[AusRace] Double and Save - a system

Mon Nov 6 22:45:11 AEDT 2017

Mechanical betting systems seek to use race results as if they are
causes.

Systems operate generally on the premise that yesterday results will
cause todays results in terms of yesterday conditions.

There are limits to how systems can work.

Some cleverly researched and designed systems do succeed, but most
fail. 

Systems must fail because they are pale and inferior examples of
rating methods, which generally fail also.

A review and summary of rating methods shows that the runners are
scored most often on their best efforts, when the best

of their worst effort is typical. 

However, there are amusing and instructive anecdotes in the racing
literature on the claims and methods of systems. 

The language utilised is that of positivity of purpose with your
method.

If it succeeds it is expected.

If it does not succeed there is a reason in the rules.

Double and Save is a system using a saver bet on the favourite - and
the bonus often that occurs with a  bet on specific runners to place.

There is a requirement that favourites should be $3.50 or better
before the start.

The other runners you choose are those with win dividends of $33 or
less. The selection comes from horses showing $33 or less, and these
are backed

to place.

Perhaps cap your runners at 5 per race, the favourite and 4 running to
place. Often the dividends allow you to include more runners but the

results shown here use one favourite and four places to total five, as
suggested. Occasionally the favourite is a joint favourite and if it
can't be separated, using the least place dividend

as the arbiter then wait for another race, or back both as favourite
and reduce your place inclusions. 

The method was used first as a way of finding runners to fill a
quinella. Quinella betting this using the system can be rewarding

I used win and place in the results here - you must be looking at a
dividend display to formulate your bets. This is a turnoff

for some, and I don't use it.

METHOD ONE:

(a)Back the favourite to win if your return after outlay leaves you a
sizeable amount to place on runners to place and pay.

The perfect result would be the favourite to win, and repay you 100%
of the total outlay, then two others to place, to return you 200% at
least

of the outlay. This has occurred, and occurs frequently enough to keep
you interested.

(b) Find the runners, in dividend order, paying $33 or less, and back
4 of those to return you total outlay and a further, smaller,  amount.

Your bet on this race will have the favourite and four longer priced
horses running for you.

I use $100 in the results, this is the upper level for me each race at
present. I use the best of three totes product.

If the favourite is less than $3.50 consider another race, somewhere
else.

SUMMARY:

(A)   BACK THE FAVOURITE TO WIN $100 IF ITS PRICE IS $3.50 OR BETTER.

(B)    STARTING AT WIN DIVIDEND $33 AND LESS, BACK THE 4 LONGEST
PRICED PLACEGETTERS THAT WILL RETURN YOUR OUTLAY IF THEY PLACE

EXAMPLES FROM 3/11/2017

FLEMINGTON RACE 1:

LEVENDI favourite at $4.00 WON 

PLACE BETS decided from 12,10,16,9 - 16 placed - $5.60 

FLEMINGTON RACE 2: 7LAVALAVA was trending to favouritism, with a win
differential of 20c, the place dividend was the same as 1Bring Me
Roses

The win dividends were $1 apart at correct weight - you would find
another race wouldn't you, or install another rule to cover this -back
both to win

WIN BETS:So LavaLava was $4.90 and Bring Me Roses was $3.90 - $26 to
win on each $52 out 

PLACE BETS: decided from 2.3.4 - 3 placed-$6.10

FLEMINGTON R3: Stay out of this.

There are three on almost equal win dividends, and all three on 2.1
place div, so who is it going to be. What would you select, one of
those did win.

For the place component there are three to choose from as the place
runners, including two placed runners.

All too much to consider in the heat of betting battles.

RESULT: we might have got the winner, and we got two placegetters.
Bend the rules to get a bet - no.

FLEMINGTON R4: HARLEM -$4 unplaced

PLACE BETS: 1,3,5,7 -  CISMONTANE PLACED $3.2

FLEMINGTON R5:INVINCIBLE STAR  - $$6.4-unplaced

PLACE BETS: 6,8,10,18 - two of those placed -$5.3*$6.4

FLEMINGTON R6:  SHOALS (f) WON - $4.7

PLACE BETS; 1,4,6,9 unplaced.

FLEMINGTON R7:  ACE HIGH (F) WON $6.80

Place bets: 4.5.11.12 - nil return

FLEMINGTON R8: 8 favourites here TOM MELBOURNE,TOSEN STARDOM -back
both at $5

PLACE BET: 4,7,13 -UNPLACED. 

A loss for the system horses.

FLEMINGTON R9: favourite RICH CHARM won - $5.20

PLACE BETS: 5,7,12,14 - #7 placed - $3.50

RETURNS 55.70

OUT 40.00

PROFIT 15.70 (60.75%)

METHOD TWO: 

The favourite is selected as the win bet

The place bets are the four longest priced place dividends.

METHOD 3 (deleted) -crazy, illogical, but keeps you in the money more
often than you think possible

METHOD 4: another time.          

Cheers

Tony (I don't use a system)

I backed Hartnell last night

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