From tonymoffat at bigpond.com  Mon May  1 17:38:52 2017
From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat)
Date: Mon, 1 May 2017 15:38:52 +0800
Subject: [AusRace] 9/1 and ninety days - a system
Message-ID: <000001d2c24d$fb91ea80$f2b5bf80$@bigpond.com>


Re-send
-----Original Message-----
From: Tony Moffat [mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com] 
Sent: Monday, May 1, 2017 2:16 PM
To: 'Racing' 
Subject: 9/1 and ninety days - a system

You paid for this one time -it was an ad in The Sportsman.
There are three varieties
(a) Priced at less than 9/1 and not raced (or trialled) in the last 90
days.
(b) Three year old or older priced at 9/1 or less and not raced in the
last three months or more in the metro area. 
The instruction paperwork has the condition of 90 days absence, which
may be 3 months only - it's pedantic but rules are rules.
(c) Priced less than $9.00 (so 8/1 now), 90 days or more away from
racing, ridden by a senior jockey.

So, I used 90 days absence, $9 or less today at any time in the
betting.

Contenders
Ipswich R1 -Fallen for You - $6.60 unplaced -149 days Ipswich R1
-Desirable M - $2.70 won- 367 days Mornington R1 - Here's Ya Hat -3rd
-non contender, price rule $41 to $10 Ipswich R2 - Witches Hat - won
$10.20 $8.90 at race time 181 days Ipswich R2 - two other contenders
eliminated, price rule, unplaced Mornington R3- Mo'Shelley - won $2.80
-123 days Mornington R3-Mesclun - 2nd $4.60 - 110 days Mornington R3 -
Flight of Angels - 3rd $10 although $23 to $9 at race time Grafton R2
-Prinipesa - unplaced $4.30 -186 days Grafton R2- Central Witness -3rd
$9.40, 8.60 at race time, 369 days Dubbo R2 -Espresso Martini - won
$3.40 -120 days Mornington R5 -Midnight Warrior - unplace $5.40 -178
days Mornington R6- Mr Optimistic - won $5.30 - 128 days Mornington R6
-Bels Impact - unplaced -$4.80 - 166 days Grafton R4 -Bringit - 2nd
$6.80- 171 days Ipswich R6 -Lord Mamaduke -unplaced $3.30 -142 days
Mornington R7 -Littlesnitz - unplaced -123 days

There are some winners in that lot, but is it the days away rule?
Or does that just help you corral a few runners in the sub $9 range
where you may get a div or three anyway - it's a system.

Ipswich R7 has just run and
Roses of Joy was unplaced,  $580, 183 days but Zilitor 2nd $1.90, 101
days

Dubbo R6 Coop n Demp
Grafton R7 Fighting Belle
Dubbo R7 Yours Mine Ours
Dubbo R7 Banksia

Dubbo Race 5 had Miss Beaumont resuming after 1281 days - she failed
to flatter, as they say. $236.

Cheers


Tony



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From tonymoffat at bigpond.com  Mon May  1 20:50:49 2017
From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat)
Date: Mon, 1 May 2017 18:50:49 +0800
Subject: [AusRace] 9/1 and ninety days - a system
Message-ID: <000001d2c268$cc285bb0$64791310$@bigpond.com>

Dubbo Race6 and GraftonR7 were non-contenders, unplaced and outside
the price parameter.+

Dubbo R7 runners, both qualified and placed first and second
Scroll down for more details.

So, in summary
Winners $2.70, $10,$2.80,$3.40,$5.30,$2.30
Place 6
Unplaced 5

The rules, must be $9 or less in the betting
Must have a spell of a minimum 90 days prior to this run.

Cheers

Tony


-----Original Message-----
From: Tony Moffat [mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com] 
Sent: Monday, May 1, 2017 3:39 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: RE: 9/1 and ninety days - a system


Re-send
-----Original Message-----
From: Tony Moffat [mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com] 
Sent: Monday, May 1, 2017 2:16 PM
To: 'Racing' 
Subject: 9/1 and ninety days - a system

You paid for this one time -it was an ad in The Sportsman.
There are three varieties
(a) Priced at less than 9/1 and not raced (or trialled) in the last 90
days.
(b) Three year old or older priced at 9/1 or less and not raced in the
last three months or more in the metro area. 
The instruction paperwork has the condition of 90 days absence, which
may be 3 months only - it's pedantic but rules are rules.
(c) Priced less than $9.00 (so 8/1 now), 90 days or more away from
racing, ridden by a senior jockey.

So, I used 90 days absence, $9 or less today at any time in the
betting.

Contenders
Ipswich R1 -Fallen for You - $6.60 unplaced -149 days Ipswich R1
-Desirable M - $2.70 won- 367 days Mornington R1 - Here's Ya Hat -3rd
-non contender, price rule $41 to $10 Ipswich R2 - Witches Hat - won
$10.20 $8.90 at race time 181 days Ipswich R2 - two other contenders
eliminated, price rule, unplaced Mornington R3- Mo'Shelley - won $2.80
-123 days Mornington R3-Mesclun - 2nd $4.60 - 110 days Mornington R3 -
Flight of Angels - 3rd $10 although $23 to $9 at race time Grafton R2
-Prinipesa - unplaced $4.30 -186 days Grafton R2- Central Witness -3rd
$9.40, 8.60 at race time, 369 days Dubbo R2 -Espresso Martini - won
$3.40 -120 days Mornington R5 -Midnight Warrior - unplace $5.40 -178
days Mornington R6- Mr Optimistic - won $5.30 - 128 days Mornington R6
-Bels Impact - unplaced -$4.80 - 166 days Grafton R4 -Bringit - 2nd
$6.80- 171 days Ipswich R6 -Lord Mamaduke -unplaced $3.30 -142 days
Mornington R7 -Littlesnitz - unplaced -123 days

There are some winners in that lot, but is it the days away rule?
Or does that just help you corral a few runners in the sub $9 range
where you may get a div or three anyway - it's a system.

Ipswich R7 has just run and
Roses of Joy was unplaced,  $5.80, 183 days but Zilitor 2nd $1.90, 101
days

Dubbo R6 Coop n Demp
Grafton R7 Fighting Belle
Dubbo R7 Yours Mine Ours
Dubbo R7 Banksia

Dubbo Race 5 had Miss Beaumont resuming after 1281 days - she failed
to flatter, as they say. $236.

Cheers


Tony



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From tonymoffat at bigpond.com  Fri May  5 17:00:32 2017
From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat)
Date: Fri, 5 May 2017 15:00:32 +0800
Subject: [AusRace] Lengths per second score
Message-ID: <000001d2c56d$49e9c550$ddbd4ff0$@bigpond.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: Tony Moffat [mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com] 
Sent: Friday, May 5, 2017 10:01 AM
To: Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com>; Racing
<racing-bounces at ausrace.com>
Subject: Lengths per second score 

There has been some queries off the list regarding this.
It was first mentioned in Sydney Cup re-run post.

TO OBTAIN THE LENGTHS PER SECOND SCORE VALUE

I take the beaten lengths and multiply that by 2.75 metres (the length
of the horse used for this schematic) then take that sum away from the
length of the race. 
The resulting time factor is divided by 2.75 metres then divided again
by the time of the race.
Because the form guide shows only the winning time and the winning 600
metre time I have had to adjust those times for the beaten distance.

So, beaten lengths times 2.75 and take that product away from the
length the race Then divide that product by 2.75 metres then divide
that again by the time of the race This will give you the calculated
time for this horse running this distance using this data .

Egg  assume your data looks like this

2 lengths, 1400 metres, 84.02 race time, 35.05 600 metre time, the
horse length is assumed to be 2.75 metres ( a standard)

With a calculator, 2 lengths times 2.75, minus the length of the race,
divided by 2.75 then divided by the time of the race.
2 x 2.75 = 5.5
Less the race distance 5.5 minus 1400
5.5-1400=1394.5 metres
This equates to the distance this runner covered while the WINNER was
running the full distance in the time.
Divide 1394.5 by 2.75 to get the calculated value for this runner
1394.5/2.75 = 507.09 (essentially the number of horse lengths in this
race!) Divide 507.09 by the race time to get a race time value for
this runner
507.09/84.02 = 6.03
6.03 is the calculated race rating for this runner. Essentially it is
6.03 lengths for each second of running.

TO OBTAIN THE LENGTHS PER SECOND SCORE VALUE -600M

Do the same calculations for the 600 metre value = (2 *2.75)- 600
=594.5
594.5 metres is the race distance this runner covered while the winner
was running the 600 metres Then 594.5/2.75 = 216.18 to get the number
of horse lengths in this value (it's weird but associated) Then 216.18
divided by the 600 metre time value to get this runners score for the
600 metres adjusted For its finish position (in lengths)  =
216.18/35.05 = 6.16

To this point we have calculated (with the emphasis on guess) the
value for this runner covering the full race distance, adjusted for
finish position And we have also calculated the value for this runner
covering the last 600 metres of this race, adjusted for finish
position.
Full race value = 6.03
600 metre value = 6.16
By comparing all runners and their values you get an idea of the
strengths or otherwise of the runners ability at the distance.
Use the race distance close to or equal to the distance of today's
race.


THE FULL (UNCORRECTED) LENGTHS PER SECOND SCORE VALUE - for both
distances

Obtain the full uncorrected race value for each runner, in other
words, do not correct for beaten lengths.
For this runner you would use 1400/2.75/84.02 = 6.05 close to the
calculated value

THE MID RACE LENGTH PER SECOND SCORE VALUE 

We have used the full race time and the 600 metre time and it is a
simple matter to obtain the mid race time value.
First calculate the distance 1400 less 600 metres = 800 metres Then
determine the time factor - we know the winner ran 84.02 for 1400
metres then 35.05 for 600 metres So you get your values for the
equation distance/2.75/time  as 800/2.75/(84.02-35.05) = 48.97 So the
mid race rate is 800/2.75/48.97 = 5.94 (the sloth) although this
includes the start and early race moves.
There is no correction for beaten lengths for this mid race figure.

So this runner has the values
Full Race 6.03
600 m 6.16
Mid race 5.94.
It demonstrates the ability to accelerate and maintain a good score
over the 600 metres - a value greater than 6.10 is a plus If the
decimal values are confusing then multiply the results by 100. So you
have 603,616,594 which seems comforting

There is lots more to the manipulation of the time factor. I will
comment on these in future posts perhaps.

Cheers

Tony

Mr 8 today -there are equal first place rankings , 4 and 13.If it does
not format correctly try restore line breaks or copy and paste into
excel
1	,	84.02	,	35.05		,	6.04	,
5.94	,	3
2	,	84.22	,	35.32		,	6.04	,
5.95	,	9
3	,	80.78	,	35.38		,	6.07	,
6.01	,	8
4	,	63.7	,	34.32		,	6.27	,
6.19	,	1
5	,	96.3	,	34.5		,	5.99	,
5.88	,	6
7	,	200	,	100		,	3.18	,
5.09	,	15
8	,	78.02	,	34.86		,	6.06	,
5.90	,	4
9	,	84.78	,	35.76		,	6.00	,
5.93	,	12
10	,	65.01	,	35.21		,	6.11	,
6.10	,	5
11	,	72.33	,	36.82		,	5.99	,
6.14	,	3
12	,	104.04	,	39.04		,	5.61	,
5.63	,	14
13	,	69.26	,	34.44		,	6.30	,
6.27	,	1
14	,	101.52	,	36.5		,	5.69	,
5.59	,	13
15	,	84.66	,	36.54		,	6.01	,
6.05	,	11
16	,	76.32	,	35.32		,	6.19	,
6.21	,	3
17	,	200	,	100		,	3.18	,
5.09	,	15








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From mikemcb at southcom.com.au  Fri May  5 18:48:04 2017
From: mikemcb at southcom.com.au (Mike McBain)
Date: Fri, 5 May 2017 18:48:04 +1000
Subject: [AusRace] Lengths per second score
In-Reply-To: <000001d2c56d$49e9c550$ddbd4ff0$@bigpond.com>
References: <000001d2c56d$49e9c550$ddbd4ff0$@bigpond.com>
Message-ID: <005601d2c57c$4f8ef070$eeacd150$@com.au>

Many thanks Tony your work is much appreciated.

Mike.


There has been some queries off the list regarding this.
It was first mentioned in Sydney Cup re-run post.

TO OBTAIN THE LENGTHS PER SECOND SCORE VALUE




From tonymoffat at bigpond.com  Fri May  5 22:33:56 2017
From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat)
Date: Fri, 5 May 2017 20:33:56 +0800
Subject: [AusRace] Lengths per second score
In-Reply-To: <005601d2c57c$4f8ef070$eeacd150$@com.au>
References: <000001d2c56d$49e9c550$ddbd4ff0$@bigpond.com>
	<005601d2c57c$4f8ef070$eeacd150$@com.au>
Message-ID: <000001d2c59b$dda1d8e0$98e58aa0$@bigpond.com>

Mike, and thank you back
I worked on the Wagga Cup too -with a nil result.
I selected 9,1,12,15 and 8,6,3,7 saluted.
I can make an argument for 6,3,7, as they were high in rankings across
the lists
But the winner was out of left field - the market liked it though.

cheers

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Mike
McBain
Sent: Friday, May 5, 2017 4:48 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score

Many thanks Tony your work is much appreciated.

Mike.


There has been some queries off the list regarding this.
It was first mentioned in Sydney Cup re-run post.

TO OBTAIN THE LENGTHS PER SECOND SCORE VALUE


_______________________________________________
Racing mailing list
Racing at ausrace.com
http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com


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From RaceStats at hotmail.com  Sun May  7 12:19:07 2017
From: RaceStats at hotmail.com (Race Stats)
Date: Sun, 7 May 2017 02:19:07 +0000
Subject: [AusRace] Lengths per second score
In-Reply-To: <000001d2c56d$49e9c550$ddbd4ff0$@bigpond.com>
References: <000001d2c56d$49e9c550$ddbd4ff0$@bigpond.com>
Message-ID: <HKXPR02MB059823AE4D81A1E0B7671318BBE90@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>

Hi Tony,
There are sites which list the times for all horses in a race, racing.com, rwwa etc.
So you can actually work out if a horse is beaten a length, the time per length including sectionals.
I know you accept that 2.75 metres is the average and industry standard, but the error margin is great when you break it down into age and size.
We're looking at seconds, so it's critical that the horse's length is  accurate.
In other words you could use your calculations to get raw figures and then compare them with the times at those sites to see the accuracy.
Maybe you've already done that though ;)
Not criticising your methods, just trying to open the discussion up a bit.
Lindsay.

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: Friday, 5 May 2017 5:01 PM
To: racing at ausrace.com
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score



-----Original Message-----
From: Tony Moffat [mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com]
Sent: Friday, May 5, 2017 10:01 AM
To: Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com>; Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com>
Subject: Lengths per second score 

There has been some queries off the list regarding this.
It was first mentioned in Sydney Cup re-run post.

TO OBTAIN THE LENGTHS PER SECOND SCORE VALUE

I take the beaten lengths and multiply that by 2.75 metres (the length of the horse used for this schematic) then take that sum away from the length of the race. 
The resulting time factor is divided by 2.75 metres then divided again by the time of the race.
Because the form guide shows only the winning time and the winning 600 metre time I have had to adjust those times for the beaten distance.

So, beaten lengths times 2.75 and take that product away from the length the race Then divide that product by 2.75 metres then divide that again by the time of the race This will give you the calculated time for this horse running this distance using this data .

Egg  assume your data looks like this

2 lengths, 1400 metres, 84.02 race time, 35.05 600 metre time, the horse length is assumed to be 2.75 metres ( a standard)

With a calculator, 2 lengths times 2.75, minus the length of the race, divided by 2.75 then divided by the time of the race.
2 x 2.75 = 5.5
Less the race distance 5.5 minus 1400
5.5-1400=1394.5 metres
This equates to the distance this runner covered while the WINNER was running the full distance in the time.
Divide 1394.5 by 2.75 to get the calculated value for this runner
1394.5/2.75 = 507.09 (essentially the number of horse lengths in this
race!) Divide 507.09 by the race time to get a race time value for this runner
507.09/84.02 = 6.03
6.03 is the calculated race rating for this runner. Essentially it is
6.03 lengths for each second of running.

TO OBTAIN THE LENGTHS PER SECOND SCORE VALUE -600M

Do the same calculations for the 600 metre value = (2 *2.75)- 600
=594.5
594.5 metres is the race distance this runner covered while the winner was running the 600 metres Then 594.5/2.75 = 216.18 to get the number of horse lengths in this value (it's weird but associated) Then 216.18 divided by the 600 metre time value to get this runners score for the
600 metres adjusted For its finish position (in lengths)  =
216.18/35.05 = 6.16

To this point we have calculated (with the emphasis on guess) the value for this runner covering the full race distance, adjusted for finish position And we have also calculated the value for this runner covering the last 600 metres of this race, adjusted for finish position.
Full race value = 6.03
600 metre value = 6.16
By comparing all runners and their values you get an idea of the strengths or otherwise of the runners ability at the distance.
Use the race distance close to or equal to the distance of today's race.


THE FULL (UNCORRECTED) LENGTHS PER SECOND SCORE VALUE - for both distances

Obtain the full uncorrected race value for each runner, in other words, do not correct for beaten lengths.
For this runner you would use 1400/2.75/84.02 = 6.05 close to the calculated value

THE MID RACE LENGTH PER SECOND SCORE VALUE 

We have used the full race time and the 600 metre time and it is a simple matter to obtain the mid race time value.
First calculate the distance 1400 less 600 metres = 800 metres Then determine the time factor - we know the winner ran 84.02 for 1400 metres then 35.05 for 600 metres So you get your values for the equation distance/2.75/time  as 800/2.75/(84.02-35.05) = 48.97 So the mid race rate is 800/2.75/48.97 = 5.94 (the sloth) although this includes the start and early race moves.
There is no correction for beaten lengths for this mid race figure.

So this runner has the values
Full Race 6.03
600 m 6.16
Mid race 5.94.
It demonstrates the ability to accelerate and maintain a good score over the 600 metres - a value greater than 6.10 is a plus If the decimal values are confusing then multiply the results by 100. So you have 603,616,594 which seems comforting

There is lots more to the manipulation of the time factor. I will comment on these in future posts perhaps.

Cheers

Tony

Mr 8 today -there are equal first place rankings , 4 and 13.If it does not format correctly try restore line breaks or copy and paste into excel
1	,	84.02	,	35.05		,	6.04	,
5.94	,	3
2	,	84.22	,	35.32		,	6.04	,
5.95	,	9
3	,	80.78	,	35.38		,	6.07	,
6.01	,	8
4	,	63.7	,	34.32		,	6.27	,
6.19	,	1
5	,	96.3	,	34.5		,	5.99	,
5.88	,	6
7	,	200	,	100		,	3.18	,
5.09	,	15
8	,	78.02	,	34.86		,	6.06	,
5.90	,	4
9	,	84.78	,	35.76		,	6.00	,
5.93	,	12
10	,	65.01	,	35.21		,	6.11	,
6.10	,	5
11	,	72.33	,	36.82		,	5.99	,
6.14	,	3
12	,	104.04	,	39.04		,	5.61	,
5.63	,	14
13	,	69.26	,	34.44		,	6.30	,
6.27	,	1
14	,	101.52	,	36.5		,	5.69	,
5.59	,	13
15	,	84.66	,	36.54		,	6.01	,
6.05	,	11
16	,	76.32	,	35.32		,	6.19	,
6.21	,	3
17	,	200	,	100		,	3.18	,
5.09	,	15








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From essbee at internode.on.net  Sun May  7 13:08:24 2017
From: essbee at internode.on.net (Steve)
Date: Sun, 7 May 2017 13:08:24 +1000
Subject: [AusRace] Lengths per second score
In-Reply-To: <HKXPR02MB059823AE4D81A1E0B7671318BBE90@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>
References: <000001d2c56d$49e9c550$ddbd4ff0$@bigpond.com>
	<HKXPR02MB059823AE4D81A1E0B7671318BBE90@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>
Message-ID: <cb16a2e7-ca82-d87a-a894-1a4f4365545c@internode.on.net>

Lindsay,
My opinion is the physical length of the horse is irrelevant when trying 
to do this
The margins these days are a function of time as you know, so that 
knowing the actual length of a horse is irrelevant in my opinion.
WA will use .16 seconds per lengths(6.25LPS) regardless of going, 
distance, speed,......................
SA(from long ago) will use who knows what, but I figured (from memory) 
it was anywhere between .15 and .17 seconds per length and no pattern 
could I find, to determine why they used which.
Did not know racing.com gave times, but just checked r8 yesterday and it 
appeared to be circa 5.7LPS(.175SPL).

Thus length margins are a pain in the arse, because they mean different 
things depending on where.
I spent weeks, years back studying this, looking for a pattern, so that 
I could transpose lengths back to times everywhere, but it was not to be
All because those geniuses at the data repository, had empty fields for 
the individual times(yes they had a field but it was unpopulated, or so 
I was told by the guy responsible!!)

Roughly....the shorter the distance then the more metres to a length.
 From WA data only where it is .16spl
1000M a length is about 2.64 metres when related to times
2400 its about 2.44m
the bigger the margin, then the smaller the length per metre value, 
except for the small margins <.5 where the errors are necessarily larger.

