[AusRace] Jockey Rating Thoughts

Robert Aldridge ral16763 at bigpond.net.au
Mon Sep 18 06:30:08 AEST 2017


Hi Nick,

That is interesting about Hugh Bowman, I might have to check out what his
rides are like when laying him on the Betfair exchange.

Because if his odds are reasonably low that would play into the mantra of
lay as short as you can with the opposite for backing.

This would mean 81% lay collect rate. Yes something to test with a Betfair
bot which may not come to anything but possibly worth

a test anyway

Thanks for the info.

Cheers, Robert A 

 

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Nick at Twonix
Sent: Monday, 18 September 2017 12:27 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Jockey Rating Thoughts

 

Hi Peter,

I have been playing around with displaying race results in Power BI and have
now developed a very powerful way to check on a jockey's performance over
the last month last 3 months, last 6 months, last 12 months or longer. My
race results data now goes back to September 2012 and covers over 1 ,0000,
000 horse runs.  In general the better the jockey the better the strike rate
but sadly the worse the punting return. For example Hugh  Bowman has had a
19% strike rate over last 12 months (the average jockey strike rate is 10%)
but you would lose about 11% on turnover if you backed every runner on TAB
VIC in proportion to its odds. Compare that to Emily Finnegan in SA who has
a 16% strike rate over last 12 months (some 440 rides)  and  you would have
WON 14% on turnover if you backed every runner on TAB VIC ! 

 

My Power BI race results site is available for FREE until the end of this
year (compliments to Microsoft who is providing the service FREE for the
time being) and I have just upgraded it to allow you to view the results  of
all runners in a race and then drill down  by either horse (see all its runs
since 2012) or jockey (summary of all rides since 2012) in a single mouse
click. The jockey stats include analysis by month, by Grade, by Track
Condition and by Distance. No surprise that Damien Oliver is the best and
most profitable Aus jockey in staying races over the last 6 years. His ride
on Almandin on Saturday was fantastic.

 

If you have already registered then click on the link :

View ANCR Race Results in Power BI

 

If you haven't registered (its FREE) then go to
http://www.puntforprofit.com.au/e-p-i-extreme-punter-intelligence/ and
follow the prompts.

 

All race results up to Saturday 16/9/2017 are included. And I update the
results weekly.

 

Cheers,

AN

 

 

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Peter Dean
Sent: Friday, 15 September 2017 9:19 PM
To: racing at ausrace.com
Subject: [AusRace] Jockey Rating Thoughts

 

Hi,

I am using a set of jockey ratings that have been calculated over a 12 mnth
history.

Naturally there are potentially some inaccuracies with jockeys currently out
of form or others recently improved and not commanding a high rating.

My question is has anyone ever done any analysis to determine the optimum
period over which to calculate the rating and how often to update it ?

Thanks in advance.

Peter

 

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