From tonymoffat at bigpond.com  Tue Jun  6 14:12:32 2017
From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat)
Date: Tue, 6 Jun 2017 12:12:32 +0800
Subject: [AusRace] PUNKS - a system
Message-ID: <000001d2de7b$1f364640$5da2d2c0$@bigpond.com>



-----Original Message-----
From: Tony Moffat [mailto:tonymoffat at bigpond.com] 
Sent: Tuesday, June 6, 2017 11:29 AM
To: Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com>
Subject: PUNKS - a system

It has been observed that 3year olds running against older horses in
HANDICAP races in June and July often win or place, some at good odds.
Is it because they are nearly fully grown and with youth can annoy and
beat the older runners just off these principles.

Some rules, choose geldings and colts first, then fillies. 
No more than 3 runners, or selections in any race - the 3yo may defeat
themselves if there are too many of them.
There can be  other 3yo runners in the race, choose c & g first, then
fillies, perhaps choose from the top weight down Or perhaps, wait
until the next and more suitable race - and watch as your 27.00 choice
places.
All runners should have run in a race,(preferably 4 or more -but that
is a personal bias of mine)

Some results: for this month 2017
-1/06: 
WIN 6.90,13.20,6.10,9,00,
2ND 3.10,3.60
3RD 3.30,6.30
UNP 12.40,5.20

-2/06
WIN 6.90
2ND 8.30,2.90,13.00,3.50
3RD 8.20,17.10,12.30,3.70
UNP 31.60,3.80

-3/06
WIN 2.5,9.70,6.60,4.20
2ND 5.30,12.40,9.20
3RD 12.70,4.00,11.50,9.80
UNP 30.40,7.80,11.00,12.40

-4/06
WIN 15.30,27.30
2ND 66.10,10.80,
3RD 6.60
UNP 17.20,8.80,3.40,9.20,132.00,13.20,14.50

-5/06
WIN - 2.10
2ND 4.40
3RD 40.00,31.70,
UNP 3.80,3.40

There is a plan/system/method for horses after August 1 - more on that
later may be.

Cheers

Tony
If it does not format try restore line breaks

Today-Tuesday 6/6/2017
TAMWORTH 1 ,2ND
TAMWORTH 1, the winner is 3yo and a maiden runner
WANG R1 WON 9.30
TAMWORTH 2 WON $33.40 but there are three other runners, two of them
fillies
BATHURST R2 2ND
BATHURST R3 3RD
TAMWORTH R4 WON AND 2ND (colts), there were 2 fillies here also
WANG R 5 2,4,8
BATHURST R3 3
WARWICK R4 1,4
WANG R6 5,7,12
BATHURST R4 1,3 + 2 FILLIES
WANG R7 1,5 + 2 FILLIES
WARWICK R5 5,13
BATHURST R5 2 3 9
TAMWORTH R7 7
WARWICK R6 5,11
BATHURST R6 1 2 4
WANG R9 5
TAMWORTH R7  3 + 3 FILLIES
WARWICK 7 3,6,9
WANG 10 3,5,10
BATHURST R7 4,5,10,11,16






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From tonymoffat at bigpond.com  Sun Jun 11 21:00:43 2017
From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat)
Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2017 19:00:43 +0800
Subject: [AusRace] PUNKS - impressive numbers
Message-ID: <000001d2e2a1$f9226a80$eb673f80$@bigpond.com>

					PUNKS
PUNKS promotes the dominance that 3 year old runners have over other
aged runners in mixed aged handicaps at this time of the year.