And all because they won't give accurate times, from which they derive 
the inaccurate margins.
They seem to think inaccurate margins is all the long suffering punters 
deserve!

SteveB

On 07/05/2017 12:19 PM, Race Stats wrote:
> Hi Tony,
> There are sites which list the times for all horses in a race, racing.com, rwwa etc.
> So you can actually work out if a horse is beaten a length, the time per length including sectionals.
> I know you accept that 2.75 metres is the average and industry standard, but the error margin is great when you break it down into age and size.
> We're looking at seconds, so it's critical that the horse's length is  accurate.
> In other words you could use your calculations to get raw figures and then compare them with the times at those sites to see the accuracy.
> Maybe you've already done that though ;)
> Not criticising your methods, just trying to open the discussion up a bit.
> Lindsay.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
> Sent: Friday, 5 May 2017 5:01 PM
> To: racing at ausrace.com
> Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score
>
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Tony Moffat [mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com]
> Sent: Friday, May 5, 2017 10:01 AM
> To: Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com>; Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com>
> Subject: Lengths per second score
>
> There has been some queries off the list regarding this.
> It was first mentioned in Sydney Cup re-run post.
>

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From RaceStats at hotmail.com  Sun May  7 15:34:20 2017
From: RaceStats at hotmail.com (Race Stats)
Date: Sun, 7 May 2017 05:34:20 +0000
Subject: [AusRace] Lengths per second score
In-Reply-To: <cb16a2e7-ca82-d87a-a894-1a4f4365545c@internode.on.net>
References: <000001d2c56d$49e9c550$ddbd4ff0$@bigpond.com>
	<HKXPR02MB059823AE4D81A1E0B7671318BBE90@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>
	<cb16a2e7-ca82-d87a-a894-1a4f4365545c@internode.on.net>
Message-ID: <HKXPR02MB0598F92BB98B0FA1B0CC1EB4BBE90@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>

That makes sense Steve,
And from what I've found there are so many errors, no matter what site you look at, it becomes a task in vain.
Sites like rwwa cris and HKJC in particular at least give some useful information.
Lindsay


From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Steve
Sent: Sunday, 7 May 2017 1:08 PM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score

Lindsay,
My opinion is the physical length of the horse is irrelevant when trying to do this
The margins these days are a function of time as you know, so that knowing the actual length of a horse is irrelevant in my opinion.
WA will use .16 seconds per lengths(6.25LPS) regardless of going, distance, speed,......................
SA(from long ago) will use who knows what, but I figured (from memory) it was anywhere between .15 and .17 seconds per length and no pattern could I find, to determine why they used which.
Did not know racing.com gave times, but just checked r8 yesterday and it appeared to be circa 5.7LPS(.175SPL).

Thus length margins are a pain in the arse, because they mean different things depending on where.
I spent weeks, years back studying this, looking for a pattern, so that I could transpose lengths back to times everywhere, but it was not to be
All because those geniuses at the data repository, had empty fields for the individual times(yes they had a field but it was unpopulated, or so I was told by the guy responsible!!)

Roughly....the shorter the distance then the more metres to a length.
>From WA data only where it is .16spl
1000M a length is about 2.64 metres when related to times
2400 its about 2.44m
the bigger the margin, then the smaller the length per metre value, except for the small margins <.5 where the errors are necessarily larger.

And all because they won't give accurate times, from which they derive the inaccurate margins.
They seem to think inaccurate margins is all the long suffering punters deserve!

SteveB

On 07/05/2017 12:19 PM, Race Stats wrote:

Hi Tony,

There are sites which list the times for all horses in a race, racing.com, rwwa etc.

So you can actually work out if a horse is beaten a length, the time per length including sectionals.

I know you accept that 2.75 metres is the average and industry standard, but the error margin is great when you break it down into age and size.

We're looking at seconds, so it's critical that the horse's length is  accurate.

In other words you could use your calculations to get raw figures and then compare them with the times at those sites to see the accuracy.

Maybe you've already done that though ;)

Not criticising your methods, just trying to open the discussion up a bit.

Lindsay.



-----Original Message-----

From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat

Sent: Friday, 5 May 2017 5:01 PM

To: racing at ausrace.com<mailto:racing at ausrace.com>

Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score







-----Original Message-----

From: Tony Moffat [mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com]

Sent: Friday, May 5, 2017 10:01 AM

To: Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com><mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com>; Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com><mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com>

Subject: Lengths per second score



There has been some queries off the list regarding this.

It was first mentioned in Sydney Cup re-run post.



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From awchildmelb at gmail.com  Sun May  7 19:45:50 2017
From: awchildmelb at gmail.com (Andrew Child)
Date: Sun, 7 May 2017 19:45:50 +1000
Subject: [AusRace] Lengths per second score
In-Reply-To: <HKXPR02MB0598F92BB98B0FA1B0CC1EB4BBE90@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>
References: <000001d2c56d$49e9c550$ddbd4ff0$@bigpond.com>
	<HKXPR02MB059823AE4D81A1E0B7671318BBE90@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>
	<cb16a2e7-ca82-d87a-a894-1a4f4365545c@internode.on.net>
	<HKXPR02MB0598F92BB98B0FA1B0CC1EB4BBE90@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>
Message-ID: <a62b2319-f965-d7a8-80c8-af63eaa0c2b5@gmail.com>

How can you consider lengths/sec without weight? Going?


On 7/05/2017 3:34 PM, Race Stats wrote:
>
> That makes sense Steve,
>
> And from what I?ve found there are so many errors, no matter what site 
> you look at, it becomes a task in vain.
>
> Sites like rwwa cris and HKJC in particular at least give some useful 
> information.
>
> Lindsay
>
> *From:*Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] *On Behalf Of *Steve
> *Sent:* Sunday, 7 May 2017 1:08 PM
> *To:* AusRace Racing Discussion List
> *Subject:* Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score
>
> Lindsay,
> My opinion is the physical length of the horse is irrelevant when 
> trying to do this
> The margins these days are a function of time as you know, so that 
> knowing the actual length of a horse is irrelevant in my opinion.
> WA will use .16 seconds per lengths(6.25LPS) regardless of going, 
> distance, speed,......................
> SA(from long ago) will use who knows what, but I figured (from memory) 
> it was anywhere between .15 and .17 seconds per length and no pattern 
> could I find, to determine why they used which.
> Did not know racing.com gave times, but just checked r8 yesterday and 
> it appeared to be circa 5.7LPS(.175SPL).
>
> Thus length margins are a pain in the arse, because they mean 
> different things depending on where.
> I spent weeks, years back studying this, looking for a pattern, so 
> that I could transpose lengths back to times everywhere, but it was 
> not to be
> All because those geniuses at the data repository, had empty fields 
> for the individual times(yes they had a field but it was unpopulated, 
> or so I was told by the guy responsible!!)
>
> Roughly....the shorter the distance then the more metres to a length.
> From WA data only where it is .16spl
> 1000M a length is about 2.64 metres when related to times
> 2400 its about 2.44m
> the bigger the margin, then the smaller the length per metre value, 
> except for the small margins <.5 where the errors are necessarily larger.
>
> And all because they won't give accurate times, from which they derive 
> the inaccurate margins.
> They seem to think inaccurate margins is all the long suffering 
> punters deserve!
>
> SteveB
>
> On 07/05/2017 12:19 PM, Race Stats wrote:
>
>     Hi Tony,
>
>     There are sites which list the times for all horses in a race, racing.com, rwwa etc.
>
>     So you can actually work out if a horse is beaten a length, the time per length including sectionals.
>
>     I know you accept that 2.75 metres is the average and industry standard, but the error margin is great when you break it down into age and size.
>
>     We're looking at seconds, so it's critical that the horse's length is  accurate.
>
>     In other words you could use your calculations to get raw figures and then compare them with the times at those sites to see the accuracy.
>
>     Maybe you've already done that though ;)
>
>     Not criticising your methods, just trying to open the discussion up a bit.
>
>     Lindsay.
>
>     -----Original Message-----
>
>     From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
>
>     Sent: Friday, 5 May 2017 5:01 PM
>
>     To:racing at ausrace.com <mailto:racing at ausrace.com>
>
>     Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score
>
>     -----Original Message-----
>
>     From: Tony Moffat [mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com]
>
>     Sent: Friday, May 5, 2017 10:01 AM
>
>     To: Racing<racing-bounces at ausrace.com> <mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com>; Racing<racing-bounces at ausrace.com> <mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com>
>
>     Subject: Lengths per second score
>
>     There has been some queries off the list regarding this.
>
>     It was first mentioned in Sydney Cup re-run post.
>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Racing mailing list
> Racing at ausrace.com
> http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com

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From tonymoffat at bigpond.com  Tue May  9 13:16:34 2017
From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat)
Date: Tue, 9 May 2017 11:16:34 +0800
Subject: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
Message-ID: <000001d2c872$aa0ad7f0$fe2087d0$@bigpond.com>

The value 2.75 metres for each horse is suggested in order to get
started on the problem of what to do with times. I was interested in
using the value as the time, overall and sectional, is an inclusion in
form guides and I think that using that data may point us towards a
winner, or loser more often.

Fast horses win races is the conclusion you most often hear. However,
that fast aspect may occur elsewhere in the race, other than in the
final moments. I was looking at that score too. The 'midrace'
calculation almost gives the information we need. Other form providers
may give you all the data for every metre of the running, I was just
using what was available for free for the time being. In this
instance, this month, I have used Racerate form guides.

I subscribe to a csv feed also although the 600 m time has been
replaced with a shorter distance time. The data supplier says that the
horse times are calculated from the winning horse time, it's lengths
per second times is used to calculate the following runner scores, as
lengths from the winner. As quick as I release the enter key the data
arrives and is calculated, for shorter distance though, not 600 m. I
used the 600m time so that readers could associate with that more
readily.

 The horse timers, an electronic device, is in the saddle cloth, so
half down the length of the horse. 

Nothing is precise in this game nor is it imprecise to generalise,
that's why they have odds. 

Perhaps the provision of the winning or losing lengths should be left
as metres, it's actually more functional but not a value that race
goers, punters even, can associate to. 
I find it interesting that race goers still talk in miles but have
universally stopped referring to furlongs and at least are talking in
kilograms because pounds avoirdupois is foreign, or at least old
school, to them. 

Often horses win a race from a pattern, fast start, mid race cruise,
moderate finish but strong, and then it is not ridden that way for 3-4
runs, almost certainly because of the jockey. This scoring of lengths
per second may highlight this pattern. Then if a positive jockey
switch occurs is it then time to plonk the hard earned down.

In reality, I don't consider jockeys at all, in my regular punting
that is. They are just a requirement within the rules of racing,
provide the handicap race weight and wear a  coloured shirt, and pull
faces at the crowd at the finish, then blame the barrier if they lose.


I mentioned the calculation of mid race speed, that portion of the run
from the start to the point where the final 600 metres commences and
found that interesting. 
There is an upcoming treatise, well typewriting then, on time and
weight and time and distance whereby certain matters are examined. For
the time being I use the standard(mine), race distance divided by
16.25 to give me the standard(mine) of 6 lengths per second for any
distance and work or compare the runners mark or score with that. It
appears to cross over at about 1400 metres where a readily achievable
rate, lengths per second, is obtained, the whole race time 86.15
seconds, then becomes increasingly unattainable as distance increases.
The 96. barrier at 1600 metres proves elusive and tactics enter into
calculations, fast early, fast late and has your horse demonstrated
that?.
I don't use time in deciding my selections, this is just an interest
at the present time.
 Cheers

Tony


>From an earlier book
7-1 OLE AND THE BACKLINE SAGA++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
 Next job was with a cattle shipping company. 
Their buyers would organise for truckloads of cattle to be bought to
the yards at the railway station were they would be sorted, drafted
and sent on their way. Some to butchers, some to a company property in
north east NSW and another in central Queensland. It was dusty fun and
required you to be able to count past 20, a challenge.

One day I was tasked to muster and load these cattle from a property.
There was just me initially to muster and push the cattle up into the
yards. 

Did I mention these were rodeo bulls?

 Well, I found this out later but the company car I was using, yes,
car, took upon itself to stop and not re start mid paddock behind the
sizeable rumps of angry bulls.

 I left the vehicle, and after determining it was an electrical fault
which required a new battery, I commenced to walk through the mob
towards the yards, the road and salvation. It was not to be.

 The bullock bullies turned on me and there was a period of side
steps, back and sideways avoidances, and I used a technique told to me
which is to slap and punch the side of the bulls and make a noise so
that they are intimidated and stop, although it is more because they
are diverted and confused, said a leather faced old stockman later.

 Some of those bulls were more tenderised by me than intimidated or
confused, the technique does not work and later, when the opportunity
to run at Pamplona arose I declined, citing the fact that I did not
have the uniform.

 Next, and only then, I begin a running for one's life towards the
fence.

 I was once a front row forward but now felt I had the fleet of foot
of an outside centre, all that was missing was the purse and the hair
style, but I made it. 

The noise, you know the roars the T Rex has in Jurassic Park 1-7 well
a couple of those bully boys did that.

 So, next night I go to footy training, I'm telling the coach what
happened, he is laughing like you wouldn't believe, so much so that
everybody stops, and I have to retell. They are all laughing now and
then I mention I want to be considered for the position of outside
centre, and there was pandemonium, seriously, a little bit insensitive
really, especially for a prospective backline player now.

 Back to the bulls. I am sitting on the fence, they are roaring at me,
and I feel like a smoke, smokes are in the car. So, I get off the
fence and walk into the yard and towards the paddock gate at the end
or start of the lane. 

First one then 5 or so of those cow boys see me and start running
towards me, into the laneway and towards the yard. This might work I
think. I stand there for an eternity, then when the male cows are near
me I spring onto, up and over the fence, run into the paddock and
close the gate into the laneway.

 Job done I reckon.

 I then realise I have company. Two staff employed by the truck owner
have arrived and have witnessed what just occurred. One said 'Ole'
which was probably appropriate. 

We use their vehicle to start my vehicle, I get my smoke and a drink,
we load the cattle and I trust they were good eating wherever they
went. The meat tenderness started with me. 

One of the men who loaded the cattle was a rodeo rider, it's a part
time occupation I guess, you spend a lot of time in free fall too, and
he spoke with an American accent. He was from Hay, y'all. 
He had never been to the US of A but just felt comfortable talking
like a cowboy.

 I have noticed this American accent thing several times and it often
occurs in music also. What a culture vulture I am.




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From RaceStats at hotmail.com  Tue May  9 22:43:16 2017
From: RaceStats at hotmail.com (Race Stats)
Date: Tue, 9 May 2017 12:43:16 +0000
Subject: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
In-Reply-To: <000001d2c872$aa0ad7f0$fe2087d0$@bigpond.com>
References: <000001d2c872$aa0ad7f0$fe2087d0$@bigpond.com>
Message-ID: <HKXPR02MB05989D34967D89D931DEC243BBEF0@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>

Hi Tony,

"However, that fast aspect may occur elsewhere in the race, other than in the final moments. I was looking at that score too. The 'midrace'
calculation almost gives the information we need."

Exactly Tony, in the USA they run flat out from the start in most races, so the American time gurus came here and failed miserably.
The Melbourne Cup and The Cox Plate are two races that are generally run at a faster pace than their other similar distance black type races.

"In reality, I don't consider jockeys at all, in my regular punting that is. They are just a requirement within the rules of racing, provide the handicap race weight and wear a  coloured shirt, and pull faces at the crowd at the finish, then blame the barrier if they lose."

The barrier is an excuse, just like the pull in weights.
If the horse loses, it was the barrier or the pull in weights, yet so many horses do win from bad barriers and carry top weight to win.
I've said it before, the way in which weight is allocated, hardly makes a difference to a good horse's performance.
Len, was right when he said that riderless horses past the post first if they run straight, so weight does matter.
However, a riderless horse may have a weight difference of 56 kgs to every other runner!
When one looks at a difference of .50kgs up to 3kgs, the differences are minimal.
Lindsay






From kernow.fords at ntlworld.com  Tue May  9 23:36:15 2017
From: kernow.fords at ntlworld.com (Robert Ford)
Date: Tue, 9 May 2017 14:36:15 +0100
Subject: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
In-Reply-To: <HKXPR02MB05989D34967D89D931DEC243BBEF0@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>
References: <000001d2c872$aa0ad7f0$fe2087d0$@bigpond.com>
	<HKXPR02MB05989D34967D89D931DEC243BBEF0@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>
Message-ID: <001301d2c8c9$3b678f30$b236ad90$@ntlworld.com>

Lindsay,

The other "unknown" with respect to weight is the horse body weight.
Some unfit horses may lose up to 20kg between races.
They may also put on more muscle and associated power production between
races.
They will then often have more power available but still race next with a
lower body weight.
If they are carrying less jockey and lead weight, then a further advantage
arises.
In UK, only the trainer and owner have direct access to that knowledge,
which can make a fool of the long odds based on  apparent "form" when the
"unfancied" horse races next.

Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race Stats
Sent: 09 May 2017 13:43
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

"However, that fast aspect may occur elsewhere in the race, other than in
the final moments. I was looking at that score too. The 'midrace'
calculation almost gives the information we need."

Exactly Tony, in the USA they run flat out from the start in most races, so
the American time gurus came here and failed miserably.
The Melbourne Cup and The Cox Plate are two races that are generally run at
a faster pace than their other similar distance black type races.

"In reality, I don't consider jockeys at all, in my regular punting that is.
They are just a requirement within the rules of racing, provide the handicap
race weight and wear a  coloured shirt, and pull faces at the crowd at the
finish, then blame the barrier if they lose."

The barrier is an excuse, just like the pull in weights.
If the horse loses, it was the barrier or the pull in weights, yet so many
horses do win from bad barriers and carry top weight to win.
I've said it before, the way in which weight is allocated, hardly makes a
difference to a good horse's performance.
Len, was right when he said that riderless horses past the post first if
they run straight, so weight does matter.
However, a riderless horse may have a weight difference of 56 kgs to every
other runner!
When one looks at a difference of .50kgs up to 3kgs, the differences are
minimal.
Lindsay




_______________________________________________
Racing mailing list
Racing at ausrace.com
http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com




From tonymoffat at bigpond.com  Thu May 11 14:41:33 2017
From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat)
Date: Thu, 11 May 2017 12:41:33 +0800
Subject: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
In-Reply-To: <001301d2c8c9$3b678f30$b236ad90$@ntlworld.com>
References: <000001d2c872$aa0ad7f0$fe2087d0$@bigpond.com>	<HKXPR02MB05989D34967D89D931DEC243BBEF0@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>
	<001301d2c8c9$3b678f30$b236ad90$@ntlworld.com>
Message-ID: <000001d2ca10$de564950$9b02dbf0$@bigpond.com>

Robert.
Other racing jurisdictions do publicise horse bodyweight, the Asian
circuit is one.
They also have so much data to access as well.
If wagering drives racing, and it appears to in Asia and certainly
does here, then more data, including horse bodyweight should be made
available.
You mention power production and power availability, how is that
determined or calculated, or is it from time+distance?

I have read Bio - Energetics? Bob Wilkins(USA)-from the book" It
describes a scientific study of competitive running and develops a
mathematical model which balances
 the energy supply from both anaerobic and aerobic sources with the
energy required to accelerate the body, sustain running, and overcome
air resistance. 
When applied to horse racing it allows the relationships between
distance, time, weight carried, going, and other factors, to be
evaluated. 
The model is applied to racing on turf in Britain, but it is easily
adapted to racing on other surfaces and tracks. 
The result of the model is a Power Equation, which can be used to
assess performance in a race in terms of a power rating.
 Two methods of assessing performance are examined in detail, based on
race time, or on collateral form.
Examples are given of the calculation of time ratings (speed ratings)
and form ratings.
 This book is not about "how to pick winners" or racing "systems". 
It is about the link between equine exercise physiology and racehorse
ratings.
 A basic under-standing of mathematics is required to follow the
development of the model.
 The uses of racehorse ratings are only briefly discussed, at the end
of the book.
 However, because racing and betting are inextricably linked, a short
cautionary note on betting is also included."

Some horseplayers state emphatically they can pick a fit horse on
sight.

I am aware of several instances where a horse was set for a race, two
fitness runs where it was flogged like a criminal then into the set
race where it failed, 6th.
It was beaten by a group with two horses who also targeted this race
and their plan worked. The horse that failed then won its next two as
favourite.
The bookmaker knew, he owned the horses. It was common knowledge in
the village that these horses would run well, they did too.

I later rated, using Plante and Scott techniques/methodology, the lead
up runs and the actual races and none of those runners were top
raters. 
I wrote about these incidents 36 years later and may post that exam on
Ausrace as it is topical.

Cheers

Tony

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert
Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 9, 2017 9:36 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Lindsay,

The other "unknown" with respect to weight is the horse body weight.
Some unfit horses may lose up to 20kg between races.
They may also put on more muscle and associated power production
between races.
They will then often have more power available but still race next
with a lower body weight.
If they are carrying less jockey and lead weight, then a further
advantage arises.
In UK, only the trainer and owner have direct access to that
knowledge, which can make a fool of the long odds based on  apparent
"form" when the "unfancied" horse races next.

Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race
Stats
Sent: 09 May 2017 13:43
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

"However, that fast aspect may occur elsewhere in the race, other than
in the final moments. I was looking at that score too. The 'midrace'
calculation almost gives the information we need."

