From RaceStats at hotmail.com Sun Apr 16 04:43:23 2017 From: RaceStats at hotmail.com (Race Stats) Date: Sat, 15 Apr 2017 18:43:23 +0000 Subject: [AusRace] Bet Selector Message-ID: Hi all, Any Bet Selector users know how I can import an old archive file (Cyberhorse). It unzipped it after I found it in a folder, but there doesn't seem to be an option in the BS menu to import it anymore! Lindsay -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From graeme33 at gmail.com Sun Apr 16 09:15:14 2017 From: graeme33 at gmail.com (Graeme) Date: Sun, 16 Apr 2017 09:15:14 +1000 Subject: [AusRace] Bet Selector In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: Hi Lindsay There are still Import functions in the menu of my version of BS (I think the latest and greatest) for old Cyberhorse functions. Regards Graeme On 16/04/2017 4:43 AM, Race Stats wrote: > > Hi all, > > Any Bet Selector users know how I can import an old archive file > (Cyberhorse). > > It unzipped it after I found it in a folder, but there doesn?t seem to > be an option in the BS menu to import it anymore! > > Lindsay > > > > _______________________________________________ > Racing mailing list > Racing at ausrace.com > http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From swallis at bigpond.com.au Mon Apr 17 10:47:32 2017 From: swallis at bigpond.com.au (swallis at bigpond.com.au) Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2017 10:47:32 +1000 Subject: [AusRace] Aap vs BestForm In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <244DEE8C75B64F08AC939C7109715474@Wallis> Does anyone have an opinion on whether Hong Kong meetings should be classified as Provincial or Metropolitan? Aap says M; BF says P. Similarly Aap has Wangaratta as C, while BF says P. Thoughts on this? While on Hong Kong, Has anyone done a mapping of their Class 1-6 Races? I.E. What would be the equivalent classes in Australia? Are there similar issues with any other country?s race classes? Steve W --- This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software. https://www.avast.com/antivirus -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From tonymoffat at bigpond.com Fri Apr 21 23:25:28 2017 From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat) Date: Fri, 21 Apr 2017 21:25:28 +0800 Subject: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run Message-ID: <000001d2baa2$be9f1290$3bdd37b0$@bigpond.com> This event was declared a no race when first contested on 8/4. It is due to be contested on Saturday. Some of the original contenders front up for the event. When first run there was $1150196 total invested on three totes and using the best of three tote dividends the following PERCENTAGES of the total holding occurred 8.4,Who Shot Thebarman 4.1,Libran 4.3,Almoonqith 8.1,Tally 10.4,Assign 2.8,Chance To Dance 32.5,Big Duke 3.2,Annus Mirabilis 1.0,Mister Impatience 12.6,Penglai Pavilion 3.7,Kinema 1.0,Pentathlon 4.1,Vengeur Masque 3.9,Polarisation Chance to Dance, Mister Impatience, Pentathlon, skew the the percentages a little(2.3%) because of their varying tote divs across the three boards. Big Duke was the favourite across the board, then Penglai Pavilion and Assign vied for second favourite status, Tally was a solid 4th in the market. The horses mentioned had good solid backing. Tally had $100k+ invested. Libran was friendless except for a sizeable bet early, about 3 hours early, but was a hope according to Victoria and a no hoper in NSW and Queensland. Polarisation was unloved in Victoria but was hovering at 4th or 5th elsewhere for a long time, including the off. The Quiet Shortener perhaps. The same argument can be made for Kinema although its lengths per second figure is poor and it has failed in wet/heavy. The runners from the first race and the numbers after their names represent their ranking 1,Who Shot Thebarman,6 2,Libran,9 3,Almoonqith,11 4,Tally,4 5,Assign,3 6,Chance To Dance,12 7,Big Duke,1 8,Annus Mirabilis,10 9,Mister Impatience,13 10,Penglai Pavilion, 2 11,Kinema,7 12,Pentathlon, 14 13,Vengeur Masque,8 14, Polarisation ,5 The runners from the first race and the numbers after their names represent their ranking across the three totes. I am unsure if you can take an advantage from these figures, but it does show a different dynamic when looked at this way The three tote figures and the tote history are interesting for some. The lengths per second figure is calculated from the race time and includes a voodoo value, the length of the horse, which is standardised at 2.75 metres. I can't support or verify that though. The value is calculated by dividing the length of the race it contested by the 2.75 value, essentially you have the number of horse lengths from that. Then the final value is obtained by dividing the first calculated value by the time of the race. The losing margin is then utilised to add to the time value the subject runner took to complete the course. Polarisation ran a 3250 metre race won in 210.91 seconds. So, 3250/2.75/210.91 = 5.60 lengths a second. It finished 25.8 lengths from the winner. 