[AusRace] Jockey Rating Thoughts and Jockeys - exceed and excel

[Tony Moffat]

Re-send - it went elsewhere I'm told, first time around.

-----Original Message-----
From: Tony Moffat [mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com] 
Sent: Sunday, September 17, 2017 3:42 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Jockey Rating Thoughts and [AusRace] Jockeys - exceed and excel

There is a jockey data database at : http://www.rbratings.com.au/ratings/jockey-ratings/

John Hunter (from RB Ratings) was contacted by me and has permitted the inclusion of the link above - thanks John.

RB Ratings can be viewed at : http://www.rbratings.com.au/

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And following is some more data on jockeys - Some of us may think the jockey role is to complete the picture within the rules of racing.
 Eg,provide the correct handicap weight, display the coloured silks.

-----Original Message-----
From: Tony Moffat [mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com]
Sent: Sunday, June 5, 2016 11:38 AM
To: 'L.B.Loveday' <lloveday at ozemail.com.au>; 'AusRace Mailing List' <ausrace at ausrace.com>
Subject: RE: [AusRace] Jockeys - exceed and excel

Plante had the rule of categorising jockeys by their finish positions 

Biggs earlier had the place sr% divided by the sr% of all jockeys (a la .31/.2595 to give an iv/rf of 1.19 which was eloquent) - I sought and obtained permission from Mr Biggs to use this information Thank you Roger -iv=impact value, rf = relative frequency

 A friend uses prices of past rides and the race result – utilising the CRIS db and bets on jockeys only (yes, disregarding the horse input)

Presumably, I have permitted jockeys to underwhelm me – personally, I thought Luke Nolan rides on Black Cav were uninspired.
But he is a genius by association, perhaps they all are elevated into nebulous god-like relevance because of the endeavours of the horse.

Perhaps investigating interwoven form lines is maths enough and who needs to involve the human element when choosing to bet or not.
Jockeys get paid, no matter what, and get more sheckles based on results. Pay them only for places and see if that improves their score line

Cheers

Tony

-----Original Message-----
 On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Jockeys - exceed and excel

 

	Quote: Len - that correlation would not be obvious until after the next race, would it? 

	It's obvious, on average, from the past records - there have been literally millions of past consecutive rides and the only way I have to estimate the future in this case is by analyzing the past - I can't know MichelPayne is going to go on a Bali binge, boozing with the boys, and severely restrict riding track work, but I can know that when, on average, a rider is riding unplaced favourites, she/he/it is a good lay next start. Ask Con K. 

	 

----- Original Message -----
From: "Tony Moffat" 
To:"L.B.Loveday" , "AusRace Mailing List" 
Cc:
Sent:Sun, 5 Jun 2016 09:54:14 +0800
Subject:RE: [AusRace] Jockeys - exceed and excel

 Len - that correlation would not be obvious until after the next race, would it? I can go with the bottled enthusiasm but.

 Do jockeys get the yips, he asks. Young Shelley won a couple recently Have her previous unplaced rides won again/improved?
 22/05 -Casterton Barely a Scent Linda Meech unplaced
 28/05 -Doomben La Passe Brad Rawiller unplaced
 04/06 - Sandown Jalan Jalan D Oliver unplaced

 Exposed jockey capability is covered in that not so in depth expose

 Is it a ride that suits the horse capability although the rider would not be aware of its attributes. Most often seen when they back up into a place  You can discount collusion between riders because it's criminal.
 The handicappers have done their best to even things out however there are a number of BM horses winning again after months of contesting stronger  races - punching above their weight limit so to speak. How come?
Perhaps, ridden similarly to a previous winning ride - as related by the talking head on tv.
 And back to grade it has to be said. Or a better barrier.

 My stance is that the jockey input is over rated

 Cheers

 Tony

 On Behalf Of L.B.Loveday
 Subject: Re: [AusRace] Jockeys - exceed and excel

 There is a clear statistically significant correlation between a jockey's consecutive finish positions, just as there is between a basketball player's consecutive shots for goal.

 And it makes sense - from football days, a player who has just taken a specy and kicked a 60 yard goal walks tall while someone who has dropped a sitter in the backlines that allowed his opponent to snap a goal slumps his shoulders. And a player who walks tall is, on average, more likely to do well than one with his shoulders slumped.
 So why wouldn't a jockey, on average, who has just won do better next start than one who has just ridden an unplaced favourite?

 No sophisticated algorithm, and certain not a neural, needed Tony.
 Con K's odds reflected that without either.

 LBL

 Subject:[AusRace] Jockeys - exceed and excel

 Some of us may think the jockey role is to complete the picture within the rules of racing.
 Eg,provide the correct handicap weight, display the coloured silks.

 However, several riders helped themselves to multiple winners today.

 Mathew Neilson rode 4 in Morphettville.

 Koby Jennings rode 4 at Rosehill.Deanne Panya rode a double there also.

 Dwayne Dunn rode a double at Sandown.

 Sigrid Carr, Brendon McCoull, Daniel Ganderton rode a double at Devonport.

 Nozi Tomizawa rode a treble at Toowoomba.Josh Oliver, Brendon Newport rode a double there also.

 Shelby Colgate rode a double at Roebourne.

 Just saying. An algorithm or neural table to determine when their superlatives are due is needed.
 Or is it just the horse?

 Cheers

 Tony

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