[AusRace] PUNKS - impressive numbers

Tony Moffat tonymoffat at bigpond.com
Sun Jun 11 21:00:43 AEST 2017

PUNKS promotes the dominance that 3 year old runners have over other
aged runners in mixed aged handicaps at this time of the year.

A comparative analysis of age groups explains this further.
3yo running against three year olds win 46.6% off 50.3% of their total
runs (46.6, 50.30)
3yo running against four year olds win 33.8% off 30.7% of their total
runs (33.8, 30.7)
3yo running against older horses win 19.6% off 18.4% of their total
runs (19.6, 18.4)
I have not included the data for 3yo v 2yo.
Ok, the figures quoted don't flatter the 3yo, there is an advantage
though, and the prices of the winning 3yo puts them in profit
More on that exact data soon.
6YO V 6YO win 36.7% off 35% of their total runs (36.7,35) and 63.3%
off 65% of their total runs (63.3,65), against older horses
2yo win  2.7%,.7%,.1% against 4,5 and 6yo respectively. 
When the handicapper gets involved and the 3yo receives weight for
past endeavours they manage rf scores not exceeded by other age groups
Weight up =At 53.5-1.35, at 55-1.7, at 56.5-1.91, at 58kgs-2.41(141%
above the mean).
Weight down= At 54.5-1.26, at 56-1.37, at 57.5 kgs-1.41
A 3yo at this time of the year, with a low TAB number, may be a good
The information is based on Table 6 page 10 of the book 'Weight'
written by Malcolm Knowles.
I contacted Mr Knowles by mobile phone today and sought and obtained
his permission to quote the data I have.
Thanks Malcolm, he advises he is retired now.

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