A comparative analysis of age groups explains this further.
3yo running against three year olds win 46.6% off 50.3% of their total
runs (46.6, 50.30)
3yo running against four year olds win 33.8% off 30.7% of their total
runs (33.8, 30.7)
3yo running against older horses win 19.6% off 18.4% of their total
runs (19.6, 18.4)
I have not included the data for 3yo v 2yo.
Ok, the figures quoted don't flatter the 3yo, there is an advantage
though, and the prices of the winning 3yo puts them in profit
More on that exact data soon.
6YO V 6YO win 36.7% off 35% of their total runs (36.7,35) and 63.3%
off 65% of their total runs (63.3,65), against older horses
deleted
2yo win  2.7%,.7%,.1% against 4,5 and 6yo respectively. 
When the handicapper gets involved and the 3yo receives weight for
past endeavours they manage rf scores not exceeded by other age groups
Weight up =At 53.5-1.35, at 55-1.7, at 56.5-1.91, at 58kgs-2.41(141%
above the mean).
Weight down= At 54.5-1.26, at 56-1.37, at 57.5 kgs-1.41
deleted
A 3yo at this time of the year, with a low TAB number, may be a good
bet
The information is based on Table 6 page 10 of the book 'Weight'
written by Malcolm Knowles.
I contacted Mr Knowles by mobile phone today and sought and obtained
his permission to quote the data I have.
Thanks Malcolm, he advises he is retired now.
Cheers
Tony


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From tonymoffat at bigpond.com  Thu Jun 29 10:18:25 2017
From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat)
Date: Thu, 29 Jun 2017 08:18:25 +0800
Subject: [AusRace] An Enigma
Message-ID: <000001d2f06d$39b57320$ad205960$@bigpond.com>

An Enigma

I have been watching this for a few years, checking most days for its
occurrence and it does recur frequently.
If the career figures of a runner are manipulated, de-constructed
almost, then the findings re applied to the selection of runners often
a new set of runners arrive, off the radar from other logical
selection processes.
If a runners career performance figures are modified to place it where
it is in this preparation then these runners can be considered
candidates for selection.
An example Warwick Farm race 6 today.
10 Another Snappy has the career figures 31,7,2,3 so 31 starts, 7
wins, 2 seconds,3 thirds to earn a 38.7% place strike rate. That 38.7%
is the figure everybody uses, it is representative of this runner
endeavours on a race course, over several years.
I had thought that this runner has other information titbits you could
use. Logically it can't call on its first up figures when it is 3 or
more runs in this preparation. You could use the 2nd up figures as
well, to really distill the horses potential with what is left. I
haven't done that to any great degree.
For starters, it is not first up, it's first up statistics are
displayed though so if you deducted those from its overall score would
this provide us with enough right information on which to base a
decision. It may promote it in ranking from 5th where it lingered
earlier.
It's first up record is 5 starts for nothing, zero. So 31,7,2,3
becomes 26,7,2,3 which equates to 46.15% and Another Snappy is
promoted, to 2nd, and is in the mix for inclusion in my betting.

10 Another Snappy won today paying 65.20 and 12.00. Using my rubbery
algorithm I had priced it as $3.40 place.

Summary: obtain the career performance record for each runner, deduct
the first up career performance record, calculate the percentage of
what remains and rank that with the other runners.

This method selected the 2nd place getter also, who was ranked first.
3rd and 4th rank ran 10th and 11th.
I applied a further restriction to runners coming in for
consideration. I used their assessed place % and deducted that from
the new calculated place percentage, the figure obtained after the
first up statistics are deducted. I then rank the resulting figures,
the biggest calculated benefit gets recognition this way. Another
Snappy had a 7.5% boost.
In Doomben race 7, six minutes later, the number one selection, and
the favourite won, $2.40, and got a 25% boost
In Sandown race 7, Kakanui failed to place
In Ballina race 7, Neurum won $6.40
In Gawler race 8, Nishiazabu placed 2nd, rated at $5 to place it paid
$8.80, Mighty Maher placed 2nd, rated at 3.40 it paid 3.50.
In Warwick Farm 7, 2nd ranking Cosmic Engine won paying $2.60. The
flop was Big Cheer.
In Doomben race 8, winner Patronizing was third pick but needed a
place dividend of $5 and was not selected. Top pick was Flaming Mogul
who ran down the track.
In Sandown race 8, top pick Two Hats was not successful.
In Gawler race 9, there were insufficient starters for us, and place
betting requires 8 runners. We picked 2nd and third with this method.
In Belmont race 6 top pick Pinsson, with a 35% boost placed and paid
$5.10 after rating at $2.50.
It may be ok to use both methods, meaning either method, the straight
out top pick after modification or what I use, being the ranking of
the boost the runner receives.
This developed out of a scheme to frank the favouritism of the short
prices that appear regularly now, the perceived best runner in the
field. This has been an ongoing study. It has been worthwhile.
Cheers
Tony



