From lloveday at ozemail.com.au Sun Dec 1 06:16:14 2019 From: lloveday at ozemail.com.au (L.B.Loveday) Date: Sun, 1 Dec 2019 06:16:14 +1100 Subject: [AusRace] Weir's online betting activity investigated by police Message-ID: <001701d5a7b2$a28414c0$e78c3e40$@ozemail.com.au> Trainer Darren Weir's online betting activity investigated by police Former horse trainer Darren Weir's fall from grace has hit a new low after an investigation into his betting accounts - and those held by his associates. Find out what police uncovered. Leo Schlink and Mark Buttler, Sunday Herald Sun Subscriber only | November 30, 2019 8:10pm Embattled trainer Darren Weir is suspected of using secret betting accounts to place bets of almost $10,000 a race before his training empire ended with the infamous jigger scandal. Victoria Police and racing authorities analysed Weir's betting accounts - and those held by associates - from 2001-19, and suspect the former trainer often backed longer-priced runners over his own stable favourite. But while his average bet size through his TAB account was $845, investigators found bets he may have made through other accounts was more than $1800. He is suspected of placing $9200 on Peaceful State to beat more fancied stablemate Cliffs Edge in the Group 1 Australian Guineas through an account held by a close friend. Peaceful State, which started at $8.50, finished second. Cliff's Edge, a $4.60 favourite, ran seventh. Authorities are believed to have dissected various elements surrounding 80 races. Weir, assistant trainer Jarrod McLean and former Weir employee Tyson Kermond face a string of alleged animal cruelty charges after they were allegedly caught by police using jiggers. The trio will return to court in February to answer accusations they used the banned devices on Yogi, Red Cardinal and Tosen Basil. McLean, who could potentially face a life ban after performance-enhancing EPO was allegedly found in his bedroom during the January police raids, and Kermond are also alleged to have struck horses with lengths of plastic pipe. Weir, 49, is due to reappear in court on February 14 to answer six counts of alleged animal cruelty against racehorses. Trainer Jarrod McLean. Picture: AAP Image/Vince Caligiuri Particulars of the charges include "engaging in the torturing, abusing, overworking and terrifying" of a thoroughbred racehorse and three counts of "causing unreasonable pain or suffering" to a racehorse. He is also charged with possession of an unregistered firearm and conspiracy to defraud RV stewards. While it is not illegal for trainers to bet, authorities are concerned over the motivation for Weir's suspected deception. According to analysis seen by the Sunday Herald Sun, Weir tended to wait until horses were at least four runs into their preparation and were nearing peak fitness. He would often apply blinkers - a habit police suspect was directly linked to the use of jiggers on horses wearing the headgear while exercising on treadmills. The race-day application of blinkers is designed to remind the horse of being struck with jiggers, a barbaric practice frowned upon by most participants. Investigators found Weir's confidence levels in horses contesting their fourth race into a preparation, wearing blinkers and ridden by a "favoured jockey" were higher than normal. They also discovered the true owners of the suspect accounts bet far less than Weir. In one case, the account owner would bet between $1 and $5. One of Weir's suspected wagers was for $4600 eachway through the same account. Another account user would bet between $50 and $100. At times when Weir is thought to have accessed the accounts, the bets would increase "tenfold." Investigators say the motive was likely to be to hide the true identity of the bettor. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From seanmac4321 at gmail.com Sun Dec 1 06:51:03 2019 From: seanmac4321 at gmail.com (sean mclaren) Date: Sun, 1 Dec 2019 05:51:03 +1000 Subject: [AusRace] (no subject) In-Reply-To: <001401d5a74b$606cda70$21468f50$@ozemail.com.au> References: <001b01d5a6ee$b02b9090$1082b1b0$@ozemail.com.au> <001401d5a74b$606cda70$21468f50$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: Len, You have led a wonderful life. You have taken the road much less travelled. And it ain't over yet. Cheers. Sean ps. On Sat, Nov 30, 2019 at 4:58 PM L.B.Loveday wrote: > Sean,, > > > > I am so happy I'm far closer to death than strting out. > > > > LBL > > > > > > *From:* Racing *On Behalf Of *sean mclaren > *Sent:* Saturday, 30 November 2019 14:15 PM > *To:* AusRace Racing Discussion List > *Subject:* Re: [AusRace] (no subject) > > > > Len , I have read it and can offer no further comment. Sean > > > > On Sat, Nov 30, 2019 at 5:54 AM L.B.Loveday > wrote: > > _______________________________________________ > Racing mailing list > Racing at ausrace.com > http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com > > _______________________________________________ > Racing mailing list > Racing at ausrace.com > http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: image/png Size: 148080 bytes Desc: not available URL: From lloveday at ozemail.com.au Sun Dec 1 07:10:43 2019 From: lloveday at ozemail.com.au (L.B.Loveday) Date: Sun, 1 Dec 2019 07:10:43 +1100 Subject: [AusRace] Weir's online betting activity investigated by police In-Reply-To: <001701d5a7b2$a28414c0$e78c3e40$@ozemail.com.au> References: <001701d5a7b2$a28414c0$e78c3e40$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: <002101d5a7ba$3efa14b0$bcee3e10$@ozemail.com.au> DKWeir-trained horses from 7/3/2001 to 31/1/2019: 1st up: win% 11.2, return at SP 61%, return at NSW TAB 67% 2nd up: 13.8%, 65%, 72% 3rd up 15.0%, 69%, 74% 4th up 17.5%, 84%,89% 5th up 17.6%, 83%, 88% 6th up 18.6%, 89%, 92% >6th up 16.5%, 79%, 81% >From 1/1/2015: 1st up 11.5%, 62%, 61% 2nd up 13.5%, 67%, 65% 3rd up 16.3%, 76%, 76% 4th up 17.2%, 89%, 86% 5th up 17.2%, 83%, 85% 6th up 19.1%, 98%, 96% >6th up 19.3%, 91%, 90% All Trainers from 1/1/2015: 1st up 9.3%, 71%, 77% 2nd up 9.9%, 69%, 73% 3rd up 10.8%, 73%, 77% 4th up 11.1%, 75%, 78% 5th up 10.7%, 72%, 75% 6th up 10.7%, 74%, 78% >6th up 9.8%, 72%, 76% From: Racing On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday Sent: Sunday, 1 December 2019 6:16 AM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' Subject: [AusRace] Weir's online betting activity investigated by police Trainer Darren Weir's online betting activity investigated by police Former horse trainer Darren Weir's fall from grace has hit a new low after an investigation into his betting accounts - and those held by his associates. Find out what police uncovered. Leo Schlink and Mark Buttler, Sunday Herald Sun Subscriber only | November 30, 2019 8:10pm Embattled trainer Darren Weir is suspected of using secret betting accounts to place bets of almost $10,000 a race before his training empire ended with the infamous jigger scandal. Victoria Police and racing authorities analysed Weir's betting accounts - and those held by associates - from 2001-19, and suspect the former trainer often backed longer-priced runners over his own stable favourite. But while his average bet size through his TAB account was $845, investigators found bets he may have made through other accounts was more than $1800. He is suspected of placing $9200 on Peaceful State to beat more fancied stablemate Cliffs Edge in the Group 1 Australian Guineas through an account held by a close friend. Peaceful State, which started at $8.50, finished second. Cliff's Edge, a $4.60 favourite, ran seventh. Authorities are believed to have dissected various elements surrounding 80 races. Weir, assistant trainer Jarrod McLean and former Weir employee Tyson Kermond face a string of alleged animal cruelty charges after they were allegedly caught by police using jiggers. The trio will return to court in February to answer accusations they used the banned devices on Yogi, Red Cardinal and Tosen Basil. McLean, who could potentially face a life ban after performance-enhancing EPO was allegedly found in his bedroom during the January police raids, and Kermond are also alleged to have struck horses with lengths of plastic pipe. Weir, 49, is due to reappear in court on February 14 to answer six counts of alleged animal cruelty against racehorses. Trainer Jarrod McLean. Picture: AAP Image/Vince Caligiuri Particulars of the charges include "engaging in the torturing, abusing, overworking and terrifying" of a thoroughbred racehorse and three counts of "causing unreasonable pain or suffering" to a racehorse. He is also charged with possession of an unregistered firearm and conspiracy to defraud RV stewards. While it is not illegal for trainers to bet, authorities are concerned over the motivation for Weir's suspected deception. According to analysis seen by the Sunday Herald Sun, Weir tended to wait until horses were at least four runs into their preparation and were nearing peak fitness. He would often apply blinkers - a habit police suspect was directly linked to the use of jiggers on horses wearing the headgear while exercising on treadmills. The race-day application of blinkers is designed to remind the horse of being struck with jiggers, a barbaric practice frowned upon by most participants. Investigators found Weir's confidence levels in horses contesting their fourth race into a preparation, wearing blinkers and ridden by a "favoured jockey" were higher than normal. They also discovered the true owners of the suspect accounts bet far less than Weir. In one case, the account owner would bet between $1 and $5. One of Weir's suspected wagers was for $4600 eachway through the same account. Another account user would bet between $50 and $100. At times when Weir is thought to have accessed the accounts, the bets would increase "tenfold." Investigators say the motive was likely to be to hide the true identity of the bettor. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From norsaintpublishing at gmail.com Sun Dec 1 22:23:27 2019 From: norsaintpublishing at gmail.com (norsaintpublishing at gmail.com) Date: Sun, 1 Dec 2019 22:23:27 +1100 Subject: [AusRace] Weir's online betting activity investigated by police In-Reply-To: <002101d5a7ba$3efa14b0$bcee3e10$@ozemail.com.au> References: <001701d5a7b2$a28414c0$e78c3e40$@ozemail.com.au> <002101d5a7ba$3efa14b0$bcee3e10$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: I think the Wallopers are out of their depth here. Blind Freddie knew that Weir's horses got better the deeper into a preparation they got and I'm not sure what they're trying to infer as to his betting. He was entitled to do so. I did used to notice however that the things he'd often put the slows on during radio interviews, often got up. Still, that's not illegal, surely? On Sun, 1 Dec 2019 at 07:11, L.B.Loveday wrote: > DKWeir-trained horses from 7/3/2001 to 31/1/2019: > > > > 1st up: win% 11.2, return at SP 61%, return at NSW TAB 67% > > 2nd up: 13.8%, 65%, 72% > > 3rd up 15.0%, 69%, 74% > > 4th up 17.5%, 84%,89% > > 5th up 17.6%, 83%, 88% > > 6th up 18.6%, 89%, 92% > > >6th up 16.5%, 79%, 81% > > > > From 1/1/2015: > > > > 1st up 11.5%, 62%, 61% > > 2nd up 13.5%, 67%, 65% > > 3rd up 16.3%, 76%, 76% > > 4th up 17.2%, 89%, 86% > > 5th up 17.2%, 83%, 85% > > 6th up 19.1%, 98%, 96% > > >6th up 19.3%, 91%, 90% > > > > All Trainers from 1/1/2015: > > > > 1st up 9.3%, 71%, 77% > > 2nd up 9.9%, 69%, 73% > > 3rd up 10.8%, 73%, 77% > > 4th up 11.1%, 75%, 78% > > 5th up 10.7%, 72%, 75% > > 6th up 10.7%, 74%, 78% > > >6th up 9.8%, 72%, 76% > > > > *From:* Racing *On Behalf Of *L.B.Loveday > *Sent:* Sunday, 1 December 2019 6:16 AM > *To:* 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' > *Subject:* [AusRace] Weir's online betting activity investigated by police > > > Trainer Darren Weir?s online betting activity investigated by police > > Former horse trainer Darren Weir?s fall from grace has hit a new low after > an investigation into his betting accounts - and those held by his > associates. Find out what police uncovered. > > *Leo Schlink and Mark Buttler*, Sunday Herald Sun > > Subscriber only > > | > > November 30, 2019 8:10pm > > > > Embattled trainer Darren Weir is suspected of using secret betting > accounts to place bets of almost $10,000 a race before his training empire > ended with the infamous jigger scandal. > > Victoria Police and racing authorities analysed Weir?s betting accounts - > and those held by associates ? from 2001-19, and suspect the former trainer > often backed longer-priced runners over his own stable favourite. > > But while his average bet size through his TAB account was $845, > investigators found bets he may have made through other accounts was more > than $1800. > > He is suspected of placing $9200 on Peaceful State to beat more fancied > stablemate Cliffs Edge in the Group 1 Australian Guineas through an account > held by a close friend. > > Peaceful State, which started at $8.50, finished second. Cliff?s Edge, a > $4.60 favourite, ran seventh. > > Authorities are believed to have dissected various elements surrounding 80 > races. > > Weir, assistant trainer Jarrod McLean and former Weir employee Tyson > Kermond face a string of alleged animal cruelty charges after they were > allegedly caught by police using jiggers. > > The trio will return to court in February to answer accusations they used > the banned devices on Yogi, Red Cardinal and Tosen Basil. > > McLean, who could potentially face a life ban after performance-enhancing > EPO was allegedly found in his bedroom during the January police raids, and > Kermond are also alleged to have struck horses with lengths of plastic pipe. > > Weir, 49, is due to reappear in court on February 14 to answer six counts > of alleged animal cruelty against racehorses. > > Trainer Jarrod McLean. Picture: AAP Image/Vince Caligiuri > > Particulars of the charges include ?engaging in the torturing, abusing, > overworking and terrifying? of a thoroughbred racehorse and three counts of > ?causing unreasonable pain or suffering? to a racehorse. > > He is also charged with possession of an unregistered firearm and > conspiracy to defraud RV stewards. > > While it is not illegal for trainers to bet, authorities are concerned > over the motivation for Weir?s suspected deception. > > According to analysis seen by the *Sunday Herald Sun*, Weir tended to > wait until horses were at least four runs into their preparation and were > nearing peak fitness. > > He would often apply blinkers ? a habit police suspect was directly linked > to the use of jiggers on horses wearing the headgear while exercising on > treadmills. > > The race-day application of blinkers is designed to remind the horse of > being struck with jiggers, a barbaric practice frowned upon by most > participants. > > Investigators found Weir?s confidence levels in horses contesting their > fourth race into a preparation, wearing blinkers and ridden by a ?favoured > jockey? were higher than normal. > > They also discovered the true owners of the suspect accounts bet far less > than Weir. > > In one case, the account owner would bet between $1 and $5. One of Weir?s > suspected wagers was for $4600 eachway through the same account. > > Another account user would bet between $50 and $100. At times when Weir is > thought to have accessed the accounts, the bets would increase ?tenfold.? > > Investigators say the motive was likely to be to hide the true identity of > the bettor. > > > _______________________________________________ > Racing mailing list > Racing at ausrace.com > http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From lloveday at ozemail.com.au Thu Dec 5 18:37:41 2019 From: lloveday at ozemail.com.au (L.B.Loveday) Date: Thu, 5 Dec 2019 18:37:41 +1100 Subject: [AusRace] Nanny State - again Message-ID: <002601d5ab3e$e0a290d0$a1e7b270$@ozemail.com.au> Bank industry aims to curb credit gambling * By Colin Brinsden * Australian Associated Press * An hour ago December 5, 2019 Banks could ban or limit the use of credit cards for online gambling after launching a public consultation on internet betting. The Australian Banking Association CEO Anna Bligh says the banks have an important role to play in helping tackle the issue of problem gambling and are seeking feedback from the community. "For many Australians gambling is a form of entertainment and recreation, however for some it can become a problem that potentially has devastating consequence for the individual and their family," Ms Bligh said in a statement on Thursday. "As an industry we are currently assessing a number of options to help tackle problem gambling." The ABA launched a consultation paper on Thursday, seeking community views on the risks of gambling on credit and what restrictions could be imposed. The initiative comes as the federal government passed legislation enabling problem gamblers to ban themselves from online gambling sites. The legislation creates a register for punters to opt-out for three months or permanently. Gambling websites that fail to promote the register could face penalties. Upon registration for self-exclusion, all money in a person's active accounts must be returned once all bets are settled. The account must then be closed. The Australian Communications and Media Authority would be responsible for implementing the register. