[AusRace] Jockeys generally

Wed Jan 23 08:58:17 AEDT 2019

Ascot Only Pre 2018 2018 Index Up
Rider Actual Expect A2E Actual Expect A2E Base Pre
WILLIAM PIKE 471 520 0.9 64 59 1.1 1.2 Up
PAUL HARVEY 219 235 0.9 7 10 0.7 0.7 Down
PATRICK CARBERY 183 215 0.9 14 25 0.6 0.7 Down
PETER KNUCKEY 173 248 0.7 6 7 0.8 1.2 Up
SHAUN O'DONNELL 173 179 1 15 13 1.1 1.2 Up
JASON WHITING 173 217 0.8 3 12 0.2 0.3 Down
TROY TURNER 172 199 0.9 4 9 0.5 0.5 Down
STEVEN PARNHAM 154 193 0.8 7 14 0.5 0.6 Down
JARRAD NOSKE 145 181 0.8 33 21 1.6 2.0 Up
JASON BROWN 140 179 0.8 15 9 1.6 2.1 Up
SHAUN MC GRUDDY 111 146 0.8 15 34 0.4 0.6 Down
PETER HALL 76 81 0.9 4 16 0.2 0.3 Down
RYAN HILL 73 70 1 1 4 0.3 0.3 Down
ALAN KENNEDY 72 68 1.1 11 7 1.7 1.6 Up
DANIEL STAECK 70 112 0.6 14 11 1.3 2.0 Up
CHRIS PARNHAM 66 67 1 31 25 1.3 1.3 Up
AARON MITCHELL 63 60 1 7 7 0.9 0.9 Down
LUCY WARWICK 59 46 1.3 10 11 0.9 0.7 Down
JERRY NOSKE 57 53 1.1 4 2 1.6 1.5 Up
JOSEPH AZZOPARDI 54 76 0.7 17 16 1.0 1.5 Up
CLINT JOHNSTON-PORTER 47 47 1 15 13 1.2 1.2 Up
GLENN SMITH 47 58 0.8 3 4 0.7 0.9 Down
CRAIG STAPLES 44 50 0.9 5 5 1.0 1.2 Up
LUCAS CAMILLERI 39 62 0.6 1 1 0.7 1.1 Up
MITCHELL PATEMAN 30 29 1 10 6 1.8 1.7 Up
RANDY TAN 25 51 0.5 1 2 0.5 1.0 Up
DAMIAN LANE 23 48 0.5 3 2 1.7 3.5 Up
DAMIEN OLIVER 12 12 1 1 1 1.6 1.6 Up
KATE FITZGERALD 7 4 1.6 1 1 0.9 0.6 Down
ANDREW CASTLE 7 9 0.8 3 7 0.5 0.6 Down
KATE WITTEN 7 7 1 3 5 0.6 0.6 Down
MATTHIEU AUTIER 6 8 0.7 2 2 1.2 1.6 Up
TAYLA STONE 5 7 0.7 16 12 1.4 1.9 Up
FIONA BELL 1 5 0.2 1 2 0.6 3.3 Up
BEN ALLEN 1 1 0.8 1 1 1.2 1.5 Up
Heres another order ..... rgds Sean

On Mon, Jan 21, 2019 at 8:34 PM Roman <kozza1950 at bigpond.com> wrote:

