[AusRace] FW: Use a race to catch a winner - a system

[Tony Moffat]

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-----Original Message-----
From: Tony Moffat [mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com] 
Sent: Monday, March 12, 2018 7:52 PM
Subject: Use a race to catch a winner - a system

The Newmarket Handicap, Flemington Saturday, is the subject of several
systems that I know of, it has been around a while.


(1) If the runner featured in the Lightning Stakes at Flemington and
is entered to run in the Newmarket, and its conditions and
circumstances remain, then it is a selection.
 This from the 20's in a book. The circumstances and conditions
requirement are the same rider, weight, weather. 

The Lightning is 1000 metres and the Newmarket is 1200 metres, that is
allowed. Yesterday winner came into the race through the Lightning
Handicap and the circumstances and conditions were the same. Weight
difference is 1kg. The Lightning is wfa, the Newmarket is conditional
handicap. 

The conditions and circumstances rules hamper selections, they are too
exclusive but that nebulous reasoning was common back then (and now),
I wrote it therefore it is although no reasoning or support is
provided. I imposed a 1 kg rule to the selections, to counter the wfa
handicapping.

Supido, Rock Magic Missrock also came through the Lightning, all had
weight changes, reflecting their class, and the latter two had rider
changes also.

RedKirk Warrior remained after the cull, and it won.

Last year, RedKirk Warrior did not qualify through the Lightning Hcp
and it won.

Those that did qualify were TerraVista, Speith, Illustrious Lad, Star
Turn, Counter Attack.
Deleted because of the rider clause - Counter Attack, Star Turn.
Deleted because of the weight clause - Spieth, Illustrious Lad, Star
Turn, Counter Attack

Terravista qualified as the system runner and was unplaced.

Using my own rubbery selection equation I could qualify  Spieth4,
Sheidel2, Voodoo Lad1 first up, Star Turn3, Supercash3,Redkirk
Warrior10 and first up. I narrowed them down to Star Turn, 3rd and
Sheidel and Supercash and a race to stay away from -but that is me.


>From an earlier post - the use of a race to catch a winner, in 7 of
the 8 mentioned. 

The XX Longshot Plan - you work on 7 races throughout the year.
(a)	Grand National Steeplechase -the selection is the runner which
finished 4th or 5th or 6th in the Kensington Steeplechase a week
earlier. If the runner who came 4th is entered, it is the selection.
Disregard other entries. If there are no runners from the Q race there
is no bet on the GN
(b)	Footscray Steeplechase - if there is a runner in this that
came 4th or 5th or 6th in the Kensington Steeplechase then it becomes
the selection. Disregard other entries.
(c)	Australian Steeplechase - the selection is the horse which won
the Godfrey Watson Steeplechase or the horse which ran second in that
race.
(d)	Spring Stakes - the selection is the topweight.
(e)	Caulfield Guineas - same selection as the Spring Stakes but
only if it won the Spring Stakes.
(f)	Melbourne Cup - the selection is the runner who finished 2nd
in the Caulfield Cup
(g)	Sandown Guineas - the selection is the filly who did best of
the 4th,5th,6th in The Oaks.

And some results
Summary:
(a)	GN Steeple, 14 bets, 5 winners, 11-4,16-1,11-8,25-1,7-1
(b)	Footscray S, 9 bets, 4 winners, 5-2,7-2,12-1,9-2
(c)	Aust Stple, 14 bets,8 winners, 3-1,4-1,9-4,4-6,6-1,7-1,5-2,4-1
(d)	Spring Stks 10 bets, 6 winners,6-4,3-1,8-1,2-1,1-1,6-4
(e)	Caulfield Gns 4 bets, 2 winners, 10-1,20-1
(f)	Melbourne C, 13 bets,4 winners 14-1,15-1,20-1,25-1
(g)	Sandown Gns, 8 bets, 4 winners, 10-1,6-1,5-2,14-1

Back to the Newmarket system - a runner in the Lightning Hcp qualifies
as a selection if conditions and circumstances are similar - weather,
jockey, weight.

In 1982, for instance, Razor Sharp won the race 10/1,10.8, having run
in the Lightning Hcp. He's a Haze was another and Papal Bull, both
unplaced in this running

In 1981, Elounda Bay won the Newmarket after running in the Lightning
Stakes, in race record time 10/1 11.4. Aare and Watney were other
runners

In 1980, Scomeld and Bit of a Skite ran in the Lighting Stakes but
were unplaced  in the Newmarket, won by Dor Kon, who was at 33/1, and
was 25/1 at his previous start, which he won also (Hawkesburn Hcp) and
he had been very short in two earlier runs interstate. There is a plan
to trap Hawksburn Hcp runners when entered in the Newmarket. 

In 1970, Black Onyx won 8/1 G Moore after winning the Lightning
Stakes. 3/1. Etc.

There is a plan that requires selections running in the Oakleigh Plate
and backing up in the Newmarket to be selected also.

There is a plan applied to The Straight Six, another once a year
event, but that has 3 or 4 lead up races to consider and scores highly
for placegetters - something that happens when 5 or so selections are
running for you.

You can't back them all. Actually, you can, there is a TAB button for
that, but I am saying you can't profit doing that. There may be a plan
in existence that will select all runners, because of some
happenstance in a previous moment, different for all but which
conforms with a selection rule, somehow.

Cheers

Tony






 


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