[AusRace] Jockeys generally

Race Stats RaceStats at hotmail.com
Fri Jan 25 20:58:09 AEDT 2019

Hi Roman,
As you have said, the trainers and jockeys at the very top are NEARLY always over bet, and I think the secret to Len's or anyone's success is to identify those that are down the list, but still perform well above average and are overlooked by the crowd, because the crowd don't drill down that far. I remember Len saying he hardly ever backs favourites, probably they key to his success.
Sorry Len if I've misconstrued what you have previously written.

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Roman
Sent: Friday, 25 January 2019 8:51 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Jockeys generally

Hi Tony,
I respect the fact you have your way that works for you as Sean has his. That's how the punt goes for those keen enough to go past "pluck a duck" with a cursory ten minute look or listen to various tipsters.

The one constant I can quote is that the racetrack market is what I call "linear". I assume that's the correct term where I mean favs win more times than 2nd favs who win more than 3rd favs and so on. Thus the SP figure is linear in that $2.50 chances win more than $4 chances who win more than $7 chances and so on. I am sure we all agree that this general premise is correct in the high 90's percentage wise.

Therefore, the rating of jockeys and trainers can be aligned to this premise and their LOT or POT should give a reasonably clear picture of whether they are up to the market assessment. Where this can go asunder a fraction is that top trainers runners are overbet by a lazy public who think the likes of Waller Hayes and Weir can train every favourite to win. As most on this site realise many of their horses are "unders". Nevertheless that can be factored in.

In the file I have DKWeir 7516 runners for minus 23.8%LOT, D Hayes 4710 for -17.6% LOT however at $3 or less Weir 1053 runners for -5.1% whilst Hayes with 529 runners is -11.2%.
So, if betting all odds, as I assume you do, you would use the larger set you would credit Hayes with more points. The favs punters would give DKW a better figure.

These figures are, of course, open to all sorts of personal interpretation if I add that overall from 7513 runners at $3 or less covering all trainers the LOT is 8.1%. I am not sure but would 5.1 divided by 8.1% give a figure or should it be vice versa.

Naturally, a similar process for jockeys would find some riders of $3 or less chances, for instance, better than others. From there some jockey/trainer combos would be another facet i.e. Yendall/Weir, Allen/Weir, Bowman/Waller et al but a downside for some combos would be not enough runs.

However, all said above is just one way!!


From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: Friday, January 25, 2019 1:59 AM
To: racing at ausrace.com
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Jockeys generally

Len - thanks

Kozzi's  assertion that the iv are poles apart does not hold up here - I have similar scores to yours. I leave mine at 1.15 for Guymer and you promote him by multiplying by a hundred (de-decimate?) to get 115 (I guess).

I wanted a score in the here and now and that is how/why I came to derive the iv, it is contemporaneous with other riders in this race, their presence affects its score somewhat, a little, and never majorly. It is not uniquely mine, by the way. It involves the use of all the placings, I had included the win record only, then added second place(s) to see how that ran and have reverted to this input now.

My calculations are in the mould of 'ok, what can you do', looking forward, and others can be described as 'look what I done'.

The inclusion of performance at price bands might be the best but I don't have that data, the prices of past endeavors.  I can access it, the prices, but choose not to manually enter it, and who would do that.

Yes, I do iv for jockeys (as you know) and also trainer, horse, distance and form and multiply these to get a value for each runner - highest is best.

Form is a two part process. I involve their last 4 runs by multiplying the places together, remove the worst result, then rank that - this appears to be strong information, and has always been.

As a factor in a weight rating process used, I again involve their places but this time I start from a base of 9 (the worst there can be) then subtract each succeeding run from the previous product until I get a score from which I can calculate a rating to win. So 6214, comes out as -3,-4,-1,3 and when summed this is -3+-4+-1+3 = -5. The -3(minus three) came from 6-9 = -3, the -4 (minus 4) came from 6-2 = -4, the -1 (minus 1) came from 2-1 =-1, and the (+)3 came from 4 minus 1 = +3. The -5 for this runner, and the calculated scores for all runners is then multiplied by 1.5 to give a weight rating variation and this product is then added to the limit weight for this race and the allocated weight deducted from that. The best result, the highest/biggest number resulting from that is considered the best for this race, and you can zero that against the other calculated weights to sort out the weight rated best ranking.