> Hi all,
>
> The fascination of it all is that two raters could have the same jockey
> literally poles apart depending on criterias chosen.
>
>
>
> I have never rated jockeys nor trainers as I wonder if there is all that
> much between a number of them at the top level. If the SP figures is a
> solid determinant of the overall structure of horse racing does it not
> figure those jockeys that ride well on well fancied horses are giving the
> horses the chance of winning the market determines. Say Jockey A has 100
> rides in races in town on favs and scores 35% of the time is he not a
> fraction better than Jockey B who rides 32%. So the next time the two
> jockeys meet on say favs at 2/1 and 9/4 (close) but the 32% jockey rides an
> on pacer and the 35% jockey rides a chronic get back type where does the
> ratings look now. It would be best to rate them all on their ability with
> leaders, on pacers, mid fielders and get back types and another set of
> figures comes up far more accurate, imho, than just a raw wins and wins and
> placings.
>
>
>
> I look forward to Len’s reply.
>
>
>
> Roman Koz
>
>
>
> *From:* Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] *On Behalf Of *
> L.B.Loveday
> *Sent:* Monday, January 21, 2019 6:12 PM
> *To:* tonymoffat at bigpond.com; racing at ausrace.com
> *Subject:* [AusRace] Jockeys generally
>
>
>
> Tony,
>
>
>
> Did not get to me and I just saw it in the archives - a very different
> rating method to mine; I'll evaluate and comment anon.
>
>
>
> LBL
>
>
>
>
>
> 790*150-93-96 is the revealed racing stat for Linda Meech tomorrow - to
>
> expand this Ms Leech has had 790 rides for 150 wins in the time frame
>
> covered by this stat. My IV for that is 1.4, essentially she is 40%
> advanced
>
> on some others in this race.
>
>
>
> No rider gets less than 1, although the calculation is often less than
>
> that, John Keating has .6 (scores a one in the scheme). Why? - he is on a
>
> horse in the race and Bradbury's have happened, although I use the 1 for
>
> statistical pureness, and to get rid of some decimals. To be factual, off a
>
> calculation, Keating is somewhere like 80% more unlikely of producing a
> good
>
> ride than Meech - he has 395*17-25-33 and is .6 against Meech at 1.4 (1.4 -
>
> .6 is the basis of the claim for 80%).
>
>
>
> Jason Maskiell is also on 1.4 in this race, off 347*54-46-41. The factor is
>
> 0.300552251 (the average of all jockeys riding) and my fall back value is
>
> .31 - if a jockey can't be rated (the data is missing e.g.) then I assign
>
> that value to it early in the calculation.
>
>
>
> Roger Biggs wrote that he used .2595, which may be the statistical base of
>
> all jockey placings across many rides. This has changed somewhat, there is
> a
>
> jockey db. on RB Ratings. I am unaware of another method to rate and rank
>
> jockeys against all their rides. They can only ride one horse in a race so
>
> that the iv concocted from a large number of rides seems to be correct, and
>
> I total all the rides for all jockeys in the race then divide that into all
>
> the places achieved by all the jockeys, and from that sub-total I
>
> individually determine an iv.
>
>
>
> There is a place system for ranking jockeys when on favorites, but that is
>
> not the jockey at all. Another time perhaps. Who likes, or wants, dividends
>
> in the sub $2 range, most of us really.
>
>
>
> This upcoming race has riders which have achieved 4708 rides totally under
>
> the period of review, and of those rides those riders scored, placed, in
>
> 1415. So, 1415/4708 = .300552251 is the factor to be used. Individually
>
> Keating has 395*17-25-33 (17+25+33/395 = .1898734) and this product is
> again
>
> divided by the total score .3005522512 to give the score of .6. These
>
> numbers seem minimal, mickey mouse almost, but are a significant part of
> the
>
> overall stat picture
>
>
>
> Trainers may have two or more runners in the race. I score them the same as
>
> jockeys, total rides into total places (123) and develop a iv score from
>
> that.
>
>
>
> Involving riders and trainers, getting a score from them combined, I
>
> multiply their ivs and work with the product, ranking that.
>
> Meech 1.4, trainer 1.3 (1.4 * 1.3 = 1.82)
>
> Keating 1, trainer 1 (1 * 1 =1) actually .6 * .1. The trainer is yet to win
>
> a race
>
> Maskiell 1.4, trainer 1 (1.4 * 1 = 1.4.
>
> Dylan Dunn = 1.1
>
>
>
> There is some upside to Linda Meech ability, trainer ability.
>
> This is R2 Kyneton tomorrow, a maiden and I'm not betting
>
> in it, nor do I suggest you do.
>
>
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