[AusRace] Jockeys generally

Tue Jan 22 23:48:26 AEDT 2019

Hi again Sean,

Again I am wondering?

Surely L Warwick has had rides at 1800m plus? Where are they?

I look at Pike. Why not bunch 2100 to 2200m together?

Do you rate jockeys based on the exact distance starts?

Confused Roman

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of sean mclaren
Sent: Tuesday, January 22, 2019 5:48 PM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Jockeys generally

JockeyA2ETable
Ascot

Rider

Distance

A

E

NoOfRides

A2E

DAMIAN LANE

1000

4

4.81

166

0.83

DAMIAN LANE

1200

8

23.88

218

0.34

DAMIAN LANE

1400

2

7.31

193

0.27

DANIEL STAECK

1000

5

22.00

193

0.23

DANIEL STAECK

1100

4

8.20

84

0.49

DANIEL STAECK

1200

16

25.94

316

0.62

DANIEL STAECK

1400

22

28.44

452

0.77

DANIEL STAECK

1500

3

5.33

55

0.56

DANIEL STAECK

1600

14

14.58

260

0.96

DANIEL STAECK

1800

11

10.97

96

1.00

DANIEL STAECK

2200

3

7.26

67

0.41

LUCY WARWICK

1000

20

12.41

164

1.61

LUCY WARWICK

1200

13

10.34

88

1.26

LUCY WARWICK

1400

6

7.25

73

0.83

LUCY WARWICK

1600

11

6.43

176

1.71

PETER HALL

1000

4

6.23

54

0.64

PETER HALL

1100

5

11.21

167

0.45

PETER HALL

1200

10

10.86

123

0.92

PETER HALL

1400

16

11.39

146

1.40

PETER HALL

1600

20

25.01

232

0.80

PETER HALL

1800

5

9.15

72

0.55

PETER HALL

2150

1

5.39

130

0.19

PETER HALL

2200

9

6.90

54

1.30

PETER KNUCKEY

1000

27

69.28

474

0.39

PETER KNUCKEY

1100

26

38.30

313

0.68

PETER KNUCKEY

1200

44

42.47

376

1.04

PETER KNUCKEY

1400

32

31.49

312

1.02

PETER KNUCKEY

1500

10

7.87

87

1.27

PETER KNUCKEY

1600

14

43.37

295

0.32

PETER KNUCKEY

1800

11

9.31

109

1.18

PETER KNUCKEY

2200

10

6.70

70

1.49

WILLIAM PIKE

1000

45

57.42

408

0.78

WILLIAM PIKE

1100

46

86.10

630

0.53

WILLIAM PIKE

1200

115

105.53

695

1.09

WILLIAM PIKE

1400

104

101.94

623

1.02

WILLIAM PIKE

1500

30

31.23

164

0.96

WILLIAM PIKE

1600

85

77.78

541

1.09

WILLIAM PIKE

1800

38

39.50

196

0.96

WILLIAM PIKE

2100

16

10.36

50

1.54

WILLIAM PIKE

2150

2

6.87

138

0.29

WILLIAM PIKE

2200

40

50.25

277

0.80

Heres another extract of the SAME jocks in WA. The right hand column is the ROI for a $1.

No caveat, these rides include ALL in the market. 

On Tue, 22 Jan 2019 15:38 sean mclaren <seanmac4321 at gmail.com wrote:

