[AusRace] Sydney Cup re run

Race Stats RaceStats at hotmail.com
Sat Apr 22 09:46:13 AEST 2017


Hi Tony,
I found your post most interesting.
Do you have a formula for converting the figures to odds.
I'd assume if you just added up the figures and divided by the horse value and converted to percentage, it would somewhat be skewiff :)
Have you tested it over a number of races and found any trends?
Perhaps it just weeds out the no hopers.
Very interesting post which should generate some discussion on the list.
What I can add is that I think the average horse is a little less than 2.75 metres.
2.50 would be more accurate.
The rugs I buy for my horses are 6 foot 6 inches and go from the bottom of the rump to the almost to the top of the head near the poll.
That would make it just over two metres, but one has to allow for the extra length for coverage of the frame.
Haven't got the tape measure out because they won't stand still long enough, and the neck is not fully extended as per race conditions :P
Lindsay

-----Original Message-----
From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat
Sent: Friday, 21 April 2017 11:25 PM
To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List'
Subject: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run

This event was declared a no race when first contested on 8/4.
It is due to be contested on Saturday. Some of the original contenders front up for the event.
When first run there was $1150196 total invested on three totes and using the best of three tote dividends the following PERCENTAGES of the total holding occurred 8.4,Who Shot Thebarman 4.1,Libran 4.3,Almoonqith 8.1,Tally 10.4,Assign 2.8,Chance To Dance 32.5,Big Duke 3.2,Annus Mirabilis 1.0,Mister Impatience 12.6,Penglai Pavilion 3.7,Kinema 1.0,Pentathlon 4.1,Vengeur Masque 3.9,Polarisation Chance to Dance, Mister Impatience, Pentathlon, skew the the percentages a little(2.3%) because of their varying tote divs across the three boards.
Big Duke was the favourite across the board, then Penglai Pavilion and Assign vied for second favourite status, Tally was a solid 4th in the market. 
The horses mentioned had good solid backing. Tally had $100k+ invested.
Libran was friendless except for a sizeable bet early, about 3 hours early, but was a hope according to Victoria and a no hoper in NSW and Queensland.
Polarisation was unloved in Victoria but was hovering at 4th or 5th elsewhere for a long time, including the off. The Quiet Shortener perhaps.
The same argument can be made for Kinema although its lengths per second figure is poor and it has failed in wet/heavy. 
The runners from the first race and the numbers after their names represent their ranking 1,Who Shot Thebarman,6
2,Libran,9
3,Almoonqith,11
4,Tally,4
5,Assign,3
6,Chance To Dance,12
7,Big Duke,1
8,Annus Mirabilis,10
9,Mister Impatience,13
10,Penglai Pavilion, 2
11,Kinema,7
12,Pentathlon, 14
13,Vengeur Masque,8
14, Polarisation	,5
The runners from the first race and the numbers after their names represent their ranking across the three totes.
I am unsure if you can take an advantage from these figures, but it does show a different dynamic when looked at this way The three tote figures and the tote history are interesting for some.

The lengths per second figure is calculated from the race time and includes a voodoo value, the length of the horse, which is standardised at 2.75 metres. I can't support or verify that though.
The value is calculated by dividing the length of the race it contested by the 2.75 value, essentially you have the number of horse lengths from that. 
Then the final value is obtained by dividing the first calculated value by the time of the race.
The losing margin is then utilised to add to the time value the subject runner took to complete the course.

Polarisation ran a 3250 metre race won in 210.91 seconds. So,
3250/2.75/210.91 = 5.60 lengths a second.
It finished 25.8 lengths from the winner. 25.8/5.60 lengths = 4.60 seconds. You now have all the values needed to calculate a final value for this runner - 3250/2.75/(210.91+4.60)= 5.48 lengths a second. Average.

In its most recent run it covered 2920 in 188.92 seconds beaten 4.5 lengths. 
2920/2.75/188.92 = 5.62
Beaten lengths 4.5/5.62 = .800 second
2920/2.75/(188.92+.800) = 5.59 lengths a second.

In a 3219 hurdle Polarisation was beaten 3.8 lengths in 248.20
3219/2.75/(248.2+.806) = 3219/2.75/249 = 4.70 lengths a second.
Perhaps don't use this example, it was
A short priced favourite in this hurdle race too.

In all these examples Polarisation is carrying 60kg or more, 69 in the hurdle. It has 51.5 in the Cup.

When Big Duke won the 2600 Chairmans Hcp it rated 2600/2.75/172.49 =
5.48 and previously it scored at 5.55
Penglai Pavilion has a value of 5.44 for a 3600 metre run WSTB has a value of 5.54 Lasqueti Spirit has a value of 5.55 Tally has a value of 5.93 which appears good and he has weight off Chance to Dance has a value of 5.68, was <$9 last time and ridden hard then Libran has a value of 5.52 Boom Time has a value of 5.92 which is good, has weight off Harlem has a value of 5.56 but has good 1600 speed Annus has a value of 5.69, good for this distance Kinema has a value of around 5.48 which is low Rock On has a value of 5.76 Mister Impatience ha sa value of 5.68 Pentathlon has a value of 5.700. When this runner contested the MC in
2016
the winner rated at 5.80 and won by 10 lengths.
Self Sense has a value of 5.90

So Tally, Boom Time and Self Sense are the stars here, using this one element approach.

I make no prediction, I may have a place bet on Pentathlon

Look, it's not THE way but it is another way. Fast horses win races, sprint or distance, wet or dry.

Cheers

Tony






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