, losing value times some other value divided by the > furlongs. He maintains that jumping races are good races for second string > horses, he had success he said, as I wrote, but he also reckoned that good > off spring of Better Boy, or Alcimedes, or any number of top flight sires > were likely winners in jumps races. He said he was thankful his were sired > by unpopular unknowns and performed as they did, often enough. > > Cheers > > Tony > > > --- > This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. > https://www.avg.com > > > _______________________________________________ > Racing mailing list > Racing at ausrace.com > http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From tonymoffat at bigpond.com Fri Jul 26 15:51:24 2019 From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat) Date: Fri, 26 Jul 2019 13:51:24 +0800 Subject: [AusRace] The Favourite Plan Message-ID: <000201d54376$295536b0$7bffa410$@bigpond.com> The Favourite Plan Often systems are centred around finding winners out beyond 4/1. At least at 4's ($5.00) it seems possible that a recovery will occur from the inevitable draw down that happens. This one is old, and gets regurgitated each decade it seems, with a not so subtle twist sometimes. The rules have variously required your selection to (a) have won last start, and be fav today, or (b) a favourite inside 2/1 and not a winner, (c) to be favourite pre-post and on course, (d)to be favourite on course and not so pre-race. There are others, see (e) and (f) below, and who knows, there may be versions incorporating weight carried, or barriers. Barrier rules, restrictions, are so scientific in systems, although no research is given, just outside some mystical barrier number is quick sand or something The thinking beyond the selection was (a) to be or seem genuine when favourite, with the form and now the money support. (B) seems to now require the weight of money to be favourite, although others in the race may have better form characteristics. (C) just convinces itself it is the favourite, no matter what and (D) is another way of being (B) maybe. (E) is a version using the separation of prices, a short, perhaps red hot favourite and the remainder beyond 4/1 - this is one system, perhaps the only one, I have seen that relates solely to harness racing and (F) is applicable only to stable double entries, when one runner is the favourite and the other is not so popular. It happens, although occasionally lately Waller runners have caused a bottle neck, with five or so running and, no, I don't know the work around for that. Another had a race runner number exclusion, only less than or equal to 13 runners. These rules (1 & 2, below) are now applied to every day racing whereas initially they were part of the selection rules for a system that operated on 16 races only, in Melbourne and while I don't have results for that my testing of it shows it was quite good, promising covers it. I quote the rules for the second version of the system that I have, the only one with a booklet accompanying the first page rules, then 3 pages of results, and an advertisement for an overcoat and a hair product so that the user will be well warm and his hair cemented in place, interestingly the coat model is wearing a hat, and is being held by a leggy model in a flimsy summer frock, all very 60's, and it seems to be at the sand track at Brisbane, Albion Park. Buyers of the coat are eligible for 10 pounds off the price of binoculars, see the stockist for details. This version has the requirement that a second selection be supported also. Read on. Rule 1: The selection is the runner, with form, that is priced at LESS than or EQUAL 2/1 ($3.00) at race time. Rule 2: If a selection is made under Rule 1, a second selection is made from the runner which is 3rd in the betting, at that time (meaning race time) My copy of this system was donated by 'Bron', or rather her father. 'Bron' worked at the blue window in the tote building, at Flemington, on Saturdays and public holidays. Her window was the $10 minimum although they accepted all bets, $10 and above, and her window was opposite the Rails. She kept serving throughout the bet up period, whereas the yellow window, minimum bet $100, was shut, closed over, and you had to knock and it opened immediately, one win bet transaction per customer, slam, watch your fingers. 