[AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
Race Stats
RaceStats at hotmail.com
Mon May 22 01:29:51 AEST 2017
Hi Robert,
I guess what I'm getting at, is that horses range from 15.2 hands (roughly) to over 17 hands.
The average horse length nose to tail is 2.40 metres, not 2.75 metres, but within that there are many variations.
By using averages, one isn't going to get the correct output for 2yo and 3yo races.
When you geld a horse from an entire to a gelding, they go through a growth spurt, which is why it is so popular unless a horse has shown spectacular ability as a 2 or 3yo.
My grandfather (I think I mentioned this before), was a horse trainer in Ireland.
He was also a punter and made his fortune when he picked the entire card at a race meeting just by looking at the horses in the yard.
The horse had to be well muscled with some rib showing when walking, a sheen on the coat, a deep girth and high withers.
The deep girth gave a good indication of heart and lung capacity, the high withers indicating stride length.
Just for banter.
Lindsay
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Sunday, 21 May 2017 11:45 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
Hi Lindsay,
The mass of a horse is as you say known to the trainers and the public in Hong Kong and Japan.
Why do you think the connections of a trainer or punters in HK etc cannot use that information?
The length of a horse is not defined in any racing jurisdiction.
An average is about 8.4 feet from established sires. (2.75m is 9.1 feet).
The frame size of a horse is fully grown at about 3-4 years. Growth change of components may go on until 5 years.
I explained earlier that the length of a horse is irrelevant to punting if time -lengths are used.
You are correct that weight changes can be good or bad as far as performance is concerned.
The problem is that joe-public can only judge (guess) that at the track but the trainer has the full information at time of entry.
Roughly does mean roughly.
Each horse varies in what it can do with what nature has provided.
If you have more precise information then it is used - if no extra information, then averages are used.
Again the makeup of heart , lungs etc varies enormously.
The point I was making is that if you simply ignore the energy production and requirements of all that which goes together to produce a performance, you get the wrong answers.
What you can do is use what information you do have when you have it. All components gets boiled down into how the horse has performed on the track so the individual contributions add up to a performance - exactly how is not so important as the performance.
However for a given horse all the components are more or less fixed - the big variable race to race is the horse body weight.
Boxing fights give that key information.
Racehorse trainers know it is key information.
And that is why it is so important and is wrong that punters do not get that information as a given.
Robert
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race Stats
Sent: Saturday, May 20, 2017 6:44 AM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
Hi Tony and Robert,
The mass of the horse is unknown except to the trainer and stable hands, so the equation is doomed at the very start.
One cannot use 2.75 metres for a horse, that horse would have to be 17 hands plus.
Again when trying to put it into an equation, you get out what you put in.
Horses are not fully grown until the age of 7.
So using 2.75 metres for a 2yo, 3yo or 4yo will be inaccurate.
Trainers do weigh their horses here, but it is not published anywhere I've seen.
Weight of the horse has another aspect to it, has it lost fat and gained muscle or has it just trained off?
"A 500 kg horse produce power at roughly the cube of its body weight.
So a 600 Kg horse produces nearly double (1.73 times) the power, for a 20% increase in body weight."
Again this is a presumption of over thousands of different horses.
Body weight does not necessarily mean more power even if it's muscle because it depends on the size of the lungs, heart and throat.
I've literally been at autopsies of horses where the heart and lungs were bigger in the smaller horse.
One would need to know the size of the heart, lungs and muscles to put it into an equation, not just the overall mass, because one does not know what the mass consists of.
Is the mass mainly fluid, bone, stomach, intestine and fat???
I can't think of the name of the horse off hand , but there was a horse racing during the Spring Carnival nearly 18 hands, the commentators remarked on it and you could easily see the difference in the barriers, but it never even placed in all it's starts.
Just my opinion, when working hands on with horses, forgive the pun :) Lindsay.
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Saturday, 20 May 2017 2:26 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
Hi Tony,
The first equation breaks down to M x D when speed is replaces by D/T.
Energy expended is not mass x distance.
The second equation is correct for KE but that is the energy of a body mass M moving at a constant velocity V.
(like an imaginary train running on rails in a vacuum i.e. no energy losses, 100% efficiency).
KE increases linearly with the mass M - so if the body mass increase by 30Kg the KE rises proportionately.
Racing results are often a matter of inches, and that increase alone can certainly make a difference to the result.
A horse does not move at a constant velocity.
It is nowhere near a 100% efficient machine.
A horse spends far more energy each stride in moving its legs, neck and head and raising its body and the jockey each stride, Uses energy to pump blood from its heart and to expand its lungs, replaces energy lost as hooves impact the ground and slip, expends energy against gradients, curves and air resistance.
