[AusRace] Lengths per second score

Sun May 7 12:19:07 AEST 2017

Hi Tony,
There are sites which list the times for all horses in a race, racing.com, rwwa etc.
So you can actually work out if a horse is beaten a length, the time per length including sectionals.
I know you accept that 2.75 metres is the average and industry standard, but the error margin is great when you break it down into age and size.
We're looking at seconds, so it's critical that the horse's length is  accurate.
In other words you could use your calculations to get raw figures and then compare them with the times at those sites to see the accuracy.
Maybe you've already done that though ;)
Not criticising your methods, just trying to open the discussion up a bit.
Lindsay.

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: Friday, 5 May 2017 5:01 PM
To: racing at ausrace.com
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score

-----Original Message-----
From: Tony Moffat [mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com]
Sent: Friday, May 5, 2017 10:01 AM
To: Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com>; Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com>
Subject: Lengths per second score 

There has been some queries off the list regarding this.
It was first mentioned in Sydney Cup re-run post.

TO OBTAIN THE LENGTHS PER SECOND SCORE VALUE

I take the beaten lengths and multiply that by 2.75 metres (the length of the horse used for this schematic) then take that sum away from the length of the race. 
The resulting time factor is divided by 2.75 metres then divided again by the time of the race.
Because the form guide shows only the winning time and the winning 600 metre time I have had to adjust those times for the beaten distance.

So, beaten lengths times 2.75 and take that product away from the length the race Then divide that product by 2.75 metres then divide that again by the time of the race This will give you the calculated time for this horse running this distance using this data .

Egg  assume your data looks like this

2 lengths, 1400 metres, 84.02 race time, 35.05 600 metre time, the horse length is assumed to be 2.75 metres ( a standard)

With a calculator, 2 lengths times 2.75, minus the length of the race, divided by 2.75 then divided by the time of the race.
2 x 2.75 = 5.5
Less the race distance 5.5 minus 1400
5.5-1400=1394.5 metres
This equates to the distance this runner covered while the WINNER was running the full distance in the time.
Divide 1394.5 by 2.75 to get the calculated value for this runner
1394.5/2.75 = 507.09 (essentially the number of horse lengths in this
race!) Divide 507.09 by the race time to get a race time value for this runner
507.09/84.02 = 6.03
6.03 is the calculated race rating for this runner. Essentially it is
6.03 lengths for each second of running.

TO OBTAIN THE LENGTHS PER SECOND SCORE VALUE -600M

Do the same calculations for the 600 metre value = (2 *2.75)- 600
=594.5
594.5 metres is the race distance this runner covered while the winner was running the 600 metres Then 594.5/2.75 = 216.18 to get the number of horse lengths in this value (it's weird but associated) Then 216.18 divided by the 600 metre time value to get this runners score for the
600 metres adjusted For its finish position (in lengths)  =
216.18/35.05 = 6.16

To this point we have calculated (with the emphasis on guess) the value for this runner covering the full race distance, adjusted for finish position And we have also calculated the value for this runner covering the last 600 metres of this race, adjusted for finish position.
Full race value = 6.03
600 metre value = 6.16
By comparing all runners and their values you get an idea of the strengths or otherwise of the runners ability at the distance.
Use the race distance close to or equal to the distance of today's race.

THE FULL (UNCORRECTED) LENGTHS PER SECOND SCORE VALUE - for both distances

Obtain the full uncorrected race value for each runner, in other words, do not correct for beaten lengths.
For this runner you would use 1400/2.75/84.02 = 6.05 close to the calculated value

THE MID RACE LENGTH PER SECOND SCORE VALUE 

We have used the full race time and the 600 metre time and it is a simple matter to obtain the mid race time value.
First calculate the distance 1400 less 600 metres = 800 metres Then determine the time factor - we know the winner ran 84.02 for 1400 metres then 35.05 for 600 metres So you get your values for the equation distance/2.75/time  as 800/2.75/(84.02-35.05) = 48.97 So the mid race rate is 800/2.75/48.97 = 5.94 (the sloth) although this includes the start and early race moves.
There is no correction for beaten lengths for this mid race figure.

So this runner has the values
Full Race 6.03
600 m 6.16
Mid race 5.94.
It demonstrates the ability to accelerate and maintain a good score over the 600 metres - a value greater than 6.10 is a plus If the decimal values are confusing then multiply the results by 100. So you have 603,616,594 which seems comforting

There is lots more to the manipulation of the time factor. I will comment on these in future posts perhaps.

Cheers

Tony

Mr 8 today -there are equal first place rankings , 4 and 13.If it does not format correctly try restore line breaks or copy and paste into excel
1	,	84.02	,	35.05		,	6.04	,
5.94	,	3
2	,	84.22	,	35.32		,	6.04	,
5.95	,	9
3	,	80.78	,	35.38		,	6.07	,
6.01	,	8
4	,	63.7	,	34.32		,	6.27	,
6.19	,	1
5	,	96.3	,	34.5		,	5.99	,
5.88	,	6
7	,	200	,	100		,	3.18	,
5.09	,	15
8	,	78.02	,	34.86		,	6.06	,
5.90	,	4
9	,	84.78	,	35.76		,	6.00	,
5.93	,	12
10	,	65.01	,	35.21		,	6.11	,
6.10	,	5
11	,	72.33	,	36.82		,	5.99	,
6.14	,	3
12	,	104.04	,	39.04		,	5.61	,
5.63	,	14
13	,	69.26	,	34.44		,	6.30	,
6.27	,	1
14	,	101.52	,	36.5		,	5.69	,
5.59	,	13
15	,	84.66	,	36.54		,	6.01	,
6.05	,	11
16	,	76.32	,	35.32		,	6.19	,
6.21	,	3
17	,	200	,	100		,	3.18	,
5.09	,	15

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