'Bron' was privy to the behind the scenes goings on with the on course tote there. There was a dial indicator near her bench which showed the payout price, it was called that, or the dividend, of each runner, updated continually, in real time. This was the on course $1 tote, and these figures were melded with holdings off course and it seemed they didn't change much, those payout prices, firming more often. The after race telex was made up here, this telex was sent to newspapers advising them the race by race results, the horse details of all the runners, and the tote price, both in dollars and cents, and as a bookmaker price equivalent. There was a lot of information in that telex, none, or not a lot of it used by the papers, the "Sun" was an exception. The telex showed the date, name of course, race number, name of race, prize money out to fourth, distance, sp for bookie prices for all runners (and a tote equivalent), breeding of the winner, barrier positions, not adjusted for scratchings, except place getters, finishing margins, weights, without deductions or overs, Judges (and TAB) numbers, jockeys, fluctuations of 10 or so in the market, and a favourite marker, an * against the horses name. There would be a few SP who would like that telex I'm guessing. Some of the results - they are not sequential nor complete, not dated, but show the workings of the system. Caulfield R2 (1)Subarmas unp 7-4,9-5(2.75,2.80). (1) refers to favourite, 7-4 is bookie price, 9-5 is tote equivalent 9/5,+1 = 2.8..(2) Fujiyama 6-1 3rd. Caulfield R4 (1)Jeffrey 1st - 8-11,4-5(1.80,1.80)..(2)Yawander 13-2,3rd Sandown R2(1)Salvo 1st - 11-8,1-1(2.37,2.00)..(2)Wakiti Creek 7-2, 3rd Sandown R3 (1) Fulminia 1st - 5-4,7-5(2.25,2.40)..(2)Attainment 10-1,2nd Sandown R5 (1)Mt Venn 1st - 9-10,3-5(1.90,1.60)..(2)fell Sandown R6 (1)Idolou 3rd - 6-4,2-1(2-50,3.00)..(2) Zambari 11-4,1st ..there was 6-4,5-2,11-4 in this race Sandown R7 (1) Grand Cidium 1st - 4-9,1-2 (1.44,1.50)..(2) Unplaced The above was in 1973 - there are lines and lines of it. Melbourne Cup Day '72 -I was there R2 - Fav 2-1 unplaced, (2) Rickshaws Luck (3rd Fav rule) 1st 9-1, (4.90) R3 - (1)Miss Ireland 1st - 11-8,(2.40), (2) Tricia Ann 2nd 13-4,(?) R4- (1)m\Maria Scotia 1st - 2-1,(2.80), (2) Redgage Gardens 2nd 7-1(?) R6- (1) Yawander 3rd - 7-4, (2) My Sabre 2nd - 7-2 Saturday R1- Bon Cherie 1st -6-4 (2) Unp R2- Yawander 1st -1-1 (2)My Sabre 2nd -8-1 R3 All Shot 1st - 1-2 (2) Unp R5 Asgard 3rd- 6-6 (2) Ridgeway 2nd -9-2 R6 Gunsynd Unp -1-1 (2) Stormy Seas 1st 6-1 Ladies Day Thursday R1 - (1)Fail (2)Fail R2 Sincere Pride 1st - 11-8 (2) Fell R3 All Shot 1st - 4-7, (2) Tauto 2nd 15-1 There were 568 races this season 72-73 and the favourite won 170 and placed 355 times (1-2-3) Third favourite won 78 and placed 223 times in 568 races. There is an incorrect calculation of the odds required, win/place, to break even. The <=2/1 winner is shown as 67%. There are several pages of results in the booklet, winning and not. This period, to me, is the golden age of systems, and certainly there is a lot of literature available from around this time, systems, methods, ideas, etc. 'Bron' often backed her favourite off the tote payout indicator, this would generally be shorter than the odds in the ring, the Rails board was within view of her place of work. Cheers Tony --- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com From tonymoffat at bigpond.com Mon Jul 29 21:38:54 2019 From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat) Date: Mon, 29 Jul 2019 19:38:54 +0800 Subject: [AusRace] Brisbane Best - a system Message-ID: <000201d54602$347d3f40$9d77bdc0$@bigpond.com> Brisbane Best. subtitled a system for betting on colts By definition a colt is a male horse 3 years of age or younger. This book, printed in Australia, bound in the Phillipines, seems to be an American adaptation of one or some of their ideas about racing here. Colts racing are a rarity. Yes, there are a lot of 3 year old males running, but a colt, with everything intact, is not often seen. There are 3 entered today. RULES (i)Selection is a colt (see definition) running over less than 6.5 furlongs (1300 metres) today on a track condition it has raced on before (good then-good now). The race today can be a sex, age, or other restriction event, or a race for all ages, sex, and a distance up to 1300 metres. I think they mean it can run in anything less than 1301 metres today. (ii) In its last race it must have finished within 3 lengths, or won by 1.5 lengths. Which asks more questions than it answers. (ii) Its last race must have been within 18 days of today (iii) If first up today, ignore 18 day rule, and the runner must have finished 'in the money' in its two runs prior to spelling. There is a discussion about the method of backing these. There are no results, no names or prices etc. The author does advise that the system picked 61.9% winners, with 5 places, and 3 unplaced. Then mentions 21 'goes' which, if you extrapolate that back gives you 13 winners from 21 runners, 5 places, and 3 unplaced - which makes it selective because this was over '71-'72. Bathurst R7 today had nearly qualified Patron Black off 288 days, excluded because of his pre-spell form (128) and perhaps its finish distance, and running 4th today at $3.60. A host of races today were won by 2 and 3yos, but geldings and fillies. Brisbane Best? - I don't know, there is a mention of Brisbane courses in the text but no other reference, and no results, as I said. This is book two in a series of four. There is a system on fillies and mares, on jockeys, on Classic racing and this one on colts. Cheers Tony --- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com