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From RaceStats at hotmail.com  Thu Jun 29 11:05:22 2017
From: RaceStats at hotmail.com (Race Stats)
Date: Thu, 29 Jun 2017 01:05:22 +0000
Subject: [AusRace] An Enigma
In-Reply-To: <000001d2f06d$39b57320$ad205960$@bigpond.com>
References: <000001d2f06d$39b57320$ad205960$@bigpond.com>
Message-ID: <HKXPR02MB059879222252113304873AB9BBD20@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>

Great thinking outside the box Tony!
Like the Unitab 100 pointers, it does not contain any allowances for recent form, just peak form.
Some of the 100 pointers, have woeful form and should not be ranked on top.
One must use more than one criteria or rating to be successful, as you are doing.
Be interested to see how this pans out for you without going into too much detail :)
Lindsay

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: Thursday, 29 June 2017 10:18 AM
To: racing at ausrace.com
Subject: [AusRace] An Enigma

An Enigma

I have been watching this for a few years, checking most days for its occurrence and it does recur frequently.
If the career figures of a runner are manipulated, de-constructed almost, then the findings re applied to the selection of runners often a new set of runners arrive, off the radar from other logical selection processes.
If a runners career performance figures are modified to place it where it is in this preparation then these runners can be considered candidates for selection.
An example Warwick Farm race 6 today.
10 Another Snappy has the career figures 31,7,2,3 so 31 starts, 7 wins, 2 seconds,3 thirds to earn a 38.7% place strike rate. That 38.7% is the figure everybody uses, it is representative of this runner endeavours on a race course, over several years.
I had thought that this runner has other information titbits you could use. Logically it can't call on its first up figures when it is 3 or more runs in this preparation. You could use the 2nd up figures as well, to really distill the horses potential with what is left. I haven't done that to any great degree.
For starters, it is not first up, it's first up statistics are displayed though so if you deducted those from its overall score would this provide us with enough right information on which to base a decision. It may promote it in ranking from 5th where it lingered earlier.
It's first up record is 5 starts for nothing, zero. So 31,7,2,3 becomes 26,7,2,3 which equates to 46.15% and Another Snappy is promoted, to 2nd, and is in the mix for inclusion in my betting.

10 Another Snappy won today paying 65.20 and 12.00. Using my rubbery algorithm I had priced it as $3.40 place.

Summary: obtain the career performance record for each runner, deduct the first up career performance record, calculate the percentage of what remains and rank that with the other runners.

This method selected the 2nd place getter also, who was ranked first.
3rd and 4th rank ran 10th and 11th.
I applied a further restriction to runners coming in for consideration. I used their assessed place % and deducted that from the new calculated place percentage, the figure obtained after the first up statistics are deducted. I then rank the resulting figures, the biggest calculated benefit gets recognition this way. Another Snappy had a 7.5% boost.
In Doomben race 7, six minutes later, the number one selection, and the favourite won, $2.40, and got a 25% boost In Sandown race 7, Kakanui failed to place In Ballina race 7, Neurum won $6.40 In Gawler race 8, Nishiazabu placed 2nd, rated at $5 to place it paid $8.80, Mighty Maher placed 2nd, rated at 3.40 it paid 3.50.
In Warwick Farm 7, 2nd ranking Cosmic Engine won paying $2.60. The flop was Big Cheer.
In Doomben race 8, winner Patronizing was third pick but needed a place dividend of $5 and was not selected. Top pick was Flaming Mogul who ran down the track.
In Sandown race 8, top pick Two Hats was not successful.
In Gawler race 9, there were insufficient starters for us, and place betting requires 8 runners. We picked 2nd and third with this method.
In Belmont race 6 top pick Pinsson, with a 35% boost placed and paid
$5.10 after rating at $2.50.
It may be ok to use both methods, meaning either method, the straight out top pick after modification or what I use, being the ranking of the boost the runner receives.
This developed out of a scheme to frank the favouritism of the short prices that appear regularly now, the perceived best runner in the field. This has been an ongoing study. It has been worthwhile.
Cheers
Tony



