[AusRace] An Enigma
terry_styles at hotmail.com
Mon Jul 3 15:16:55 AEST 2017
Way back in the archives my post on systems using the 30/1 win of Henderson Bay gave some insight into what I was doing.... back then. But it should be a 'first principle' to do things differenlty to others given that the vast majority of 'others' lose. So anything done well ( some try and do things poorly due to unsound assumptions ) that results in you having your own unique data set to look at is a good start. Focusing on readiness and suitability for today's race is the next step.
An example of an unsound assumption, for some instances, is that a high place strike rate is a good thing. I'll give the result of a horse suitable for class 1 racing that has placed 5 out of 7 starts but all of those placings were in maiden class and it's running at 0% place for class 1 and above. Arguably the biggest class gap in racing is between maidens and class 1 so often such horses are a bad bet.
On average $$$ I think that the esteemed Mr Minnis used no less than 6 different ave prize money methods, of his own, to pin down suitability and competitiveness for 'today's' race. No doubt removing historical outlier results was one of them given crazy prize money in some races relative to the true class of the race.
ps Prefer other things now though to take advantage of 'variance'.
From: Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com> on behalf of Tony Moffat <tonymoffat at bigpond.com>
Sent: Sunday, 2 July 2017 8:26 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: Re: [AusRace] An Enigma
G’day Terry – is this what you do? You did say you use a very narrow subset of data but did not reveal what that is – don’t worry this will shrink to middle memory in a few more days.
Another aspect I have been looking at for a while is the API, the average prizemoney index. To move on, or away from the data that everybody can use I have been looking at this differently.
If the runners earnings are divided by the number of preparations it has gone through then a different, more focused, index can be found. This is ranked also. Its often just re-arranging the top 6 off API(normalised) but it has assisted in sorting selections for inclusion in bets. The number of preparations I use is derived from the first up statistics, then I add one for this preparation.
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