Exactly Tony, in the USA they run flat out from the start in most
races, so the American time gurus came here and failed miserably.
The Melbourne Cup and The Cox Plate are two races that are generally
run at a faster pace than their other similar distance black type
races.

"In reality, I don't consider jockeys at all, in my regular punting
that is.
They are just a requirement within the rules of racing, provide the
handicap race weight and wear a  coloured shirt, and pull faces at the
crowd at the finish, then blame the barrier if they lose."

The barrier is an excuse, just like the pull in weights.
If the horse loses, it was the barrier or the pull in weights, yet so
many horses do win from bad barriers and carry top weight to win.
I've said it before, the way in which weight is allocated, hardly
makes a difference to a good horse's performance.
Len, was right when he said that riderless horses past the post first
if they run straight, so weight does matter.
However, a riderless horse may have a weight difference of 56 kgs to
every other runner!
When one looks at a difference of .50kgs up to 3kgs, the differences
are minimal.
Lindsay




_______________________________________________
Racing mailing list
Racing at ausrace.com
http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com


_______________________________________________
Racing mailing list
Racing at ausrace.com
http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com


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From kernow.fords at ntlworld.com  Thu May 11 23:09:44 2017
From: kernow.fords at ntlworld.com (Robert Ford)
Date: Thu, 11 May 2017 14:09:44 +0100
Subject: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
In-Reply-To: <000001d2ca10$de564950$9b02dbf0$@bigpond.com>
References: <000001d2c872$aa0ad7f0$fe2087d0$@bigpond.com>	<HKXPR02MB05989D34967D89D931DEC243BBEF0@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>	<001301d2c8c9$3b678f30$b236ad90$@ntlworld.com>
	<000001d2ca10$de564950$9b02dbf0$@bigpond.com>
Message-ID: <00ef01d2ca57$dbf30cb0$93d92610$@ntlworld.com>

Tony,


Hong Kong and Japan give body weights and sectionals which is invaluable to
calibrate any model..
In UK where handicaps dominate they refuse to provide that data.

Power production and power availability is determined from sectionals, horse
stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, the going at that section 
(you now have some Turftrax maps in Oz), gradient, curve and drafting. You
can observe when the production peaks and falters.
The analysis can only be done by computer.

Bob Wilkins is from Manchester University in UK.
His analysis method is complex enough but misses out a lot of the practical
details and that available energy is not produced evenly. 
Some of this comes from the lack of pre-race warm up and some that horse
differ in how quickly in the race their energy production levels rise. 
The even pace theories are not what happens in reality. We know it does not
happen at the start or finish but it is uneven in the middle also.

I think it is more reliable for judging fitness visually by comparing what
things look like today as compared to the last two races.
Now we have wall to wall racing that has become impractical unless you cut
out 90% of racing.

Best wishes,
Robert



-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: 11 May 2017 05:42
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Robert.
Other racing jurisdictions do publicise horse bodyweight, the Asian circuit
is one.
They also have so much data to access as well.
If wagering drives racing, and it appears to in Asia and certainly does
here, then more data, including horse bodyweight should be made available.
You mention power production and power availability, how is that determined
or calculated, or is it from time+distance?

I have read Bio - Energetics? Bob Wilkins(USA)-from the book" It describes a
scientific study of competitive running and develops a mathematical model
which balances  the energy supply from both anaerobic and aerobic sources
with the energy required to accelerate the body, sustain running, and
overcome air resistance. 
When applied to horse racing it allows the relationships between distance,
time, weight carried, going, and other factors, to be evaluated. 
The model is applied to racing on turf in Britain, but it is easily adapted
to racing on other surfaces and tracks. 
The result of the model is a Power Equation, which can be used to assess
performance in a race in terms of a power rating.
 Two methods of assessing performance are examined in detail, based on race
time, or on collateral form.
Examples are given of the calculation of time ratings (speed ratings) and
form ratings.
 This book is not about "how to pick winners" or racing "systems". 
It is about the link between equine exercise physiology and racehorse
ratings.
 A basic under-standing of mathematics is required to follow the development
of the model.
 The uses of racehorse ratings are only briefly discussed, at the end of the
book.
 However, because racing and betting are inextricably linked, a short
cautionary note on betting is also included."

Some horseplayers state emphatically they can pick a fit horse on sight.

I am aware of several instances where a horse was set for a race, two
fitness runs where it was flogged like a criminal then into the set race
where it failed, 6th.
It was beaten by a group with two horses who also targeted this race and
their plan worked. The horse that failed then won its next two as favourite.
The bookmaker knew, he owned the horses. It was common knowledge in the
village that these horses would run well, they did too.

I later rated, using Plante and Scott techniques/methodology, the lead up
runs and the actual races and none of those runners were top raters. 
I wrote about these incidents 36 years later and may post that exam on
Ausrace as it is topical.

Cheers

Tony

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 9, 2017 9:36 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Lindsay,

The other "unknown" with respect to weight is the horse body weight.
Some unfit horses may lose up to 20kg between races.
They may also put on more muscle and associated power production between
races.
They will then often have more power available but still race next with a
lower body weight.
If they are carrying less jockey and lead weight, then a further advantage
arises.
In UK, only the trainer and owner have direct access to that knowledge,
which can make a fool of the long odds based on  apparent "form" when the
"unfancied" horse races next.

Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race Stats
Sent: 09 May 2017 13:43
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

"However, that fast aspect may occur elsewhere in the race, other than in
the final moments. I was looking at that score too. The 'midrace'
calculation almost gives the information we need."

Exactly Tony, in the USA they run flat out from the start in most races, so
the American time gurus came here and failed miserably.
The Melbourne Cup and The Cox Plate are two races that are generally run at
a faster pace than their other similar distance black type races.

"In reality, I don't consider jockeys at all, in my regular punting that is.
They are just a requirement within the rules of racing, provide the handicap
race weight and wear a  coloured shirt, and pull faces at the crowd at the
finish, then blame the barrier if they lose."

The barrier is an excuse, just like the pull in weights.
If the horse loses, it was the barrier or the pull in weights, yet so many
horses do win from bad barriers and carry top weight to win.
I've said it before, the way in which weight is allocated, hardly makes a
difference to a good horse's performance.
Len, was right when he said that riderless horses past the post first if
they run straight, so weight does matter.
However, a riderless horse may have a weight difference of 56 kgs to every
other runner!
When one looks at a difference of .50kgs up to 3kgs, the differences are
minimal.
Lindsay




_______________________________________________
Racing mailing list
Racing at ausrace.com
http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com


_______________________________________________
Racing mailing list
Racing at ausrace.com
http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com


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From tonymoffat at bigpond.com  Tue May 16 15:15:54 2017
From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat)
Date: Tue, 16 May 2017 13:15:54 +0800
Subject: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
In-Reply-To: <00ef01d2ca57$dbf30cb0$93d92610$@ntlworld.com>
References: <000001d2c872$aa0ad7f0$fe2087d0$@bigpond.com>	<HKXPR02MB05989D34967D89D931DEC243BBEF0@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>	<001301d2c8c9$3b678f30$b236ad90$@ntlworld.com>	<000001d2ca10$de564950$9b02dbf0$@bigpond.com>
	<00ef01d2ca57$dbf30cb0$93d92610$@ntlworld.com>
Message-ID: <000001d2ce03$7efc8db0$7cf5a910$@bigpond.com>

Robert thanks
Can you suggest some texts/books which may explain this in full
The horse stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, gradient, curve
all interest me (and others I would hope)

Biggs, in Australia, destroyed the horse weight involvement argument,
and with that also the wind resistance
and almost everything associated with the horse running as it did.
 See Handicapping for 21 Century

I have been using the overall time and the final 660 metre times but
realise that
the values can be attributed to different runners, Radish at the
600metres and Doofus at the end/ finish
but it's a value now linked in form here so it is meaningful.

It works if you visualise that the runners are static to the winner at
the moment of crossing the line, when the time is captured.

Again there were some queries off list but if I can answer them here.

I wrote of the value of 16.5 divided into the race length to get a
standard value, centred on 6 over all distances
The 16.5 is derived from the product of 6 (lengths per second) times
2.75 (the length standard for a horse here)
So that 1400 metres is 1400/16.5 = 84.84 seconds so that runners near
that figure or bettering it should be considered.

In effect the 600m time is all you need (to apply data to this method)
-all runners have the same value and you can correct that
For each runner using finish length times 2.75 minus race length
divided by 2.75 divided by 600m TIME. The query arose because
the inquirier was dividing by 600 metres, but it is the 600 metre time
that has been corrected.

The 600 metre time is useful because it eliminates the different
distances run by this runner and having to correct it to todays
distance.

It would be natural to modify the time/distance using new run distance
divided by old run distance times last run beaten lengths but that may
ramp up the prospects of
some horse in a fast run race.

Try using old score(lengths per second) divided by new score (lengths
per second) times the old beaten finish distance to give you a new
beaten distance. 
This correction is for those of us looking for precision. The same
amendment can be made using the finishing position(less one) as the
first part of the equation
And I am sure, but have not tested it over many races, that it will
still leave your good horse in contention, although ranked elsewhere,
so a second to a fourth ranking perhaps.
 Cheers

Tony
I did not snip on purpose
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert
Ford
Sent: Thursday, May 11, 2017 9:10 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Tony,


Hong Kong and Japan give body weights and sectionals which is
invaluable to calibrate any model..
In UK where handicaps dominate they refuse to provide that data.

Power production and power availability is determined from sectionals,
horse stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, the going at that
section (you now have some Turftrax maps in Oz), gradient, curve and
drafting. You can observe when the production peaks and falters.
The analysis can only be done by computer.

Bob Wilkins is from Manchester University in UK.
His analysis method is complex enough but misses out a lot of the
practical details and that available energy is not produced evenly. 
Some of this comes from the lack of pre-race warm up and some that
horse differ in how quickly in the race their energy production levels
rise. 
The even pace theories are not what happens in reality. We know it
does not happen at the start or finish but it is uneven in the middle
also.

I think it is more reliable for judging fitness visually by comparing
what things look like today as compared to the last two races.
Now we have wall to wall racing that has become impractical unless you
cut out 90% of racing.

Best wishes,
Robert



-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony
Moffat
Sent: 11 May 2017 05:42
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Robert.
Other racing jurisdictions do publicise horse bodyweight, the Asian
circuit is one.
They also have so much data to access as well.
If wagering drives racing, and it appears to in Asia and certainly
does here, then more data, including horse bodyweight should be made
available.
You mention power production and power availability, how is that
determined or calculated, or is it from time+distance?

I have read Bio - Energetics? Bob Wilkins(USA)-from the book" It
describes a scientific study of competitive running and develops a
mathematical model which balances  the energy supply from both
anaerobic and aerobic sources with the energy required to accelerate
the body, sustain running, and overcome air resistance. 
When applied to horse racing it allows the relationships between
distance, time, weight carried, going, and other factors, to be
evaluated. 
The model is applied to racing on turf in Britain, but it is easily
adapted to racing on other surfaces and tracks. 
The result of the model is a Power Equation, which can be used to
assess performance in a race in terms of a power rating.
 Two methods of assessing performance are examined in detail, based on
race time, or on collateral form.
Examples are given of the calculation of time ratings (speed ratings)
and form ratings.
 This book is not about "how to pick winners" or racing "systems". 
It is about the link between equine exercise physiology and racehorse
ratings.
 A basic under-standing of mathematics is required to follow the
development of the model.
 The uses of racehorse ratings are only briefly discussed, at the end
of the book.
 However, because racing and betting are inextricably linked, a short
cautionary note on betting is also included."

Some horseplayers state emphatically they can pick a fit horse on
sight.

I am aware of several instances where a horse was set for a race, two
fitness runs where it was flogged like a criminal then into the set
race where it failed, 6th.
It was beaten by a group with two horses who also targeted this race
and their plan worked. The horse that failed then won its next two as
favourite.
The bookmaker knew, he owned the horses. It was common knowledge in
the village that these horses would run well, they did too.

I later rated, using Plante and Scott techniques/methodology, the lead
up runs and the actual races and none of those runners were top
raters. 
I wrote about these incidents 36 years later and may post that exam on
Ausrace as it is topical.

Cheers

Tony

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert
Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 9, 2017 9:36 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Lindsay,

The other "unknown" with respect to weight is the horse body weight.
Some unfit horses may lose up to 20kg between races.
They may also put on more muscle and associated power production
between races.
They will then often have more power available but still race next
with a lower body weight.
If they are carrying less jockey and lead weight, then a further
advantage arises.
In UK, only the trainer and owner have direct access to that
knowledge, which can make a fool of the long odds based on  apparent
"form" when the "unfancied" horse races next.

Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race
Stats
Sent: 09 May 2017 13:43
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

"However, that fast aspect may occur elsewhere in the race, other than
in the final moments. I was looking at that score too. The 'midrace'
calculation almost gives the information we need."

Exactly Tony, in the USA they run flat out from the start in most
races, so the American time gurus came here and failed miserably.
The Melbourne Cup and The Cox Plate are two races that are generally
run at a faster pace than their other similar distance black type
races.

"In reality, I don't consider jockeys at all, in my regular punting
that is.
They are just a requirement within the rules of racing, provide the
handicap race weight and wear a  coloured shirt, and pull faces at the
crowd at the finish, then blame the barrier if they lose."

The barrier is an excuse, just like the pull in weights.
If the horse loses, it was the barrier or the pull in weights, yet so
many horses do win from bad barriers and carry top weight to win.
I've said it before, the way in which weight is allocated, hardly
makes a difference to a good horse's performance.
Len, was right when he said that riderless horses past the post first
if they run straight, so weight does matter.
However, a riderless horse may have a weight difference of 56 kgs to
every other runner!
When one looks at a difference of .50kgs up to 3kgs, the differences
are minimal.
Lindsay




_______________________________________________
Racing mailing list
Racing at ausrace.com
http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com


_______________________________________________
Racing mailing list
Racing at ausrace.com
http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com


---
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
http://www.avg.com


_______________________________________________
Racing mailing list
Racing at ausrace.com
http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com


_______________________________________________
Racing mailing list
Racing at ausrace.com
http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com




From kernow.fords at ntlworld.com  Tue May 16 21:56:28 2017
From: kernow.fords at ntlworld.com (Robert Ford)
Date: Tue, 16 May 2017 12:56:28 +0100
Subject: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
In-Reply-To: <000001d2ce03$7efc8db0$7cf5a910$@bigpond.com>
References: <000001d2c872$aa0ad7f0$fe2087d0$@bigpond.com>	<HKXPR02MB05989D34967D89D931DEC243BBEF0@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>	<001301d2c8c9$3b678f30$b236ad90$@ntlworld.com>	<000001d2ca10$de564950$9b02dbf0$@bigpond.com>	<00ef01d2ca57$dbf30cb0$93d92610$@ntlworld.com>
	<000001d2ce03$7efc8db0$7cf5a910$@bigpond.com>
Message-ID: <008601d2ce3b$73ae22b0$5b0a6810$@ntlworld.com>

Hi Tony,

There are no such books I am aware of - I derive new methods myself 
with inspiration from sport science blogs particularly athletics and
cycling.
Eg http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/cJKs
There are today more veterinary papers that deal with energy production,
lactates etc.
Tasmania provides stride length data.
So I have got bits and pieces from all over.

What did Biggs ""destroy" exactly - science?
Sports science is a different and all-encompassing world these days.

I introduced time lengths into UK where the camera time for each horse is
recorded as it passes the line.
An artificial lengths value is produced based entirely on race time
differences for those who still use horse lengths.
Horse lengths are so many 1/5ths of a second(they should be 1/6ths really
for flat racing).

In UK racing, races are not always won in the last two or last furlongs.
They are often lost in the first two furlongs.
If you have full race sectional data that becomes apparent but the last two
furlongs 
are probably OK as long as you bear in mind what happened the earlier
stages.

Best wishes,
Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: 16 May 2017 06:16
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Robert thanks
Can you suggest some texts/books which may explain this in full The horse
stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, gradient, curve all interest me
(and others I would hope)

Biggs, in Australia, destroyed the horse weight involvement argument, and
with that also the wind resistance and almost everything associated with the
horse running as it did.
 See Handicapping for 21 Century

I have been using the overall time and the final 660 metre times but realise
that the values can be attributed to different runners, Radish at the
600metres and Doofus at the end/ finish but it's a value now linked in form
here so it is meaningful.

It works if you visualise that the runners are static to the winner at the
moment of crossing the line, when the time is captured.

Again there were some queries off list but if I can answer them here.

I wrote of the value of 16.5 divided into the race length to get a standard
value, centred on 6 over all distances The 16.5 is derived from the product
of 6 (lengths per second) times
2.75 (the length standard for a horse here) So that 1400 metres is 1400/16.5
= 84.84 seconds so that runners near that figure or bettering it should be
considered.

In effect the 600m time is all you need (to apply data to this method) -all
runners have the same value and you can correct that For each runner using
finish length times 2.75 minus race length divided by 2.75 divided by 600m
TIME. The query arose because the inquirier was dividing by 600 metres, but
it is the 600 metre time that has been corrected.

The 600 metre time is useful because it eliminates the different distances
run by this runner and having to correct it to todays distance.

It would be natural to modify the time/distance using new run distance
divided by old run distance times last run beaten lengths but that may ramp
up the prospects of some horse in a fast run race.

Try using old score(lengths per second) divided by new score (lengths per
second) times the old beaten finish distance to give you a new beaten
distance. 
This correction is for those of us looking for precision. The same amendment
can be made using the finishing position(less one) as the first part of the
equation And I am sure, but have not tested it over many races, that it will
still leave your good horse in contention, although ranked elsewhere, so a
second to a fourth ranking perhaps.
 Cheers

Tony
I did not snip on purpose
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Thursday, May 11, 2017 9:10 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Tony,


Hong Kong and Japan give body weights and sectionals which is invaluable to
calibrate any model..
In UK where handicaps dominate they refuse to provide that data.

Power production and power availability is determined from sectionals, horse
stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, the going at that section (you
now have some Turftrax maps in Oz), gradient, curve and drafting. You can
observe when the production peaks and falters.
The analysis can only be done by computer.

Bob Wilkins is from Manchester University in UK.
His analysis method is complex enough but misses out a lot of the practical
details and that available energy is not produced evenly. 
Some of this comes from the lack of pre-race warm up and some that horse
differ in how quickly in the race their energy production levels rise. 
The even pace theories are not what happens in reality. We know it does not
happen at the start or finish but it is uneven in the middle also.

I think it is more reliable for judging fitness visually by comparing what
things look like today as compared to the last two races.
Now we have wall to wall racing that has become impractical unless you cut
out 90% of racing.

Best wishes,
Robert



-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: 11 May 2017 05:42
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Robert.
Other racing jurisdictions do publicise horse bodyweight, the Asian circuit
is one.
They also have so much data to access as well.
If wagering drives racing, and it appears to in Asia and certainly does
here, then more data, including horse bodyweight should be made available.
You mention power production and power availability, how is that determined
or calculated, or is it from time+distance?

I have read Bio - Energetics? Bob Wilkins(USA)-from the book" It describes a
scientific study of competitive running and develops a mathematical model
which balances  the energy supply from both anaerobic and aerobic sources
with the energy required to accelerate the body, sustain running, and
overcome air resistance. 
When applied to horse racing it allows the relationships between distance,
time, weight carried, going, and other factors, to be evaluated. 
The model is applied to racing on turf in Britain, but it is easily adapted
to racing on other surfaces and tracks. 
The result of the model is a Power Equation, which can be used to assess
performance in a race in terms of a power rating.
 Two methods of assessing performance are examined in detail, based on race
time, or on collateral form.
Examples are given of the calculation of time ratings (speed ratings) and
form ratings.
 This book is not about "how to pick winners" or racing "systems". 
It is about the link between equine exercise physiology and racehorse
ratings.
 A basic under-standing of mathematics is required to follow the development
of the model.
 The uses of racehorse ratings are only briefly discussed, at the end of the
book.
 However, because racing and betting are inextricably linked, a short
cautionary note on betting is also included."

Some horseplayers state emphatically they can pick a fit horse on sight.

I am aware of several instances where a horse was set for a race, two
fitness runs where it was flogged like a criminal then into the set race
where it failed, 6th.
It was beaten by a group with two horses who also targeted this race and
their plan worked. The horse that failed then won its next two as favourite.
The bookmaker knew, he owned the horses. It was common knowledge in the
village that these horses would run well, they did too.

I later rated, using Plante and Scott techniques/methodology, the lead up
runs and the actual races and none of those runners were top raters. 
I wrote about these incidents 36 years later and may post that exam on
Ausrace as it is topical.

Cheers

Tony

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 9, 2017 9:36 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Lindsay,

The other "unknown" with respect to weight is the horse body weight.
Some unfit horses may lose up to 20kg between races.
They may also put on more muscle and associated power production between
races.
They will then often have more power available but still race next with a
lower body weight.
If they are carrying less jockey and lead weight, then a further advantage
arises.
In UK, only the trainer and owner have direct access to that knowledge,
which can make a fool of the long odds based on  apparent "form" when the
"unfancied" horse races next.

Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race Stats
Sent: 09 May 2017 13:43
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

"However, that fast aspect may occur elsewhere in the race, other than in
the final moments. I was looking at that score too. The 'midrace'
calculation almost gives the information we need."