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From RaceStats at hotmail.com  Thu Jun 29 18:15:32 2017
From: RaceStats at hotmail.com (Race Stats)
Date: Thu, 29 Jun 2017 08:15:32 +0000
Subject: [AusRace] Cox Plate Winx
Message-ID: <HKXPR02MB0598CB7ED19F5C96FAE77DBABBD20@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>

Hi all,
When the initial odds went up for Winx in the Cox Plate I believe it was $2.00 with most bookies.
I thought at the time, that's short for a future race so far away.
She has hoof filler in one of her hooves, so has hoof problems, but continues to dominate.
However, it has emerged that there is a strong contingent of quality overseas horses coming to do battle.
She could go lame, pull a suspensory ligament, or muscle tear and miss the Cox Plate altogether plus Waller is considering running Egg Tart in the Cox Plate, but definitely in the Caulfield Cup.
One punter placed $30,000 on her @ $2.00, the bookies responded by crushing her odds to $1.65 (the best I could find), some $1.60, but most $1.50.
There is simply no value to be had at $1.50 considering she hasn't won a race this preparation, she is coming back into work.
Things go wrong, and I certainly won't be taking even $1.65 in a race that she may or may not contest or win.
When she returns and wins a couple I can see her odds will further plummet, but there are some quality English horses coming over.
Hartnell has lost all form for some reason, so whether she wins or not, the odds are definitely well on the bookies side this time.
I'd rather take $1.50 or more the place on another quality horse. 
Lindsay



From pfjg1g at gmail.com  Thu Jun 29 19:59:10 2017
From: pfjg1g at gmail.com (Stuart Mackay)
Date: Thu, 29 Jun 2017 19:59:10 +1000
Subject: [AusRace] Cox Plate Winx
In-Reply-To: <HKXPR02MB0598CB7ED19F5C96FAE77DBABBD20@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>
References: <HKXPR02MB0598CB7ED19F5C96FAE77DBABBD20@HKXPR02MB0598.apcprd02.prod.outlook.com>
Message-ID: <F9FE8314-0D98-476F-AD53-C300625DE7BD@gmail.com>

If you know anyone who wants $1.75 or less now send them my way ?

Sent from my iPad

> On 29 Jun 2017, at 6:15 PM, Race Stats <RaceStats at hotmail.com> wrote:
> 
> Hi all,
> When the initial odds went up for Winx in the Cox Plate I believe it was $2.00 with most bookies.
> I thought at the time, that's short for a future race so far away.
> She has hoof filler in one of her hooves, so has hoof problems, but continues to dominate.
> However, it has emerged that there is a strong contingent of quality overseas horses coming to do battle.
> She could go lame, pull a suspensory ligament, or muscle tear and miss the Cox Plate altogether plus Waller is considering running Egg Tart in the Cox Plate, but definitely in the Caulfield Cup.
> One punter placed $30,000 on her @ $2.00, the bookies responded by crushing her odds to $1.65 (the best I could find), some $1.60, but most $1.50.
> There is simply no value to be had at $1.50 considering she hasn't won a race this preparation, she is coming back into work.
> Things go wrong, and I certainly won't be taking even $1.65 in a race that she may or may not contest or win.
> When she returns and wins a couple I can see her odds will further plummet, but there are some quality English horses coming over.
> Hartnell has lost all form for some reason, so whether she wins or not, the odds are definitely well on the bookies side this time.
> I'd rather take $1.50 or more the place on another quality horse. 
> Lindsay
> 
> _______________________________________________
> Racing mailing list
> Racing at ausrace.com
> http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com