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From norsaintpublishing at gmail.com Thu Dec 5 19:29:53 2019 From: norsaintpublishing at gmail.com (norsaintpublishing at gmail.com) Date: Thu, 5 Dec 2019 19:29:53 +1100 Subject: [AusRace] Nanny State - again In-Reply-To: <002601d5ab3e$e0a290d0$a1e7b270$@ozemail.com.au> References: <002601d5ab3e$e0a290d0$a1e7b270$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: The evidence is becoming overwhelming. Wimmin in politics/the public square are a threat to personal freedom. On Thu, 5 Dec 2019 at 18:38, L.B.Loveday wrote: > *Bank industry aims to curb credit gambling* > > - By *Colin Brinsden* > - Australian Associated Press > - An hour ago December 5, 2019 > > Banks could ban or limit the use of credit cards for online gambling after > launching a public consultation on internet betting. > > The Australian Banking Association CEO Anna Bligh says the banks have an > important role to play in helping tackle the issue of problem gambling and > are seeking feedback from the community. > > "For many Australians gambling is a form of entertainment and recreation, > however for some it can become a problem that potentially has devastating > consequence for the individual and their family," Ms Bligh said in a > statement on Thursday. > > "As an industry we are currently assessing a number of options to help > tackle problem gambling." > > The ABA launched a consultation paper on Thursday, seeking community views > on the risks of gambling on credit and what restrictions could be imposed. > > The initiative comes as the federal government passed legislation enabling > problem gamblers to ban themselves from online gambling sites. > > The legislation creates a register for punters to opt-out for three months > or permanently. > > Gambling websites that fail to promote the register could face penalties. > > Upon registration for self-exclusion, all money in a person's active > accounts must be returned once all bets are settled. > > The account must then be closed. > > The Australian Communications and Media Authority would be responsible for > implementing the register. > > > _______________________________________________ > Racing mailing list > Racing at ausrace.com > http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From tonymoffat at bigpond.com Thu Dec 5 20:14:22 2019 From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat) Date: Thu, 5 Dec 2019 17:14:22 +0800 Subject: [AusRace] Nanny State - again In-Reply-To: <002601d5ab3e$e0a290d0$a1e7b270$@ozemail.com.au> References: <002601d5ab3e$e0a290d0$a1e7b270$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: <001801d5ab4c$62ceec90$286cc5b0$@bigpond.com> The TABs have limit and frequency use rules in place - although you have to commit to it yourself (and would one with a problem do that?) The corporates have the same thing, don't they?, although I haven't read every site and I am assuming those who tell us to gambleresponsibly (typed fast on purpose) do have a method of monitoring. What we need is for all of them to have a Pastor who can call and comfort us - Cheers Tony Bank industry aims to curb credit gambling snipped -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From mikemcbain at tpg.com.au Thu Dec 5 20:28:56 2019 From: mikemcbain at tpg.com.au (mikemcbain at tpg.com.au) Date: Thu, 5 Dec 2019 20:28:56 +1100 Subject: [AusRace] One for Len Message-ID: <001301d5ab4e$6c350330$449f0990$@tpg.com.au> https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-05/bet365-whistleblower-says-winners-giv en-delays/11768486 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From conceptracing at bigpond.com Fri Dec 6 11:23:31 2019 From: conceptracing at bigpond.com (Ken Blake) Date: Fri, 6 Dec 2019 08:23:31 +0800 Subject: [AusRace] One for Len In-Reply-To: <001301d5ab4e$6c350330$449f0990$@tpg.com.au> References: <001301d5ab4e$6c350330$449f0990$@tpg.com.au> Message-ID: <002c01d5abcb$63e1c970$2ba55c50$@bigpond.com> Mike..I just don't understand why anyone would have accounts with these thieves, They are a cancer on the Australian wagering landscape, and most annoyingly act with impunity most of the time. I understand Len's Modus Operandi is early bet placement.but what's the point if you cannot get on or throttled back to threepenny wagers. I just don't get it. At the end of the day weigh up Betfair starting Price against Corporate opening prices..over the journey you're probably in front with Betfair and at least you know you are going to get on. Ken From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of mikemcbain at tpg.com.au Sent: Thursday, 5 December 2019 5:29 PM To: racing at ausrace.com Subject: [AusRace] One for Len https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-05/bet365-whistleblower-says-winners-giv en-delays/11768486 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From lloveday at ozemail.com.au Fri Dec 6 14:46:47 2019 From: lloveday at ozemail.com.au (L.B.Loveday) Date: Fri, 6 Dec 2019 14:46:47 +1100 Subject: [AusRace] One for Len In-Reply-To: <002c01d5abcb$63e1c970$2ba55c50$@bigpond.com> References: <001301d5ab4e$6c350330$449f0990$@tpg.com.au> <002c01d5abcb$63e1c970$2ba55c50$@bigpond.com> Message-ID: <000001d5abe7$c9992670$5ccb7350$@ozemail.com.au> I average $120 for morning bets the Place at average odds of 5.9/1 (price 6.9) - threepenny to some I guess, not to me. Considering only races with 8 or more runners, and no late scratchings (it's too cumbersome to calculate would-be deductions, and in the case of TAB, impossible), I average 38% better odds (19% price) than the top final Place price from the 10 bookmakers I monitor. The next race after I read Ken's post was Mudgee 2, in which I backed #13 at 3.30 for $150 at 8:12 this morning with Sportsbet who allow bets up to MBL at any time. 5 minutes before scheduled jump time, there was $2,111 in the pool, and the maximum one could win on any horse at the highest offered price was $137. #13 was 3.50 top and indicative 4.58 BSP. At scheduled jump time, the prices were 3.15 and indicative BSP 4.01 Final price offered when they jumped was 3.00 (final pool $5,705) and final BSP 3.15 (cf 4.01 indicative at scheduled jump time). Less 10% on winnings = 2.935 (for those few on the top discount, it would be 3.064). Final top Fixed Place price was 3.00 with TopSport. Then you have the effect your bet would have on the BSP - so sure, you can get on, but what would #13 have paid if I'd put $150 on it? I have no idea, but it would have been well under the 3.30 fixed morning price. I know one swallow does not a summer make, but this race is, in my experience, typical. And don't forget that when you bet horses with Betfair, you are competing with Zelko R, estimated by The Australian to account for 30%+ of Betfair turnover! Here are market %ages for top Final Win prices for fields of >=8 runners, no late scratchings: Final Average Win% book 11/2015 108.1 11/2016 108.6 11/2017 109.1 11/2018 109.2 11/2019 110.6 Final Average Win% book All 2015 107.8 All 2016 108.1 All 2017 109.1 All 2018 109.9 All 2019 109.7 Final average Place% book 11/2015 108.5 11/2016 108.4 11/2017 109.2 11/2018 110.8 11/2019 110.8 Final average Place% book All 2015 108.1 All 2016 107.6 All 2017 108.9 All 2018 109.8 All 2019 110.2 AND they are all net whereas apparent BetFair winning are reduced by commission. In any case the only prices that should concern you are those about the horse you want to back. For the last 3266 indicated Place bets from my selection system (8 or more runners, ignoring races with late scratchings, and I don't get on them all): Return at top 9:00am Place price 1.109, at Final Place price 0.913, at Betfair Final Place available: 0.81, at Betfair last price matched 0.94 - from Dynamic Odds figures. From: Racing On Behalf Of Ken Blake Sent: Friday, 6 December 2019 11:24 AM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' Subject: Re: [AusRace] One for Len Mike..I just don't understand why anyone would have accounts with these thieves, They are a cancer on the Australian wagering landscape, and most annoyingly act with impunity most of the time. I understand Len's Modus Operandi is early bet placement.but what's the point if you cannot get on or throttled back to threepenny wagers. I just don't get it. At the end of the day weigh up Betfair starting Price against Corporate opening prices..over the journey you're probably in front with Betfair and at least you know you are going to get on. Ken From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of mikemcbain at tpg.com.au Sent: Thursday, 5 December 2019 5:29 PM To: racing at ausrace.com Subject: [AusRace] One for Len https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-05/bet365-whistleblower-says-winners-giv en-delays/11768486 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From seanmac4321 at gmail.com Fri Dec 6 15:37:36 2019 From: seanmac4321 at gmail.com (sean mclaren) Date: Fri, 6 Dec 2019 14:37:36 +1000 Subject: [AusRace] One for Len In-Reply-To: <000001d5abe7$c9992670$5ccb7350$@ozemail.com.au> References: <001301d5ab4e$6c350330$449f0990$@tpg.com.au> <002c01d5abcb$63e1c970$2ba55c50$@bigpond.com> <000001d5abe7$c9992670$5ccb7350$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: Len The fact that you are doing this both before after the POC intro, is excellent. Like fishing, you have to know the right spot lol. rgds Sean On Fri, Dec 6, 2019 at 1:47 PM L.B.Loveday wrote: > I average $120 for morning bets the Place at average odds of 5.9/1 (price > 6.9) - threepenny to some I guess, not to me. > > > > Considering only races with 8 or more runners, and no late scratchings > (it's too cumbersome to calculate would-be deductions, and in the case of > TAB, impossible), I average 38% better odds (19% price) than the top final > Place price from the 10 bookmakers I monitor. > > > > The next race after I read Ken's post was Mudgee 2, in which I backed #13 > at 3.30 for $150 at 8:12 this morning with Sportsbet who allow bets up to > MBL at any time. > > > > 5 minutes before scheduled jump time, there was $2,111 in the pool, and > the maximum one could win on any horse at the highest offered price was > $137. #13 was 3.50 top and indicative 4.58 BSP. > > > > At scheduled jump time, the prices were 3.15 and indicative BSP 4.01 > > > > Final price offered when they jumped was 3.00 (final pool $5,705) and > final BSP 3.15 (cf 4.01 indicative at scheduled jump time). Less 10% on > winnings = 2.935 (for those few on the top discount, it would be 3.064). > Final top Fixed Place price was 3.00 with TopSport. > > > > Then you have the effect your bet would have on the BSP - so sure, you can > get on, but what would #13 have paid if I'd put $150 on it? I have no idea, > but it would have been well under the 3.30 fixed morning price. > > > > I know one swallow does not a summer make, but this race is, in my > experience, typical. > > > > And don't forget that when you bet horses with Betfair, you are competing > with Zelko R, estimated by The Australian to account for 30%+ of Betfair > turnover! > > > > Here are market %ages for top Final Win prices for fields of >=8 runners, > no late scratchings: > > > > Final Average Win% book > > 11/2015 108.1 > > 11/2016 108.6 > > 11/2017 109.1 > > 11/2018 109.2 > > 11/2019 110.6 > > > > Final Average Win% book > > All 2015 107.8 > > All 2016 108.1 > > All 2017 109.1 > > All 2018 109.9 > > All 2019 109.7 > > > > Final average Place% book > > 11/2015 108.5 > > 11/2016 108.4 > > 11/2017 109.2 > > 11/2018 110.8 > > 11/2019 110.8 > > > > Final average Place% book > > All 2015 108.1 > > All 2016 107.6 > > All 2017 108.9 > > All 2018 109.8 > > All 2019 110.2 > > > > AND they are all net whereas apparent BetFair winning are reduced by > commission. > > > > In any case the only prices that should concern you are those about the > horse you want to back. > > > > For the last 3266 indicated Place bets from my selection system (8 or more > runners, ignoring races with late scratchings, and I don't get on them all): > > > > Return at top 9:00am Place price 1.109, at Final Place price 0.913, at > Betfair Final Place available: 0.81, at Betfair last price matched 0.94 - > from Dynamic Odds figures. > > > > > > > > *From:* Racing *On Behalf Of *Ken Blake > *Sent:* Friday, 6 December 2019 11:24 AM > *To:* 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' > *Subject:* Re: [AusRace] One for Len > > > > Mike?.I just don?t understand why anyone would have accounts with these > thieves, > > > > They are a cancer on the Australian wagering landscape, and most > annoyingly act with impunity most of the time. > > I understand Len?s Modus Operandi is early bet placement?but what?s the > point if you cannot get on or throttled back to threepenny wagers. > > > > I just don?t get it. At the end of the day weigh up Betfair starting Price > against Corporate opening prices?.over the journey you?re probably in front > with Betfair and at least you know you are going to get on. > > > > Ken > > > > > > *From:* Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com > ] *On Behalf Of *mikemcbain at tpg.com.au > *Sent:* Thursday, 5 December 2019 5:29 PM > *To:* racing at ausrace.com > *Subject:* [AusRace] One for Len > > > > > https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-05/bet365-whistleblower-says-winners-given-delays/11768486 > _______________________________________________ > Racing mailing list > Racing at ausrace.com > http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From lloveday at ozemail.com.au Fri Dec 6 16:21:52 2019 From: lloveday at ozemail.com.au (L.B.Loveday) Date: Fri, 6 Dec 2019 16:21:52 +1100 Subject: [AusRace] One for Len In-Reply-To: References: <001301d5ab4e$6c350330$449f0990$@tpg.com.au> <002c01d5abcb$63e1c970$2ba55c50$@bigpond.com> <000001d5abe7$c9992670$5ccb7350$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: <000001d5abf5$1291cd20$37b56760$@ozemail.com.au> Been out, returned just before the next bet (I've just 12 for the day) Mudgee 6/10, 2.20 with B365 at 9:00:20am (they don't bet before the MBL time). At scheduled jump time, 1.86 was top offered price and indicative BSP 1.71. Final top offered price 1.88 and BSP 1.98. Final top Fixed Place price was 1.70 from TAB. The other 10 are: Mudge 7/5 3.10P Randw 4/8 7.50P Mudge 8/15 11.0P MtGmb 5/9 7.50P Randw 5/8 8.00P Devon 4/7 4.20P Randw 6/7 2.30P LATE SCRATCHING, now 2 divs with Fixed Prices. MtGmb 8/1 2.50P MVall 4/1 4.00W SCoas 3/3 3.50P I'll be at the pub during the running of them all except Mudge 7, so no reports will be forthcoming! From: Racing On Behalf Of sean mclaren Sent: Friday, 6 December 2019 15:38 PM To: AusRace Racing Discussion List Subject: Re: [AusRace] One for Len Len The fact that you are doing this both before after the POC intro, is excellent. Like fishing, you have to know the right spot lol. rgds Sean On Fri, Dec 6, 2019 at 1:47 PM L.B.Loveday > wrote: I average $120 for morning bets the Place at average odds of 5.9/1 (price 6.9) - threepenny to some I guess, not to me. Considering only races with 8 or more runners, and no late scratchings (it's too cumbersome to calculate would-be deductions, and in the case of TAB, impossible), I average 38% better odds (19% price) than the top final Place price from the 10 bookmakers I monitor. The next race after I read Ken's post was Mudgee 2, in which I backed #13 at 3.30 for $150 at 8:12 this morning with Sportsbet who allow bets up to MBL at any time. 5 minutes before scheduled jump time, there was $2,111 in the pool, and the maximum one could win on any horse at the highest offered price was $137. #13 was 3.50 top and indicative 4.58 BSP. At scheduled jump time, the prices were 3.15 and indicative BSP 4.01 Final price offered when they jumped was 3.00 (final pool $5,705) and