Exactly Tony, in the USA they run flat out from the start in most races, so
the American time gurus came here and failed miserably.
The Melbourne Cup and The Cox Plate are two races that are generally run at
a faster pace than their other similar distance black type races.

"In reality, I don't consider jockeys at all, in my regular punting that is.
They are just a requirement within the rules of racing, provide the handicap
race weight and wear a  coloured shirt, and pull faces at the crowd at the
finish, then blame the barrier if they lose."

The barrier is an excuse, just like the pull in weights.
If the horse loses, it was the barrier or the pull in weights, yet so many
horses do win from bad barriers and carry top weight to win.
I've said it before, the way in which weight is allocated, hardly makes a
difference to a good horse's performance.
Len, was right when he said that riderless horses past the post first if
they run straight, so weight does matter.
However, a riderless horse may have a weight difference of 56 kgs to every
other runner!
When one looks at a difference of .50kgs up to 3kgs, the differences are
minimal.
Lindsay




_______________________________________________
Racing mailing list
Racing at ausrace.com
http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com


_______________________________________________
Racing mailing list
Racing at ausrace.com
http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com


---
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
http://www.avg.com


_______________________________________________
Racing mailing list
Racing at ausrace.com
http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com


_______________________________________________
Racing mailing list
Racing at ausrace.com
http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com


_______________________________________________
Racing mailing list
Racing at ausrace.com
http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com




From tonymoffat at bigpond.com  Sat May 20 01:50:06 2017
From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat)
Date: Fri, 19 May 2017 23:50:06 +0800
Subject: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
In-Reply-To: <008601d2ce3b$73ae22b0$5b0a6810$@ntlworld.com>
References: <000001d2c872$aa0ad7f0$fe2087d0$@bigpond.com>	<HKXPR02MB05989D34967D89D931DEC243BBEF0@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>	<001301d2c8c9$3b678f30$b236ad90$@ntlworld.com>	<000001d2ca10$de564950$9b02dbf0$@bigpond.com>	<00ef01d2ca57$dbf30cb0$93d92610$@ntlworld.com>	<000001d2ce03$7efc8db0$7cf5a910$@bigpond.com>
	<008601d2ce3b$73ae22b0$5b0a6810$@ntlworld.com>
Message-ID: <000001d2d0b7$968951a0$c39bf4e0$@bigpond.com>

Roger Biggs, writing in Handicapping for 21 C examined the premise
that weight, time and distance are linked.

The equation he used is E = mass(m) * time(t) * speed(s) where
E = energy, mass = weight in kilos, time = time in seconds, speed =
speed in metres/second.
This is the energy balance equation. All of us saw this in science in
junior high school.

Another equation is KE= (mass/2) * speed * speed 

 From these he showed that the horse weight,
the several hundreds of kilograms, was inconsequential by any
comparison.

Using his equation he showed the effect of adding 1 kg to a 500 kg
horse(1.16), compared to a 600 kg horse(0.97)
slowed these by a value of .19 lengths, as a demonstration. 

By varying the weights of the horse, rider, gear between 500 and 600
kg
the variation was 0.19 lengths over 1600 metres.

Biggs used the standard 2.75 metres length also,  and you can use the
calculation formula to produce the answer in seconds, metres or
lengths.

This is the first time that the weight/lengths table has been verified
using the physics of the racetrack and the very first time that it has
been
confirmed that the effect of weight increases with distance and what
that true magnitude is

This is the early part of the several calculations involved in Speed
Handicapping, where times, barrier, jockey and other fundementals are
examined.

I sought permission from Roger Biggs, the author, and owner of the
text in his book to quote that which I  have written. Thank you Mr
Biggs. 

The book was written/published in 1998.

Newer, better, data is available in a more recent book, Handicapping
My Way, written by Roger Biggs and for sale on the RB Ratings site.
Thank you to John Hunter (RB Ratings) for his assistance with this
also.

Cheers

Tony
Again - I did not snip, the earlier posts may assist 
Off the scene for a few days now
 
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert
Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 16, 2017 7:56 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

There are no such books I am aware of - I derive new methods myself
with inspiration from sport science blogs particularly athletics and
cycling.
Eg http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/cJKs
There are today more veterinary papers that deal with energy
production, lactates etc.
Tasmania provides stride length data.
So I have got bits and pieces from all over.

What did Biggs ""destroy" exactly - science?
Sports science is a different and all-encompassing world these days.

I introduced time lengths into UK where the camera time for each horse
is recorded as it passes the line.
An artificial lengths value is produced based entirely on race time
differences for those who still use horse lengths.
Horse lengths are so many 1/5ths of a second(they should be 1/6ths
really for flat racing).

In UK racing, races are not always won in the last two or last
furlongs.
They are often lost in the first two furlongs.
If you have full race sectional data that becomes apparent but the
last two furlongs are probably OK as long as you bear in mind what
happened the earlier stages.

Best wishes,
Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony
Moffat
Sent: 16 May 2017 06:16
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Robert thanks
Can you suggest some texts/books which may explain this in full The
horse stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, gradient, curve all
interest me (and others I would hope)

Biggs, in Australia, destroyed the horse weight involvement argument,
and with that also the wind resistance and almost everything
associated with the horse running as it did.
 See Handicapping for 21 Century

I have been using the overall time and the final 660 metre times but
realise that the values can be attributed to different runners, Radish
at the 600metres and Doofus at the end/ finish but it's a value now
linked in form here so it is meaningful.

It works if you visualise that the runners are static to the winner at
the moment of crossing the line, when the time is captured.

Again there were some queries off list but if I can answer them here.

I wrote of the value of 16.5 divided into the race length to get a
standard value, centred on 6 over all distances The 16.5 is derived
from the product of 6 (lengths per second) times
2.75 (the length standard for a horse here) So that 1400 metres is
1400/16.5 = 84.84 seconds so that runners near that figure or
bettering it should be considered.

In effect the 600m time is all you need (to apply data to this method)
-all runners have the same value and you can correct that For each
runner using finish length times 2.75 minus race length divided by
2.75 divided by 600m TIME. The query arose because the inquirier was
dividing by 600 metres, but it is the 600 metre time that has been
corrected.

The 600 metre time is useful because it eliminates the different
distances run by this runner and having to correct it to todays
distance.

It would be natural to modify the time/distance using new run distance
divided by old run distance times last run beaten lengths but that may
ramp up the prospects of some horse in a fast run race.

Try using old score(lengths per second) divided by new score (lengths
per
second) times the old beaten finish distance to give you a new beaten
distance. 
This correction is for those of us looking for precision. The same
amendment can be made using the finishing position(less one) as the
first part of the equation And I am sure, but have not tested it over
many races, that it will still leave your good horse in contention,
although ranked elsewhere, so a second to a fourth ranking perhaps.
 Cheers

Tony
I did not snip on purpose
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert
Ford
Sent: Thursday, May 11, 2017 9:10 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Tony,


Hong Kong and Japan give body weights and sectionals which is
invaluable to calibrate any model..
In UK where handicaps dominate they refuse to provide that data.

Power production and power availability is determined from sectionals,
horse stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, the going at that
section (you now have some Turftrax maps in Oz), gradient, curve and
drafting. You can observe when the production peaks and falters.
The analysis can only be done by computer.

Bob Wilkins is from Manchester University in UK.
His analysis method is complex enough but misses out a lot of the
practical details and that available energy is not produced evenly. 
Some of this comes from the lack of pre-race warm up and some that
horse differ in how quickly in the race their energy production levels
rise. 
The even pace theories are not what happens in reality. We know it
does not happen at the start or finish but it is uneven in the middle
also.

I think it is more reliable for judging fitness visually by comparing
what things look like today as compared to the last two races.
Now we have wall to wall racing that has become impractical unless you
cut out 90% of racing.

Best wishes,
Robert



-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony
Moffat
Sent: 11 May 2017 05:42
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Robert.
Other racing jurisdictions do publicise horse bodyweight, the Asian
circuit is one.
They also have so much data to access as well.
If wagering drives racing, and it appears to in Asia and certainly
does here, then more data, including horse bodyweight should be made
available.
You mention power production and power availability, how is that
determined or calculated, or is it from time+distance?

I have read Bio - Energetics? Bob Wilkins(USA)-from the book" It
describes a scientific study of competitive running and develops a
mathematical model which balances  the energy supply from both
anaerobic and aerobic sources with the energy required to accelerate
the body, sustain running, and overcome air resistance. 
When applied to horse racing it allows the relationships between
distance, time, weight carried, going, and other factors, to be
evaluated. 
The model is applied to racing on turf in Britain, but it is easily
adapted to racing on other surfaces and tracks. 
The result of the model is a Power Equation, which can be used to
assess performance in a race in terms of a power rating.
 Two methods of assessing performance are examined in detail, based on
race time, or on collateral form.
Examples are given of the calculation of time ratings (speed ratings)
and form ratings.
 This book is not about "how to pick winners" or racing "systems". 
It is about the link between equine exercise physiology and racehorse
ratings.
 A basic under-standing of mathematics is required to follow the
development of the model.
 The uses of racehorse ratings are only briefly discussed, at the end
of the book.
 However, because racing and betting are inextricably linked, a short
cautionary note on betting is also included."

Some horseplayers state emphatically they can pick a fit horse on
sight.

I am aware of several instances where a horse was set for a race, two
fitness runs where it was flogged like a criminal then into the set
race where it failed, 6th.
It was beaten by a group with two horses who also targeted this race
and their plan worked. The horse that failed then won its next two as
favourite.
The bookmaker knew, he owned the horses. It was common knowledge in
the village that these horses would run well, they did too.

I later rated, using Plante and Scott techniques/methodology, the lead
up runs and the actual races and none of those runners were top
raters. 
I wrote about these incidents 36 years later and may post that exam on
Ausrace as it is topical.

Cheers

Tony

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert
Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 9, 2017 9:36 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Lindsay,

The other "unknown" with respect to weight is the horse body weight.
Some unfit horses may lose up to 20kg between races.
They may also put on more muscle and associated power production
between races.
They will then often have more power available but still race next
with a lower body weight.
If they are carrying less jockey and lead weight, then a further
advantage arises.
In UK, only the trainer and owner have direct access to that
knowledge, which can make a fool of the long odds based on  apparent
"form" when the "unfancied" horse races next.

Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race
Stats
Sent: 09 May 2017 13:43
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

"However, that fast aspect may occur elsewhere in the race, other than
in the final moments. I was looking at that score too. The 'midrace'
calculation almost gives the information we need."

Exactly Tony, in the USA they run flat out from the start in most
races, so the American time gurus came here and failed miserably.
The Melbourne Cup and The Cox Plate are two races that are generally
run at a faster pace than their other similar distance black type
races.

"In reality, I don't consider jockeys at all, in my regular punting
that is.
They are just a requirement within the rules of racing, provide the
handicap race weight and wear a  coloured shirt, and pull faces at the
crowd at the finish, then blame the barrier if they lose."

The barrier is an excuse, just like the pull in weights.
If the horse loses, it was the barrier or the pull in weights, yet so
many horses do win from bad barriers and carry top weight to win.
I've said it before, the way in which weight is allocated, hardly
makes a difference to a good horse's performance.
Len, was right when he said that riderless horses past the post first
if they run straight, so weight does matter.
However, a riderless horse may have a weight difference of 56 kgs to
every other runner!
When one looks at a difference of .50kgs up to 3kgs, the differences
are minimal.
Lindsay




_______________________________________________
Racing mailing list
Racing at ausrace.com
http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com


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http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com


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From kernow.fords at ntlworld.com  Sat May 20 02:26:11 2017
From: kernow.fords at ntlworld.com (Robert Ford)
Date: Fri, 19 May 2017 17:26:11 +0100
Subject: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
In-Reply-To: <000001d2d0b7$968951a0$c39bf4e0$@bigpond.com>
References: <000001d2c872$aa0ad7f0$fe2087d0$@bigpond.com>	<HKXPR02MB05989D34967D89D931DEC243BBEF0@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>	<001301d2c8c9$3b678f30$b236ad90$@ntlworld.com>	<000001d2ca10$de564950$9b02dbf0$@bigpond.com>	<00ef01d2ca57$dbf30cb0$93d92610$@ntlworld.com>	<000001d2ce03$7efc8db0$7cf5a910$@bigpond.com>	<008601d2ce3b$73ae22b0$5b0a6810$@ntlworld.com>
	<000001d2d0b7$968951a0$c39bf4e0$@bigpond.com>
Message-ID: <012201d2d0bc$a0b82f20$e2288d60$@ntlworld.com>

Hi Tony,

The first equation breaks down to M x D when speed is replaces by D/T. 
Energy expended is not mass x distance.

The second equation is correct for KE  but that is the energy of a body mass
M moving at a constant velocity V.
(like an imaginary train running on rails in a vacuum i.e. no energy losses,
100% efficiency).
KE increases linearly with the mass M - so if the body mass increase by 30Kg
the KE rises proportionately.
Racing results are often a matter of inches, and that increase alone can
certainly make a difference to the result.

A horse does not move at a constant velocity.
It is nowhere near  a 100% efficient machine.
A horse spends far more energy each stride in moving its legs, neck and head
and raising its body and the jockey each stride, 
Uses energy to pump blood from its heart and to expand its lungs, replaces
energy lost as hooves impact the ground and slip, expends energy against
gradients, curves and air resistance.
A horse does not produce energy at a constant rate - it builds up during the
race then falters at the finish.

A 500 kg horse produce power at roughly the cube of its body weight. 
So a 600 Kg horse produces nearly double (1.73 times) the power, for a 20%
increase in body weight.
A variation of 0.19 lengths over 1600 metres is clearly wrong.

Unless you take all the factors into account, you get the wrong answers.

Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: 19 May 2017 16:50
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Roger Biggs, writing in Handicapping for 21 C examined the premise that
weight, time and distance are linked.

The equation he used is E = mass(m) * time(t) * speed(s) where E = energy,
mass = weight in kilos, time = time in seconds, speed = speed in
metres/second.
This is the energy balance equation. All of us saw this in science in junior
high school.

Another equation is KE= (mass/2) * speed * speed 

 From these he showed that the horse weight, the several hundreds of
kilograms, was inconsequential by any comparison.

Using his equation he showed the effect of adding 1 kg to a 500 kg
horse(1.16), compared to a 600 kg horse(0.97) slowed these by a value of .19
lengths, as a demonstration. 

By varying the weights of the horse, rider, gear between 500 and 600 kg the
variation was 0.19 lengths over 1600 metres.

Biggs used the standard 2.75 metres length also,  and you can use the
calculation formula to produce the answer in seconds, metres or lengths.

This is the first time that the weight/lengths table has been verified using
the physics of the racetrack and the very first time that it has been
confirmed that the effect of weight increases with distance and what that
true magnitude is

This is the early part of the several calculations involved in Speed
Handicapping, where times, barrier, jockey and other fundementals are
examined.

I sought permission from Roger Biggs, the author, and owner of the text in
his book to quote that which I  have written. Thank you Mr Biggs. 

The book was written/published in 1998.

Newer, better, data is available in a more recent book, Handicapping My Way,
written by Roger Biggs and for sale on the RB Ratings site.
Thank you to John Hunter (RB Ratings) for his assistance with this also.

Cheers

Tony
Again - I did not snip, the earlier posts may assist Off the scene for a few
days now
 
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 16, 2017 7:56 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

There are no such books I am aware of - I derive new methods myself with
inspiration from sport science blogs particularly athletics and cycling.
Eg http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/cJKs
There are today more veterinary papers that deal with energy production,
lactates etc.
Tasmania provides stride length data.
So I have got bits and pieces from all over.

What did Biggs ""destroy" exactly - science?
Sports science is a different and all-encompassing world these days.

I introduced time lengths into UK where the camera time for each horse is
recorded as it passes the line.
An artificial lengths value is produced based entirely on race time
differences for those who still use horse lengths.
Horse lengths are so many 1/5ths of a second(they should be 1/6ths really
for flat racing).

In UK racing, races are not always won in the last two or last furlongs.
They are often lost in the first two furlongs.
If you have full race sectional data that becomes apparent but the last two
furlongs are probably OK as long as you bear in mind what happened the
earlier stages.

Best wishes,
Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: 16 May 2017 06:16
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Robert thanks
Can you suggest some texts/books which may explain this in full The horse
stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, gradient, curve all interest me
(and others I would hope)

Biggs, in Australia, destroyed the horse weight involvement argument, and
with that also the wind resistance and almost everything associated with the
horse running as it did.
 See Handicapping for 21 Century

I have been using the overall time and the final 660 metre times but realise
that the values can be attributed to different runners, Radish at the
600metres and Doofus at the end/ finish but it's a value now linked in form
here so it is meaningful.

It works if you visualise that the runners are static to the winner at the
moment of crossing the line, when the time is captured.

Again there were some queries off list but if I can answer them here.

I wrote of the value of 16.5 divided into the race length to get a standard
value, centred on 6 over all distances The 16.5 is derived from the product
of 6 (lengths per second) times
2.75 (the length standard for a horse here) So that 1400 metres is
1400/16.5 = 84.84 seconds so that runners near that figure or bettering it
should be considered.

In effect the 600m time is all you need (to apply data to this method) -all
runners have the same value and you can correct that For each runner using
finish length times 2.75 minus race length divided by
2.75 divided by 600m TIME. The query arose because the inquirier was
dividing by 600 metres, but it is the 600 metre time that has been
corrected.

The 600 metre time is useful because it eliminates the different distances
run by this runner and having to correct it to todays distance.

It would be natural to modify the time/distance using new run distance
divided by old run distance times last run beaten lengths but that may ramp
up the prospects of some horse in a fast run race.

Try using old score(lengths per second) divided by new score (lengths per
second) times the old beaten finish distance to give you a new beaten
distance. 
This correction is for those of us looking for precision. The same amendment
can be made using the finishing position(less one) as the first part of the
equation And I am sure, but have not tested it over many races, that it will
still leave your good horse in contention, although ranked elsewhere, so a
second to a fourth ranking perhaps.
 Cheers

Tony
I did not snip on purpose
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Thursday, May 11, 2017 9:10 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Tony,


Hong Kong and Japan give body weights and sectionals which is invaluable to
calibrate any model..
In UK where handicaps dominate they refuse to provide that data.

Power production and power availability is determined from sectionals, horse
stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, the going at that section (you
now have some Turftrax maps in Oz), gradient, curve and drafting. You can
observe when the production peaks and falters.
The analysis can only be done by computer.

Bob Wilkins is from Manchester University in UK.
His analysis method is complex enough but misses out a lot of the practical
details and that available energy is not produced evenly. 
Some of this comes from the lack of pre-race warm up and some that horse
differ in how quickly in the race their energy production levels rise. 
The even pace theories are not what happens in reality. We know it does not
happen at the start or finish but it is uneven in the middle also.

I think it is more reliable for judging fitness visually by comparing what
things look like today as compared to the last two races.
Now we have wall to wall racing that has become impractical unless you cut
out 90% of racing.

Best wishes,
Robert



-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: 11 May 2017 05:42
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Robert.
Other racing jurisdictions do publicise horse bodyweight, the Asian circuit
is one.
They also have so much data to access as well.
If wagering drives racing, and it appears to in Asia and certainly does
here, then more data, including horse bodyweight should be made available.
You mention power production and power availability, how is that determined
or calculated, or is it from time+distance?

I have read Bio - Energetics? Bob Wilkins(USA)-from the book" It describes a
scientific study of competitive running and develops a mathematical model
which balances  the energy supply from both anaerobic and aerobic sources
with the energy required to accelerate the body, sustain running, and
overcome air resistance. 
When applied to horse racing it allows the relationships between distance,
time, weight carried, going, and other factors, to be evaluated. 
The model is applied to racing on turf in Britain, but it is easily adapted
to racing on other surfaces and tracks. 
The result of the model is a Power Equation, which can be used to assess
performance in a race in terms of a power rating.
 Two methods of assessing performance are examined in detail, based on race
time, or on collateral form.
Examples are given of the calculation of time ratings (speed ratings) and
form ratings.
 This book is not about "how to pick winners" or racing "systems". 
It is about the link between equine exercise physiology and racehorse
ratings.
 A basic under-standing of mathematics is required to follow the development
of the model.
 The uses of racehorse ratings are only briefly discussed, at the end of the
book.
 However, because racing and betting are inextricably linked, a short
cautionary note on betting is also included."

Some horseplayers state emphatically they can pick a fit horse on sight.

I am aware of several instances where a horse was set for a race, two
fitness runs where it was flogged like a criminal then into the set race
where it failed, 6th.
It was beaten by a group with two horses who also targeted this race and
their plan worked. The horse that failed then won its next two as favourite.
The bookmaker knew, he owned the horses. It was common knowledge in the
village that these horses would run well, they did too.

I later rated, using Plante and Scott techniques/methodology, the lead up
runs and the actual races and none of those runners were top raters. 
I wrote about these incidents 36 years later and may post that exam on
Ausrace as it is topical.

Cheers

Tony

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 9, 2017 9:36 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Lindsay,

The other "unknown" with respect to weight is the horse body weight.
Some unfit horses may lose up to 20kg between races.
They may also put on more muscle and associated power production between
races.
They will then often have more power available but still race next with a
lower body weight.
If they are carrying less jockey and lead weight, then a further advantage
arises.
In UK, only the trainer and owner have direct access to that knowledge,
which can make a fool of the long odds based on  apparent "form" when the
"unfancied" horse races next.

Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race Stats
Sent: 09 May 2017 13:43
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

"However, that fast aspect may occur elsewhere in the race, other than in
the final moments. I was looking at that score too. The 'midrace'
calculation almost gives the information we need."

Exactly Tony, in the USA they run flat out from the start in most races, so
the American time gurus came here and failed miserably.
The Melbourne Cup and The Cox Plate are two races that are generally run at
a faster pace than their other similar distance black type races.

"In reality, I don't consider jockeys at all, in my regular punting that is.
They are just a requirement within the rules of racing, provide the handicap
race weight and wear a  coloured shirt, and pull faces at the crowd at the
finish, then blame the barrier if they lose."

The barrier is an excuse, just like the pull in weights.
If the horse loses, it was the barrier or the pull in weights, yet so many
horses do win from bad barriers and carry top weight to win.
I've said it before, the way in which weight is allocated, hardly makes a
difference to a good horse's performance.
Len, was right when he said that riderless horses past the post first if
they run straight, so weight does matter.
However, a riderless horse may have a weight difference of 56 kgs to every
other runner!
When one looks at a difference of .50kgs up to 3kgs, the differences are
minimal.
Lindsay




_______________________________________________
Racing mailing list
Racing at ausrace.com
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From RaceStats at hotmail.com  Sat May 20 08:43:47 2017
From: RaceStats at hotmail.com (Race Stats)
Date: Fri, 19 May 2017 22:43:47 +0000
Subject: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
In-Reply-To: <012201d2d0bc$a0b82f20$e2288d60$@ntlworld.com>
References: <000001d2c872$aa0ad7f0$fe2087d0$@bigpond.com>
	<HKXPR02MB05989D34967D89D931DEC243BBEF0@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>
	<001301d2c8c9$3b678f30$b236ad90$@ntlworld.com>
	<000001d2ca10$de564950$9b02dbf0$@bigpond.com>
	<00ef01d2ca57$dbf30cb0$93d92610$@ntlworld.com>
	<000001d2ce03$7efc8db0$7cf5a910$@bigpond.com>
	<008601d2ce3b$73ae22b0$5b0a6810$@ntlworld.com>
	<000001d2d0b7$968951a0$c39bf4e0$@bigpond.com>
	<012201d2d0bc$a0b82f20$e2288d60$@ntlworld.com>
Message-ID: <HKXPR02MB0598F1F8C1B1D7AFA744B093BBE50@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>

Hi Tony and Robert,
The mass of the horse is unknown except to the trainer and stable hands, so the equation is doomed at the very start.
One cannot use 2.75 metres for a horse, that horse would have to be 17 hands plus.
Again when trying to put it into an equation, you get out what you put in.
Horses are not fully grown until the age of 7.
So using 2.75 metres for a 2yo, 3yo or 4yo will be inaccurate.
Trainers do weigh their horses here, but it is not published anywhere I've seen.
Weight of the horse has another aspect to it, has it lost fat and gained muscle or has it just trained off?

"A 500 kg horse produce power at roughly the cube of its body weight. 
So a 600 Kg horse produces nearly double (1.73 times) the power, for a 20% increase in body weight."

Again this is a presumption of over thousands of different horses.
Body weight does not necessarily mean more power even if it's muscle because it depends on the size of the lungs, heart and throat.
I've literally been at autopsies of horses where the heart and lungs were bigger in the smaller horse.
One would need to know the size of the heart, lungs and muscles to put it into an equation, not just the overall mass, because one does not know what the mass consists of.
Is the mass mainly fluid, bone, stomach, intestine and fat???
I can't think of the name of the horse off hand , but there was a horse racing during the Spring Carnival nearly 18 hands, the commentators remarked on it and you could easily see the difference in the barriers, but it never even placed in all it's starts. 
Just my opinion, when working hands on with horses, forgive the pun :)
Lindsay.




-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Saturday, 20 May 2017 2:26 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

The first equation breaks down to M x D when speed is replaces by D/T. 
Energy expended is not mass x distance.

The second equation is correct for KE  but that is the energy of a body mass M moving at a constant velocity V.
(like an imaginary train running on rails in a vacuum i.e. no energy losses, 100% efficiency).
KE increases linearly with the mass M - so if the body mass increase by 30Kg the KE rises proportionately.
Racing results are often a matter of inches, and that increase alone can certainly make a difference to the result.

A horse does not move at a constant velocity.
It is nowhere near  a 100% efficient machine.
A horse spends far more energy each stride in moving its legs, neck and head and raising its body and the jockey each stride, Uses energy to pump blood from its heart and to expand its lungs, replaces energy lost as hooves impact the ground and slip, expends energy against gradients, curves and air resistance.
A horse does not produce energy at a constant rate - it builds up during the race then falters at the finish.

A 500 kg horse produce power at roughly the cube of its body weight. 
So a 600 Kg horse produces nearly double (1.73 times) the power, for a 20% increase in body weight.
A variation of 0.19 lengths over 1600 metres is clearly wrong.

Unless you take all the factors into account, you get the wrong answers.

Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: 19 May 2017 16:50
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Roger Biggs, writing in Handicapping for 21 C examined the premise that weight, time and distance are linked.

The equation he used is E = mass(m) * time(t) * speed(s) where E = energy, mass = weight in kilos, time = time in seconds, speed = speed in metres/second.
This is the energy balance equation. All of us saw this in science in junior high school.

Another equation is KE= (mass/2) * speed * speed 

 From these he showed that the horse weight, the several hundreds of kilograms, was inconsequential by any comparison.

Using his equation he showed the effect of adding 1 kg to a 500 kg horse(1.16), compared to a 600 kg horse(0.97) slowed these by a value of .19 lengths, as a demonstration. 

By varying the weights of the horse, rider, gear between 500 and 600 kg the variation was 0.19 lengths over 1600 metres.

Biggs used the standard 2.75 metres length also,  and you can use the calculation formula to produce the answer in seconds, metres or lengths.

This is the first time that the weight/lengths table has been verified using the physics of the racetrack and the very first time that it has been confirmed that the effect of weight increases with distance and what that true magnitude is

This is the early part of the several calculations involved in Speed Handicapping, where times, barrier, jockey and other fundementals are examined.

I sought permission from Roger Biggs, the author, and owner of the text in his book to quote that which I  have written. Thank you Mr Biggs. 

The book was written/published in 1998.

Newer, better, data is available in a more recent book, Handicapping My Way, written by Roger Biggs and for sale on the RB Ratings site.
Thank you to John Hunter (RB Ratings) for his assistance with this also.

Cheers

Tony
Again - I did not snip, the earlier posts may assist Off the scene for a few days now
 
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 16, 2017 7:56 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

There are no such books I am aware of - I derive new methods myself with inspiration from sport science blogs particularly athletics and cycling.
Eg http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/cJKs
There are today more veterinary papers that deal with energy production, lactates etc.
Tasmania provides stride length data.
So I have got bits and pieces from all over.

What did Biggs ""destroy" exactly - science?
Sports science is a different and all-encompassing world these days.

I introduced time lengths into UK where the camera time for each horse is recorded as it passes the line.
An artificial lengths value is produced based entirely on race time differences for those who still use horse lengths.
Horse lengths are so many 1/5ths of a second(they should be 1/6ths really for flat racing).

In UK racing, races are not always won in the last two or last furlongs.
They are often lost in the first two furlongs.
If you have full race sectional data that becomes apparent but the last two furlongs are probably OK as long as you bear in mind what happened the earlier stages.

Best wishes,
Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: 16 May 2017 06:16
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Robert thanks
Can you suggest some texts/books which may explain this in full The horse stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, gradient, curve all interest me (and others I would hope)

Biggs, in Australia, destroyed the horse weight involvement argument, and with that also the wind resistance and almost everything associated with the horse running as it did.
 See Handicapping for 21 Century

I have been using the overall time and the final 660 metre times but realise that the values can be attributed to different runners, Radish at the 600metres and Doofus at the end/ finish but it's a value now linked in form here so it is meaningful.

It works if you visualise that the runners are static to the winner at the moment of crossing the line, when the time is captured.

Again there were some queries off list but if I can answer them here.

I wrote of the value of 16.5 divided into the race length to get a standard value, centred on 6 over all distances The 16.5 is derived from the product of 6 (lengths per second) times
2.75 (the length standard for a horse here) So that 1400 metres is
1400/16.5 = 84.84 seconds so that runners near that figure or bettering it should be considered.

In effect the 600m time is all you need (to apply data to this method) -all runners have the same value and you can correct that For each runner using finish length times 2.75 minus race length divided by
2.75 divided by 600m TIME. The query arose because the inquirier was dividing by 600 metres, but it is the 600 metre time that has been corrected.

The 600 metre time is useful because it eliminates the different distances run by this runner and having to correct it to todays distance.

It would be natural to modify the time/distance using new run distance divided by old run distance times last run beaten lengths but that may ramp up the prospects of some horse in a fast run race.

Try using old score(lengths per second) divided by new score (lengths per
second) times the old beaten finish distance to give you a new beaten distance. 
This correction is for those of us looking for precision. The same amendment can be made using the finishing position(less one) as the first part of the equation And I am sure, but have not tested it over many races, that it will still leave your good horse in contention, although ranked elsewhere, so a second to a fourth ranking perhaps.
 Cheers

Tony
I did not snip on purpose
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Thursday, May 11, 2017 9:10 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Tony,


Hong Kong and Japan give body weights and sectionals which is invaluable to calibrate any model..
In UK where handicaps dominate they refuse to provide that data.

Power production and power availability is determined from sectionals, horse stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, the going at that section (you now have some Turftrax maps in Oz), gradient, curve and drafting. You can observe when the production peaks and falters.
The analysis can only be done by computer.

Bob Wilkins is from Manchester University in UK.
His analysis method is complex enough but misses out a lot of the practical details and that available energy is not produced evenly. 
Some of this comes from the lack of pre-race warm up and some that horse differ in how quickly in the race their energy production levels rise. 
The even pace theories are not what happens in reality. We know it does not happen at the start or finish but it is uneven in the middle also.

I think it is more reliable for judging fitness visually by comparing what things look like today as compared to the last two races.
Now we have wall to wall racing that has become impractical unless you cut out 90% of racing.

Best wishes,
Robert



-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: 11 May 2017 05:42
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Robert.
Other racing jurisdictions do publicise horse bodyweight, the Asian circuit is one.
They also have so much data to access as well.
If wagering drives racing, and it appears to in Asia and certainly does here, then more data, including horse bodyweight should be made available.
You mention power production and power availability, how is that determined or calculated, or is it from time+distance?

I have read Bio - Energetics? Bob Wilkins(USA)-from the book" It describes a scientific study of competitive running and develops a mathematical model which balances  the energy supply from both anaerobic and aerobic sources with the energy required to accelerate the body, sustain running, and overcome air resistance. 
When applied to horse racing it allows the relationships between distance, time, weight carried, going, and other factors, to be evaluated. 
The model is applied to racing on turf in Britain, but it is easily adapted to racing on other surfaces and tracks. 
The result of the model is a Power Equation, which can be used to assess performance in a race in terms of a power rating.
 Two methods of assessing performance are examined in detail, based on race time, or on collateral form.
Examples are given of the calculation of time ratings (speed ratings) and form ratings.
 This book is not about "how to pick winners" or racing "systems". 
It is about the link between equine exercise physiology and racehorse ratings.
 A basic under-standing of mathematics is required to follow the development of the model.
 The uses of racehorse ratings are only briefly discussed, at the end of the book.
 However, because racing and betting are inextricably linked, a short cautionary note on betting is also included."

Some horseplayers state emphatically they can pick a fit horse on sight.

I am aware of several instances where a horse was set for a race, two fitness runs where it was flogged like a criminal then into the set race where it failed, 6th.
It was beaten by a group with two horses who also targeted this race and their plan worked. The horse that failed then won its next two as favourite.
The bookmaker knew, he owned the horses. It was common knowledge in the village that these horses would run well, they did too.

I later rated, using Plante and Scott techniques/methodology, the lead up runs and the actual races and none of those runners were top raters. 
I wrote about these incidents 36 years later and may post that exam on Ausrace as it is topical.

Cheers

Tony

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 9, 2017 9:36 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Lindsay,

The other "unknown" with respect to weight is the horse body weight.
Some unfit horses may lose up to 20kg between races.
They may also put on more muscle and associated power production between races.
They will then often have more power available but still race next with a lower body weight.
If they are carrying less jockey and lead weight, then a further advantage arises.
In UK, only the trainer and owner have direct access to that knowledge, which can make a fool of the long odds based on  apparent "form" when the "unfancied" horse races next.

Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race Stats
Sent: 09 May 2017 13:43
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

"However, that fast aspect may occur elsewhere in the race, other than in the final moments. I was looking at that score too. The 'midrace'
calculation almost gives the information we need."

Exactly Tony, in the USA they run flat out from the start in most races, so the American time gurus came here and failed miserably.
The Melbourne Cup and The Cox Plate are two races that are generally run at a faster pace than their other similar distance black type races.

"In reality, I don't consider jockeys at all, in my regular punting that is.
They are just a requirement within the rules of racing, provide the handicap race weight and wear a  coloured shirt, and pull faces at the crowd at the finish, then blame the barrier if they lose."

The barrier is an excuse, just like the pull in weights.
If the horse loses, it was the barrier or the pull in weights, yet so many horses do win from bad barriers and carry top weight to win.
I've said it before, the way in which weight is allocated, hardly makes a difference to a good horse's performance.
Len, was right when he said that riderless horses past the post first if they run straight, so weight does matter.
However, a riderless horse may have a weight difference of 56 kgs to every other runner!
When one looks at a difference of .50kgs up to 3kgs, the differences are minimal.
Lindsay




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From tonymoffat at bigpond.com  Sat May 20 10:11:06 2017
From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat)
Date: Sat, 20 May 2017 08:11:06 +0800
Subject: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
In-Reply-To: <012201d2d0bc$a0b82f20$e2288d60$@ntlworld.com>
References: <000001d2c872$aa0ad7f0$fe2087d0$@bigpond.com>	<HKXPR02MB05989D34967D89D931DEC243BBEF0@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>	<001301d2c8c9$3b678f30$b236ad90$@ntlworld.com>	<000001d2ca10$de564950$9b02dbf0$@bigpond.com>	<00ef01d2ca57$dbf30cb0$93d92610$@ntlworld.com>	<000001d2ce03$7efc8db0$7cf5a910$@bigpond.com>	<008601d2ce3b$73ae22b0$5b0a6810$@ntlworld.com>	<000001d2d0b7$968951a0$c39bf4e0$@bigpond.com>
	<012201d2d0bc$a0b82f20$e2288d60$@ntlworld.com>
Message-ID: <000001d2d0fd$93a086c0$bae19440$@bigpond.com>

Robert - thanks

I don't feel I have done Biggs a dis service by relating his work. 
He published for the wider community to view it and has been an
educator for a while.
Do you have some figures, an equation, a table, some meat and potatoes
to also relate how
the animal produces movement and the effects on production. Can you
say what factors should be included?

There is a different equation which relates to kilowatts production by
the horse - that's interesting.

Cheers

Tony


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert
Ford
Sent: Saturday, May 20, 2017 12:26 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

The first equation breaks down to M x D when speed is replaces by D/T.

Energy expended is not mass x distance.

The second equation is correct for KE  but that is the energy of a
body mass M moving at a constant velocity V.
(like an imaginary train running on rails in a vacuum i.e. no energy
losses, 100% efficiency).
KE increases linearly with the mass M - so if the body mass increase
by 30Kg the KE rises proportionately.
Racing results are often a matter of inches, and that increase alone
can certainly make a difference to the result.

A horse does not move at a constant velocity.
It is nowhere near  a 100% efficient machine.
A horse spends far more energy each stride in moving its legs, neck
and head and raising its body and the jockey each stride, Uses energy
to pump blood from its heart and to expand its lungs, replaces energy
lost as hooves impact the ground and slip, expends energy against
gradients, curves and air resistance.
A horse does not produce energy at a constant rate - it builds up
during the race then falters at the finish.

A 500 kg horse produce power at roughly the cube of its body weight. 
So a 600 Kg horse produces nearly double (1.73 times) the power, for a
20% increase in body weight.
A variation of 0.19 lengths over 1600 metres is clearly wrong.

Unless you take all the factors into account, you get the wrong
answers.

Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony
Moffat
Sent: 19 May 2017 16:50
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Roger Biggs, writing in Handicapping for 21 C examined the premise
that weight, time and distance are linked.

The equation he used is E = mass(m) * time(t) * speed(s) where E =
energy, mass = weight in kilos, time = time in seconds, speed = speed
in metres/second.
This is the energy balance equation. All of us saw this in science in
junior high school.

Another equation is KE= (mass/2) * speed * speed 

 From these he showed that the horse weight, the several hundreds of
kilograms, was inconsequential by any comparison.

Using his equation he showed the effect of adding 1 kg to a 500 kg
horse(1.16), compared to a 600 kg horse(0.97) slowed these by a value
of .19 lengths, as a demonstration. 

By varying the weights of the horse, rider, gear between 500 and 600
kg the variation was 0.19 lengths over 1600 metres.

Biggs used the standard 2.75 metres length also,  and you can use the
calculation formula to produce the answer in seconds, metres or
lengths.

This is the first time that the weight/lengths table has been verified
using the physics of the racetrack and the very first time that it has
been confirmed that the effect of weight increases with distance and
what that true magnitude is

This is the early part of the several calculations involved in Speed
Handicapping, where times, barrier, jockey and other fundementals are
examined.

I sought permission from Roger Biggs, the author, and owner of the
text in his book to quote that which I  have written. Thank you Mr
Biggs. 

The book was written/published in 1998.

Newer, better, data is available in a more recent book, Handicapping
My Way, written by Roger Biggs and for sale on the RB Ratings site.
Thank you to John Hunter (RB Ratings) for his assistance with this
also.

Cheers

Tony
Again - I did not snip, the earlier posts may assist Off the scene for
a few days now
 
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert
Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 16, 2017 7:56 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

There are no such books I am aware of - I derive new methods myself
with inspiration from sport science blogs particularly athletics and
cycling.
Eg http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/cJKs
There are today more veterinary papers that deal with energy
production, lactates etc.
Tasmania provides stride length data.
So I have got bits and pieces from all over.

What did Biggs ""destroy" exactly - science?
Sports science is a different and all-encompassing world these days.

I introduced time lengths into UK where the camera time for each horse
is recorded as it passes the line.
An artificial lengths value is produced based entirely on race time
differences for those who still use horse lengths.
Horse lengths are so many 1/5ths of a second(they should be 1/6ths
really for flat racing).

In UK racing, races are not always won in the last two or last
furlongs.
They are often lost in the first two furlongs.
If you have full race sectional data that becomes apparent but the
last two furlongs are probably OK as long as you bear in mind what
happened the earlier stages.

Best wishes,
Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony
Moffat
Sent: 16 May 2017 06:16
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Robert thanks
Can you suggest some texts/books which may explain this in full The
horse stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, gradient, curve all
interest me (and others I would hope)

Biggs, in Australia, destroyed the horse weight involvement argument,
and with that also the wind resistance and almost everything
associated with the horse running as it did.
 See Handicapping for 21 Century

I have been using the overall time and the final 660 metre times but
realise that the values can be attributed to different runners, Radish
at the 600metres and Doofus at the end/ finish but it's a value now
linked in form here so it is meaningful.

It works if you visualise that the runners are static to the winner at
the moment of crossing the line, when the time is captured.

Again there were some queries off list but if I can answer them here.

I wrote of the value of 16.5 divided into the race length to get a
standard value, centred on 6 over all distances The 16.5 is derived
from the product of 6 (lengths per second) times
2.75 (the length standard for a horse here) So that 1400 metres is
1400/16.5 = 84.84 seconds so that runners near that figure or
bettering it should be considered.

In effect the 600m time is all you need (to apply data to this method)
-all runners have the same value and you can correct that For each
runner using finish length times 2.75 minus race length divided by
2.75 divided by 600m TIME. The query arose because the inquirier was
dividing by 600 metres, but it is the 600 metre time that has been
corrected.

The 600 metre time is useful because it eliminates the different
distances run by this runner and having to correct it to todays
distance.

It would be natural to modify the time/distance using new run distance
divided by old run distance times last run beaten lengths but that may
ramp up the prospects of some horse in a fast run race.

Try using old score(lengths per second) divided by new score (lengths
per
second) times the old beaten finish distance to give you a new beaten
distance. 
This correction is for those of us looking for precision. The same
amendment can be made using the finishing position(less one) as the
first part of the equation And I am sure, but have not tested it over
many races, that it will still leave your good horse in contention,
although ranked elsewhere, so a second to a fourth ranking perhaps.
 Cheers

Tony
I did not snip on purpose
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert
Ford
Sent: Thursday, May 11, 2017 9:10 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Tony,


Hong Kong and Japan give body weights and sectionals which is
invaluable to calibrate any model..
In UK where handicaps dominate they refuse to provide that data.

Power production and power availability is determined from sectionals,
horse stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, the going at that
section (you now have some Turftrax maps in Oz), gradient, curve and
drafting. You can observe when the production peaks and falters.
The analysis can only be done by computer.