I use a variation of this method in my own punting, having streamlined a few of the calculations, but the principles are the same, and the selections also. I back more than one runner in each chosen race, often a quinella now, and for several years, with a saver on some of the quinella inclusions.

I don't use or include the iv selections in my punting yet, I may do soon, and include it here only for information and comment.




From: ausrace-bounces at ausrace.com [mailto:ausrace-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Nick at Twonix

Sent: Thursday, 5 November 2015 1:29 PM

To: 'AusRace Mailing List' <ausrace at ausrace.com>; 'L.B.Loveday'

<lloveday at ozemail.com.au>

Subject: Re: [AusRace] Michelle Payne

I did an analysis of 271 K Aus races rides over last 2-3 years and discovered that Male jockeys have a 2% better strike rate and a 3% better A2E (think POT betting to prices).

However Apprentices ( both Male and Female) have the same Strike Rate and A2E . Licensed Male jockeys have a 6% better A2E compared to Female jockeys.

Category              Rides                   Wins    S/Rate  ExpW


Aus Races                271,662         35,340  13%       40,474  -13%

   Female                    40,478          4,626    11%       5,448    -15%

      Apprentice          21,840          2,549    12%       2,930    -13%

      Licensed              18,638          2,077    11%       2,518    -18%

   Male                       231,184        30,714  13%       35,026  -12%

     Apprentice           54,329          6,789    12%       7,840    -13%

     Licensed              176,855         23,925  14%       27,186  -12%


Len, I was able to distinguish Female jockeys in AAP data as they all start with "Ms ". I am assuming that MS Dhoni doesn't ride in Aus :-)

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday
Sent: Tuesday, January 22, 2019 9:50 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Jockeys generally

"Raw wins and wins and placings" don't mean much in absence of prices - it's easy to back winners; just back every runner at 1/1 or less and you'll back around 56% of winners, and "just" lose about 5.5%.

Nor is just looking at past returns enough - factors such as those you list, and eg, track, trainer should be considered.

Here's a simplistic look at some figures that could be used:

Considering the last 1000 rides for jockeys who have had at least 1000 rides in the past 14 years (a somewhat different picture arises if only considering since the advent of SOP rather than traditional SP as SOP markets have lower market%s, especially away from Sydney/Melbourne tracks):

Best returns @ SP:

SThornton       101
MJWalker        103
WD'Avila        103
CParnham        104
VWong           104
DMoor           105
PWells          105
DWBallard       107
SFawke          113
SGuymer         115
JOliver         117

Considering only rides on horses "in the market" - gets rid of outliers like 125/1 winners:

JPStanley       100
JPracey-Holm    100
JTaylor         100
MWeir           100
RFradd          100
RonStewart      100
KWalters        102
SLisnyy         102
LJMeech         103
TPannell        103
CGallagher      104
RMaloney        106
CHall           107
BWerner         108
DWBallard       108
JLyon           109
PWells          109
SThornton       109
CNutman         110
VBolozhinsky    112

Worst returns @SP:

LGHenry          21
JeffKehoe        31
DPitomac         33
TJeffries        33
SBayliss         34
JMissen          36
MJStephens       37
ABadger          38
NRose            38
SStarley         38
ECockram         39
JKeating         39
MHackett         39
RYetimova        39
SParnham         39

Considering only rides on horses "in the market" (as I've previously said LGHenry is in a class of her own):

LGHenry          27
MJStephens       32
SBayliss         36
CBryen           41
JMissen          43
SGalvin          45
SStarley         45
ABadger          46
DPitomac         46
BPowell          47
MHackett         47
SParnham         47
BStower          48
PaulPayne        49
CQuilty          50

The big gaps -  All  "in market"

SFawke          113     79
WD'Avila        103     75
MJWalker        103     76
JOliver         117     91
BMertens         88     63

JTaylor          69    100
NPunch           60     95
JeffKehoe        31     72
SLisnyy          61    102
CHall            66    107
VBolozhinsky     70    112

From: Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com<mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com>> On Behalf Of Roman
Sent: Monday, 21 January 2019 9:34 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com<mailto:racing at ausrace.com>>; tonymoffat at bigpond.com<mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Jockeys generally

Hi all,
The fascination of it all is that two raters could have the same jockey literally poles apart depending on criterias chosen.