final BSP 3.15 (cf 4.01 indicative at scheduled jump time). Less 10% on winnings = 2.935 (for those few on the top discount, it would be 3.064). Final top Fixed Place price was 3.00 with TopSport. Then you have the effect your bet would have on the BSP - so sure, you can get on, but what would #13 have paid if I'd put $150 on it? I have no idea, but it would have been well under the 3.30 fixed morning price. I know one swallow does not a summer make, but this race is, in my experience, typical. And don't forget that when you bet horses with Betfair, you are competing with Zelko R, estimated by The Australian to account for 30%+ of Betfair turnover! Here are market %ages for top Final Win prices for fields of >=8 runners, no late scratchings: Final Average Win% book 11/2015 108.1 11/2016 108.6 11/2017 109.1 11/2018 109.2 11/2019 110.6 Final Average Win% book All 2015 107.8 All 2016 108.1 All 2017 109.1 All 2018 109.9 All 2019 109.7 Final average Place% book 11/2015 108.5 11/2016 108.4 11/2017 109.2 11/2018 110.8 11/2019 110.8 Final average Place% book All 2015 108.1 All 2016 107.6 All 2017 108.9 All 2018 109.8 All 2019 110.2 AND they are all net whereas apparent BetFair winning are reduced by commission. In any case the only prices that should concern you are those about the horse you want to back. For the last 3266 indicated Place bets from my selection system (8 or more runners, ignoring races with late scratchings, and I don't get on them all): Return at top 9:00am Place price 1.109, at Final Place price 0.913, at Betfair Final Place available: 0.81, at Betfair last price matched 0.94 - from Dynamic Odds figures. From: Racing On Behalf Of Ken Blake Sent: Friday, 6 December 2019 11:24 AM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' > Subject: Re: [AusRace] One for Len Mike?.I just don?t understand why anyone would have accounts with these thieves, They are a cancer on the Australian wagering landscape, and most annoyingly act with impunity most of the time. I understand Len?s Modus Operandi is early bet placement?but what?s the point if you cannot get on or throttled back to threepenny wagers. I just don?t get it. At the end of the day weigh up Betfair starting Price against Corporate opening prices?.over the journey you?re probably in front with Betfair and at least you know you are going to get on. Ken From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of mikemcbain at tpg.com.au Sent: Thursday, 5 December 2019 5:29 PM To: racing at ausrace.com Subject: [AusRace] One for Len https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-05/bet365-whistleblower-says-winners-given-delays/11768486 _______________________________________________ Racing mailing list Racing at ausrace.com http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From seanmac4321 at gmail.com Fri Dec 6 16:29:38 2019 From: seanmac4321 at gmail.com (sean mclaren) Date: Fri, 6 Dec 2019 15:29:38 +1000 Subject: [AusRace] One for Len In-Reply-To: <000001d5abf5$1291cd20$37b56760$@ozemail.com.au> References: <001301d5ab4e$6c350330$449f0990$@tpg.com.au> <002c01d5abcb$63e1c970$2ba55c50$@bigpond.com> <000001d5abe7$c9992670$5ccb7350$@ozemail.com.au> <000001d5abf5$1291cd20$37b56760$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: old habits die hard lol On Fri, Dec 6, 2019 at 3:22 PM L.B.Loveday wrote: > Been out, returned just before the next bet (I've just 12 for the day) > Mudgee 6/10, 2.20 with B365 at 9:00:20am (they don't bet before the MBL > time). > > > > At scheduled jump time, 1.86 was top offered price and indicative BSP > 1.71. Final top offered price 1.88 and BSP 1.98. Final top Fixed Place > price was 1.70 from TAB. > > > > The other 10 are: > > > > Mudge 7/5 3.10P > > Randw 4/8 7.50P > > Mudge 8/15 11.0P > > MtGmb 5/9 7.50P > > Randw 5/8 8.00P > > Devon 4/7 4.20P > > Randw 6/7 2.30P LATE SCRATCHING, now 2 divs with Fixed Prices. > > MtGmb 8/1 2.50P > > MVall 4/1 4.00W > > SCoas 3/3 3.50P > > > > I'll be at the pub during the running of them all except Mudge 7, so no > reports will be forthcoming! > > > > > > > > *From:* Racing *On Behalf Of *sean mclaren > *Sent:* Friday, 6 December 2019 15:38 PM > *To:* AusRace Racing Discussion List > *Subject:* Re: [AusRace] One for Len > > > > Len > > > > The fact that you are doing this both before after the POC intro, is > excellent. > > > > Like fishing, you have to know the right spot lol. > > > > rgds Sean > > > > > > > > > > On Fri, Dec 6, 2019 at 1:47 PM L.B.Loveday > wrote: > > I average $120 for morning bets the Place at average odds of 5.9/1 (price > 6.9) - threepenny to some I guess, not to me. > > > > Considering only races with 8 or more runners, and no late scratchings > (it's too cumbersome to calculate would-be deductions, and in the case of > TAB, impossible), I average 38% better odds (19% price) than the top final > Place price from the 10 bookmakers I monitor. > > > > The next race after I read Ken's post was Mudgee 2, in which I backed #13 > at 3.30 for $150 at 8:12 this morning with Sportsbet who allow bets up to > MBL at any time. > > > > 5 minutes before scheduled jump time, there was $2,111 in the pool, and > the maximum one could win on any horse at the highest offered price was > $137. #13 was 3.50 top and indicative 4.58 BSP. > > > > At scheduled jump time, the prices were 3.15 and indicative BSP 4.01 > > > > Final price offered when they jumped was 3.00 (final pool $5,705) and > final BSP 3.15 (cf 4.01 indicative at scheduled jump time). Less 10% on > winnings = 2.935 (for those few on the top discount, it would be 3.064). > Final top Fixed Place price was 3.00 with TopSport. > > > > Then you have the effect your bet would have on the BSP - so sure, you can > get on, but what would #13 have paid if I'd put $150 on it? I have no idea, > but it would have been well under the 3.30 fixed morning price. > > > > I know one swallow does not a summer make, but this race is, in my > experience, typical. > > > > And don't forget that when you bet horses with Betfair, you are competing > with Zelko R, estimated by The Australian to account for 30%+ of Betfair > turnover! > > > > Here are market %ages for top Final Win prices for fields of >=8 runners, > no late scratchings: > > > > Final Average Win% book > > 11/2015 108.1 > > 11/2016 108.6 > > 11/2017 109.1 > > 11/2018 109.2 > > 11/2019 110.6 > > > > Final Average Win% book > > All 2015 107.8 > > All 2016 108.1 > > All 2017 109.1 > > All 2018 109.9 > > All 2019 109.7 > > > > Final average Place% book > > 11/2015 108.5 > > 11/2016 108.4 > > 11/2017 109.2 > > 11/2018 110.8 > > 11/2019 110.8 > > > > Final average Place% book > > All 2015 108.1 > > All 2016 107.6 > > All 2017 108.9 > > All 2018 109.8 > > All 2019 110.2 > > > > AND they are all net whereas apparent BetFair winning are reduced by > commission. > > > > In any case the only prices that should concern you are those about the > horse you want to back. > > > > For the last 3266 indicated Place bets from my selection system (8 or more > runners, ignoring races with late scratchings, and I don't get on them all): > > > > Return at top 9:00am Place price 1.109, at Final Place price 0.913, at > Betfair Final Place available: 0.81, at Betfair last price matched 0.94 - > from Dynamic Odds figures. > > > > > > > > *From:* Racing *On Behalf Of *Ken Blake > *Sent:* Friday, 6 December 2019 11:24 AM > *To:* 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' > *Subject:* Re: [AusRace] One for Len > > > > Mike?.I just don?t understand why anyone would have accounts with these > thieves, > > > > They are a cancer on the Australian wagering landscape, and most > annoyingly act with impunity most of the time. > > I understand Len?s Modus Operandi is early bet placement?but what?s the > point if you cannot get on or throttled back to threepenny wagers. > > > > I just don?t get it. At the end of the day weigh up Betfair starting Price > against Corporate opening prices?.over the journey you?re probably in front > with Betfair and at least you know you are going to get on. > > > > Ken > > > > > > *From:* Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com > ] *On Behalf Of *mikemcbain at tpg.com.au > *Sent:* Thursday, 5 December 2019 5:29 PM > *To:* racing at ausrace.com > *Subject:* [AusRace] One for Len > > > > > https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-05/bet365-whistleblower-says-winners-given-delays/11768486 > > _______________________________________________ > Racing mailing list > Racing at ausrace.com > http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com > > _______________________________________________ > Racing mailing list > Racing at ausrace.com > http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From lloveday at ozemail.com.au Sat Dec 7 06:24:49 2019 From: lloveday at ozemail.com.au (L.B.Loveday) Date: Sat, 7 Dec 2019 06:24:49 +1100 Subject: [AusRace] One for Len In-Reply-To: References: <001301d5ab4e$6c350330$449f0990$@tpg.com.au> <002c01d5abcb$63e1c970$2ba55c50$@bigpond.com> <000001d5abe7$c9992670$5ccb7350$@ozemail.com.au> <000001d5abf5$1291cd20$37b56760$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: <002c01d5ac6a$d4502270$7cf06750$@ozemail.com.au> Sean, Again we see that "overs" is no guarantee of success (and that is so even long term in races, unlike, eg getting 2.10 on the toss of a coin where the odds are definitely evens; in races the final odds are determined by opinions and the amount of money backing those opinions) - for the 11 bets where there were no late scratchings, I averaged 25% better than top Final Fixed Odds, but lost comprehensively. A few days ago I had 18 bets which would have returned $17 for $18 outlay at level $1 stake, a smallish loss, but because of MBL, I could only get $31 on the only collect at 17.0 while having more on each of the 17 losers for a large loss. LBL From: Racing On Behalf Of sean mclaren Sent: Friday, 6 December 2019 16:30 PM To: AusRace Racing Discussion List Subject: Re: [AusRace] One for Len old habits die hard lol On Fri, Dec 6, 2019 at 3:22 PM L.B.Loveday > wrote: Been out, returned just before the next bet (I've just 12 for the day) Mudgee 6/10, 2.20 with B365 at 9:00:20am (they don't bet before the MBL time). At scheduled jump time, 1.86 was top offered price and indicative BSP 1.71. Final top offered price 1.88 and BSP 1.98. Final top Fixed Place price was 1.70 from TAB. The other 10 are: Mudge 7/5 3.10P Randw 4/8 7.50P Mudge 8/15 11.0P MtGmb 5/9 7.50P Randw 5/8 8.00P Devon 4/7 4.20P Randw 6/7 2.30P LATE SCRATCHING, now 2 divs with Fixed Prices. MtGmb 8/1 2.50P MVall 4/1 4.00W SCoas 3/3 3.50P I'll be at the pub during the running of them all except Mudge 7, so no reports will be forthcoming! From: Racing On Behalf Of sean mclaren Sent: Friday, 6 December 2019 15:38 PM To: AusRace Racing Discussion List > Subject: Re: [AusRace] One for Len Len The fact that you are doing this both before after the POC intro, is excellent. Like fishing, you have to know the right spot lol. rgds Sean On Fri, Dec 6, 2019 at 1:47 PM L.B.Loveday > wrote: I average $120 for morning bets the Place at average odds of 5.9/1 (price 6.9) - threepenny to some I guess, not to me. Considering only races with 8 or more runners, and no late scratchings (it's too cumbersome to calculate would-be deductions, and in the case of TAB, impossible), I average 38% better odds (19% price) than the top final Place price from the 10 bookmakers I monitor. The next race after I read Ken's post was Mudgee 2, in which I backed #13 at 3.30 for $150 at 8:12 this morning with Sportsbet who allow bets up to MBL at any time. 5 minutes before scheduled jump time, there was $2,111 in the pool, and the maximum one could win on any horse at the highest offered price was $137. #13 was 3.50 top and indicative 4.58 BSP. At scheduled jump time, the prices were 3.15 and indicative BSP 4.01 Final price offered when they jumped was 3.00 (final pool $5,705) and final BSP 3.15 (cf 4.01 indicative at scheduled jump time). Less 10% on winnings = 2.935 (for those few on the top discount, it would be 3.064). Final top Fixed Place price was 3.00 with TopSport. Then you have the effect your bet would have on the BSP - so sure, you can get on, but what would #13 have paid if I'd put $150 on it? I have no idea, but it would have been well under the 3.30 fixed morning price. I know one swallow does not a summer make, but this race is, in my experience, typical. And don't forget that when you bet horses with Betfair, you are competing with Zelko R, estimated by The Australian to account for 30%+ of Betfair turnover! Here are market %ages for top Final Win prices for fields of >=8 runners, no late scratchings: Final Average Win% book 11/2015 108.1 11/2016 108.6 11/2017 109.1 11/2018 109.2 11/2019 110.6 Final Average Win% book All 2015 107.8 All 2016 108.1 All 2017 109.1 All 2018 109.9 All 2019 109.7 Final average Place% book 11/2015 108.5 11/2016 108.4 11/2017 109.2 11/2018 110.8 11/2019 110.8 Final average Place% book All 2015 108.1 All 2016 107.6 All 2017 108.9 All 2018 109.8 All 2019 110.2 AND they are all net whereas apparent BetFair winning are reduced by commission. In any case the only prices that should concern you are those about the horse you want to back. For the last 3266 indicated Place bets from my selection system (8 or more runners, ignoring races with late scratchings, and I don't get on them all): Return at top 9:00am Place price 1.109, at Final Place price 0.913, at Betfair Final Place available: 0.81, at Betfair last price matched 0.94 - from Dynamic Odds figures. From: Racing On Behalf Of Ken Blake Sent: Friday, 6 December 2019 11:24 AM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' > Subject: Re: [AusRace] One for Len Mike?.I just don?t understand why anyone would have accounts with these thieves, They are a cancer on the Australian wagering landscape, and most annoyingly act with impunity most of the time. I understand Len?s Modus Operandi is early bet placement?but what?s the point if you cannot get on or throttled back to threepenny wagers. I just don?t get it. At the end of the day weigh up Betfair starting Price against Corporate opening prices?.over the journey you?re probably in front with Betfair and at least you know you are going to get on. Ken From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of mikemcbain at tpg.com.au Sent: Thursday, 5 December 2019 5:29 PM To: racing at ausrace.com Subject: [AusRace] One for Len https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-05/bet365-whistleblower-says-winners-given-delays/11768486 _______________________________________________ Racing mailing list Racing at ausrace.com http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com _______________________________________________ Racing mailing list Racing at ausrace.com http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From seanmac4321 at gmail.com Sat Dec 7 07:22:31 2019 From: seanmac4321 at gmail.com (sean mclaren) Date: Sat, 7 Dec 2019 06:22:31 +1000 Subject: [AusRace] One for Len In-Reply-To: <002c01d5ac6a$d4502270$7cf06750$@ozemail.com.au> References: <001301d5ab4e$6c350330$449f0990$@tpg.com.au> <002c01d5abcb$63e1c970$2ba55c50$@bigpond.com> <000001d5abe7$c9992670$5ccb7350$@ozemail.com.au> <000001d5abf5$1291cd20$37b56760$@ozemail.com.au> <002c01d5ac6a$d4502270$7cf06750$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: Len maximising your price is better than not. it simply makes commercial sense. let's not use "overs". the ACTUAL selections will determine success or not, as long as you are getting better prices than your OWN prices. if you ain't got the selections you ain't got a chance to profit. BTW the pundits say you can't make money betting into the early 120% plus markets. moreso with the introduction of the POC. we both know that is not true. because that is what you do. that is not to say, there is NO impact. i suspect it's impact is much lesser, given the location of your fishing spot. i don't know how the pundits keep associating a line in the market with the overround. a horse at $10 in 135% mkt versus a $10 in a 105% mkt. the horse is $10, there is no guilt via association. what it tells me, is they don't know their own "strike rates". understanding your own "strike rates" means having a much deeper understanding, well beyond using that nebulous term; average. put simply, the pundits don't have a clue what is value, and more importantly; what is not. apologies for the wordiness. BTW my old habits comment was referring to the trip to the pub lol. On Sat, Dec 7, 2019 at 5:25 AM