Bob Wilkins is from Manchester University in UK.
His analysis method is complex enough but misses out a lot of the
practical details and that available energy is not produced evenly. 
Some of this comes from the lack of pre-race warm up and some that
horse differ in how quickly in the race their energy production levels
rise. 
The even pace theories are not what happens in reality. We know it
does not happen at the start or finish but it is uneven in the middle
also.

I think it is more reliable for judging fitness visually by comparing
what things look like today as compared to the last two races.
Now we have wall to wall racing that has become impractical unless you
cut out 90% of racing.

Best wishes,
Robert



-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony
Moffat
Sent: 11 May 2017 05:42
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Robert.
Other racing jurisdictions do publicise horse bodyweight, the Asian
circuit is one.
They also have so much data to access as well.
If wagering drives racing, and it appears to in Asia and certainly
does here, then more data, including horse bodyweight should be made
available.
You mention power production and power availability, how is that
determined or calculated, or is it from time+distance?

I have read Bio - Energetics? Bob Wilkins(USA)-from the book" It
describes a scientific study of competitive running and develops a
mathematical model which balances  the energy supply from both
anaerobic and aerobic sources with the energy required to accelerate
the body, sustain running, and overcome air resistance. 
When applied to horse racing it allows the relationships between
distance, time, weight carried, going, and other factors, to be
evaluated. 
The model is applied to racing on turf in Britain, but it is easily
adapted to racing on other surfaces and tracks. 
The result of the model is a Power Equation, which can be used to
assess performance in a race in terms of a power rating.
 Two methods of assessing performance are examined in detail, based on
race time, or on collateral form.
Examples are given of the calculation of time ratings (speed ratings)
and form ratings.
 This book is not about "how to pick winners" or racing "systems". 
It is about the link between equine exercise physiology and racehorse
ratings.
 A basic under-standing of mathematics is required to follow the
development of the model.
 The uses of racehorse ratings are only briefly discussed, at the end
of the book.
 However, because racing and betting are inextricably linked, a short
cautionary note on betting is also included."

Some horseplayers state emphatically they can pick a fit horse on
sight.

I am aware of several instances where a horse was set for a race, two
fitness runs where it was flogged like a criminal then into the set
race where it failed, 6th.
It was beaten by a group with two horses who also targeted this race
and their plan worked. The horse that failed then won its next two as
favourite.
The bookmaker knew, he owned the horses. It was common knowledge in
the village that these horses would run well, they did too.

I later rated, using Plante and Scott techniques/methodology, the lead
up runs and the actual races and none of those runners were top
raters. 
I wrote about these incidents 36 years later and may post that exam on
Ausrace as it is topical.

Cheers

Tony

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert
Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 9, 2017 9:36 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Lindsay,

The other "unknown" with respect to weight is the horse body weight.
Some unfit horses may lose up to 20kg between races.
They may also put on more muscle and associated power production
between races.
They will then often have more power available but still race next
with a lower body weight.
If they are carrying less jockey and lead weight, then a further
advantage arises.
In UK, only the trainer and owner have direct access to that
knowledge, which can make a fool of the long odds based on  apparent
"form" when the "unfancied" horse races next.

Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race
Stats
Sent: 09 May 2017 13:43
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

"However, that fast aspect may occur elsewhere in the race, other than
in the final moments. I was looking at that score too. The 'midrace'
calculation almost gives the information we need."

Exactly Tony, in the USA they run flat out from the start in most
races, so the American time gurus came here and failed miserably.
The Melbourne Cup and The Cox Plate are two races that are generally
run at a faster pace than their other similar distance black type
races.

"In reality, I don't consider jockeys at all, in my regular punting
that is.
They are just a requirement within the rules of racing, provide the
handicap race weight and wear a  coloured shirt, and pull faces at the
crowd at the finish, then blame the barrier if they lose."

The barrier is an excuse, just like the pull in weights.
If the horse loses, it was the barrier or the pull in weights, yet so
many horses do win from bad barriers and carry top weight to win.
I've said it before, the way in which weight is allocated, hardly
makes a difference to a good horse's performance.
Len, was right when he said that riderless horses past the post first
if they run straight, so weight does matter.
However, a riderless horse may have a weight difference of 56 kgs to
every other runner!
When one looks at a difference of .50kgs up to 3kgs, the differences
are minimal.
Lindsay




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From tonymoffat at bigpond.com  Sun May 21 21:11:22 2017
From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat)
Date: Sun, 21 May 2017 19:11:22 +0800
Subject: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
In-Reply-To: <HKXPR02MB0598F1F8C1B1D7AFA744B093BBE50@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>
References: <000001d2c872$aa0ad7f0$fe2087d0$@bigpond.com>	<HKXPR02MB05989D34967D89D931DEC243BBEF0@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>	<001301d2c8c9$3b678f30$b236ad90$@ntlworld.com>	<000001d2ca10$de564950$9b02dbf0$@bigpond.com>	<00ef01d2ca57$dbf30cb0$93d92610$@ntlworld.com>	<000001d2ce03$7efc8db0$7cf5a910$@bigpond.com>	<008601d2ce3b$73ae22b0$5b0a6810$@ntlworld.com>	<000001d2d0b7$968951a0$c39bf4e0$@bigpond.com>	<012201d2d0bc$a0b82f20$e2288d60$@ntlworld.com>
	<HKXPR02MB0598F1F8C1B1D7AFA744B093BBE50@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>
Message-ID: <000201d2d222$fb0e8700$f12b9500$@bigpond.com>

Lindsay - I am presuming that the result industry has determined the
horse length to be 2.75 metres.

ok, I have only asked two involvees but, yes, 2.75m is what they use
when deciding their results
and their results are time based.

The finishing value of the winner, its pace, is determined then
the electronic gizmos each carries trips the clock as they cross the
line and their distance from the winner
is calculated from that information. 

The electronic device is carried in a pocket on the saddlecloth (in
Vic)
so by extrapolation the horse may be really long, perhaps half a body
length, using its electronic fingerprint. 

There is a further elongation caused by rounding the time value. 

Form students use the horse finishing position as lengths lost. So
6/15 means the horse
finished 5 lengths from the winner within their calculation -
importantly it finished 9 lengths from last
an interesting value that Henk Jnr swears by. He does not use the 2.75
metre value, just lengths lost, there is no value to them other than
the number.

Assigning a time value then a length value to each runner from the
endeavours of another seems strange.
There does not appear to be an attempt to record the true time value
of runners - problem solved.

Cheers

Tony

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race
Stats
Sent: Saturday, May 20, 2017 6:44 AM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony and Robert,
The mass of the horse is unknown except to the trainer and stable
hands, so the equation is doomed at the very start.
One cannot use 2.75 metres for a horse, that horse would have to be 17
hands plus.
Again when trying to put it into an equation, you get out what you put
in.
Horses are not fully grown until the age of 7.
So using 2.75 metres for a 2yo, 3yo or 4yo will be inaccurate.
Trainers do weigh their horses here, but it is not published anywhere
I've seen.
Weight of the horse has another aspect to it, has it lost fat and
gained muscle or has it just trained off?

"A 500 kg horse produce power at roughly the cube of its body weight. 
So a 600 Kg horse produces nearly double (1.73 times) the power, for a
20% increase in body weight."

Again this is a presumption of over thousands of different horses.
Body weight does not necessarily mean more power even if it's muscle
because it depends on the size of the lungs, heart and throat.
I've literally been at autopsies of horses where the heart and lungs
were bigger in the smaller horse.
One would need to know the size of the heart, lungs and muscles to put
it into an equation, not just the overall mass, because one does not
know what the mass consists of.
Is the mass mainly fluid, bone, stomach, intestine and fat???
I can't think of the name of the horse off hand , but there was a
horse racing during the Spring Carnival nearly 18 hands, the
commentators remarked on it and you could easily see the difference in
the barriers, but it never even placed in all it's starts. 
Just my opinion, when working hands on with horses, forgive the pun :)
Lindsay.




-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert
Ford
Sent: Saturday, 20 May 2017 2:26 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

The first equation breaks down to M x D when speed is replaces by D/T.

Energy expended is not mass x distance.

The second equation is correct for KE  but that is the energy of a
body mass M moving at a constant velocity V.
(like an imaginary train running on rails in a vacuum i.e. no energy
losses, 100% efficiency).
KE increases linearly with the mass M - so if the body mass increase
by 30Kg the KE rises proportionately.
Racing results are often a matter of inches, and that increase alone
can certainly make a difference to the result.

A horse does not move at a constant velocity.
It is nowhere near  a 100% efficient machine.
A horse spends far more energy each stride in moving its legs, neck
and head and raising its body and the jockey each stride, Uses energy
to pump blood from its heart and to expand its lungs, replaces energy
lost as hooves impact the ground and slip, expends energy against
gradients, curves and air resistance.
A horse does not produce energy at a constant rate - it builds up
during the race then falters at the finish.

A 500 kg horse produce power at roughly the cube of its body weight. 
So a 600 Kg horse produces nearly double (1.73 times) the power, for a
20% increase in body weight.
A variation of 0.19 lengths over 1600 metres is clearly wrong.

Unless you take all the factors into account, you get the wrong
answers.

Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony
Moffat
Sent: 19 May 2017 16:50
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Roger Biggs, writing in Handicapping for 21 C examined the premise
that weight, time and distance are linked.

The equation he used is E = mass(m) * time(t) * speed(s) where E =
energy, mass = weight in kilos, time = time in seconds, speed = speed
in metres/second.
This is the energy balance equation. All of us saw this in science in
junior high school.

Another equation is KE= (mass/2) * speed * speed 

 From these he showed that the horse weight, the several hundreds of
kilograms, was inconsequential by any comparison.

Using his equation he showed the effect of adding 1 kg to a 500 kg
horse(1.16), compared to a 600 kg horse(0.97) slowed these by a value
of .19 lengths, as a demonstration. 

By varying the weights of the horse, rider, gear between 500 and 600
kg the variation was 0.19 lengths over 1600 metres.

Biggs used the standard 2.75 metres length also,  and you can use the
calculation formula to produce the answer in seconds, metres or
lengths.

This is the first time that the weight/lengths table has been verified
using the physics of the racetrack and the very first time that it has
been confirmed that the effect of weight increases with distance and
what that true magnitude is

This is the early part of the several calculations involved in Speed
Handicapping, where times, barrier, jockey and other fundementals are
examined.

I sought permission from Roger Biggs, the author, and owner of the
text in his book to quote that which I  have written. Thank you Mr
Biggs. 

The book was written/published in 1998.

Newer, better, data is available in a more recent book, Handicapping
My Way, written by Roger Biggs and for sale on the RB Ratings site.
Thank you to John Hunter (RB Ratings) for his assistance with this
also.

Cheers

Tony
Again - I did not snip, the earlier posts may assist Off the scene for
a few days now
 
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert
Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 16, 2017 7:56 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

There are no such books I am aware of - I derive new methods myself
with inspiration from sport science blogs particularly athletics and
cycling.
Eg http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/cJKs
There are today more veterinary papers that deal with energy
production, lactates etc.
Tasmania provides stride length data.
So I have got bits and pieces from all over.

What did Biggs ""destroy" exactly - science?
Sports science is a different and all-encompassing world these days.

I introduced time lengths into UK where the camera time for each horse
is recorded as it passes the line.
An artificial lengths value is produced based entirely on race time
differences for those who still use horse lengths.
Horse lengths are so many 1/5ths of a second(they should be 1/6ths
really for flat racing).

In UK racing, races are not always won in the last two or last
furlongs.
They are often lost in the first two furlongs.
If you have full race sectional data that becomes apparent but the
last two furlongs are probably OK as long as you bear in mind what
happened the earlier stages.

Best wishes,
Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony
Moffat
Sent: 16 May 2017 06:16
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Robert thanks
Can you suggest some texts/books which may explain this in full The
horse stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, gradient, curve all
interest me (and others I would hope)

Biggs, in Australia, destroyed the horse weight involvement argument,
and with that also the wind resistance and almost everything
associated with the horse running as it did.
 See Handicapping for 21 Century

I have been using the overall time and the final 660 metre times but
realise that the values can be attributed to different runners, Radish
at the 600metres and Doofus at the end/ finish but it's a value now
linked in form here so it is meaningful.

It works if you visualise that the runners are static to the winner at
the moment of crossing the line, when the time is captured.

Again there were some queries off list but if I can answer them here.

I wrote of the value of 16.5 divided into the race length to get a
standard value, centred on 6 over all distances The 16.5 is derived
from the product of 6 (lengths per second) times
2.75 (the length standard for a horse here) So that 1400 metres is
1400/16.5 = 84.84 seconds so that runners near that figure or
bettering it should be considered.

In effect the 600m time is all you need (to apply data to this method)
-all runners have the same value and you can correct that For each
runner using finish length times 2.75 minus race length divided by
2.75 divided by 600m TIME. The query arose because the inquirier was
dividing by 600 metres, but it is the 600 metre time that has been
corrected.

The 600 metre time is useful because it eliminates the different
distances run by this runner and having to correct it to todays
distance.

It would be natural to modify the time/distance using new run distance
divided by old run distance times last run beaten lengths but that may
ramp up the prospects of some horse in a fast run race.

Try using old score(lengths per second) divided by new score (lengths
per
second) times the old beaten finish distance to give you a new beaten
distance. 
This correction is for those of us looking for precision. The same
amendment can be made using the finishing position(less one) as the
first part of the equation And I am sure, but have not tested it over
many races, that it will still leave your good horse in contention,
although ranked elsewhere, so a second to a fourth ranking perhaps.
 Cheers

Tony
I did not snip on purpose
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert
Ford
Sent: Thursday, May 11, 2017 9:10 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Tony,


Hong Kong and Japan give body weights and sectionals which is
invaluable to calibrate any model..
In UK where handicaps dominate they refuse to provide that data.

Power production and power availability is determined from sectionals,
horse stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, the going at that
section (you now have some Turftrax maps in Oz), gradient, curve and
drafting. You can observe when the production peaks and falters.
The analysis can only be done by computer.

Bob Wilkins is from Manchester University in UK.
His analysis method is complex enough but misses out a lot of the
practical details and that available energy is not produced evenly. 
Some of this comes from the lack of pre-race warm up and some that
horse differ in how quickly in the race their energy production levels
rise. 
The even pace theories are not what happens in reality. We know it
does not happen at the start or finish but it is uneven in the middle
also.

I think it is more reliable for judging fitness visually by comparing
what things look like today as compared to the last two races.
Now we have wall to wall racing that has become impractical unless you
cut out 90% of racing.

Best wishes,
Robert



-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony
Moffat
Sent: 11 May 2017 05:42
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Robert.
Other racing jurisdictions do publicise horse bodyweight, the Asian
circuit is one.
They also have so much data to access as well.
If wagering drives racing, and it appears to in Asia and certainly
does here, then more data, including horse bodyweight should be made
available.
You mention power production and power availability, how is that
determined or calculated, or is it from time+distance?

I have read Bio - Energetics? Bob Wilkins(USA)-from the book" It
describes a scientific study of competitive running and develops a
mathematical model which balances  the energy supply from both
anaerobic and aerobic sources with the energy required to accelerate
the body, sustain running, and overcome air resistance. 
When applied to horse racing it allows the relationships between
distance, time, weight carried, going, and other factors, to be
evaluated. 
The model is applied to racing on turf in Britain, but it is easily
adapted to racing on other surfaces and tracks. 
The result of the model is a Power Equation, which can be used to
assess performance in a race in terms of a power rating.
 Two methods of assessing performance are examined in detail, based on
race time, or on collateral form.
Examples are given of the calculation of time ratings (speed ratings)
and form ratings.
 This book is not about "how to pick winners" or racing "systems". 
It is about the link between equine exercise physiology and racehorse
ratings.
 A basic under-standing of mathematics is required to follow the
development of the model.
 The uses of racehorse ratings are only briefly discussed, at the end
of the book.
 However, because racing and betting are inextricably linked, a short
cautionary note on betting is also included."

Some horseplayers state emphatically they can pick a fit horse on
sight.

I am aware of several instances where a horse was set for a race, two
fitness runs where it was flogged like a criminal then into the set
race where it failed, 6th.
It was beaten by a group with two horses who also targeted this race
and their plan worked. The horse that failed then won its next two as
favourite.
The bookmaker knew, he owned the horses. It was common knowledge in
the village that these horses would run well, they did too.

I later rated, using Plante and Scott techniques/methodology, the lead
up runs and the actual races and none of those runners were top
raters. 
I wrote about these incidents 36 years later and may post that exam on
Ausrace as it is topical.

Cheers

Tony

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert
Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 9, 2017 9:36 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Lindsay,

The other "unknown" with respect to weight is the horse body weight.
Some unfit horses may lose up to 20kg between races.
They may also put on more muscle and associated power production
between races.
They will then often have more power available but still race next
with a lower body weight.
If they are carrying less jockey and lead weight, then a further
advantage arises.
In UK, only the trainer and owner have direct access to that
knowledge, which can make a fool of the long odds based on  apparent
"form" when the "unfancied" horse races next.

Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race
Stats
Sent: 09 May 2017 13:43
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

"However, that fast aspect may occur elsewhere in the race, other than
in the final moments. I was looking at that score too. The 'midrace'
calculation almost gives the information we need."

Exactly Tony, in the USA they run flat out from the start in most
races, so the American time gurus came here and failed miserably.
The Melbourne Cup and The Cox Plate are two races that are generally
run at a faster pace than their other similar distance black type
races.

"In reality, I don't consider jockeys at all, in my regular punting
that is.
They are just a requirement within the rules of racing, provide the
handicap race weight and wear a  coloured shirt, and pull faces at the
crowd at the finish, then blame the barrier if they lose."

The barrier is an excuse, just like the pull in weights.
If the horse loses, it was the barrier or the pull in weights, yet so
many horses do win from bad barriers and carry top weight to win.
I've said it before, the way in which weight is allocated, hardly
makes a difference to a good horse's performance.
Len, was right when he said that riderless horses past the post first
if they run straight, so weight does matter.
However, a riderless horse may have a weight difference of 56 kgs to
every other runner!
When one looks at a difference of .50kgs up to 3kgs, the differences
are minimal.
Lindsay




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From kernow.fords at ntlworld.com  Sun May 21 23:44:45 2017
From: kernow.fords at ntlworld.com (Robert Ford)
Date: Sun, 21 May 2017 14:44:45 +0100
Subject: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
In-Reply-To: <000201d2d222$fb0e8700$f12b9500$@bigpond.com>
References: <000001d2c872$aa0ad7f0$fe2087d0$@bigpond.com>	<HKXPR02MB05989D34967D89D931DEC243BBEF0@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>	<001301d2c8c9$3b678f30$b236ad90$@ntlworld.com>	<000001d2ca10$de564950$9b02dbf0$@bigpond.com>	<00ef01d2ca57$dbf30cb0$93d92610$@ntlworld.com>	<000001d2ce03$7efc8db0$7cf5a910$@bigpond.com>	<008601d2ce3b$73ae22b0$5b0a6810$@ntlworld.com>	<000001d2d0b7$968951a0$c39bf4e0$@bigpond.com>	<012201d2d0bc$a0b82f20$e2288d60$@ntlworld.com>	<HKXPR02MB0598F1F8C1B1D7AFA744B093BBE50@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>
	<000201d2d222$fb0e8700$f12b9500$@bigpond.com>
Message-ID: <003f01d2d238$6867cb80$39376280$@ntlworld.com>



Hi Lindsay,

The mass of a horse is as you say known to the trainers and the public in
Hong Kong and Japan.
Why do you think the connections of a trainer or punters in HK etc cannot
use that information?

The length of a horse is not defined in any racing jurisdiction.
An average is about 8.4 feet from established sires. (2.75m is 9.1 feet).
The frame size of a horse is fully grown at about 3-4 years. Growth change
of components may go on until 5 years.
I explained earlier that the length of a horse is irrelevant to punting if
time -lengths are used.

You are correct that weight changes can be good or bad as far as performance
is concerned.
The problem is that joe-public can only judge (guess) that at the track but
the trainer has the full information at time of entry.

Roughly does mean roughly. 
Each horse varies in what it can do with what nature has provided.
If you have more precise information then it is used - if no extra
information, then averages are used.

Again the makeup of heart , lungs etc varies enormously.
The point I was making is that if you simply ignore the energy production
and requirements of all that which goes together to produce a performance,
you get the wrong answers.
What you can do is use what information you do have when you have it. All
components gets boiled down into how the horse has performed 
on the track so the individual contributions add up to a performance -
exactly how is not so important as the performance.
However for a given horse all the components are more or less fixed - the
big variable race to race is the horse body weight.
Boxing fights give that key information.
Racehorse trainers know it is key information.
And that is why it is so important and is wrong that punters do not get that
information as a given.

Robert



-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race Stats
Sent: Saturday, May 20, 2017 6:44 AM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony and Robert,
The mass of the horse is unknown except to the trainer and stable hands, so
the equation is doomed at the very start.
One cannot use 2.75 metres for a horse, that horse would have to be 17 hands
plus.
Again when trying to put it into an equation, you get out what you put in.
Horses are not fully grown until the age of 7.
So using 2.75 metres for a 2yo, 3yo or 4yo will be inaccurate.
Trainers do weigh their horses here, but it is not published anywhere I've
seen.
Weight of the horse has another aspect to it, has it lost fat and gained
muscle or has it just trained off?

