[AusRace] They're Racing - a system using the API

Tony Moffat tonymoffat at bigpond.com
Sun Jan 27 13:01:17 AEDT 2019

Part 3 of the Calculated Racing series
This was my first exposure/understanding? of impact values - from 1970.
The API was a new thing then, and seemed scientific and invincible looking.

They wrote. Sum the API values for all runners, and divide that total by the
number of runners in this race.
This is the average API

Divide the average API into the individual API scores from each runner and
record the result.
This is the impact value mentioned. Results greater than or equal to 1 are
strong, less than 1 are not (strong?)
and shows the hidden strengths of the runners in this race, a factor not
revealed anywhere else, to anyone.

I say. Is this not another way of ranking the API, often the two methods
will co-incide, ranking the raw figures or
constructing ivs? API is a useful tool when selling a horse for stud, or
racing on perhaps.

Some results below, scroll on.

Another method using the API, complicated to give it credence - Prizemoney
Using the API, divide this by the number of starts the runner has had, then
multiply this by 10.
You have normalized this runners API rating to 10 starts - all runners are
treated like this. Value A

Using the total prizemoney for this race calculate 65% of this. Total
winnings * .65.
Divide this figure by 1000 and divide it again by Value A. This is Value B
Value B represents the ratio needed (I think they mean dividend) and if the
runners price is shorter than this the runner can be ignored as a chance!

There is further writing about owners and trainers being profit maximisers,
it is highly unlikely they
 will enter their runner in a race where it does not have a calculated
chance of winning
 and it seems Value B is that chance.

Runners should have more than 4, less than 30 starts. Metro racing only,
however they claim
winners out to $41 at provincial (Vic) tracks in the result pages. 

Results - LHS (second method after normalising) RHS (first mentioned method
- the IV way)
PR 5 - ranked 2nd won - - FAIL
PR6  - ranked 1st won---   RANKED 1ST WON
PR7  - FAIL ------FAIL 
MR8 - ranked 1st won-----RANKED 1ST WON
MR9 -FAIL-------FAIL

SR5 - Fraudulent - Pickelhaube

The first part 'They're Racing' using the iv was meant as an introduction to
the use of the pocket calculator into winner finding methods.
 (A Morrison Co publication - printed and bound in Maryborough (Vic)) and,
perhaps, rare now.


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