L.B.Loveday wrote: > Sean, > > > > Again we see that "overs" is no guarantee of success (and that is so even > long term in races, unlike, eg getting 2.10 on the toss of a coin where the > odds are definitely evens; in races the final odds are determined by > opinions and the amount of money backing those opinions) - for the 11 bets > where there were no late scratchings, I averaged 25% better than top Final > Fixed Odds, but lost comprehensively. > > > > A few days ago I had 18 bets which would have returned $17 for $18 outlay > at level $1 stake, a smallish loss, but because of MBL, I could only get > $31 on the only collect at 17.0 while having more on each of the 17 losers > for a large loss. > > > > LBL > > > > *From:* Racing *On Behalf Of *sean mclaren > *Sent:* Friday, 6 December 2019 16:30 PM > *To:* AusRace Racing Discussion List > *Subject:* Re: [AusRace] One for Len > > > > old habits die hard lol > > > > On Fri, Dec 6, 2019 at 3:22 PM L.B.Loveday > wrote: > > Been out, returned just before the next bet (I've just 12 for the day) > Mudgee 6/10, 2.20 with B365 at 9:00:20am (they don't bet before the MBL > time). > > > > At scheduled jump time, 1.86 was top offered price and indicative BSP > 1.71. Final top offered price 1.88 and BSP 1.98. Final top Fixed Place > price was 1.70 from TAB. > > > > The other 10 are: > > > > Mudge 7/5 3.10P > > Randw 4/8 7.50P > > Mudge 8/15 11.0P > > MtGmb 5/9 7.50P > > Randw 5/8 8.00P > > Devon 4/7 4.20P > > Randw 6/7 2.30P LATE SCRATCHING, now 2 divs with Fixed Prices. > > MtGmb 8/1 2.50P > > MVall 4/1 4.00W > > SCoas 3/3 3.50P > > > > I'll be at the pub during the running of them all except Mudge 7, so no > reports will be forthcoming! > > > > > > > > *From:* Racing *On Behalf Of *sean mclaren > *Sent:* Friday, 6 December 2019 15:38 PM > *To:* AusRace Racing Discussion List > *Subject:* Re: [AusRace] One for Len > > > > Len > > > > The fact that you are doing this both before after the POC intro, is > excellent. > > > > Like fishing, you have to know the right spot lol. > > > > rgds Sean > > > > > > > > > > On Fri, Dec 6, 2019 at 1:47 PM L.B.Loveday > wrote: > > I average $120 for morning bets the Place at average odds of 5.9/1 (price > 6.9) - threepenny to some I guess, not to me. > > > > Considering only races with 8 or more runners, and no late scratchings > (it's too cumbersome to calculate would-be deductions, and in the case of > TAB, impossible), I average 38% better odds (19% price) than the top final > Place price from the 10 bookmakers I monitor. > > > > The next race after I read Ken's post was Mudgee 2, in which I backed #13 > at 3.30 for $150 at 8:12 this morning with Sportsbet who allow bets up to > MBL at any time. > > > > 5 minutes before scheduled jump time, there was $2,111 in the pool, and > the maximum one could win on any horse at the highest offered price was > $137. #13 was 3.50 top and indicative 4.58 BSP. > > > > At scheduled jump time, the prices were 3.15 and indicative BSP 4.01 > > > > Final price offered when they jumped was 3.00 (final pool $5,705) and > final BSP 3.15 (cf 4.01 indicative at scheduled jump time). Less 10% on > winnings = 2.935 (for those few on the top discount, it would be 3.064). > Final top Fixed Place price was 3.00 with TopSport. > > > > Then you have the effect your bet would have on the BSP - so sure, you can > get on, but what would #13 have paid if I'd put $150 on it? I have no idea, > but it would have been well under the 3.30 fixed morning price. > > > > I know one swallow does not a summer make, but this race is, in my > experience, typical. > > > > And don't forget that when you bet horses with Betfair, you are competing > with Zelko R, estimated by The Australian to account for 30%+ of Betfair > turnover! > > > > Here are market %ages for top Final Win prices for fields of >=8 runners, > no late scratchings: > > > > Final Average Win% book > > 11/2015 108.1 > > 11/2016 108.6 > > 11/2017 109.1 > > 11/2018 109.2 > > 11/2019 110.6 > > > > Final Average Win% book > > All 2015 107.8 > > All 2016 108.1 > > All 2017 109.1 > > All 2018 109.9 > > All 2019 109.7 > > > > Final average Place% book > > 11/2015 108.5 > > 11/2016 108.4 > > 11/2017 109.2 > > 11/2018 110.8 > > 11/2019 110.8 > > > > Final average Place% book > > All 2015 108.1 > > All 2016 107.6 > > All 2017 108.9 > > All 2018 109.8 > > All 2019 110.2 > > > > AND they are all net whereas apparent BetFair winning are reduced by > commission. > > > > In any case the only prices that should concern you are those about the > horse you want to back. > > > > For the last 3266 indicated Place bets from my selection system (8 or more > runners, ignoring races with late scratchings, and I don't get on them all): > > > > Return at top 9:00am Place price 1.109, at Final Place price 0.913, at > Betfair Final Place available: 0.81, at Betfair last price matched 0.94 - > from Dynamic Odds figures. > > > > > > > > *From:* Racing *On Behalf Of *Ken Blake > *Sent:* Friday, 6 December 2019 11:24 AM > *To:* 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' > *Subject:* Re: [AusRace] One for Len > > > > Mike?.I just don?t understand why anyone would have accounts with these > thieves, > > > > They are a cancer on the Australian wagering landscape, and most > annoyingly act with impunity most of the time. > > I understand Len?s Modus Operandi is early bet placement?but what?s the > point if you cannot get on or throttled back to threepenny wagers. > > > > I just don?t get it. At the end of the day weigh up Betfair starting Price > against Corporate opening prices?.over the journey you?re probably in front > with Betfair and at least you know you are going to get on. > > > > Ken > > > > > > *From:* Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com > ] *On Behalf Of *mikemcbain at tpg.com.au > *Sent:* Thursday, 5 December 2019 5:29 PM > *To:* racing at ausrace.com > *Subject:* [AusRace] One for Len > > > > > https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-05/bet365-whistleblower-says-winners-given-delays/11768486 > > _______________________________________________ > Racing mailing list > Racing at ausrace.com > http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com > > _______________________________________________ > Racing mailing list > Racing at ausrace.com > http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com > > _______________________________________________ > Racing mailing list > Racing at ausrace.com > http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From lloveday at ozemail.com.au Wed Dec 11 10:16:23 2019 From: lloveday at ozemail.com.au (L.B.Loveday) Date: Wed, 11 Dec 2019 10:16:23 +1100 Subject: [AusRace] PlayUp Message-ID: <000001d5afaf$d7f78c40$87e6a4c0$@ozemail.com.au> PlayUp are within their rights to reject this bet as it was before MBL, but they don't have the guts to be truthful, claiming it was rejected because of a price change. They check every bet, even $1 and they rejected a $1 bet with the same lame "Reason". But in very short time the prices are indeed changed, downwards of course - using "information" for free. Again a few swallows do not a summer make, but .. Quietest day for yonks yesterday - 3 bets only: Wagga 2/8 12.00 Place (BetfairSP 3.2) Unplaced BUT, getting the good price means that I saved money - I was restricted to $45 at MBL, would have bet more at lower price Ararat 2/3 5.00 Place (BetfairSP 3.15, but there was a scratching after I took 5.00, which would have been reduced by 14-16%, so taking 16%, I got 4.20) Unplaced Ararat 4/7 7.00 Place (BetfairSP 2.53) Placed And that does not take into account any effect that betting at BetfairSP may have caused - they surely would not have increased the paltry payouts! -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: image/png Size: 36421 bytes Desc: not available URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image002.png Type: image/png Size: 46508 bytes Desc: not available URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: oledata.mso Type: application/octet-stream Size: 62042 bytes Desc: not available URL: From conceptracing at bigpond.com Wed Dec 11 20:20:22 2019 From: conceptracing at bigpond.com (conceptracing at bigpond.com) Date: Wed, 11 Dec 2019 17:20:22 +0800 Subject: [AusRace] PlayUp In-Reply-To: <000001d5afaf$d7f78c40$87e6a4c0$@ozemail.com.au> References: <000001d5afaf$d7f78c40$87e6a4c0$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: <000001d5b004$38a98850$a9fc98f0$@bigpond.com> Len..have you tried phoning your bets thru?......you may be able to set yourself up better. Perhaps something like, I wish to have a wager in race 5 will you take a bet to lose $500.00? Ken From: Racing On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday Sent: Wednesday, 11 December 2019 7:16 AM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' Subject: [AusRace] PlayUp PlayUp are within their rights to reject this bet as it was before MBL, but they don't have the guts to be truthful, claiming it was rejected because of a price change. They check every bet, even $1 and they rejected a $1 bet with the same lame "Reason". But in very short time the prices are indeed changed, downwards of course - using "information" for free. Again a few swallows do not a summer make, but .. Quietest day for yonks yesterday - 3 bets only: Wagga 2/8 12.00 Place (BetfairSP 3.2) Unplaced BUT, getting the good price means that I saved money - I was restricted to $45 at MBL, would have bet more at lower price Ararat 2/3 5.00 Place (BetfairSP 3.15, but there was a scratching after I took 5.00, which would have been reduced by 14-16%, so taking 16%, I got 4.20) Unplaced Ararat 4/7 7.00 Place (BetfairSP 2.53) Placed And that does not take into account any effect that betting at BetfairSP may have caused - they surely would not have increased the paltry payouts! -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: image/png Size: 36421 bytes Desc: not available URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image002.png Type: image/png Size: 46508 bytes Desc: not available URL: From lloveday at ozemail.com.au Thu Dec 12 05:38:42 2019 From: lloveday at ozemail.com.au (L.B.Loveday) Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2019 05:38:42 +1100 Subject: [AusRace] PlayUp In-Reply-To: <000001d5b004$38a98850$a9fc98f0$@bigpond.com> References: <000001d5afaf$d7f78c40$87e6a4c0$@ozemail.com.au> <000001d5b004$38a98850$a9fc98f0$@bigpond.com> Message-ID: <000c01d5b052$3701a840$a504f8c0$@ozemail.com.au> Never, not with anyone. Thanks for the suggestion - may try. From: Racing On Behalf Of conceptracing at bigpond.com Sent: Wednesday, 11 December 2019 20:20 PM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' Subject: Re: [AusRace] PlayUp Len..have you tried phoning your bets thru?......you may be able to set yourself up better. Perhaps something like, I wish to have a wager in race 5 will you take a bet to lose $500.00? Ken From: Racing > On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday Sent: Wednesday, 11 December 2019 7:16 AM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' > Subject: [AusRace] PlayUp PlayUp are within their rights to reject this bet as it was before MBL, but they don't have the guts to be truthful, claiming it was rejected because of a price change. They check every bet, even $1 and they rejected a $1 bet with the same lame "Reason". But in very short time the prices are indeed changed, downwards of course - using "information" for free. Again a few swallows do not a summer make, but .. Quietest day for yonks yesterday - 3 bets only: Wagga 2/8 12.00 Place (BetfairSP 3.2) Unplaced BUT, getting the good price means that I saved money - I was restricted to $45 at MBL, would have bet more at lower price Ararat 2/3 5.00 Place (BetfairSP 3.15, but there was a scratching after I took 5.00, which would have been reduced by 14-16%, so taking 16%, I got 4.20) Unplaced Ararat 4/7 7.00 Place (BetfairSP 2.53) Placed And that does not take into account any effect that betting at BetfairSP may have caused - they surely would not have increased the paltry payouts! -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: image/png Size: 36421 bytes Desc: not available URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image002.png Type: image/png Size: 46508 bytes Desc: not available URL: From conceptracing at bigpond.com Fri Dec 13 14:22:59 2019 From: conceptracing at bigpond.com (Ken Blake) Date: Fri, 13 Dec 2019 11:22:59 +0800 Subject: [AusRace] Dr.Nick Message-ID: <000001d5b164$9f109e10$dd31da30$@bigpond.com> Nick Aubrey finally revealed !!! Bookmaker Rob Waterhouse estimates the exit of the mysterious professional punter known as Dr Nick from Australian racing will cause a stunning six percent drop in turnover on racing across the board. It has been said that Dr Nick, whose strength has partly stemmed from his anonymity, is a big whale punter in the realm of Zeljko Ranogajec who has bet perhaps billions of dollars on Australian racing. Waterhouse knows Dr Nick, whose identity is shrouded in secrecy, and says he has "closed down his Australian operation" which employed a large staff across many betting syndicates. Waterhouse blamed increased taxes on bookmakers, which in turn meant they were offering worse odds, for Dr Nick's decision to abandon Australian racing. And he said the flow-on impact could be disastrous for the racing industry. "What I do know is that Dr Nick has closed down his Australian operation," Waterhouse told Racenet. "I suspect he probably accounts for six percent of Australian (racing) turnover so you would lose that straight away. "I think his turnover through totes and pre-post and Betfair would be six percent (of total Australian turnover). "It must lead to a drop in prizemoney. "The real problem though is that it is a symptom of a disease, the taxes are just too high. "It is not just him, Sean Bartholomew has been the biggest punter at the races but now he has become a much smaller punter and concentrates on England and America. "Zeljko was the biggest punter in Australia still bets quite a lot, but nowhere near as big as he once did. "It is all in response to taxes." KB -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From lloveday at ozemail.com.au Sat Dec 14 10:52:40 2019 From: lloveday at ozemail.com.au (L.B.Loveday) Date: Sat, 14 Dec 2019 10:52:40 +1100 Subject: [AusRace] Dr.Nick In-Reply-To: <000001d5b164$9f109e10$dd31da30$@bigpond.com> References: <000001d5b164$9f109e10$dd31da30$@bigpond.com> Message-ID: <005601d5b210$67b454f0$371cfed0$@ozemail.com.au> Dr Nick regularly dropped into the Randwick High Value room, presumably to check in with those who put his bets on, back in the "good old days". Not then "shrouded in secrecy". I only spoke to him a couple of times, but enough to sum him up as a polite, unassuming person, and of course, smart. It was amusing the day he "pinched" a bottle of beer from me. TAB provided free soft drinks in a small fridge for customers, and I'd bring and store beer there some days for "Beer O'clock", starting an hour before the last on slow days (and days with late finishes, and maybe on other days). DrN must have thought TAB had slipped a few beers in, and took one. I feigned outrage to my operator (who used to be my Beer O'clock drinking partner) and she said, close to panic, "Don't say anything, he'd be so embarrassed" - a sign of the respect people had for him. "And he said the flow-on impact could be disastrous for the racing industry". Or not - depends to an extent on what those who now get better dividends do with the extra cash in their pockets. LBL From: Racing On Behalf Of Ken Blake Sent: Friday, 13 December 2019 14:23 PM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' Subject: [AusRace] Dr.Nick Nick Aubrey finally revealed !!! Bookmaker Rob Waterhouse estimates the exit of the mysterious professional punter known as Dr Nick from Australian racing will cause a stunning six percent drop in turnover on racing across the board. It has been said that Dr Nick, whose strength has partly stemmed from his anonymity, is a big whale punter in the realm of Zeljko Ranogajec who has bet perhaps billions of dollars on Australian racing. Waterhouse knows Dr Nick, whose identity is shrouded in secrecy, and says he has "closed down his Australian operation" which employed a large staff across many betting syndicates. Waterhouse blamed increased taxes on bookmakers, which in turn meant they were offering worse odds, for Dr Nick's decision to abandon Australian racing. And he said the flow-on