[AusRace] Cox Plate Winx

[Race Stats]

Hi all,
When the initial odds went up for Winx in the Cox Plate I believe it was $2.00 with most bookies.
I thought at the time, that's short for a future race so far away.
She has hoof filler in one of her hooves, so has hoof problems, but continues to dominate.
However, it has emerged that there is a strong contingent of quality overseas horses coming to do battle.
She could go lame, pull a suspensory ligament, or muscle tear and miss the Cox Plate altogether plus Waller is considering running Egg Tart in the Cox Plate, but definitely in the Caulfield Cup.
One punter placed $30,000 on her @ $2.00, the bookies responded by crushing her odds to $1.65 (the best I could find), some $1.60, but most $1.50.
There is simply no value to be had at $1.50 considering she hasn't won a race this preparation, she is coming back into work.
Things go wrong, and I certainly won't be taking even $1.65 in a race that she may or may not contest or win.
When she returns and wins a couple I can see her odds will further plummet, but there are some quality English horses coming over.
Hartnell has lost all form for some reason, so whether she wins or not, the odds are definitely well on the bookies side this time.
I'd rather take $1.50 or more the place on another quality horse. 
Lindsay