A horse does not produce energy at a constant rate - it builds up during the race then falters at the finish.
A 500 kg horse produce power at roughly the cube of its body weight.
So a 600 Kg horse produces nearly double (1.73 times) the power, for a 20% increase in body weight.
A variation of 0.19 lengths over 1600 metres is clearly wrong.
Unless you take all the factors into account, you get the wrong answers.
Robert
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: 19 May 2017 16:50
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
Roger Biggs, writing in Handicapping for 21 C examined the premise that weight, time and distance are linked.
The equation he used is E = mass(m) * time(t) * speed(s) where E = energy, mass = weight in kilos, time = time in seconds, speed = speed in metres/second.
This is the energy balance equation. All of us saw this in science in junior high school.
Another equation is KE= (mass/2) * speed * speed
From these he showed that the horse weight, the several hundreds of kilograms, was inconsequential by any comparison.
Using his equation he showed the effect of adding 1 kg to a 500 kg horse(1.16), compared to a 600 kg horse(0.97) slowed these by a value of .19 lengths, as a demonstration.
By varying the weights of the horse, rider, gear between 500 and 600 kg the variation was 0.19 lengths over 1600 metres.
Biggs used the standard 2.75 metres length also, and you can use the calculation formula to produce the answer in seconds, metres or lengths.
This is the first time that the weight/lengths table has been verified using the physics of the racetrack and the very first time that it has been confirmed that the effect of weight increases with distance and what that true magnitude is
This is the early part of the several calculations involved in Speed Handicapping, where times, barrier, jockey and other fundementals are examined.
I sought permission from Roger Biggs, the author, and owner of the text in his book to quote that which I have written. Thank you Mr Biggs.
The book was written/published in 1998.
Newer, better, data is available in a more recent book, Handicapping My Way, written by Roger Biggs and for sale on the RB Ratings site.
Thank you to John Hunter (RB Ratings) for his assistance with this also.
Cheers
Tony
Again - I did not snip, the earlier posts may assist Off the scene for a few days now
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 16, 2017 7:56 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
Hi Tony,
There are no such books I am aware of - I derive new methods myself with inspiration from sport science blogs particularly athletics and cycling.
Eg http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/cJKs
There are today more veterinary papers that deal with energy production, lactates etc.
Tasmania provides stride length data.
So I have got bits and pieces from all over.
What did Biggs ""destroy" exactly - science?
Sports science is a different and all-encompassing world these days.
I introduced time lengths into UK where the camera time for each horse is recorded as it passes the line.
An artificial lengths value is produced based entirely on race time differences for those who still use horse lengths.
Horse lengths are so many 1/5ths of a second(they should be 1/6ths really for flat racing).
In UK racing, races are not always won in the last two or last furlongs.
They are often lost in the first two furlongs.
If you have full race sectional data that becomes apparent but the last two furlongs are probably OK as long as you bear in mind what happened the earlier stages.
Best wishes,
Robert
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: 16 May 2017 06:16
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
Robert thanks
Can you suggest some texts/books which may explain this in full The horse stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, gradient, curve all interest me (and others I would hope)
Biggs, in Australia, destroyed the horse weight involvement argument, and with that also the wind resistance and almost everything associated with the horse running as it did.
See Handicapping for 21 Century
I have been using the overall time and the final 660 metre times but realise that the values can be attributed to different runners, Radish at the 600metres and Doofus at the end/ finish but it's a value now linked in form here so it is meaningful.
It works if you visualise that the runners are static to the winner at the moment of crossing the line, when the time is captured.
Again there were some queries off list but if I can answer them here.
I wrote of the value of 16.5 divided into the race length to get a standard value, centred on 6 over all distances The 16.5 is derived from the product of 6 (lengths per second) times
2.75 (the length standard for a horse here) So that 1400 metres is
1400/16.5 = 84.84 seconds so that runners near that figure or bettering it should be considered.
In effect the 600m time is all you need (to apply data to this method) -all runners have the same value and you can correct that For each runner using finish length times 2.75 minus race length divided by
2.75 divided by 600m TIME. The query arose because the inquirier was dividing by 600 metres, but it is the 600 metre time that has been corrected.
The 600 metre time is useful because it eliminates the different distances run by this runner and having to correct it to todays distance.
It would be natural to modify the time/distance using new run distance divided by old run distance times last run beaten lengths but that may ramp up the prospects of some horse in a fast run race.
Try using old score(lengths per second) divided by new score (lengths per
second) times the old beaten finish distance to give you a new beaten distance.
This correction is for those of us looking for precision. The same amendment can be made using the finishing position(less one) as the first part of the equation And I am sure, but have not tested it over many races, that it will still leave your good horse in contention, although ranked elsewhere, so a second to a fourth ranking perhaps.