"A 500 kg horse produce power at roughly the cube of its body weight. 
So a 600 Kg horse produces nearly double (1.73 times) the power, for a 20%
increase in body weight."

Again this is a presumption of over thousands of different horses.
Body weight does not necessarily mean more power even if it's muscle because
it depends on the size of the lungs, heart and throat.
I've literally been at autopsies of horses where the heart and lungs were
bigger in the smaller horse.
One would need to know the size of the heart, lungs and muscles to put it
into an equation, not just the overall mass, because one does not know what
the mass consists of.
Is the mass mainly fluid, bone, stomach, intestine and fat???
I can't think of the name of the horse off hand , but there was a horse
racing during the Spring Carnival nearly 18 hands, the commentators remarked
on it and you could easily see the difference in the barriers, but it never
even placed in all it's starts. 
Just my opinion, when working hands on with horses, forgive the pun :)
Lindsay.




-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Saturday, 20 May 2017 2:26 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

The first equation breaks down to M x D when speed is replaces by D/T.

Energy expended is not mass x distance.

The second equation is correct for KE  but that is the energy of a body mass
M moving at a constant velocity V.
(like an imaginary train running on rails in a vacuum i.e. no energy losses,
100% efficiency).
KE increases linearly with the mass M - so if the body mass increase by 30Kg
the KE rises proportionately.
Racing results are often a matter of inches, and that increase alone can
certainly make a difference to the result.

A horse does not move at a constant velocity.
It is nowhere near  a 100% efficient machine.
A horse spends far more energy each stride in moving its legs, neck and head
and raising its body and the jockey each stride, Uses energy to pump blood
from its heart and to expand its lungs, replaces energy lost as hooves
impact the ground and slip, expends energy against gradients, curves and air
resistance.
A horse does not produce energy at a constant rate - it builds up during the
race then falters at the finish.

A 500 kg horse produce power at roughly the cube of its body weight. 
So a 600 Kg horse produces nearly double (1.73 times) the power, for a 20%
increase in body weight.
A variation of 0.19 lengths over 1600 metres is clearly wrong.

Unless you take all the factors into account, you get the wrong answers.

Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: 19 May 2017 16:50
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Roger Biggs, writing in Handicapping for 21 C examined the premise that
weight, time and distance are linked.

The equation he used is E = mass(m) * time(t) * speed(s) where E = energy,
mass = weight in kilos, time = time in seconds, speed = speed in
metres/second.
This is the energy balance equation. All of us saw this in science in junior
high school.

Another equation is KE= (mass/2) * speed * speed 

 From these he showed that the horse weight, the several hundreds of
kilograms, was inconsequential by any comparison.

Using his equation he showed the effect of adding 1 kg to a 500 kg
horse(1.16), compared to a 600 kg horse(0.97) slowed these by a value of .19
lengths, as a demonstration. 

By varying the weights of the horse, rider, gear between 500 and 600 kg the
variation was 0.19 lengths over 1600 metres.

Biggs used the standard 2.75 metres length also,  and you can use the
calculation formula to produce the answer in seconds, metres or lengths.

This is the first time that the weight/lengths table has been verified using
the physics of the racetrack and the very first time that it has been
confirmed that the effect of weight increases with distance and what that
true magnitude is

This is the early part of the several calculations involved in Speed
Handicapping, where times, barrier, jockey and other fundementals are
examined.

I sought permission from Roger Biggs, the author, and owner of the text in
his book to quote that which I  have written. Thank you Mr Biggs. 

The book was written/published in 1998.

Newer, better, data is available in a more recent book, Handicapping My Way,
written by Roger Biggs and for sale on the RB Ratings site.
Thank you to John Hunter (RB Ratings) for his assistance with this also.

Cheers

Tony
Again - I did not snip, the earlier posts may assist Off the scene for a few
days now
 
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 16, 2017 7:56 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

There are no such books I am aware of - I derive new methods myself with
inspiration from sport science blogs particularly athletics and cycling.
Eg http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/cJKs
There are today more veterinary papers that deal with energy production,
lactates etc.
Tasmania provides stride length data.
So I have got bits and pieces from all over.

What did Biggs ""destroy" exactly - science?
Sports science is a different and all-encompassing world these days.

I introduced time lengths into UK where the camera time for each horse is
recorded as it passes the line.
An artificial lengths value is produced based entirely on race time
differences for those who still use horse lengths.
Horse lengths are so many 1/5ths of a second(they should be 1/6ths really
for flat racing).

In UK racing, races are not always won in the last two or last furlongs.
They are often lost in the first two furlongs.
If you have full race sectional data that becomes apparent but the last two
furlongs are probably OK as long as you bear in mind what happened the
earlier stages.

Best wishes,
Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: 16 May 2017 06:16
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Robert thanks
Can you suggest some texts/books which may explain this in full The horse
stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, gradient, curve all interest me
(and others I would hope)

Biggs, in Australia, destroyed the horse weight involvement argument, and
with that also the wind resistance and almost everything associated with the
horse running as it did.
 See Handicapping for 21 Century

I have been using the overall time and the final 660 metre times but realise
that the values can be attributed to different runners, Radish at the
600metres and Doofus at the end/ finish but it's a value now linked in form
here so it is meaningful.

It works if you visualise that the runners are static to the winner at the
moment of crossing the line, when the time is captured.

Again there were some queries off list but if I can answer them here.

I wrote of the value of 16.5 divided into the race length to get a standard
value, centred on 6 over all distances The 16.5 is derived from the product
of 6 (lengths per second) times
2.75 (the length standard for a horse here) So that 1400 metres is
1400/16.5 = 84.84 seconds so that runners near that figure or bettering it
should be considered.

In effect the 600m time is all you need (to apply data to this method) -all
runners have the same value and you can correct that For each runner using
finish length times 2.75 minus race length divided by
2.75 divided by 600m TIME. The query arose because the inquirier was
dividing by 600 metres, but it is the 600 metre time that has been
corrected.

The 600 metre time is useful because it eliminates the different distances
run by this runner and having to correct it to todays distance.

It would be natural to modify the time/distance using new run distance
divided by old run distance times last run beaten lengths but that may ramp
up the prospects of some horse in a fast run race.

Try using old score(lengths per second) divided by new score (lengths per
second) times the old beaten finish distance to give you a new beaten
distance. 
This correction is for those of us looking for precision. The same amendment
can be made using the finishing position(less one) as the first part of the
equation And I am sure, but have not tested it over many races, that it will
still leave your good horse in contention, although ranked elsewhere, so a
second to a fourth ranking perhaps.
 Cheers

Tony
I did not snip on purpose
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Thursday, May 11, 2017 9:10 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Tony,


Hong Kong and Japan give body weights and sectionals which is invaluable to
calibrate any model..
In UK where handicaps dominate they refuse to provide that data.

Power production and power availability is determined from sectionals, horse
stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, the going at that section (you
now have some Turftrax maps in Oz), gradient, curve and drafting. You can
observe when the production peaks and falters.
The analysis can only be done by computer.

Bob Wilkins is from Manchester University in UK.
His analysis method is complex enough but misses out a lot of the practical
details and that available energy is not produced evenly. 
Some of this comes from the lack of pre-race warm up and some that horse
differ in how quickly in the race their energy production levels rise. 
The even pace theories are not what happens in reality. We know it does not
happen at the start or finish but it is uneven in the middle also.

I think it is more reliable for judging fitness visually by comparing what
things look like today as compared to the last two races.
Now we have wall to wall racing that has become impractical unless you cut
out 90% of racing.

Best wishes,
Robert



-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: 11 May 2017 05:42
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Robert.
Other racing jurisdictions do publicise horse bodyweight, the Asian circuit
is one.
They also have so much data to access as well.
If wagering drives racing, and it appears to in Asia and certainly does
here, then more data, including horse bodyweight should be made available.
You mention power production and power availability, how is that determined
or calculated, or is it from time+distance?

I have read Bio - Energetics? Bob Wilkins(USA)-from the book" It describes a
scientific study of competitive running and develops a mathematical model
which balances  the energy supply from both anaerobic and aerobic sources
with the energy required to accelerate the body, sustain running, and
overcome air resistance. 
When applied to horse racing it allows the relationships between distance,
time, weight carried, going, and other factors, to be evaluated. 
The model is applied to racing on turf in Britain, but it is easily adapted
to racing on other surfaces and tracks. 
The result of the model is a Power Equation, which can be used to assess
performance in a race in terms of a power rating.
 Two methods of assessing performance are examined in detail, based on race
time, or on collateral form.
Examples are given of the calculation of time ratings (speed ratings) and
form ratings.
 This book is not about "how to pick winners" or racing "systems". 
It is about the link between equine exercise physiology and racehorse
ratings.
 A basic under-standing of mathematics is required to follow the development
of the model.
 The uses of racehorse ratings are only briefly discussed, at the end of the
book.
 However, because racing and betting are inextricably linked, a short
cautionary note on betting is also included."

Some horseplayers state emphatically they can pick a fit horse on sight.

I am aware of several instances where a horse was set for a race, two
fitness runs where it was flogged like a criminal then into the set race
where it failed, 6th.
It was beaten by a group with two horses who also targeted this race and
their plan worked. The horse that failed then won its next two as favourite.
The bookmaker knew, he owned the horses. It was common knowledge in the
village that these horses would run well, they did too.

I later rated, using Plante and Scott techniques/methodology, the lead up
runs and the actual races and none of those runners were top raters. 
I wrote about these incidents 36 years later and may post that exam on
Ausrace as it is topical.

Cheers

Tony

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 9, 2017 9:36 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Lindsay,

The other "unknown" with respect to weight is the horse body weight.
Some unfit horses may lose up to 20kg between races.
They may also put on more muscle and associated power production between
races.
They will then often have more power available but still race next with a
lower body weight.
If they are carrying less jockey and lead weight, then a further advantage
arises.
In UK, only the trainer and owner have direct access to that knowledge,
which can make a fool of the long odds based on  apparent "form" when the
"unfancied" horse races next.

Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race Stats
Sent: 09 May 2017 13:43
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

"However, that fast aspect may occur elsewhere in the race, other than in
the final moments. I was looking at that score too. The 'midrace'
calculation almost gives the information we need."

Exactly Tony, in the USA they run flat out from the start in most races, so
the American time gurus came here and failed miserably.
The Melbourne Cup and The Cox Plate are two races that are generally run at
a faster pace than their other similar distance black type races.

"In reality, I don't consider jockeys at all, in my regular punting that is.
They are just a requirement within the rules of racing, provide the handicap
race weight and wear a  coloured shirt, and pull faces at the crowd at the
finish, then blame the barrier if they lose."

The barrier is an excuse, just like the pull in weights.
If the horse loses, it was the barrier or the pull in weights, yet so many
horses do win from bad barriers and carry top weight to win.
I've said it before, the way in which weight is allocated, hardly makes a
difference to a good horse's performance.
Len, was right when he said that riderless horses past the post first if
they run straight, so weight does matter.
However, a riderless horse may have a weight difference of 56 kgs to every
other runner!
When one looks at a difference of .50kgs up to 3kgs, the differences are
minimal.
Lindsay




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From RaceStats at hotmail.com  Mon May 22 01:29:51 2017
From: RaceStats at hotmail.com (Race Stats)
Date: Sun, 21 May 2017 15:29:51 +0000
Subject: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff
In-Reply-To: <003f01d2d238$6867cb80$39376280$@ntlworld.com>
References: <000001d2c872$aa0ad7f0$fe2087d0$@bigpond.com>
	<HKXPR02MB05989D34967D89D931DEC243BBEF0@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>
	<001301d2c8c9$3b678f30$b236ad90$@ntlworld.com>
	<000001d2ca10$de564950$9b02dbf0$@bigpond.com>
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	<000001d2ce03$7efc8db0$7cf5a910$@bigpond.com>
	<008601d2ce3b$73ae22b0$5b0a6810$@ntlworld.com>
	<000001d2d0b7$968951a0$c39bf4e0$@bigpond.com>
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	<000201d2d222$fb0e8700$f12b9500$@bigpond.com>
	<003f01d2d238$6867cb80$39376280$@ntlworld.com>
Message-ID: <HKXPR02MB05983AA0AD7E916FA0296C39BBFB0@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>

Hi Robert,
I guess what I'm getting at, is that horses range from 15.2 hands (roughly) to over 17 hands.
The average horse length nose to tail is 2.40 metres, not 2.75 metres, but within that there are many variations.
By using averages, one isn't going to get the correct output for 2yo and 3yo races.
When you geld a horse from an entire to a gelding, they go through a growth spurt, which is why it is so popular unless a horse has shown spectacular ability as a 2 or 3yo. 
My grandfather (I think I mentioned this before), was a horse trainer in Ireland.
He was also a punter and made his fortune when he picked the entire card at a race meeting just by looking at the horses in the yard.
The horse had to be well muscled with some rib showing when walking, a sheen on the coat, a deep girth and high withers.
The deep girth gave a good indication of heart and lung capacity, the high withers indicating stride length.
Just for banter.
Lindsay

 


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Sunday, 21 May 2017 11:45 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff



Hi Lindsay,

The mass of a horse is as you say known to the trainers and the public in Hong Kong and Japan.
Why do you think the connections of a trainer or punters in HK etc cannot use that information?

The length of a horse is not defined in any racing jurisdiction.
An average is about 8.4 feet from established sires. (2.75m is 9.1 feet).
The frame size of a horse is fully grown at about 3-4 years. Growth change of components may go on until 5 years.
I explained earlier that the length of a horse is irrelevant to punting if time -lengths are used.

You are correct that weight changes can be good or bad as far as performance is concerned.
The problem is that joe-public can only judge (guess) that at the track but the trainer has the full information at time of entry.

Roughly does mean roughly. 
Each horse varies in what it can do with what nature has provided.
If you have more precise information then it is used - if no extra information, then averages are used.

Again the makeup of heart , lungs etc varies enormously.
The point I was making is that if you simply ignore the energy production and requirements of all that which goes together to produce a performance, you get the wrong answers.
What you can do is use what information you do have when you have it. All components gets boiled down into how the horse has performed on the track so the individual contributions add up to a performance - exactly how is not so important as the performance.
However for a given horse all the components are more or less fixed - the big variable race to race is the horse body weight.
Boxing fights give that key information.
Racehorse trainers know it is key information.
And that is why it is so important and is wrong that punters do not get that information as a given.

Robert



-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race Stats
Sent: Saturday, May 20, 2017 6:44 AM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony and Robert,
The mass of the horse is unknown except to the trainer and stable hands, so the equation is doomed at the very start.
One cannot use 2.75 metres for a horse, that horse would have to be 17 hands plus.
Again when trying to put it into an equation, you get out what you put in.
Horses are not fully grown until the age of 7.
So using 2.75 metres for a 2yo, 3yo or 4yo will be inaccurate.
Trainers do weigh their horses here, but it is not published anywhere I've seen.
Weight of the horse has another aspect to it, has it lost fat and gained muscle or has it just trained off?

"A 500 kg horse produce power at roughly the cube of its body weight. 
So a 600 Kg horse produces nearly double (1.73 times) the power, for a 20% increase in body weight."

Again this is a presumption of over thousands of different horses.
Body weight does not necessarily mean more power even if it's muscle because it depends on the size of the lungs, heart and throat.
I've literally been at autopsies of horses where the heart and lungs were bigger in the smaller horse.
One would need to know the size of the heart, lungs and muscles to put it into an equation, not just the overall mass, because one does not know what the mass consists of.
Is the mass mainly fluid, bone, stomach, intestine and fat???
I can't think of the name of the horse off hand , but there was a horse racing during the Spring Carnival nearly 18 hands, the commentators remarked on it and you could easily see the difference in the barriers, but it never even placed in all it's starts. 
Just my opinion, when working hands on with horses, forgive the pun :) Lindsay.




-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Saturday, 20 May 2017 2:26 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

The first equation breaks down to M x D when speed is replaces by D/T.

Energy expended is not mass x distance.

The second equation is correct for KE  but that is the energy of a body mass M moving at a constant velocity V.
(like an imaginary train running on rails in a vacuum i.e. no energy losses, 100% efficiency).
KE increases linearly with the mass M - so if the body mass increase by 30Kg the KE rises proportionately.
Racing results are often a matter of inches, and that increase alone can certainly make a difference to the result.

A horse does not move at a constant velocity.
It is nowhere near  a 100% efficient machine.
A horse spends far more energy each stride in moving its legs, neck and head and raising its body and the jockey each stride, Uses energy to pump blood from its heart and to expand its lungs, replaces energy lost as hooves impact the ground and slip, expends energy against gradients, curves and air resistance.
A horse does not produce energy at a constant rate - it builds up during the race then falters at the finish.

A 500 kg horse produce power at roughly the cube of its body weight. 
So a 600 Kg horse produces nearly double (1.73 times) the power, for a 20% increase in body weight.
A variation of 0.19 lengths over 1600 metres is clearly wrong.

Unless you take all the factors into account, you get the wrong answers.

Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: 19 May 2017 16:50
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Roger Biggs, writing in Handicapping for 21 C examined the premise that weight, time and distance are linked.

The equation he used is E = mass(m) * time(t) * speed(s) where E = energy, mass = weight in kilos, time = time in seconds, speed = speed in metres/second.
This is the energy balance equation. All of us saw this in science in junior high school.

Another equation is KE= (mass/2) * speed * speed 

 From these he showed that the horse weight, the several hundreds of kilograms, was inconsequential by any comparison.

Using his equation he showed the effect of adding 1 kg to a 500 kg horse(1.16), compared to a 600 kg horse(0.97) slowed these by a value of .19 lengths, as a demonstration. 

By varying the weights of the horse, rider, gear between 500 and 600 kg the variation was 0.19 lengths over 1600 metres.

Biggs used the standard 2.75 metres length also,  and you can use the calculation formula to produce the answer in seconds, metres or lengths.

This is the first time that the weight/lengths table has been verified using the physics of the racetrack and the very first time that it has been confirmed that the effect of weight increases with distance and what that true magnitude is

This is the early part of the several calculations involved in Speed Handicapping, where times, barrier, jockey and other fundementals are examined.

I sought permission from Roger Biggs, the author, and owner of the text in his book to quote that which I  have written. Thank you Mr Biggs. 

The book was written/published in 1998.

Newer, better, data is available in a more recent book, Handicapping My Way, written by Roger Biggs and for sale on the RB Ratings site.
Thank you to John Hunter (RB Ratings) for his assistance with this also.

Cheers

Tony
Again - I did not snip, the earlier posts may assist Off the scene for a few days now
 
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 16, 2017 7:56 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

There are no such books I am aware of - I derive new methods myself with inspiration from sport science blogs particularly athletics and cycling.
Eg http://feeds.feedburner.com/blogspot/cJKs
There are today more veterinary papers that deal with energy production, lactates etc.
Tasmania provides stride length data.
So I have got bits and pieces from all over.

What did Biggs ""destroy" exactly - science?
Sports science is a different and all-encompassing world these days.

I introduced time lengths into UK where the camera time for each horse is recorded as it passes the line.
An artificial lengths value is produced based entirely on race time differences for those who still use horse lengths.
Horse lengths are so many 1/5ths of a second(they should be 1/6ths really for flat racing).

In UK racing, races are not always won in the last two or last furlongs.
They are often lost in the first two furlongs.
If you have full race sectional data that becomes apparent but the last two furlongs are probably OK as long as you bear in mind what happened the earlier stages.

Best wishes,
Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: 16 May 2017 06:16
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Robert thanks
Can you suggest some texts/books which may explain this in full The horse stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, gradient, curve all interest me (and others I would hope)

Biggs, in Australia, destroyed the horse weight involvement argument, and with that also the wind resistance and almost everything associated with the horse running as it did.
 See Handicapping for 21 Century

I have been using the overall time and the final 660 metre times but realise that the values can be attributed to different runners, Radish at the 600metres and Doofus at the end/ finish but it's a value now linked in form here so it is meaningful.

It works if you visualise that the runners are static to the winner at the moment of crossing the line, when the time is captured.

Again there were some queries off list but if I can answer them here.

I wrote of the value of 16.5 divided into the race length to get a standard value, centred on 6 over all distances The 16.5 is derived from the product of 6 (lengths per second) times
2.75 (the length standard for a horse here) So that 1400 metres is
1400/16.5 = 84.84 seconds so that runners near that figure or bettering it should be considered.

In effect the 600m time is all you need (to apply data to this method) -all runners have the same value and you can correct that For each runner using finish length times 2.75 minus race length divided by
2.75 divided by 600m TIME. The query arose because the inquirier was dividing by 600 metres, but it is the 600 metre time that has been corrected.

The 600 metre time is useful because it eliminates the different distances run by this runner and having to correct it to todays distance.

It would be natural to modify the time/distance using new run distance divided by old run distance times last run beaten lengths but that may ramp up the prospects of some horse in a fast run race.

Try using old score(lengths per second) divided by new score (lengths per
second) times the old beaten finish distance to give you a new beaten distance. 
This correction is for those of us looking for precision. The same amendment can be made using the finishing position(less one) as the first part of the equation And I am sure, but have not tested it over many races, that it will still leave your good horse in contention, although ranked elsewhere, so a second to a fourth ranking perhaps.
 Cheers

Tony
I did not snip on purpose
-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Thursday, May 11, 2017 9:10 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Tony,


Hong Kong and Japan give body weights and sectionals which is invaluable to calibrate any model..
In UK where handicaps dominate they refuse to provide that data.