I have never rated jockeys nor trainers as I wonder if there is all that much between a number of them at the top level. If the SP figures is a solid determinant of the overall structure of horse racing does it not figure those jockeys that ride well on well fancied horses are giving the horses the chance of winning the market determines. Say Jockey A has 100 rides in races in town on favs and scores 35% of the time is he not a fraction better than Jockey B who rides 32%. So the next time the two jockeys meet on say favs at 2/1 and 9/4 (close) but the 32% jockey rides an on pacer and the 35% jockey rides a chronic get back type where does the ratings look now. It would be best to rate them all on their ability with leaders, on pacers, mid fielders and get back types and another set of figures comes up far more accurate, imho, than just a raw wins and wins and placings.

I look forward to Len's reply.

Roman Koz

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday
Sent: Monday, January 21, 2019 6:12 PM
To: tonymoffat at bigpond.com<mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com>; racing at ausrace.com<mailto:racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: [AusRace] Jockeys generally


Did not get to me and I just saw it in the archives - a very different rating method to mine; I'll evaluate and comment anon.


790*150-93-96 is the revealed racing stat for Linda Meech tomorrow - to
expand this Ms Leech has had 790 rides for 150 wins in the time frame
covered by this stat. My IV for that is 1.4, essentially she is 40% advanced
on some others in this race.

No rider gets less than 1, although the calculation is often less than
that, John Keating has .6 (scores a one in the scheme). Why? - he is on a
horse in the race and Bradbury's have happened, although I use the 1 for
statistical pureness, and to get rid of some decimals. To be factual, off a
calculation, Keating is somewhere like 80% more unlikely of producing a good
ride than Meech - he has 395*17-25-33 and is .6 against Meech at 1.4 (1.4 -
.6 is the basis of the claim for 80%).

Jason Maskiell is also on 1.4 in this race, off 347*54-46-41. The factor is
0.300552251 (the average of all jockeys riding) and my fall back value is
.31 - if a jockey can't be rated (the data is missing e.g.) then I assign
that value to it early in the calculation.

Roger Biggs wrote that he used .2595, which may be the statistical base of
all jockey placings across many rides. This has changed somewhat, there is a
jockey db. on RB Ratings. I am unaware of another method to rate and rank
jockeys against all their rides. They can only ride one horse in a race so
that the iv concocted from a large number of rides seems to be correct, and
I total all the rides for all jockeys in the race then divide that into all
the places achieved by all the jockeys, and from that sub-total I
individually determine an iv.

There is a place system for ranking jockeys when on favorites, but that is
not the jockey at all. Another time perhaps. Who likes, or wants, dividends
in the sub $2 range, most of us really.

This upcoming race has riders which have achieved 4708 rides totally under
the period of review, and of those rides those riders scored, placed, in
1415. So, 1415/4708 = .300552251 is the factor to be used. Individually
Keating has 395*17-25-33 (17+25+33/395 = .1898734) and this product is again
divided by the total score .3005522512 to give the score of .6. These
numbers seem minimal, mickey mouse almost, but are a significant part of the
overall stat picture

Trainers may have two or more runners in the race. I score them the same as
jockeys, total rides into total places (123) and develop a iv score from

Involving riders and trainers, getting a score from them combined, I
multiply their ivs and work with the product, ranking that.
Meech 1.4, trainer 1.3 (1.4 * 1.3 = 1.82)
Keating 1, trainer 1 (1 * 1 =1) actually .6 * .1. The trainer is yet to win
a race
Maskiell 1.4, trainer 1 (1.4 * 1 = 1.4.
Dylan Dunn = 1.1

There is some upside to Linda Meech ability, trainer ability.
This is R2 Kyneton tomorrow, a maiden and I'm not betting
in it, nor do I suggest you do.

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