impact could be disastrous for the racing industry. "What I do know is that Dr Nick has closed down his Australian operation," Waterhouse told Racenet. "I suspect he probably accounts for six percent of Australian (racing) turnover so you would lose that straight away. "I think his turnover through totes and pre-post and Betfair would be six percent (of total Australian turnover). "It must lead to a drop in prizemoney. "The real problem though is that it is a symptom of a disease, the taxes are just too high. "It is not just him, Sean Bartholomew has been the biggest punter at the races but now he has become a much smaller punter and concentrates on England and America. "Zeljko was the biggest punter in Australia still bets quite a lot, but nowhere near as big as he once did. "It is all in response to taxes." KB -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From norsaintpublishing at gmail.com Sat Dec 14 11:22:33 2019 From: norsaintpublishing at gmail.com (norsaintpublishing at gmail.com) Date: Sat, 14 Dec 2019 11:22:33 +1100 Subject: [AusRace] Dr.Nick In-Reply-To: <005601d5b210$67b454f0$371cfed0$@ozemail.com.au> References: <000001d5b164$9f109e10$dd31da30$@bigpond.com> <005601d5b210$67b454f0$371cfed0$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: Has the increased tax regime had any effect in curtailing your activity, Len? On Sat, 14 Dec 2019 at 10:53, L.B.Loveday wrote: > Dr Nick regularly dropped into the Randwick High Value room, presumably to > check in with those who put his bets on, back in the "good old days". Not > then "shrouded in secrecy". > > > > I only spoke to him a couple of times, but enough to sum him up as a > polite, unassuming person, and of course, smart. > > > > It was amusing the day he "pinched" a bottle of beer from me. TAB provided > free soft drinks in a small fridge for customers, and I'd bring and store > beer there some days for "Beer O'clock", starting an hour before the last > on slow days (and days with late finishes, and maybe on other days). DrN > must have thought TAB had slipped a few beers in, and took one. I feigned > outrage to my operator (who used to be my Beer O'clock drinking partner) > and she said, close to panic, "Don't say anything, he'd be so embarrassed" > - a sign of the respect people had for him. > > > > "And he said the flow-on impact could be disastrous for the racing > industry". Or not - depends to an extent on what those who now get better > dividends do with the extra cash in their pockets. > > > > LBL > > > > > > *From:* Racing *On Behalf Of *Ken Blake > *Sent:* Friday, 13 December 2019 14:23 PM > *To:* 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' > *Subject:* [AusRace] Dr.Nick > > > > > > Nick Aubrey finally revealed !!! > > > > Bookmaker Rob Waterhouse estimates the exit of the mysterious professional > punter known as Dr Nick from Australian racing will cause a stunning six > percent drop in turnover on racing across the board. > > It has been said that Dr Nick, whose strength has partly stemmed from his > anonymity, is a big whale punter in the realm of Zeljko Ranogajec who has > bet perhaps billions of dollars on Australian racing. > > Waterhouse knows Dr Nick, whose identity is shrouded in secrecy, and says > he has ?closed down his Australian operation? which employed a large staff > across many betting syndicates. > > Waterhouse blamed increased taxes on bookmakers, which in turn meant they > were offering worse odds, for Dr Nick?s decision to abandon Australian > racing. > > And he said the flow-on impact could be disastrous for the racing industry. > > ?What I do know is that Dr Nick has closed down his Australian operation,? > Waterhouse told Racenet. > > ?I suspect he probably accounts for six percent of Australian (racing) > turnover so you would lose that straight away. > > ?I think his turnover through totes and pre-post and Betfair would be six > percent (of total Australian turnover). > > ?It must lead to a drop in prizemoney. > > ?The real problem though is that it is a symptom of a disease, the taxes > are just too high. > > ?It is not just him, Sean Bartholomew has been the biggest punter at the > races but now he has become a much smaller punter and concentrates on > England and America. > > ?Zeljko was the biggest punter in Australia still bets quite a lot, but > nowhere near as big as he once did. > > ?It is all in response to taxes.? > > KB > > > _______________________________________________ > Racing mailing list > Racing at ausrace.com > http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From lloveday at ozemail.com.au Sat Dec 14 11:41:22 2019 From: lloveday at ozemail.com.au (L.B.Loveday) Date: Sat, 14 Dec 2019 11:41:22 +1100 Subject: [AusRace] Dr.Nick In-Reply-To: References: <000001d5b164$9f109e10$dd31da30$@bigpond.com> <005601d5b210$67b454f0$371cfed0$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: <006701d5b217$35be17e0$a13a47a0$@ozemail.com.au> Decimated profit. And Dr Nick is not the only really big punter who has put his cue in the rack this year. Richard Irvine pretty well led the charge to get MBL, which at least lets everyone bet, for now. But what about this? The POC was started by the strongest challenge to SH-Y for the dumbest politician in Australia, Turbo Tom, SA's then Treasurer - eagerly followed by other states, not the racing industry. From: Racing On Behalf Of norsaintpublishing at gmail.com Sent: Saturday, 14 December 2019 11:23 AM To: AusRace Racing Discussion List Subject: Re: [AusRace] Dr.Nick Has the increased tax regime had any effect in curtailing your activity, Len? On Sat, 14 Dec 2019 at 10:53, L.B.Loveday > wrote: Dr Nick regularly dropped into the Randwick High Value room, presumably to check in with those who put his bets on, back in the "good old days". Not then "shrouded in secrecy". I only spoke to him a couple of times, but enough to sum him up as a polite, unassuming person, and of course, smart. It was amusing the day he "pinched" a bottle of beer from me. TAB provided free soft drinks in a small fridge for customers, and I'd bring and store beer there some days for "Beer O'clock", starting an hour before the last on slow days (and days with late finishes, and maybe on other days). DrN must have thought TAB had slipped a few beers in, and took one. I feigned outrage to my operator (who used to be my Beer O'clock drinking partner) and she said, close to panic, "Don't say anything, he'd be so embarrassed" - a sign of the respect people had for him. "And he said the flow-on impact could be disastrous for the racing industry". Or not - depends to an extent on what those who now get better dividends do with the extra cash in their pockets. LBL From: Racing On Behalf Of Ken Blake Sent: Friday, 13 December 2019 14:23 PM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' > Subject: [AusRace] Dr.Nick Nick Aubrey finally revealed !!! Bookmaker Rob Waterhouse estimates the exit of the mysterious professional punter known as Dr Nick from Australian racing will cause a stunning six percent drop in turnover on racing across the board. It has been said that Dr Nick, whose strength has partly stemmed from his anonymity, is a big whale punter in the realm of Zeljko Ranogajec who has bet perhaps billions of dollars on Australian racing. Waterhouse knows Dr Nick, whose identity is shrouded in secrecy, and says he has ?closed down his Australian operation? which employed a large staff across many betting syndicates. Waterhouse blamed increased taxes on bookmakers, which in turn meant they were offering worse odds, for Dr Nick?s decision to abandon Australian racing. And he said the flow-on impact could be disastrous for the racing industry. ?What I do know is that Dr Nick has closed down his Australian operation,? Waterhouse told Racenet. ?I suspect he probably accounts for six percent of Australian (racing) turnover so you would lose that straight away. ?I think his turnover through totes and pre-post and Betfair would be six percent (of total Australian turnover). ?It must lead to a drop in prizemoney. ?The real problem though is that it is a symptom of a disease, the taxes are just too high. ?It is not just him, Sean Bartholomew has been the biggest punter at the races but now he has become a much smaller punter and concentrates on England and America. ?Zeljko was the biggest punter in Australia still bets quite a lot, but nowhere near as big as he once did. ?It is all in response to taxes.? KB _______________________________________________ Racing mailing list Racing at ausrace.com http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... 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Name: image004.png Type: image/png Size: 27948 bytes Desc: not available URL: From lloveday at ozemail.com.au Sat Dec 14 12:26:31 2019 From: lloveday at ozemail.com.au (L.B.Loveday) Date: Sat, 14 Dec 2019 12:26:31 +1100 Subject: [AusRace] Dr.Nick In-Reply-To: <006701d5b217$35be17e0$a13a47a0$@ozemail.com.au> References: <000001d5b164$9f109e10$dd31da30$@bigpond.com> <005601d5b210$67b454f0$371cfed0$@ozemail.com.au> <006701d5b217$35be17e0$a13a47a0$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: <007201d5b21d$84430c80$8cc92580$@ozemail.com.au> Nick - that may be taken as if the "really big punter" is Irvine; not to whom I referred. From: Racing On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday Sent: Saturday, 14 December 2019 11:41 AM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' Subject: Re: [AusRace] Dr.Nick Decimated profit. And Dr Nick is not the only really big punter who has put his cue in the rack this year. Richard Irvine pretty well led the charge to get MBL, which at least lets everyone bet, for now. But what about this? The POC was started by the strongest challenge to SH-Y for the dumbest politician in Australia, Turbo Tom, SA's then Treasurer - eagerly followed by other states, not the racing industry. From: Racing On Behalf Of norsaintpublishing at gmail.com Sent: Saturday, 14 December 2019 11:23 AM To: AusRace Racing Discussion List > Subject: Re: [AusRace] Dr.Nick Has the increased tax regime had any effect in curtailing your activity, Len? On Sat, 14 Dec 2019 at 10:53, L.B.Loveday > wrote: Dr Nick regularly dropped into the Randwick High Value room, presumably to check in with those who put his bets on, back in the "good old days". Not then "shrouded in secrecy". I only spoke to him a couple of times, but enough to sum him up as a polite, unassuming person, and of course, smart. It was amusing the day he "pinched" a bottle of beer from me. TAB provided free soft drinks in a small fridge for customers, and I'd bring and store beer there some days for "Beer O'clock", starting an hour before the last on slow days (and days with late finishes, and maybe on other days). DrN must have thought TAB had slipped a few beers in, and took one. I feigned outrage to my operator (who used to be my Beer O'clock drinking partner) and she said, close to panic, "Don't say anything, he'd be so embarrassed" - a sign of the respect people had for him. "And he said the flow-on impact could be disastrous for the racing industry". Or not - depends to an extent on what those who now get better dividends do with the extra cash in their pockets. LBL From: Racing On Behalf Of Ken Blake Sent: Friday, 13 December 2019 14:23 PM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' > Subject: [AusRace] Dr.Nick Nick Aubrey finally revealed !!! Bookmaker Rob Waterhouse estimates the exit of the mysterious professional punter known as Dr Nick from Australian racing will cause a stunning six percent drop in turnover on racing across the board. It has been said that Dr Nick, whose strength has partly stemmed from his anonymity, is a big whale punter in the realm of Zeljko Ranogajec who has bet perhaps billions of dollars on Australian racing. Waterhouse knows Dr Nick, whose identity is shrouded in secrecy, and says he has ?closed down his Australian operation? which employed a large staff across many betting syndicates. Waterhouse blamed increased taxes on bookmakers, which in turn meant they were offering worse odds, for Dr Nick?s decision to abandon Australian racing. And he said the flow-on impact could be disastrous for the racing industry. ?What I do know is that Dr Nick has closed down his Australian operation,? Waterhouse told Racenet. ?I suspect he probably accounts for six percent of Australian (racing) turnover so you would lose that straight away. ?I think his turnover through totes and pre-post and Betfair would be six percent (of total Australian turnover). ?It must lead to a drop in prizemoney. ?The real problem though is that it is a symptom of a disease, the taxes are just too high. ?It is not just him, Sean Bartholomew has been the biggest punter at the races but now he has become a much smaller punter and concentrates on England and America. ?Zeljko was the biggest punter in Australia still bets quite a lot, but nowhere near as big as he once did. ?It is all in response to taxes.? KB _______________________________________________ Racing mailing list Racing at ausrace.com http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... 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Name: image004.png Type: image/png Size: 27948 bytes Desc: not available URL: From greg.j.conroy at gmail.com Sun Dec 15 05:53:53 2019 From: greg.j.conroy at gmail.com (Greg Conroy) Date: Sun, 15 Dec 2019 05:53:53 +1100 Subject: [AusRace] Dr.Nick In-Reply-To: <007201d5b21d$84430c80$8cc92580$@ozemail.com.au> References: <000001d5b164$9f109e10$dd31da30$@bigpond.com> <005601d5b210$67b454f0$371cfed0$@ozemail.com.au> <006701d5b217$35be17e0$a13a47a0$@ozemail.com.au> <007201d5b21d$84430c80$8cc92580$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: A couple of things. 1. I know someone that works (well did until 2pm last Wednesday) for Dr Nick. 2. The issue is that he simply can?t ?get on? to cover his outlays [100 staff costs ~ $100K a day] and there?s much more profit to be made O/S, specifically South Korea and UK for him. For those other ?pros? whinging about finding it hard: 1. You have it wrong IMO - targeting the wrong areas. My service has delivered between 234 units and 363 units (and up to 466 units) of PROFIT in the last 30 days alone across 1019 tips. And I?ve tipped over 8,000 races now - so my results stack up statistically. www.holygrail.club On 14 Dec 2019, 12:27 PM +1100, L.B.Loveday , wrote: > Nick - that may be taken as if the "really big punter" is Irvine; not to whom I referred. > > From: Racing On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday > Sent: Saturday, 14 December 2019 11:41 AM > To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' > Subject: Re: [AusRace] Dr.Nick > > Decimated profit. And Dr Nick is not the only really big punter who has put his cue in the rack this year. > > Richard Irvine pretty well led the charge to get MBL, which at least lets everyone bet, for now. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: LTM All Selection 15 Nov to 14 Dec.PNG Type: image/png Size: 92384 bytes Desc: not available URL: From lloveday at ozemail.com.au Sun Dec 15 06:31:50 2019 From: lloveday at ozemail.com.au (L.B.Loveday) Date: Sun, 15 Dec 2019 06:31:50 +1100 Subject: [AusRace] Dr.Nick In-Reply-To: References: <000001d5b164$9f109e10$dd31da30$@bigpond.com> <005601d5b210$67b454f0$371cfed0$@ozemail.com.au> <006701d5b217$35be17e0$a13a47a0$@ozemail.com.au> <007201d5b21d$84430c80$8cc92580$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: <001e01d5b2b5$223793b0$66a6bb10$@ozemail.com.au> $1,000 AVERAGE staff cost per day! I know there are costs other than wages, but?. From: Racing On Behalf Of Greg Conroy Sent: Sunday, 15 December 2019 5:54 AM To: AusRace Racing Discussion List Subject: Re: [AusRace] Dr.Nick A couple of things. 1. I know someone that works (well did until 2pm last Wednesday) for Dr Nick. 2. The issue is that he simply can?t ?get on? to cover his outlays [100 staff costs ~ $100K a day] and there?s much more profit to be made O/S, specifically South Korea and UK for him. For those other ?pros? whinging about finding it hard: 1. You have it wrong IMO - targeting the wrong areas. My service has delivered between 234 units and 363 units (and up to 466 units) of PROFIT in the last 30 days alone across 1019 tips. And I?ve tipped over 8,000 races now - so my results stack up statistically. www.holygrail.club On 14 Dec 2019, 12:27 PM +1100, L.B.Loveday >, wrote: Nick - that may be taken as if the "really big punter" is Irvine; not to whom I referred. From: Racing On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday Sent: Saturday, 14 December 2019 11:41 AM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' > Subject: Re: [AusRace] Dr.Nick Decimated profit. And Dr Nick is not the only really big punter who has put his cue in the rack this year. Richard Irvine pretty well led the charge to get MBL, which at least lets everyone bet, for now. