[AusRace] Calculating deductions from payouts in cases of

[chiron1 at iinet.net.au]

	The impression I got from conversations and calls I made following my
"deduction" experience, led me to believe that a comment the 

	betting steward made to me on the day, implied IWS Re_Frame software
was in common use in on-course bookmaking around the country ...

	not in all variants of fixed odds betting ...just on-course
bookmaking. 

	Whether or not I formed the wrong impression can be cleared up
eventually. By "universally adopted" I was referring to on-course
bookmaking only. 

	I have seen with my own eyes that there is no 'universal' deduction
methodology across ALL fixed-odds betting offerers in Oz.  

	 

	Incidentally, in the hypothetical example you framed (below), with
the black box theoretical deduction at just 2% ...I sense your pain,
but let's face it

	most punters who have been previously skinned by a bookie see
betting with you as blood sport and wouldn't be very sympathetic! In
fact they'd 

	probably gift you the razors, supply the brandy and pay for your
hot bath! LOL. Cheers,TonyA 

----- Original Message -----
From: "Rob Waterhouse" 
To:, "AusRace Racing Discussion List" 
Cc:
Sent:Thu, 19 Oct 2017 17:11:34 +1100
Subject:RE: [AusRace] Calculating deductions from payouts in cases of

	What you do mean by universally adopted in OZ? My calculation is that
it covers but 1% of fixed odds betting.

	 

	As regards fairness: Any “bunch ’em up” bookie last Saturday
(one making a balanced book, laying every runner) would be suicidal at
this deduction. He could have held, say, $10,600 on the race, have had
everything taking out about $10,000. With the scratching, he would
have had to refund $2000 on the scratching and retrieve but $200.50
from the punter if he had bet, say, $10,000 to $25 the winner. The
late “Digger” Lobb would have called for a hot bath, a bottle of
brandy and razor blades.

	 

	 

	FROM: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] ON BEHALF OF
chiron1 at iinet.net.au
SENT: Thursday, 19 October 2017 4:54 PM
TO: racing at ausrace.com
SUBJECT: Re: [AusRace] Calculating deductions from payouts in cases of

	 

	Hi Rob and Ausracers,

	I know deductions only affect us as punters from time to time but
everybody should have a look 

	at the new policy - the IWS_Re Frame, which, on further
investigation, seems to be universally 

	adopted in Oz. I'm slowly beginning to get the point you're making
Rob. I went 

	through the Dominic Beirne slideshow/Q&A that 2 ausracers sent or
pointed me to and

	I could probably accept it, if I could get my head around, not so
much the "fairness" of it. 

	I saw the examples but Beirne says it consists of hundreds of look up
tables (written into an 

	algorithm obviously) covering numerous 'anomalous' situations 

	 

	but if a bookie has to return all the money held on a
scratched medium shot at say 11/1 ($12.00) but the fave, 

	on which he stood to lose the most, if it won, goes unplaced,
then it works against the punter even at 

	low aggregate betting percentages.

	My bet was deducted 14c/$1 via the on course bookie I laid it
with but only 8c/$1 via the TAB fixed odds system.

	(The winner paid $7.50; the fave was unplaced) They can't both be
answering the same question. 

	Perth aggregate betting percentages often get close to or above 140%
win. The TAB fixed odds, permanently.

	 

	With the example you quote isn't the IWS algorithm deducting 50% once
the winners price 

	is over 50/1 ... Beirne alluded to it or something like that, in the
Q&A presentation... I feel a semantic 

	discussion on the meaning of "fairness' coming on.. :-)

	cheers Tony

Message: 1
Date: Tue, 17 Oct 2017 12:42:37 +1100
From: "Rob Waterhouse" 
To: "'AusRace Racing Discussion List'" 
Cc: "'warren woodcock'" 
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Calculating deductions from payouts in cases of
horses scratched at the barrier
Message-ID: 
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"

Further to the deduction discussion: Last Saturday in the last at
Randwick, the 4/1 chance was scratched. The winner was 100/1. 

The ?black box?, predictably, declared a parsimonious 2 cent
deduction. I understand the intellectual argument but a working bookie
could have $10,600 on the race, have everything taking out $10,000,
have to refund $2000 on the scratching and retrieve but $200.50 from
the punter he bet $10,000 to $25.

Had the winner been odds-on, it may well have been more than a 20-cent
deduction. 

The black box cleverly answers the wrong question. 

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com [5]] On Behalf Of Rob
Waterhouse
Sent: Thursday, 12 October 2017 10:55 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' 
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Calculating deductions from payouts in cases of
horses scratched at the barrier

The new way of calculating is a source of contention and hated by
on-course bookies and ignored by the betting firms and TABs,
notwithstanding it is intellectually sound..

This ?new way? is a black box (meaning it?s algorithm is secret)
answers, cleverly, the question: what would a new market look like
after a scratching?

It has faults. Firstly, people don?t understand it. Secondly, an
eccentric bookmaker who only lays long-priced runners is very
short-changed. Thirdly, it answers the wrong question, which should be
how should the bookmaker be compensated for the loss of field money on
the scratching. Fourthly, through no fault of the ?new way? the
deductions are based on the large-percentage corporate betting market
rather than the razor sharp, low-margin on-course market. Fifthly,
when a horse is being considered to be scratched, it blows with the
corporates, and the deduction isn?t based on the price it was
averagely traded.

Rob W

	 

Links:
------
[1] mailto:robbie at robwaterhouse.com
[2] mailto:racing at ausrace.com
[3] mailto:warrenwwoodcock at gmail.com
[4] mailto:00c601d346e9%2436482b60%24a2d88220%24 at robwaterhouse.com
[5] mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com
[6] mailto:racing at ausrace.com

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