[AusRace] RYANS WAY - a system

[Tony Moffat]

Ryan, in an article in the Sporting Globe, explained this method in
response to a request from the paper who were asking for selection
ideas -"systems"

 Later, Ryan wrote in and corrected what had been written first up, it
was emphasised that the selections came from handicaps, and that the
pre-race betting forecast be used in that runners had to exceed or
equal their pre-race betting forecast price -those prices you see in
the papers on race day or the day before . Further, the requirement
that only the first three TAB numbers be utilised was amended,
scratchings were permitted and the top three surviving numbers could
be used.

The results shown below use the first edition of the rules -strictly
the top three only, No scratching substitutes.

 However, Ryans Way did select a big slice of long priced horses when
most Systems submitted demanded you concentrate in amongst the short
priced runners.

There was no requirement to support or corroborate your method. You
did not have to give examples. Ryan did, 46 of them.

 In the manner of system authors and sellers most entries wrote up
their system as the best ever, bookie bashing
method and the beginning of the trail to untold and unspeakable riches
- perhaps that started with you buying the system.

 If it's good are you going to sell and really the winning methods
were not disclosed in the paper, nor anywhere else ever I would
suggest. Who would do that.

RYANS WAY
Ryan wrote that it had been observed, then recorded and examined in
the results of many races, handicaps of all ages and distances, where
the first three in the weights were on their own weight line, the top
weight, the second weight, the third weight. In a season in Melbourne
in 5 and 5 and half furlong open handicap races the author revealed
that these three horses, the three top weights, won 42% of races they
contested.

In  7 furlong open handicaps this  rose to 50%. In 8 furlong open
handicap races this group won 56%.

In 2yo handicaps races these runners scored in 61% of 5 furlong races
and won more than 53% of all 2yo handicap races of all distances.
There were 76 eligible races of this type, 2yo handicaps, all
distances, with form runners. 

The author of the system assured us that a profit could be made by
concentrating on these selections alone.

 Find the first three, decide your bets, bet and collect, and wait for
the next money making race.

 They had to be handicaps, where the handicapper decided their
inclusion in the field, and they had to have weights that were the top
three in the field, not equals, not promoted because of a scratching. 

There were 3 refinements you could use.

 It was suggested win only betting on the three runners.

 Or it was suggested win only betting on any of the three runners
whose available price was more than 7/1.

 Or, it was  suggested each way betting on runners paying better than
8/1 -he may have meant 8/1 or more because some of his samples include
these 8/1 runners and his calculations included a dividend of $3, the
place portion of an each way bet at 8/1 - all of that because the
author didn't' say it.

These examples came from Caulfield 02/08/1969 - a slow track with 8
races 

(a) Loss, 16/1 each way -2
(b) Loss, 25/1 each way-2
(c) WIN, 25/1 each way + 31.25
(d) WIN 9/1 each way + 11.25
( e ) Loss 12/1 each way - 2
(f) WIN 8/1 each way + 10.00
(g) WIN 8/1 each way +10.00
(h) Loss 15/1 each way - 2
The 25/1 winner started at 20/1 but did touch 25/1 at times
The other prices appear to be correct. 
The system made 54.5 this day- 1 unit win,1 unit place.

Summary:- RYANS WAY

Operate only on handicaps for horses with form. No first starters

Choose the first three in the weights, the top weight, the second top
weight, the third top weight

Selections must be the only horses running with those weights.

No bet if any of the three are scratched. 
No other runner can be substituted for a scratched runner.

Back each runner if its price exceeds 7/1

Or

Back each runner each way if its price exceeds 8/1

Other results continued
3rd 10/1 +1.50
LOSS - 2
WIN 8/1 + 10.00
2ND 8/1 + 1.00
WIN 20/1 + 25.00
WIN 8/1 +10.00
Etc.
The Melbourne Cup winner was selected using this system
WIN 16/1 Rain Lover +20.00
runner up Ben Lomond was also a selection each way 9/1

THE WINNER IS

The winner was the Jumping Favourites Plan.

The winning method concentrated on hurdles and steeples during winter.
The selection was the favourite when top weight. It claimed 87%
winning strike rate.
There were 7 picks over 3 three years.
I found more nominees than that, unless I mis read the selection
criteria - Tab 1 + favourite + winter(April,May,June,July), no other
restrictions known

WIN 4-6
WIN 13-4
2nd 6-4
3rd 9-4
2nd 5-2
2nd 6-4
WIN 2-1
FELL
FELL
FELL
WIN 6-4
WIN 4-1
WIN 7-4
WIN 2-1
For the year there were 63 jumps races and the top weight, after
scratchings, won 27% of those - maybe I am looking at this wrong.

Cheers

Tony










---
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
http://www.avg.com