[AusRace] An Enigma

[terry styles]

Eh,


You mean you have not been doing this sort of thing the whole time?


Terry


________________________________
From: Racing <racing-bounces at ausrace.com> on behalf of Race Stats <RaceStats at hotmail.com>
Sent: Thursday, 29 June 2017 11:05 AM
To: AusRace Racing Discussion List
Subject: Re: [AusRace] An Enigma

Great thinking outside the box Tony!
Like the Unitab 100 pointers, it does not contain any allowances for recent form, just peak form.
Some of the 100 pointers, have woeful form and should not be ranked on top.
One must use more than one criteria or rating to be successful, as you are doing.
Be interested to see how this pans out for you without going into too much detail :)
Lindsay

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: Thursday, 29 June 2017 10:18 AM
To: racing at ausrace.com
Subject: [AusRace] An Enigma

An Enigma

I have been watching this for a few years, checking most days for its occurrence and it does recur frequently.
If the career figures of a runner are manipulated, de-constructed almost, then the findings re applied to the selection of runners often a new set of runners arrive, off the radar from other logical selection processes.
If a runners career performance figures are modified to place it where it is in this preparation then these runners can be considered candidates for selection.
An example Warwick Farm race 6 today.
10 Another Snappy has the career figures 31,7,2,3 so 31 starts, 7 wins, 2 seconds,3 thirds to earn a 38.7% place strike rate. That 38.7% is the figure everybody uses, it is representative of this runner endeavours on a race course, over several years.
I had thought that this runner has other information titbits you could use. Logically it can't call on its first up figures when it is 3 or more runs in this preparation. You could use the 2nd up figures as well, to really distill the horses potential with what is left. I haven't done that to any great degree.
For starters, it is not first up, it's first up statistics are displayed though so if you deducted those from its overall score would this provide us with enough right information on which to base a decision. It may promote it in ranking from 5th where it lingered earlier.
It's first up record is 5 starts for nothing, zero. So 31,7,2,3 becomes 26,7,2,3 which equates to 46.15% and Another Snappy is promoted, to 2nd, and is in the mix for inclusion in my betting.

10 Another Snappy won today paying 65.20 and 12.00. Using my rubbery algorithm I had priced it as $3.40 place.

Summary: obtain the career performance record for each runner, deduct the first up career performance record, calculate the percentage of what remains and rank that with the other runners.

This method selected the 2nd place getter also, who was ranked first.
3rd and 4th rank ran 10th and 11th.
I applied a further restriction to runners coming in for consideration. I used their assessed place % and deducted that from the new calculated place percentage, the figure obtained after the first up statistics are deducted. I then rank the resulting figures, the biggest calculated benefit gets recognition this way. Another Snappy had a 7.5% boost.
In Doomben race 7, six minutes later, the number one selection, and the favourite won, $2.40, and got a 25% boost In Sandown race 7, Kakanui failed to place In Ballina race 7, Neurum won $6.40 In Gawler race 8, Nishiazabu placed 2nd, rated at $5 to place it paid $8.80, Mighty Maher placed 2nd, rated at 3.40 it paid 3.50.
In Warwick Farm 7, 2nd ranking Cosmic Engine won paying $2.60. The flop was Big Cheer.
In Doomben race 8, winner Patronizing was third pick but needed a place dividend of $5 and was not selected. Top pick was Flaming Mogul who ran down the track.
In Sandown race 8, top pick Two Hats was not successful.
In Gawler race 9, there were insufficient starters for us, and place betting requires 8 runners. We picked 2nd and third with this method.
In Belmont race 6 top pick Pinsson, with a 35% boost placed and paid
$5.10 after rating at $2.50.
It may be ok to use both methods, meaning either method, the straight out top pick after modification or what I use, being the ranking of the boost the runner receives.
This developed out of a scheme to frank the favouritism of the short prices that appear regularly now, the perceived best runner in the field. This has been an ongoing study. It has been worthwhile.
Cheers
Tony



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