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: image/png Size: 92384 bytes Desc: not available URL: From greg.j.conroy at gmail.com Sun Dec 15 06:53:41 2019 From: greg.j.conroy at gmail.com (Greg Conroy) Date: Sun, 15 Dec 2019 06:53:41 +1100 Subject: [AusRace] Dr.Nick In-Reply-To: <001e01d5b2b5$223793b0$66a6bb10$@ozemail.com.au> References: <000001d5b164$9f109e10$dd31da30$@bigpond.com> <005601d5b210$67b454f0$371cfed0$@ozemail.com.au> <006701d5b217$35be17e0$a13a47a0$@ozemail.com.au> <007201d5b21d$84430c80$8cc92580$@ozemail.com.au> <001e01d5b2b5$223793b0$66a6bb10$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: Absolutely ? dozens of commission agents travelling around the country for example. On 15 Dec 2019, 6:32 AM +1100, L.B.Loveday , wrote: > $1,000 AVERAGE staff cost per day! I know there are costs other than wages, but?. > > From: Racing On Behalf Of Greg Conroy > Sent: Sunday, 15 December 2019 5:54 AM > To: AusRace Racing Discussion List > Subject: Re: [AusRace] Dr.Nick > > A couple of things. > > > 1. I know someone that works (well did until 2pm last Wednesday) for Dr Nick. > 2. The issue is that he simply can?t ?get on? to cover his outlays [100 staff costs ~ $100K a day] and there?s much more profit to be made O/S, specifically South Korea and UK for him. > > For those other ?pros? whinging about finding it hard: > > > 1. You have it wrong IMO - targeting the wrong areas. > > My service has delivered between 234 units and 363 units (and up to 466 units) of PROFIT in the last 30 days alone across 1019 tips. > > And I?ve tipped over 8,000 races now - so my results stack up statistically. > > www.holygrail.club > > > On 14 Dec 2019, 12:27 PM +1100, L.B.Loveday , wrote: > > > Nick - that may be taken as if the "really big punter" is Irvine; not to whom I referred. > > > > From: Racing On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday > > Sent: Saturday, 14 December 2019 11:41 AM > > To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' > > Subject: Re: [AusRace] Dr.Nick > > > > Decimated profit. And Dr Nick is not the only really big punter who has put his cue in the rack this year. > > > > Richard Irvine pretty well led the charge to get MBL, which at least lets everyone bet, for now. > _______________________________________________ > Racing mailing list > Racing at ausrace.com > http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From lloveday at ozemail.com.au Sun Dec 15 08:23:17 2019 From: lloveday at ozemail.com.au (L.B.Loveday) Date: Sun, 15 Dec 2019 08:23:17 +1100 Subject: [AusRace] Dr.Nick In-Reply-To: References: <000001d5b164$9f109e10$dd31da30$@bigpond.com> <005601d5b210$67b454f0$371cfed0$@ozemail.com.au> <006701d5b217$35be17e0$a13a47a0$@ozemail.com.au> <007201d5b21d$84430c80$8cc92580$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: <003501d5b2c4$b423d900$1c6b8b00$@ozemail.com.au> Those " other ?pros? whinging about finding it hard" are whinging in the main against the POC tax, imo the most immoral tax since the BAD and FID(dle) taxes, maybe worse, and the increase in "product fees" by the race clubs. But bookmakers are also, rightly, "whinging" about these impositions. The challenger to Hanson-Young as the dumbest politician in Australia, Turbo Tom Koutsantonis (60 speeding offences, $10,000 in fines, appointed Road Safety Minister! when he still had overdue fines unpaid), justified the introduction of the POC tax by claiming bookmakers don't pay enough tax, and his sickening "innovation" was shortly followed by other states. Bookmakers pay a myriad of taxes, and employ thousands of people who pay income tax (effectively paid by the bookmakers as PAYG deductions - if they were not employed, that tax would not be paid). To say, as Turbo did, that bookmakers pay the POC, not punters, is as ludicrous as saying Coles, not customers, pay GST on their purchases; but the truth would be beyond his comprehension. I read that B365 made no profit on its Australian race operations last year, but they certainly generated a good inflow to the government coffers to be wasted on "woke" activities. Others are, I hear, also doing it hard - look at the recent demises and takeovers/amalgamations. TopSport highlights the loss of racing turnover to sports betting as a natural consequence of the tax and other money grabs from racing punters. Unless bookmakers can make a profit, they will not stay in business and greedy, ignorant governments as well as the race club top management will get their just deserts, most of their employees will likely be on the dole or making less money & hence paying less tax - income tax obviously, but also GST and some of the 101 other taxes levied by governments at all levels to fund waste, because of having less money to spend. Irvine was right to lead the fight for MBL, and I thank him from the bottom of my thin wallet for that, and he's right to "whinge" about the POC and "product fees". LBL From: Racing On Behalf Of Greg Conroy Sent: Sunday, 15 December 2019 5:54 AM To: AusRace Racing Discussion List Subject: Re: [AusRace] Dr.Nick A couple of things. 1. I know someone that works (well did until 2pm last Wednesday) for Dr Nick. 2. The issue is that he simply can?t ?get on? to cover his outlays [100 staff costs ~ $100K a day] and there?s much more profit to be made O/S, specifically South Korea and UK for him. For those other ?pros? whinging about finding it hard: 1. You have it wrong IMO - targeting the wrong areas. My service has delivered between 234 units and 363 units (and up to 466 units) of PROFIT in the last 30 days alone across 1019 tips. And I?ve tipped over 8,000 races now - so my results stack up statistically. www.holygrail.club On 14 Dec 2019, 12:27 PM +1100, L.B.Loveday >, wrote: Nick - that may be taken as if the "really big punter" is Irvine; not to whom I referred. From: Racing On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday Sent: Saturday, 14 December 2019 11:41 AM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' > Subject: Re: [AusRace] Dr.Nick Decimated profit. And Dr Nick is not the only really big punter who has put his cue in the rack this year. Richard Irvine pretty well led the charge to get MBL, which at least lets everyone bet, for now. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: image/png Size: 92384 bytes Desc: not available URL: From lloveday at ozemail.com.au Sun Dec 15 09:34:43 2019 From: lloveday at ozemail.com.au (L.B.Loveday) Date: Sun, 15 Dec 2019 09:34:43 +1100 Subject: [AusRace] PlayUp Message-ID: <004a01d5b2ce$aebf5700$0c3e0500$@ozemail.com.au> To see what they did, I put $1 the Place @ 15.0 on SC 8/12 and PlayUp turned it from 61/15 to 34/9. Can anyone be more pathetic? They simultaneously think I'm so good as to justify such a reduction and small-time and, or stupid enough to bet $1. LBL -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From seanmac4321 at gmail.com Sun Dec 15 10:53:29 2019 From: seanmac4321 at gmail.com (sean mclaren) Date: Sun, 15 Dec 2019 09:53:29 +1000 Subject: [AusRace] PlayUp In-Reply-To: <004a01d5b2ce$aebf5700$0c3e0500$@ozemail.com.au> References: <004a01d5b2ce$aebf5700$0c3e0500$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: out of interest Len did any of the others get rolled out? On Sun, Dec 15, 2019 at 8:35 AM L.B.Loveday wrote: > To see what they did, I put $1 the Place @ 15.0 on SC 8/12 and PlayUp > turned it from 61/15 to 34/9. Can anyone be more pathetic? They > simultaneously think I'm so good as to justify such a reduction and > small-time and, or stupid enough to bet $1. > > > > LBL > _______________________________________________ > Racing mailing list > Racing at ausrace.com > http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From lloveday at ozemail.com.au Mon Dec 16 07:12:29 2019 From: lloveday at ozemail.com.au (L.B.Loveday) Date: Mon, 16 Dec 2019 07:12:29 +1100 Subject: [AusRace] The blows keep coming Message-ID: <001b01d5b383$fa25b300$ee711900$@ozemail.com.au> More bad news - SportsBet have downgraded me (well-deserved I might add) and no longer reduce prices when I bet. Another blow! LBL -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From peter_dean34 at hotmail.com Tue Dec 17 18:26:42 2019 From: peter_dean34 at hotmail.com (Peter Dean) Date: Tue, 17 Dec 2019 07:26:42 +0000 Subject: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB Message-ID: Hi, Looking for advice on how to avg. about 12% better than what you would receive on the TAB for a favourite. Betfair SP advertises they achieve 14% or so in general, not sure how this applies specifically to favourites. Are there other better ways that people are happy to advise on. Thanks in advance, Peter -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From RaceStats at hotmail.com Tue Dec 17 19:16:38 2019 From: RaceStats at hotmail.com (Race Stats) Date: Tue, 17 Dec 2019 08:16:38 +0000 Subject: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Hi Peter, We would all be rich, if that were the case. Firstly you deduct commission from their 14% One can have a $1.10 favourite or an $8.00 favourite, and the drifters make up this 14%. They do not tell you what percentage minus commission they get on WINNERS!!! Lindsay From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Peter Dean Sent: Tuesday, 17 December 2019 6:27 PM To: AusRace Racing Discussion List Subject: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB Hi, Looking for advice on how to avg. about 12% better than what you would receive on the TAB for a favourite. Betfair SP advertises they achieve 14% or so in general, not sure how this applies specifically to favourites. Are there other better ways that people are happy to advise on. Thanks in advance, Peter -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From peter_dean34 at hotmail.com Tue Dec 17 20:28:49 2019 From: peter_dean34 at hotmail.com (Peter Dean) Date: Tue, 17 Dec 2019 09:28:49 +0000 Subject: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB In-Reply-To: References: , Message-ID: Thanks Lindsay. From my analysis of a years betting data with Betfair SP I get plus 9% over TAB dividend after commission, they were not all favs but well in the market and within top three favs. This turns out the same as VicBets BOB but I am needing more volume to get turnover up without raising stake and for me that comes with a lower winning percentage so I need to eek out a few more percent to stay in small profit on turnover. Just thought I might be missing something out there that I dont know about. Get Outlook for Android ________________________________ From: Racing on behalf of Race Stats Sent: Tuesday, December 17, 2019 7:16:38 PM To: AusRace Racing Discussion List Subject: Re: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB Hi Peter, We would all be rich, if that were the case. Firstly you deduct commission from their 14% One can have a $1.10 favourite or an $8.00 favourite, and the drifters make up this 14%. They do not tell you what percentage minus commission they get on WINNERS!!! Lindsay From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Peter Dean Sent: Tuesday, 17 December 2019 6:27 PM To: AusRace Racing Discussion List Subject: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB Hi, Looking for advice on how to avg. about 12% better than what you would receive on the TAB for a favourite. Betfair SP advertises they achieve 14% or so in general, not sure how this applies specifically to favourites. Are there other better ways that people are happy to advise on. Thanks in advance, Peter -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From lloveday at ozemail.com.au Tue Dec 17 20:34:14 2019 From: lloveday at ozemail.com.au (L.B.Loveday) Date: Tue, 17 Dec 2019 20:34:14 +1100 Subject: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <000001d5b4bd$25a3ad40$70eb07c0$@ozemail.com.au> Peter, you are still around! Quick and maybe a little dirty (any one old enough to remember QDOS?) I isolated 13735 favourites in TAB races this YTD for which I had TAB (NSW) dividend/price for the winner, outright Fav only (no equal), no late scratchings (after I collect fixed prices at around 9am Qld, NSW, Vic, Tas, SA, NT, after scratchings are in for WA ), no Dead Heats. 4806 won, the de rigueur 35% strike rate. Top morning fixed price for those 4806 was on average 21% greater than TAB. Top fixed morning odds for those 4806 was on average 43% greater than TAB. How you determine what will be favourite at 9am is in your hands. Betfair SP can be affected by your bet, especially with big bets (and don't forget their disclaimer "Price comparison removes Betfair commission charges" - that commission is as high as 10%), as can TAB dividend. LBL From: Racing On Behalf Of Peter Dean Sent: Tuesday, 17 December 2019 18:27 PM To: AusRace Racing Discussion List Subject: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB Hi, Looking for advice on how to avg. about 12% better than what you would receive on the TAB for a favourite. Betfair SP advertises they achieve 14% or so in general, not sure how this applies specifically to favourites. Are there other better ways that people are happy to advise on. Thanks in advance, Peter -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From peter_dean34 at hotmail.com Tue Dec 17 21:02:21 2019 From: peter_dean34 at hotmail.com (Peter Dean) Date: Tue, 17 Dec 2019 10:02:21 +0000 Subject: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB In-Reply-To: <000001d5b4bd$25a3ad40$70eb07c0$@ozemail.com.au> References: , <000001d5b4bd$25a3ad40$70eb07c0$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: Yeah, still kicking Len. I monitored the morning fixed and for my selections it ended 7% over so was a bit worse than BSP and VicBet BOB. I like your 21% but I guess if I was that smart and knew who would be fav at 9am I could just lay and crush. As you say, the bet size impacts BSP hence I am trying to kick up turnover with bet volume rather than raising stake. Hmmmm.. need to keep pondering. Get Outlook for Android ________________________________ From: Racing on behalf of L.B.Loveday Sent: Tuesday, December 17, 2019 8:34:14 PM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' Subject: Re: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB Peter, you are still around! Quick and maybe a little dirty (any one old enough to remember QDOS?) I isolated 13735 favourites in TAB races this YTD for which I had TAB (NSW) dividend/price for the winner, outright Fav only (no equal), no late scratchings (after I collect fixed prices at around 9am Qld, NSW, Vic, Tas, SA, NT, after scratchings are in for WA ), no Dead Heats. 