Cheers
Tony
I did not snip on purpose
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Thursday, May 11, 2017 9:10 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
Tony,
Hong Kong and Japan give body weights and sectionals which is invaluable to calibrate any model..
In UK where handicaps dominate they refuse to provide that data.
Power production and power availability is determined from sectionals, horse stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, the going at that section (you now have some Turftrax maps in Oz), gradient, curve and drafting. You can observe when the production peaks and falters.
The analysis can only be done by computer.
Bob Wilkins is from Manchester University in UK.
His analysis method is complex enough but misses out a lot of the practical details and that available energy is not produced evenly.
Some of this comes from the lack of pre-race warm up and some that horse differ in how quickly in the race their energy production levels rise.
The even pace theories are not what happens in reality. We know it does not happen at the start or finish but it is uneven in the middle also.
I think it is more reliable for judging fitness visually by comparing what things look like today as compared to the last two races.
Now we have wall to wall racing that has become impractical unless you cut out 90% of racing.
Best wishes,
Robert
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: 11 May 2017 05:42
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
Robert.
Other racing jurisdictions do publicise horse bodyweight, the Asian circuit is one.
They also have so much data to access as well.
If wagering drives racing, and it appears to in Asia and certainly does here, then more data, including horse bodyweight should be made available.
You mention power production and power availability, how is that determined or calculated, or is it from time+distance?
I have read Bio - Energetics? Bob Wilkins(USA)-from the book" It describes a scientific study of competitive running and develops a mathematical model which balances the energy supply from both anaerobic and aerobic sources with the energy required to accelerate the body, sustain running, and overcome air resistance.
When applied to horse racing it allows the relationships between distance, time, weight carried, going, and other factors, to be evaluated.
The model is applied to racing on turf in Britain, but it is easily adapted to racing on other surfaces and tracks.
The result of the model is a Power Equation, which can be used to assess performance in a race in terms of a power rating.
Two methods of assessing performance are examined in detail, based on race time, or on collateral form.
Examples are given of the calculation of time ratings (speed ratings) and form ratings.
This book is not about "how to pick winners" or racing "systems".
It is about the link between equine exercise physiology and racehorse ratings.
A basic under-standing of mathematics is required to follow the development of the model.
The uses of racehorse ratings are only briefly discussed, at the end of the book.
However, because racing and betting are inextricably linked, a short cautionary note on betting is also included."
Some horseplayers state emphatically they can pick a fit horse on sight.
I am aware of several instances where a horse was set for a race, two fitness runs where it was flogged like a criminal then into the set race where it failed, 6th.
It was beaten by a group with two horses who also targeted this race and their plan worked. The horse that failed then won its next two as favourite.
The bookmaker knew, he owned the horses. It was common knowledge in the village that these horses would run well, they did too.
I later rated, using Plante and Scott techniques/methodology, the lead up runs and the actual races and none of those runners were top raters.
I wrote about these incidents 36 years later and may post that exam on Ausrace as it is topical.
Cheers
Tony
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 9, 2017 9:36 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
Lindsay,
The other "unknown" with respect to weight is the horse body weight.
Some unfit horses may lose up to 20kg between races.
They may also put on more muscle and associated power production between races.
They will then often have more power available but still race next with a lower body weight.
If they are carrying less jockey and lead weight, then a further advantage arises.
In UK, only the trainer and owner have direct access to that knowledge, which can make a fool of the long odds based on apparent "form" when the "unfancied" horse races next.
Robert
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race Stats
Sent: 09 May 2017 13:43
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
Hi Tony,
"However, that fast aspect may occur elsewhere in the race, other than in the final moments. I was looking at that score too. The 'midrace'
calculation almost gives the information we need."
Exactly Tony, in the USA they run flat out from the start in most races, so the American time gurus came here and failed miserably.
The Melbourne Cup and The Cox Plate are two races that are generally run at a faster pace than their other similar distance black type races.
"In reality, I don't consider jockeys at all, in my regular punting that is.
They are just a requirement within the rules of racing, provide the handicap race weight and wear a coloured shirt, and pull faces at the crowd at the finish, then blame the barrier if they lose."
The barrier is an excuse, just like the pull in weights.
If the horse loses, it was the barrier or the pull in weights, yet so many horses do win from bad barriers and carry top weight to win.
I've said it before, the way in which weight is allocated, hardly makes a difference to a good horse's performance.
Len, was right when he said that riderless horses past the post first if they run straight, so weight does matter.
However, a riderless horse may have a weight difference of 56 kgs to every other runner!
When one looks at a difference of .50kgs up to 3kgs, the differences are minimal.
Lindsay
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