Power production and power availability is determined from sectionals, horse stride kinetics, stride length and cadence, the going at that section (you now have some Turftrax maps in Oz), gradient, curve and drafting. You can observe when the production peaks and falters.
The analysis can only be done by computer.

Bob Wilkins is from Manchester University in UK.
His analysis method is complex enough but misses out a lot of the practical details and that available energy is not produced evenly. 
Some of this comes from the lack of pre-race warm up and some that horse differ in how quickly in the race their energy production levels rise. 
The even pace theories are not what happens in reality. We know it does not happen at the start or finish but it is uneven in the middle also.

I think it is more reliable for judging fitness visually by comparing what things look like today as compared to the last two races.
Now we have wall to wall racing that has become impractical unless you cut out 90% of racing.

Best wishes,
Robert



-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: 11 May 2017 05:42
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Robert.
Other racing jurisdictions do publicise horse bodyweight, the Asian circuit is one.
They also have so much data to access as well.
If wagering drives racing, and it appears to in Asia and certainly does here, then more data, including horse bodyweight should be made available.
You mention power production and power availability, how is that determined or calculated, or is it from time+distance?

I have read Bio - Energetics? Bob Wilkins(USA)-from the book" It describes a scientific study of competitive running and develops a mathematical model which balances  the energy supply from both anaerobic and aerobic sources with the energy required to accelerate the body, sustain running, and overcome air resistance. 
When applied to horse racing it allows the relationships between distance, time, weight carried, going, and other factors, to be evaluated. 
The model is applied to racing on turf in Britain, but it is easily adapted to racing on other surfaces and tracks. 
The result of the model is a Power Equation, which can be used to assess performance in a race in terms of a power rating.
 Two methods of assessing performance are examined in detail, based on race time, or on collateral form.
Examples are given of the calculation of time ratings (speed ratings) and form ratings.
 This book is not about "how to pick winners" or racing "systems". 
It is about the link between equine exercise physiology and racehorse ratings.
 A basic under-standing of mathematics is required to follow the development of the model.
 The uses of racehorse ratings are only briefly discussed, at the end of the book.
 However, because racing and betting are inextricably linked, a short cautionary note on betting is also included."

Some horseplayers state emphatically they can pick a fit horse on sight.

I am aware of several instances where a horse was set for a race, two fitness runs where it was flogged like a criminal then into the set race where it failed, 6th.
It was beaten by a group with two horses who also targeted this race and their plan worked. The horse that failed then won its next two as favourite.
The bookmaker knew, he owned the horses. It was common knowledge in the village that these horses would run well, they did too.

I later rated, using Plante and Scott techniques/methodology, the lead up runs and the actual races and none of those runners were top raters. 
I wrote about these incidents 36 years later and may post that exam on Ausrace as it is topical.

Cheers

Tony

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Robert Ford
Sent: Tuesday, May 9, 2017 9:36 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Lindsay,

The other "unknown" with respect to weight is the horse body weight.
Some unfit horses may lose up to 20kg between races.
They may also put on more muscle and associated power production between races.
They will then often have more power available but still race next with a lower body weight.
If they are carrying less jockey and lead weight, then a further advantage arises.
In UK, only the trainer and owner have direct access to that knowledge, which can make a fool of the long odds based on  apparent "form" when the "unfancied" horse races next.

Robert


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race Stats
Sent: 09 May 2017 13:43
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Lengths per second score and stuff

Hi Tony,

"However, that fast aspect may occur elsewhere in the race, other than in the final moments. I was looking at that score too. The 'midrace'
calculation almost gives the information we need."

Exactly Tony, in the USA they run flat out from the start in most races, so the American time gurus came here and failed miserably.
The Melbourne Cup and The Cox Plate are two races that are generally run at a faster pace than their other similar distance black type races.

"In reality, I don't consider jockeys at all, in my regular punting that is.
They are just a requirement within the rules of racing, provide the handicap race weight and wear a  coloured shirt, and pull faces at the crowd at the finish, then blame the barrier if they lose."

The barrier is an excuse, just like the pull in weights.
If the horse loses, it was the barrier or the pull in weights, yet so many horses do win from bad barriers and carry top weight to win.
I've said it before, the way in which weight is allocated, hardly makes a difference to a good horse's performance.
Len, was right when he said that riderless horses past the post first if they run straight, so weight does matter.
However, a riderless horse may have a weight difference of 56 kgs to every other runner!
When one looks at a difference of .50kgs up to 3kgs, the differences are minimal.
Lindsay




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From tonymoffat at bigpond.com  Sat May 27 15:29:08 2017
From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat)
Date: Sat, 27 May 2017 13:29:08 +0800
Subject: [AusRace] Blue Gum Theories - a system
In-Reply-To: <000201d2d6a9$efde3520$cf9a9f60$@bigpond.com>
References: <000201d2d6a9$efde3520$cf9a9f60$@bigpond.com>
Message-ID: <000401d2d6aa$2a7c76b0$7f756410$@bigpond.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: Tony Moffat [mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com] 
Sent: Saturday, May 27, 2017 1:28 PM
To: ausrace at ausrace.com
Subject: Blue Gum Theories - a system

Blue Gum wrote and published several systems in the 60's - the
'Patarina' was a selection plan and 'investment' plan.
 You backed the favourite for a place in race 1, for a place in race
3, for a place in race 5 using the exclusive investment plan. 

His 'Proserpine' method was different. I have only seen two copies and
I have them.
 Blue Gum wrote that he lived at Airlie Beach which is just down the
road from Proserpine -a nice part of the world too.

Using the selections of  tipsters in the newspaper he assembled a
group of numbers, for each race at each venue, and for the whole
venue.
The SMH had 12 tipsters, and you collated the tipster selections from
them. The Age had 16 tipsters.
That is a fairly big time investment, that collating, using those
papers.

Using the tipsters from Tabtouch today I did Brisbane race 4.
First the overall collation, there are 8 races with four winners
selected in each race -so 32 selections.
Tab 1 scored 6 selections so it is written as (1,6) and in a total
selection pool of 32 picks it is priced as 32/6 =5.33
(1,6),(2,3),(3,1),(4,1),(5,2),(6,2),(7,3)(8,4)(9,2)(10,1),(11,2)(12,0)
,13(1),(14,4) etc.

The selections come from the four nominees promoted by the tipsters -
all are considered likely winners, for the purpose of the exercise any
rate.

Bluegum wrote at length about the connection, the 'magic, and the
'mystic' of the numbers, 'flowing' between races too. The runners were
priced also, the overall selection count (32) divided by each numbers
selection appearance.
In race four after scratchings, by my calculations, the following
selections occurred 1-priced at 5.33, tab div 12.30 4-priced at 32,
36.50 5-priced at 16, 16.00 7-priced at 10.7,12.70 11-priced at 16,
20.60 14-priced at 8, 71.80

I probably would not be writing this BUT for 14 winning at 71.80 with
a top of 71.00 also. 1,5,7 and 11 all exceeded their tab div with top
price.

In race one, select 9 and 11, 11 placed at 5.90 In race two, the
winner had a top fluc of 13 and was selected as a result In race
three, select 1,2,5,6,7,8,10 for no result In race 4, see result above
In race 5, select 1,2,6,8.
In race 6, select 1,2,9,13,14
In race 7, select 2,7,8,9
In race 8, select 2,9 

Interesting that 'Bluegum' has a further selection plan, amongst many
in the book, whereby a runner saluting with 14 or TAB numbers greater
than this, that number should be bet in future races.
Race 3 won by 14, Race 4 won by 14 - this stuff writes itself.

Cheers

Tony






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From tonymoffat at bigpond.com  Sun May 28 11:54:30 2017
From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat)
Date: Sun, 28 May 2017 09:54:30 +0800
Subject: [AusRace] Blue Gum Theories - a system
In-Reply-To: <000401d2d6aa$2a7c76b0$7f756410$@bigpond.com>
References: <000201d2d6a9$efde3520$cf9a9f60$@bigpond.com>
	<000401d2d6aa$2a7c76b0$7f756410$@bigpond.com>
Message-ID: <000001d2d755$59afa140$0d0ee3c0$@bigpond.com>

Continuing the enchantment of 14, mentioned earlier.
Horse 14 won race 6 and featured in the results of races 7 and 8. And
Race 1, before you knew it.
Magic. Yes, I meant mystique when I wrote mystic, thank you for
pointing that out.
To answer a query, there were 32 selections over the 8 races, their
numbers do co-incide
because all runners are numbered, it is individual for each race.
I don't know why the author chose to price his selections that way, 32
divided by the number of times the horse is selected.
If you priced each race within itself then all runners would be $4, so
you can assume why he did it his way, the 32/? bit.
Patarina is the system advertised on the inside back cover of 'Man'
magazine, there were pictures of pneumatic girls too
although I read it for the political content only, truly, and the ads.

Cheers
Tony


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony
Moffat
Sent: Saturday, May 27, 2017 1:29 PM
To: racing at ausrace.com
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Blue Gum Theories - a system



-----Original Message-----
From: Tony Moffat [mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com]
Sent: Saturday, May 27, 2017 1:28 PM
To: ausrace at ausrace.com
Subject: Blue Gum Theories - a system

Blue Gum wrote and published several systems in the 60's - the
'Patarina' was a selection plan and 'investment' plan.
 You backed the favourite for a place in race 1, for a place in race
3, for a place in race 5 using the exclusive investment plan. 

His 'Proserpine' method was different. I have only seen two copies and
I have them.
 Blue Gum wrote that he lived at Airlie Beach which is just down the
road from Proserpine -a nice part of the world too.

Using the selections of  tipsters in the newspaper he assembled a
group of numbers, for each race at each venue, and for the whole
venue.
The SMH had 12 tipsters, and you collated the tipster selections from
them. The Age had 16 tipsters.
That is a fairly big time investment, that collating, using those
papers.

Using the tipsters from Tabtouch today I did Brisbane race 4.
First the overall collation, there are 8 races with four winners
selected in each race -so 32 selections.
Tab 1 scored 6 selections so it is written as (1,6) and in a total
selection pool of 32 picks it is priced as 32/6 =5.33
(1,6),(2,3),(3,1),(4,1),(5,2),(6,2),(7,3)(8,4)(9,2)(10,1),(11,2)(12,0)
,13(1),(14,4) etc.

The selections come from the four nominees promoted by the tipsters -
all are considered likely winners, for the purpose of the exercise any
rate.

Bluegum wrote at length about the connection, the 'magic, and the
'mystic' of the numbers, 'flowing' between races too. The runners were
priced also, the overall selection count (32) divided by each numbers
selection appearance.
In race four after scratchings, by my calculations, the following
selections occurred 

1-priced at 5.33, tab div 12.30

 4-priced at 32,36.50 

5-priced at 16, 16.00

 7-priced at 10.7,12.70 

11-priced at 16,20.60

 14-priced at 8, 71.80

I probably would not be writing this BUT for 14 winning at 71.80 with
a top of 71.00 also. 1,5,7 and 11 all exceeded their tab div with top
price.

In race one, select 9 and 11, 11 placed at 5.90 In race two, the
winner had a top fluc of 13 and was selected as a result In race
three, select 1,2,5,6,7,8,10 for no result In race 4, see result above
In race 5, select 1,2,6,8.
In race 6, select 1,2,9,13,14
In race 7, select 2,7,8,9
In race 8, select 2,9 

Interesting that 'Bluegum' has a further selection plan, amongst many
in the book, whereby a runner saluting with 14 or TAB numbers greater
than this, that number should be bet in future races.
Race 3 won by 14, Race 4 won by 14 - this stuff writes itself.

Cheers

Tony






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From tonymoffat at bigpond.com  Sun May 28 15:31:55 2017
From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat)
Date: Sun, 28 May 2017 13:31:55 +0800
Subject: [AusRace] Blue Gum Theories - a system
In-Reply-To: <000001d2d755$59afa140$0d0ee3c0$@bigpond.com>
References: <000201d2d6a9$efde3520$cf9a9f60$@bigpond.com>	<000401d2d6aa$2a7c76b0$7f756410$@bigpond.com>
	<000001d2d755$59afa140$0d0ee3c0$@bigpond.com>
Message-ID: <000001d2d773$b8937c90$29ba75b0$@bigpond.com>

One last reply -from off list query
It is possible to price the runner selected in each race if these
runners are in the style of first pick, 2nd pick, third, fourth
If you sum 1+2+3+4 = 10 then change the polarity so that the fourth
pick must have odds of $10 or better,
The third pick  is priced as 10/2= 5. The second pick must have
10/3=3.33 dividend or better and the first pick must be better than
$2.50
You can work that out yourselves.

Last post on this from me

Cheers.

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony
Moffat
Sent: Sunday, May 28, 2017 9:55 AM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' <racing at ausrace.com>
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Blue Gum Theories - a system

Continuing the enchantment of 14, mentioned earlier.
Horse 14 won race 6 and featured in the results of races 7 and 8. And
Race 1, before you knew it.
Magic. Yes, I meant mystique when I wrote mystic, thank you for
pointing that out.
To answer a query, there were 32 selections over the 8 races, their
numbers do co-incide because all runners are numbered, it is
individual for each race.
I don't know why the author chose to price his selections that way, 32
divided by the number of times the horse is selected.
If you priced each race within itself then all runners would be $4, so
you can assume why he did it his way, the 32/? bit.
Patarina is the system advertised on the inside back cover of 'Man'
magazine, there were pictures of pneumatic girls too although I read
it for the political content only, truly, and the ads.

Cheers
Tony


-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony
Moffat
Sent: Saturday, May 27, 2017 1:29 PM
To: racing at ausrace.com
Subject: Re: [AusRace] Blue Gum Theories - a system



-----Original Message-----
From: Tony Moffat [mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com]
Sent: Saturday, May 27, 2017 1:28 PM
To: ausrace at ausrace.com
Subject: Blue Gum Theories - a system

Blue Gum wrote and published several systems in the 60's - the
'Patarina' was a selection plan and 'investment' plan.
 You backed the favourite for a place in race 1, for a place in race
3, for a place in race 5 using the exclusive investment plan. 

His 'Proserpine' method was different. I have only seen two copies and
I have them.
 Blue Gum wrote that he lived at Airlie Beach which is just down the
road from Proserpine -a nice part of the world too.

Using the selections of  tipsters in the newspaper he assembled a
group of numbers, for each race at each venue, and for the whole
venue.
The SMH had 12 tipsters, and you collated the tipster selections from
them. The Age had 16 tipsters.
That is a fairly big time investment, that collating, using those
papers.

Using the tipsters from Tabtouch today I did Brisbane race 4.
First the overall collation, there are 8 races with four winners
selected in each race -so 32 selections.
Tab 1 scored 6 selections so it is written as (1,6) and in a total
selection pool of 32 picks it is priced as 32/6 =5.33
(1,6),(2,3),(3,1),(4,1),(5,2),(6,2),(7,3)(8,4)(9,2)(10,1),(11,2)(12,0)
,13(1),(14,4) etc.

The selections come from the four nominees promoted by the tipsters -
all are considered likely winners, for the purpose of the exercise any
rate.

Bluegum wrote at length about the connection, the 'magic, and the
'mystic' of the numbers, 'flowing' between races too. The runners were
priced also, the overall selection count (32) divided by each numbers
selection appearance.
In race four after scratchings, by my calculations, the following
selections occurred 

1-priced at 5.33, tab div 12.30

 4-priced at 32,36.50 

5-priced at 16, 16.00

 7-priced at 10.7,12.70 

11-priced at 16,20.60

 14-priced at 8, 71.80

I probably would not be writing this BUT for 14 winning at 71.80 with
a top of 71.00 also. 1,5,7 and 11 all exceeded their tab div with top
price.

In race one, select 9 and 11, 11 placed at 5.90 In race two, the
winner had a top fluc of 13 and was selected as a result In race
three, select 1,2,5,6,7,8,10 for no result In race 4, see result above
In race 5, select 1,2,6,8.
In race 6, select 1,2,9,13,14
In race 7, select 2,7,8,9
In race 8, select 2,9 

Interesting that 'Bluegum' has a further selection plan, amongst many
in the book, whereby a runner saluting with 14 or TAB numbers greater
than this, that number should be bet in future races.
Race 3 won by 14, Race 4 won by 14 - this stuff writes itself.

Cheers

Tony






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From tonymoffat at bigpond.com  Wed May 31 00:18:19 2017
From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat)
Date: Tue, 30 May 2017 22:18:19 +0800
Subject: [AusRace] RYANS WAY - a system
Message-ID: <000001d2d94f$96f220e0$c4d662a0$@bigpond.com>

Ryan, in an article in the Sporting Globe, explained this method in
response to a request from the paper who were asking for selection
ideas -"systems"

 Later, Ryan wrote in and corrected what had been written first up, it
was emphasised that the selections came from handicaps, and that the
pre-race betting forecast be used in that runners had to exceed or
equal their pre-race betting forecast price -those prices you see in
the papers on race day or the day before . Further, the requirement
that only the first three TAB numbers be utilised was amended,
scratchings were permitted and the top three surviving numbers could
be used.

The results shown below use the first edition of the rules -strictly
the top three only, No scratching substitutes.

 However, Ryans Way did select a big slice of long priced horses when
most Systems submitted demanded you concentrate in amongst the short
priced runners.

There was no requirement to support or corroborate your method. You
did not have to give examples. Ryan did, 46 of them.

 In the manner of system authors and sellers most entries wrote up
their system as the best ever, bookie bashing
method and the beginning of the trail to untold and unspeakable riches
- perhaps that started with you buying the system.

 If it's good are you going to sell and really the winning methods
were not disclosed in the paper, nor anywhere else ever I would
suggest. Who would do that.

RYANS WAY
Ryan wrote that it had been observed, then recorded and examined in
the results of many races, handicaps of all ages and distances, where
the first three in the weights were on their own weight line, the top
weight, the second weight, the third weight. In a season in Melbourne
in 5 and 5 and half furlong open handicap races the author revealed
that these three horses, the three top weights, won 42% of races they
contested.

In  7 furlong open handicaps this  rose to 50%. In 8 furlong open
handicap races this group won 56%.

In 2yo handicaps races these runners scored in 61% of 5 furlong races
and won more than 53% of all 2yo handicap races of all distances.
There were 76 eligible races of this type, 2yo handicaps, all
distances, with form runners. 

The author of the system assured us that a profit could be made by
concentrating on these selections alone.

 Find the first three, decide your bets, bet and collect, and wait for
the next money making race.

 They had to be handicaps, where the handicapper decided their
inclusion in the field, and they had to have weights that were the top
three in the field, not equals, not promoted because of a scratching. 

There were 3 refinements you could use.

 It was suggested win only betting on the three runners.

 Or it was suggested win only betting on any of the three runners
whose available price was more than 7/1.

 Or, it was  suggested each way betting on runners paying better than
8/1 -he may have meant 8/1 or more because some of his samples include
these 8/1 runners and his calculations included a dividend of $3, the
place portion of an each way bet at 8/1 - all of that because the
author didn't' say it.

These examples came from Caulfield 02/08/1969 - a slow track with 8
races 

(a) Loss, 16/1 each way -2
(b) Loss, 25/1 each way-2
(c) WIN, 25/1 each way + 31.25
(d) WIN 9/1 each way + 11.25
( e ) Loss 12/1 each way - 2
(f) WIN 8/1 each way + 10.00
(g) WIN 8/1 each way +10.00
(h) Loss 15/1 each way - 2
The 25/1 winner started at 20/1 but did touch 25/1 at times
The other prices appear to be correct. 
The system made 54.5 this day- 1 unit win,1 unit place.

Summary:- RYANS WAY

Operate only on handicaps for horses with form. No first starters

Choose the first three in the weights, the top weight, the second top
weight, the third top weight

Selections must be the only horses running with those weights.

No bet if any of the three are scratched. 
No other runner can be substituted for a scratched runner.

Back each runner if its price exceeds 7/1

Or

Back each runner each way if its price exceeds 8/1

Other results continued
3rd 10/1 +1.50
LOSS - 2
WIN 8/1 + 10.00
2ND 8/1 + 1.00
WIN 20/1 + 25.00
WIN 8/1 +10.00
Etc.
The Melbourne Cup winner was selected using this system
WIN 16/1 Rain Lover +20.00
runner up Ben Lomond was also a selection each way 9/1

THE WINNER IS

The winner was the Jumping Favourites Plan.

The winning method concentrated on hurdles and steeples during winter.
The selection was the favourite when top weight. It claimed 87%
winning strike rate.
There were 7 picks over 3 three years.
I found more nominees than that, unless I mis read the selection
criteria - Tab 1 + favourite + winter(April,May,June,July), no other
restrictions known

WIN 4-6
WIN 13-4
2nd 6-4
3rd 9-4
2nd 5-2
2nd 6-4
WIN 2-1
FELL
FELL
FELL
WIN 6-4
WIN 4-1
WIN 7-4
WIN 2-1
For the year there were 63 jumps races and the top weight, after
scratchings, won 27% of those - maybe I am looking at this wrong.

Cheers

Tony










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