[AusRace] One for Len

Fri Dec 6 14:46:47 AEDT 2019

I average $120 for morning bets the Place at average odds of 5.9/1 (price
6.9) - threepenny to some I guess, not to me.

Considering only races with 8 or more runners, and no late scratchings (it's
too cumbersome to calculate would-be deductions, and in the case of TAB,
impossible), I average 38% better odds (19% price) than the top final Place
price from the 10 bookmakers I monitor.

The next race after I read Ken's post was Mudgee 2, in which I backed #13 at
3.30 for $150 at 8:12 this morning with Sportsbet who allow bets up to MBL
at any time.

5 minutes before scheduled jump time, there was $2,111 in the pool, and the
maximum one could win on any horse at the highest offered price was $137.
#13 was 3.50 top and indicative 4.58 BSP.

At scheduled jump time, the prices were 3.15 and indicative BSP 4.01

Final price offered when they jumped was 3.00 (final pool $5,705) and final
BSP 3.15 (cf 4.01 indicative at scheduled jump time). Less 10% on winnings =
2.935 (for those few on the top discount, it would be 3.064). Final top
Fixed Place price was 3.00 with TopSport.

Then you have the effect your bet would have on the BSP - so sure, you can
get on, but what would #13 have paid if I'd put $150 on it? I have no idea,
but it would have been well under the 3.30 fixed morning price.

I know one swallow does not a summer make, but this race is, in my
experience, typical.

And don't forget that when you bet horses with Betfair,  you are competing
with Zelko R, estimated by The Australian to account for 30%+ of Betfair
turnover!

Here are market %ages for top Final Win prices for fields of >=8 runners, no
late scratchings:

Final Average Win% book  

11/2015   108.1

11/2016   108.6

11/2017   109.1

11/2018   109.2

11/2019   110.6

Final Average Win% book  

All 2015   107.8

All 2016   108.1

All 2017   109.1

All 2018   109.9

All 2019   109.7

Final average Place% book 

11/2015   108.5

11/2016   108.4

11/2017   109.2

11/2018   110.8

11/2019   110.8

Final average Place% book 

All 2015   108.1

All 2016   107.6

All 2017   108.9

All 2018   109.8

All 2019   110.2 

AND they are all net whereas apparent BetFair winning are reduced by
commission.

In any case the only prices that should concern you are those about the
horse you want to back.

For the last 3266 indicated Place bets from my selection system (8 or more
runners, ignoring races with late scratchings, and I don't get on them all):

Return at top 9:00am Place price 1.109, at Final Place price 0.913, at
Betfair Final Place available: 0.81, at Betfair last price matched 0.94 -
from Dynamic Odds figures.

From: Racing On Behalf Of Ken Blake
Sent: Friday, 6 December 2019 11:24 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] One for Len

Mike..I just don't understand why anyone would have accounts with these
thieves,

They are a cancer on the Australian wagering landscape, and most annoyingly
act with impunity most of the time.

I understand Len's Modus Operandi is early bet placement.but what's the
point if you cannot get on or throttled back to threepenny wagers.

I just don't get it. At the end of the day weigh up Betfair starting Price
against Corporate opening prices..over the journey you're probably in front
with Betfair and at least you know you are going to get on.

Ken

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of
mikemcbain at tpg.com.au <mailto:mikemcbain at tpg.com.au> 
Sent: Thursday, 5 December 2019 5:29 PM
To: racing at ausrace.com <mailto:racing at ausrace.com> 
Subject: [AusRace] One for Len

<https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-05/bet365-whistleblower-says-winners-gi
ven-delays/11768486>
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-05/bet365-whistleblower-says-winners-giv
en-delays/11768486

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