4806 won, the de rigueur 35% strike rate. Top morning fixed price for those 4806 was on average 21% greater than TAB. Top fixed morning odds for those 4806 was on average 43% greater than TAB. How you determine what will be favourite at 9am is in your hands. Betfair SP can be affected by your bet, especially with big bets (and don't forget their disclaimer "Price comparison removes Betfair commission charges" - that commission is as high as 10%), as can TAB dividend. LBL From: Racing On Behalf Of Peter Dean Sent: Tuesday, 17 December 2019 18:27 PM To: AusRace Racing Discussion List Subject: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB Hi, Looking for advice on how to avg. about 12% better than what you would receive on the TAB for a favourite. Betfair SP advertises they achieve 14% or so in general, not sure how this applies specifically to favourites. Are there other better ways that people are happy to advise on. Thanks in advance, Peter -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From seanmac4321 at gmail.com Wed Dec 18 07:29:55 2019 From: seanmac4321 at gmail.com (sean mclaren) Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2019 06:29:55 +1000 Subject: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB In-Reply-To: <000001d5b4bd$25a3ad40$70eb07c0$@ozemail.com.au> References: <000001d5b4bd$25a3ad40$70eb07c0$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: hello len a wealth of info, as usual; i see. i didn't see that coming i must admit. Peter, i concede; that being able to predict the fav at 9.00 am; is difficult. Can I preface that by, if you haven't tried. I have data, lots of it. So I went and attempted to do just that, some time back. The exercise was simply to improve my understanding of the wagering landscape. At the time, it wasn't an attempt to form any sort of wagering strategy. Can I predict the favourite? What factors contribute to the arrival of the fav? Part of my daily routine sees me modelling, from time to time; different sets of data. Sometimes it's a blessing, sometimes it can be a curse. Having loads of data, that is. Getting lost in the sea of data lol. The results were positive. I would encourage you Peter, and anyone else for that matter; to simply practice. Keep, what the MBA types call, a decision making journal. (michael mauboussin) A notepad, a spreadsheet ..... whatever. Draw up column headings with MAIN factors. Don't go wide. Simply use a Form Guide. A wealth of information at a glance. Yes, you can use the 100 Score/Rating that's published. In arriving at MAIN factors, to start with, simply use what you THINK. As you move forward, perhaps it ain't what it seems. I think it's Rob W, who coined the phrase " the lie of the eye". In this case, maybe "the lie of what you think". As the results flow, perhaps leave as is, if some other factor pops up, then add to the side. Even restart the cycle, with that added factor; if you want. Peter, if you followed this exercise; your ability to predict the favourite; surely has changed. Do I need to say, we are not looking at winning favs here, simply what is the FAV. The purpose of me putting pen to paper, apologies for the wordiness; is to simply challenge people's thinking. And hopefully lead to better wagering. Ponder this, sitting there at 8.45 am and seeing that your top selection is on the 3rd line. And, you predict your selection will be the SP Fav. Ignore that it's your selection even. Your selection is pre post Fav, and you predict another horse will be Fav. Gotta stop. You can predict the fav. You won't do it with 100% accuracy. The point is, your thinking has changed. And it follows that you will make better wagering decisions. . having software would surely On Tue, Dec 17, 2019 at 7:34 PM L.B.Loveday wrote: > Peter, you are still around! > > > > Quick and maybe a little dirty (any one old enough to remember QDOS?) > > > > I isolated 13735 favourites in TAB races this YTD for which I had TAB > (NSW) dividend/price for the winner, outright Fav only (no equal), no late > scratchings (after I collect fixed prices at around 9am Qld, NSW, Vic, Tas, > SA, NT, after scratchings are in for WA ), no Dead Heats. > > > > 4806 won, the de rigueur 35% strike rate. > > > > Top morning fixed price for those 4806 was on average 21% greater than > TAB. Top fixed morning odds for those 4806 was on average 43% greater than > TAB. > > > > How you determine what will be favourite at 9am is in your hands. > > > > Betfair SP can be affected by your bet, especially with big bets (and > don't forget their disclaimer "*Price comparison removes Betfair > commission charges" **- that commission is as high as 10%), as can TAB > dividend.* > > > > *LBL* > > > > > > > > *From:* Racing *On Behalf Of *Peter Dean > *Sent:* Tuesday, 17 December 2019 18:27 PM > *To:* AusRace Racing Discussion List > *Subject:* [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB > > > > Hi, > > > > Looking for advice on how to avg. about 12% better than what you would > receive on the TAB for a favourite. > > > > Betfair SP advertises they achieve 14% or so in general, not sure how this > applies specifically to favourites. Are there other better ways that people > are happy to advise on. > > > > Thanks in advance, > > > > Peter > _______________________________________________ > Racing mailing list > Racing at ausrace.com > http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com > -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From lloveday at ozemail.com.au Wed Dec 18 12:55:11 2019 From: lloveday at ozemail.com.au (L.B.Loveday) Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2019 12:55:11 +1100 Subject: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB In-Reply-To: References: <000001d5b4bd$25a3ad40$70eb07c0$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: <000401d5b546$2f028490$8d078db0$@ozemail.com.au> You can download final BSP on DO, and they display "Projected SP" (Win) during betting, which has a tenuous relationship to those displayed on BF's site - even with my refresh rate set at 5 sec, it is waste of time other than to capture finals, but I'll not be doing that. They don't display Projected SP (Place). Nowhere have I seen a display of how much is matched at BSP, or even an indication, and I think it is misleading for BF to display: which suggests, to me, that the volume matched for the BSP was $230,969/$11,472, when they were for the normal win and place bets, not BSP. Why are they not displaying BSP volume? Can't be too hard! From: Racing On Behalf Of sean mclaren Sent: Wednesday, 18 December 2019 7:30 AM To: AusRace Racing Discussion List Subject: Re: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB hello len a wealth of info, as usual; i see. i didn't see that coming i must admit. Peter, i concede; that being able to predict the fav at 9.00 am; is difficult. Can I preface that by, if you haven't tried. I have data, lots of it. So I went and attempted to do just that, some time back. The exercise was simply to improve my understanding of the wagering landscape. At the time, it wasn't an attempt to form any sort of wagering strategy. Can I predict the favourite? What factors contribute to the arrival of the fav? Part of my daily routine sees me modelling, from time to time; different sets of data. Sometimes it's a blessing, sometimes it can be a curse. Having loads of data, that is. Getting lost in the sea of data lol. The results were positive. I would encourage you Peter, and anyone else for that matter; to simply practice. Keep, what the MBA types call, a decision making journal. (michael mauboussin) A notepad, a spreadsheet ..... whatever. Draw up column headings with MAIN factors. Don't go wide. Simply use a Form Guide. A wealth of information at a glance. Yes, you can use the 100 Score/Rating that's published. In arriving at MAIN factors, to start with, simply use what you THINK. As you move forward, perhaps it ain't what it seems. I think it's Rob W, who coined the phrase " the lie of the eye". In this case, maybe "the lie of what you think". As the results flow, perhaps leave as is, if some other factor pops up, then add to the side. Even restart the cycle, with that added factor; if you want. Peter, if you followed this exercise; your ability to predict the favourite; surely has changed. Do I need to say, we are not looking at winning favs here, simply what is the FAV. The purpose of me putting pen to paper, apologies for the wordiness; is to simply challenge people's thinking. And hopefully lead to better wagering. Ponder this, sitting there at 8.45 am and seeing that your top selection is on the 3rd line. And, you predict your selection will be the SP Fav. Ignore that it's your selection even. Your selection is pre post Fav, and you predict another horse will be Fav. Gotta stop. You can predict the fav. You won't do it with 100% accuracy. The point is, your thinking has changed. And it follows that you will make better wagering decisions. . having software would surely On Tue, Dec 17, 2019 at 7:34 PM L.B.Loveday > wrote: Peter, you are still around! Quick and maybe a little dirty (any one old enough to remember QDOS?) I isolated 13735 favourites in TAB races this YTD for which I had TAB (NSW) dividend/price for the winner, outright Fav only (no equal), no late scratchings (after I collect fixed prices at around 9am Qld, NSW, Vic, Tas, SA, NT, after scratchings are in for WA ), no Dead Heats. 4806 won, the de rigueur 35% strike rate. Top morning fixed price for those 4806 was on average 21% greater than TAB. Top fixed morning odds for those 4806 was on average 43% greater than TAB. How you determine what will be favourite at 9am is in your hands. Betfair SP can be affected by your bet, especially with big bets (and don't forget their disclaimer "Price comparison removes Betfair commission charges" - that commission is as high as 10%), as can TAB dividend. LBL From: Racing On Behalf Of Peter Dean Sent: Tuesday, 17 December 2019 18:27 PM To: AusRace Racing Discussion List > Subject: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB Hi, Looking for advice on how to avg. about 12% better than what you would receive on the TAB for a favourite. Betfair SP advertises they achieve 14% or so in general, not sure how this applies specifically to favourites. Are there other better ways that people are happy to advise on. Thanks in advance, Peter _______________________________________________ Racing mailing list Racing at ausrace.com http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: image/png Size: 12926 bytes Desc: not available URL: From RaceStats at hotmail.com Wed Dec 18 13:44:21 2019 From: RaceStats at hotmail.com (Race Stats) Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2019 02:44:21 +0000 Subject: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB In-Reply-To: <000401d5b546$2f028490$8d078db0$@ozemail.com.au> References: <000001d5b4bd$25a3ad40$70eb07c0$@ozemail.com.au> <000401d5b546$2f028490$8d078db0$@ozemail.com.au> Message-ID: And there is another example Peter, BSP $2.48 minus commission, Best Tote $2.70, opened at $3.90, drifted to $4.00 before being backed in. Mediated was opening favourite and ran nowhere. The 14% quoted by Betfair is rubbish on favourites. In this case you lost 8.1% plus commission betting with Betfair! Lindsay From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday Sent: Wednesday, 18 December 2019 12:55 PM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' Subject: Re: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB You can download final BSP on DO, and they display "Projected SP" (Win) during betting, which has a tenuous relationship to those displayed on BF's site - even with my refresh rate set at 5 sec, it is waste of time other than to capture finals, but I'll not be doing that. They don't display Projected SP (Place). Nowhere have I seen a display of how much is matched at BSP, or even an indication, and I think it is misleading for BF to display: [cid:image001.png at 01D5B5A8.CBA1A800] which suggests, to me, that the volume matched for the BSP was $230,969/$11,472, when they were for the normal win and place bets, not BSP. Why are they not displaying BSP volume? Can't be too hard! From: Racing On Behalf Of sean mclaren Sent: Wednesday, 18 December 2019 7:30 AM To: AusRace Racing Discussion List Subject: Re: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB hello len a wealth of info, as usual; i see. i didn't see that coming i must admit. Peter, i concede; that being able to predict the fav at 9.00 am; is difficult. Can I preface that by, if you haven't tried. I have data, lots of it. So I went and attempted to do just that, some time back. The exercise was simply to improve my understanding of the wagering landscape. At the time, it wasn't an attempt to form any sort of wagering strategy. Can I predict the favourite? What factors contribute to the arrival of the fav? Part of my daily routine sees me modelling, from time to time; different sets of data. Sometimes it's a blessing, sometimes it can be a curse. Having loads of data, that is. Getting lost in the sea of data lol. The results were positive. I would encourage you Peter, and anyone else for that matter; to simply practice. Keep, what the MBA types call, a decision making journal. (michael mauboussin) A notepad, a spreadsheet ..... whatever. Draw up column headings with MAIN factors. Don't go wide. Simply use a Form Guide. A wealth of information at a glance. Yes, you can use the 100 Score/Rating that's published. In arriving at MAIN factors, to start with, simply use what you THINK. As you move forward, perhaps it ain't what it seems. I think it's Rob W, who coined the phrase " the lie of the eye". In this case, maybe "the lie of what you think". As the results flow, perhaps leave as is, if some other factor pops up, then add to the side. Even restart the cycle, with that added factor; if you want. Peter, if you followed this exercise; your ability to predict the favourite; surely has changed. Do I need to say, we are not looking at winning favs here, simply what is the FAV. The purpose of me putting pen to paper, apologies for the wordiness; is to simply challenge people's thinking. And hopefully lead to better wagering. Ponder this, sitting there at 8.45 am and seeing that your top selection is on the 3rd line. And, you predict your selection will be the SP Fav. Ignore that it's your selection even. Your selection is pre post Fav, and you predict another horse will be Fav. Gotta stop. You can predict the fav. You won't do it with 100% accuracy. The point is, your thinking has changed. And it follows that you will make better wagering decisions. . having software would surely On Tue, Dec 17, 2019 at 7:34 PM L.B.Loveday > wrote: Peter, you are still around! Quick and maybe a little dirty (any one old enough to remember QDOS?) I isolated 13735 favourites in TAB races this YTD for which I had TAB (NSW) dividend/price for the winner, outright Fav only (no equal), no late scratchings (after I collect fixed prices at around 9am Qld, NSW, Vic, Tas, SA, NT, after scratchings are in for WA ), no Dead Heats. 4806 won, the de rigueur 35% strike rate. Top morning fixed price for those 4806 was on average 21% greater than TAB. Top fixed morning odds for those 4806 was on average 43% greater than TAB. How you determine what will be favourite at 9am is in your hands. Betfair SP can be affected by your bet, especially with big bets (and don't forget their disclaimer "Price comparison removes Betfair commission charges" - that commission is as high as 10%), as can TAB dividend. LBL From: Racing On Behalf Of Peter Dean Sent: Tuesday, 17 December 2019 18:27 PM To: AusRace Racing Discussion List > Subject: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB Hi, Looking for advice on how to avg. about 12% better than what you would receive on the TAB for a favourite. Betfair SP advertises they achieve 14% or so in general, not sure how this applies specifically to favourites. Are there other better ways that people are happy to advise on. Thanks in advance, Peter _______________________________________________ Racing mailing list Racing at ausrace.com http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.png Type: image/png Size: 12926 bytes Desc: image001.png URL: From lloveday at ozemail.com.au Wed Dec 18 13:55:59 2019 From: lloveday at ozemail.com.au (L.B.Loveday) Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2019 13:55:59 +1100 Subject: [AusRace] One for Len In-Reply-To: <002c01d5abcb$63e1c970$2ba55c50$@bigpond.com> References: <001301d5ab4e$6c350330$449f0990$@tpg.com.au> <002c01d5abcb$63e1c970$2ba55c50$@bigpond.com> Message-ID: <003001d5b54e$ad8c7e80$08a57b80$@ozemail.com.au> Better to win from a thief than lose to an honest man. From: Racing On Behalf Of Ken Blake Sent: Friday, 6 December 2019 11:24 AM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' Subject: Re: [AusRace] One for Len Mike..I just don't understand why anyone would have accounts with these thieves, They are a cancer on the Australian wagering landscape, and most annoyingly act with impunity most of the time. I understand Len's Modus Operandi is early bet placement.but what's the point if you cannot get on or throttled back to threepenny wagers. I just don't get it. At the end of the day weigh up Betfair starting Price against Corporate opening prices..over the journey you're probably in front with Betfair and at least you know you are going to get on. Ken From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of mikemcbain at tpg.com.au Sent: Thursday, 5 December 2019 5:29 PM To: racing at ausrace.com Subject: [AusRace] One for Len https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-05/bet365-whistleblower-says-winners-giv en-delays/11768486 -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From peter_dean34 at hotmail.com Wed Dec 18 20:08:41 2019 From: peter_dean34 at hotmail.com (Peter Dean) Date: Wed, 18 Dec 2019 09:08:41 +0000 Subject: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB In-Reply-To: References: <000001d5b4bd$25a3ad40$70eb07c0$@ozemail.com.au>, Message-ID: Thanks for the thoughts and feedback Sean. I am not really trying to find the favourite but just looking for a few more percent of odds on selections, alternatively I need to reduce losers in the selection set. For me, using all the standard things of form attributes/ratings to eliminate selections does nothing but reduce the quantity of bets without really changing the POT. If I monitor the betting movements before betting I can successfully reduce the selection set but that means I need to spend more time than I am prepared to invest watching computer screens. Lifes short and that is not how I am prepared to use it. If the opportunity to find the extra percentage is too challenging perhaps people may be prepared to share what they have found to be the most influential criteria when reducing the number of losing selections in a set that the market does not focus on. For my selection sets I wont bet outside track rating 3,4,5 or 6 as history for me shows the market overbets the other track conditions. I dont mind betting in mdns where there is a zero winning % but then if outside a mdn I want to know selections have a greater than 10% strike rate as I have also found the 1-10% range of horses are overbet and typically occupied by non winners/triers. I am sure there are things out there that have not occurred to me and wondering if others are prepared to share their thoughts. Peter Get Outlook for Android ________________________________ From: Racing on behalf of sean mclaren Sent: Wednesday, December 18, 2019 7:29:55 AM To: AusRace Racing Discussion List Subject: Re: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB hello len a wealth of info, as usual; i see. i didn't see that coming i must admit. Peter, i concede; that being able to predict the fav at 9.00 am; is difficult. Can I preface that by, if you haven't tried. I have data, lots of it. So I went and attempted to do just that, some time back. The exercise was simply to improve my understanding of the wagering landscape. At the time, it wasn't an attempt to form any sort of wagering strategy. Can I predict the favourite? What factors contribute to the arrival of the fav? Part of my daily routine sees me modelling, from time to time; different sets of data. Sometimes it's a blessing, sometimes it can be a curse. Having loads of data, that is. Getting lost in the sea of data lol. The results were positive. I would encourage you Peter, and anyone else for that matter; to simply practice. Keep, what the MBA types call, a decision making journal. (michael mauboussin) A notepad, a spreadsheet ..... whatever. Draw up column headings with MAIN factors. Don't go wide. Simply use a Form Guide. A wealth of information at a glance. Yes, you can use the 100 Score/Rating that's published. In arriving at MAIN factors, to start with, simply use what you THINK. As you move forward, perhaps it ain't what it seems. I think it's Rob W, who coined the phrase " the lie of the eye". In this case, maybe "the lie of what you think". As the results flow, perhaps leave as is, if some other factor pops up, then add to the side. Even restart the cycle, with that added factor; if you want. Peter, if you followed this exercise; your ability to predict the favourite; surely has changed. Do I need to say, we are not looking at winning favs here, simply what is the FAV. The purpose of me putting pen to paper, apologies for the wordiness; is to simply challenge people's thinking. And hopefully lead to better wagering. Ponder this, sitting there at 8.45 am and seeing that your top selection is on the 3rd line. And, you predict your selection will be the SP Fav. Ignore that it's your selection even. Your selection is pre post Fav, and you predict another horse will be Fav. Gotta stop. You can predict the fav. You won't do it with 100% accuracy. The point is, your thinking has changed. And it follows that you will make better wagering decisions. . having software would surely On Tue, Dec 17, 2019 at 7:34 PM L.B.Loveday > wrote: Peter, you are still around! Quick and maybe a little dirty (any one old enough to remember QDOS?) I isolated 13735 favourites in TAB races this YTD for which I had TAB (NSW) dividend/price for the winner, outright Fav only (no equal), no late scratchings (after I collect fixed prices at around 9am Qld, NSW, Vic, Tas, SA, NT, after scratchings are in for WA ), no Dead Heats. 4806 won, the de rigueur 35% strike rate. Top morning fixed price for those 4806 was on average 21% greater than TAB. Top fixed morning odds for those 4806 was on average 43% greater than TAB. How you determine what will be favourite at 9am is in your hands. Betfair SP can be affected by your bet, especially with big bets (and don't forget their disclaimer "Price comparison removes Betfair commission charges" - that commission is as high as 10%), as can TAB dividend. LBL From: Racing On Behalf Of Peter Dean Sent: Tuesday, 17 December 2019 18:27 PM To: AusRace Racing Discussion List > Subject: [AusRace] How to Get Better Odds Than TAB Hi, Looking for advice on how to avg. about 12% better than what you would receive on the TAB for a favourite. Betfair SP advertises they achieve 14% or so in general, not sure how this applies specifically to favourites. Are there other better ways that people are happy to advise on. Thanks in advance, Peter _______________________________________________ Racing mailing list Racing at ausrace.com http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From lloveday at ozemail.com.au Mon Dec 30 15:53:13 2019 From: lloveday at ozemail.com.au (L.B.Loveday) Date: Mon, 30 Dec 2019 15:53:13 +1100 Subject: [AusRace] Horse of the decade Message-ID: <002501d5becd$100ae420$3020ac60$@ozemail.com.au> Frankel head and shoulders above the rest as the decade?s best Damian Lane wins the Cox Plate on Lys Gracieux at Moonee Valley in October. Picture: Getty Images * Tony Arrold Turf Writer * 8:00PM December 29, 2019 * 4 Comments In the global race for honours as horse of the decade, there was Frankel and then the rest. That would be the view of many, and particularly Britain?s regular racegoers, from any standpoint but it is also the finding of the official World?s Best Racehorse listings, which has Frankel as the benchmark topweight of the annual ratings since their inception in 2004. Frankel was handed a mark of 140 for 2012 and he heads an elite squad of 14 to have achieved a rating of 130 or better in the 10-year period 2010-19. Australia had a strong presence for this World?s Best Racehorse rating decade ? heavily weighted by a sequence of outstanding sprinters ? but the Australian super mares Black Caviar and Winx, both earning a peak rating of 132, were this nation?s glowing ornaments. The WBR ratings are compiled for the International Federation of Horseracing Authorities by a ?select panel of senior handicappers from major racing countries, but with the ratings expressed in the imperial system of pounds favoured by Britain and North America. Ratings are based on an individual?s best performance of a calendar year, not a package for a year, nor the career total of an ?individual. Progressively updated with ?interim listings released throughout the course of the year, the final and official rankings are ?announced by the IFHA around the third week of January. As a first-time visitor to ?England?s famed Royal Ascot meeting in 2012, I was among the privileged to witness first-hand the performance that gave Frankel, a four-year-old by Galileo, his 140 rating (or 63.5kg by the metric measure). About 11 months earlier, I had viewed the live telecast from the other side of the globe of the ?English 2000 Guineas and signed off content that Frankel?s cavalier display was visually the second-most breathtaking racetrack performance I had seen (in my opinion nothing compares with Secretariat?s 1973 Belmont Stakes win in America). The Group I Queen Anne Stakes, Royal Ascot?s mile championship, opened the 2012 meeting with Frankel facing his 11th ?unbeaten start. He destroyed his rivals, posting a winning margin of 11 lengths in record time. Frankel is not only the WBR ratings? benchmark, he also has the second-highest figure for the decade, having topped the ratings in 2011 with a 136 mark for that awesome English 2000 Guineas performance. But for Frankel, Australia?s Black Caviar would have topped the 2011 ratings on 132. None?theless, this remarkable daughter of Bel Esprit was the world?s top-rated pure sprinter, in a distance range of 1000m to 1300m, for four consecutive years, 2010-13 ?inclusive. Introduced to the WBR ranking in 2010 on 123, Black Caviar slipped back from 132 in 2011 to 130 in 2012, the year she made her one start away from Australia. And that was to bookend Royal Ascot?s first day blockbuster by Frankel with her closing day victory, the 22nd of her unblemished 25-start career, in the Group I Diamond Jubilee Stakes. Australian-bred and/or trained sprinters to snare a 122-plus rating in the decade were Hay List and Rocket Man (125), Santa Ana Lane (currently 124), Chautauqua, Sepoy, Lankan Rupee and Terra?vista (123), More Joyous, ?Atlantic Jewel, Pierro and Trapeze Artist (122) and Nature Strip (currently 122). Tom Queally and Frankel win The 2000 Guineas Stakes at Newmarket in 2011. Picture: Getty Images >From a career perspective in this decade, public voting for a horse of the world award may well have Winx pipping the undefeated Frankel and Black Caviar in a three-way finish. Like Frankel, Winx did not compete outside her native country but the daughter of Street Cry enriched Australian racing for five glorious seasons, two to six years. The Chris Waller-trained mare won 37 of her 43 starts ? ?unbeaten for the last 33 while harvesting 25 Group Is and retiring with an all-time world record earnings of $26,451,175. Like Black Caviar, Winx first entered the 120-plus division of the WBR on a 123 rating for 2015 ? sharing eighth spot with 13 others. She moved into third place on 132 in 2016 as the best turf runner of any sex behind the US dirt ?horses Arrogate (134) and California Chrome (133). Winx earned the same exceptional mark of 132 in 2017 but was overshadowed by Arrogate (134). And in 2018 she won all her seven outings ? Group Is and including the renamed Winx Stakes ? but she had to share top honours with British-trained Cracksman (son of Frankel). Arrogate arrived comet-like to American racing in the second half of 2016, his barnstorming form harvesting record earnings of $US17.42m ($24.96m) in an extraordinary five-month period. His stunning win sequence ?included the Group I Breeders? Classic and the inaugural The Pegasus (briefly the world?s richest race) before a dynamic last-to-first Dubai World Cup victory. As dramatically as he had ?arrived, Arrogate departed, ingloriously, in much the same time frame in the second half of 2017 but the 134 mark from his Dubai success in March kept him on top. Arrogate?s two-year reign followed the exploits of another US dirt runner, American Pharoah, who attracted a 134 topweight for 2015 to become the second three-year-old of the decade to do so ? Frankel was the other on 136 back in 2011. American Pharoah was rated on 128 after becoming the first US triple crown winner in 37 years. But he was raised to 134 after thrashing his elders later that year in his racing finale, the Breeders? Cup Classic. The highest-rated older middle-distance runner of the decade was the British-trained Harbinger (by Dansili) who gained the decade?s next highest rating behind Frankel with a 135 mark in 2010, a rating achieved in his spectacular 11-length win in course record time in the Group I King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. A post-race injury at what was only his fourth unbeaten start of the year prevented Harbinger ?improving his rating further as he did not race again, finding a new career at stud in Japan. Japan holds the key to whether the final ratings for 2019 will have a topweight at 130 or better ? a common factor of the first nine years of the decade. As of the latest interim release on November 10, the British pair Crystal Ocean and Enable shared topweight on 128 with French stayer Walgeist ? with Winx rather shoddily treated equal seventh on 125, Santa Ana Lane on 124 and veteran miler Happy Clapper on 123. But Japanese-bred mare Lys Gracieux, raised from 119 to 121 for her Cox Plate demolition in late October, is due for a significant reassessment as she returned home from her Melbourne triumph to line up in the Group I Arima Kinen nine days ago. In a race that attracted national wagering turnover of ?46.889bn ($779.8m), Lys Gracieux turned in a career-best performance. She toyed with her 15 rivals, ?including nine Group I winners, winning by five lengths in a time just one second off the track ?record. In 2011, Japan?s triple crown winner Orfevre closed his classic season by beating older horses in the Arima Kinen. He was given a year-end rating of 123, clearly a mark that should have had the WBR handicapping panel shipped off to the nearest branch of Specsavers. Orfevre brought off an Arima Kinen double in 2013, this time his eight-length margin advancing his rating from 125 to 129. As a comparison, for her similar dominant success in the Arima Kinen, Lys Gracieux will require a rare 9lb (4kg) rise to reach 130, but a 7lb (3kg) boost to 128 for a four-way tie at the top is feasible. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image001.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 54731 bytes Desc: not available URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image002.png Type: image/png Size: 82 bytes Desc: not available URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image003.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 42550 bytes Desc: not available URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image004.jpg Type: image/jpeg Size: 69556 bytes Desc: not available URL: From tonymoffat at bigpond.com Tue Dec 31 12:14:04 2019 From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat) Date: Tue, 31 Dec 2019 09:14:04 +0800 Subject: [AusRace] Maxi Methods Message-ID: <004101d5bf77$9893e3a0$c9bbaae0$@bigpond.com> Max (Maxi) may have been a journalist although s/he is not correctly introduced in any of the 4 booklets printed and sold. The author had an interest in the to-ings and fro-ings of jockeys as there is an item concerning them in each of the booklets. One theory is that of a family association between jockey, trainer, owner and of course, the horse. There is a case made about a runner bearing the family name (I won't give it), trained and owned by the same family, ridden by another of them and it won four (of 34) at good odds. You can see the reasoning there, although there is no mention of the reasons for the non-winnings on 30 other occasions - it was second 5 times, when favourite. Family connections in racing do occur, I agree, and working back from the jockey related to the trainer related to the owners must mean a time of waiting, surely. Maxi insists that the familial line is to be obeyed, although often you see owners plus trainers related. I have no data on the viability of following runners with connections. A trainer in NSW, whose child rides exclusively, has a 3% win strike rate. Perhaps that is the horse not winning as it should. Whatever, Maxi espoused the method of deciding the best jockeys, from their win/place records, the best horse, from their pre-race price Then: (a) find the best combinations, rated jockeys riding short priced horses (b) find the best combinations of rated jockeys riding horses long in the pre-race market (c) find the worst rated jockeys riding short priced horses (d) find the best jockey, the best trainer (from their win/place records), the best horse from the pre-race prices. Sort the selections and bracket the commonalities from (a) to (d) - choose your bets from these. There are no detailed results although there is mention of 81 winners from 113 races in Sydney in 1969 - 81% off multiple system runners*. An example: Dubbo R7 30/12/2019 Summary:- Method A 5,7 Method B 3,7 Method C 2,6 Method D 5,3 Race result 5,2,3 Coffs R7 30/12/2019 Method A 7,3 Method B 5,3 Method C 6,nil Method D 3,7 Race result 7,6,3 In the results I used AAP pre-race win prices. In reviewing numerous races it became necessary to be humanly subjective when choosing runners, there was often ties. Another way, perhaps. * 81% against 86% often quoted for backing the first 4 n the market. Cheers Tony Happy New Year everyone