JockeyA2ETable
AscotTrack

Rider

Distance

Actual

Expected

Rides

A2E

DAMIAN LANE

1200

7

22.25

178

0.31

DANIEL STAECK

1000

3

20.40

157

0.15

DANIEL STAECK

1200

12

20.40

206

0.59

DANIEL STAECK

1400

19

19.39

222

0.98

DANIEL STAECK

1600

11

7.68

59

1.43

DANIEL STAECK

1800

9

8.61

48

1.05

LUCY WARWICK

1000

19

11.83

150

1.61

LUCY WARWICK

1200

10

8.98

53

1.11

PETER HALL

1200

9

8.12

56

1.11

PETER HALL

1400

15

7.37

59

2.04

PETER HALL

1600

18

22.28

184

0.81

PETER HALL

1800

4

7.88

45

0.51

PETER KNUCKEY

1000

26

64.45

381

0.40

PETER KNUCKEY

1100

26

35.25

253

0.74

PETER KNUCKEY

1200

36

34.01

207

1.06

PETER KNUCKEY

1400

27

24.39

159

1.11

PETER KNUCKEY

1600

11

40.31

214

0.27

PETER KNUCKEY

1800

9

7.44

60

1.21

WILLIAM PIKE

1000

37

48.42

332

0.76

WILLIAM PIKE

1100

41

80.55

571

0.51

WILLIAM PIKE

1200

96

86.60

434

1.11

WILLIAM PIKE

1400

89

86.57

487

1.03

WILLIAM PIKE

1500

26

26.37

127

0.99

WILLIAM PIKE

1600

79

70.15

474

1.13

WILLIAM PIKE

1800

33

35.14

159

0.94

WILLIAM PIKE

2200

38

45.77

246

0.83

Here an extract of a few jocks in WA. The right hand column is the ROI for a $1.

Caveat is these rides only include the first 5 in the market. Primitive means of extracting

the outliers.

Essentially the over round is taken out and the markets reset to 100%. >From there an expected 

wins figure is arrived at. And ultimately checked against the actual. These have pulled at random.

The first couple are interesting. Remembering these are in the first 5.

On Mon, Jan 21, 2019 at 5:13 PM L.B.Loveday <lloveday at ozemail.com.au> wrote:

Tony,

Did not get to me and I just saw it in the archives - a very different rating method to mine; I'll evaluate and comment anon.

LBL

790*150-93-96 is the revealed racing stat for Linda Meech tomorrow - to

expand this Ms Leech has had 790 rides for 150 wins in the time frame

covered by this stat. My IV for that is 1.4, essentially she is 40% advanced

on some others in this race.

No rider gets less than 1, although the calculation is often less than

that, John Keating has .6 (scores a one in the scheme). Why? - he is on a

horse in the race and Bradbury's have happened, although I use the 1 for

statistical pureness, and to get rid of some decimals. To be factual, off a

calculation, Keating is somewhere like 80% more unlikely of producing a good

ride than Meech - he has 395*17-25-33 and is .6 against Meech at 1.4 (1.4 -

.6 is the basis of the claim for 80%).

Jason Maskiell is also on 1.4 in this race, off 347*54-46-41. The factor is

0.300552251 (the average of all jockeys riding) and my fall back value is

.31 - if a jockey can't be rated (the data is missing e.g.) then I assign

that value to it early in the calculation.

Roger Biggs wrote that he used .2595, which may be the statistical base of

all jockey placings across many rides. This has changed somewhat, there is a

jockey db. on RB Ratings. I am unaware of another method to rate and rank

jockeys against all their rides. They can only ride one horse in a race so

that the iv concocted from a large number of rides seems to be correct, and

I total all the rides for all jockeys in the race then divide that into all

the places achieved by all the jockeys, and from that sub-total I

individually determine an iv. 

There is a place system for ranking jockeys when on favorites, but that is

not the jockey at all. Another time perhaps. Who likes, or wants, dividends

in the sub $2 range, most of us really. 

This upcoming race has riders which have achieved 4708 rides totally under

the period of review, and of those rides those riders scored, placed, in

1415. So, 1415/4708 = .300552251 is the factor to be used. Individually

Keating has 395*17-25-33 (17+25+33/395 = .1898734) and this product is again

divided by the total score .3005522512 to give the score of .6. These

numbers seem minimal, mickey mouse almost, but are a significant part of the

overall stat picture

Trainers may have two or more runners in the race. I score them the same as

jockeys, total rides into total places (123) and develop a iv score from

that.

Involving riders and trainers, getting a score from them combined, I

multiply their ivs and work with the product, ranking that.

Meech 1.4, trainer 1.3 (1.4 * 1.3 = 1.82)

Keating 1, trainer 1 (1 * 1 =1) actually .6 * .1. The trainer is yet to win

a race

Maskiell 1.4, trainer 1 (1.4 * 1 = 1.4.

Dylan Dunn = 1.1

There is some upside to Linda Meech ability, trainer ability.

This is R2 Kyneton tomorrow, a maiden and I'm not betting

in it, nor do I suggest you do.

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