25.8/5.60 lengths = 4.60 seconds. You now have all the values needed to calculate a final value for this runner - 3250/2.75/(210.91+4.60)= 5.48 lengths a second. Average. In its most recent run it covered 2920 in 188.92 seconds beaten 4.5 lengths. 2920/2.75/188.92 = 5.62 Beaten lengths 4.5/5.62 = .800 second 2920/2.75/(188.92+.800) = 5.59 lengths a second. In a 3219 hurdle Polarisation was beaten 3.8 lengths in 248.20 3219/2.75/(248.2+.806) = 3219/2.75/249 = 4.70 lengths a second. Perhaps don't use this example, it was A short priced favourite in this hurdle race too. In all these examples Polarisation is carrying 60kg or more, 69 in the hurdle. It has 51.5 in the Cup. When Big Duke won the 2600 Chairmans Hcp it rated 2600/2.75/172.49 = 5.48 and previously it scored at 5.55 Penglai Pavilion has a value of 5.44 for a 3600 metre run WSTB has a value of 5.54 Lasqueti Spirit has a value of 5.55 Tally has a value of 5.93 which appears good and he has weight off Chance to Dance has a value of 5.68, was <$9 last time and ridden hard then Libran has a value of 5.52 Boom Time has a value of 5.92 which is good, has weight off Harlem has a value of 5.56 but has good 1600 speed Annus has a value of 5.69, good for this distance Kinema has a value of around 5.48 which is low Rock On has a value of 5.76 Mister Impatience ha sa value of 5.68 Pentathlon has a value of 5.700. When this runner contested the MC in 2016 the winner rated at 5.80 and won by 10 lengths. Self Sense has a value of 5.90 So Tally, Boom Time and Self Sense are the stars here, using this one element approach. I make no prediction, I may have a place bet on Pentathlon Look, it's not THE way but it is another way. Fast horses win races, sprint or distance, wet or dry. Cheers Tony --- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. http://www.avg.com From RaceStats at hotmail.com Sat Apr 22 09:46:13 2017 From: RaceStats at hotmail.com (Race Stats) Date: Fri, 21 Apr 2017 23:46:13 +0000 Subject: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run In-Reply-To: <000001d2baa2$be9f1290$3bdd37b0$@bigpond.com> References: <000001d2baa2$be9f1290$3bdd37b0$@bigpond.com> Message-ID: Hi Tony, I found your post most interesting. Do you have a formula for converting the figures to odds. I'd assume if you just added up the figures and divided by the horse value and converted to percentage, it would somewhat be skewiff :) Have you tested it over a number of races and found any trends? Perhaps it just weeds out the no hopers. Very interesting post which should generate some discussion on the list. What I can add is that I think the average horse is a little less than 2.75 metres. 2.50 would be more accurate. The rugs I buy for my horses are 6 foot 6 inches and go from the bottom of the rump to the almost to the top of the head near the poll. That would make it just over two metres, but one has to allow for the extra length for coverage of the frame. Haven't got the tape measure out because they won't stand still long enough, and the neck is not fully extended as per race conditions :P Lindsay -----Original Message----- From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat Sent: Friday, 21 April 2017 11:25 PM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' Subject: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run This event was declared a no race when first contested on 8/4. It is due to be contested on Saturday. Some of the original contenders front up for the event. When first run there was $1150196 total invested on three totes and using the best of three tote dividends the following PERCENTAGES of the total holding occurred 8.4,Who Shot Thebarman 4.1,Libran 4.3,Almoonqith 8.1,Tally 10.4,Assign 2.8,Chance To Dance 32.5,Big Duke 3.2,Annus Mirabilis 1.0,Mister Impatience 12.6,Penglai Pavilion 3.7,Kinema 1.0,Pentathlon 4.1,Vengeur Masque 3.9,Polarisation Chance to Dance, Mister Impatience, Pentathlon, skew the the percentages a little(2.3%) because of their varying tote divs across the three boards. Big Duke was the favourite across the board, then Penglai Pavilion and Assign vied for second favourite status, Tally was a solid 4th in the market. The horses mentioned had good solid backing. Tally had $100k+ invested. Libran was friendless except for a sizeable bet early, about 3 hours early, but was a hope according to Victoria and a no hoper in NSW and Queensland. Polarisation was unloved in Victoria but was hovering at 4th or 5th elsewhere for a long time, including the off. The Quiet Shortener perhaps. The same argument can be made for Kinema although its lengths per second figure is poor and it has failed in wet/heavy. The runners from the first race and the numbers after their names represent their ranking 1,Who Shot Thebarman,6 2,Libran,9 3,Almoonqith,11 4,Tally,4 5,Assign,3 6,Chance To Dance,12 7,Big Duke,1 8,Annus Mirabilis,10 9,Mister Impatience,13 10,Penglai Pavilion, 2 11,Kinema,7 12,Pentathlon, 14 13,Vengeur Masque,8 14, Polarisation ,5 The runners from the first race and the numbers after their names represent their ranking across the three totes. I am unsure if you can take an advantage from these figures, but it does show a different dynamic when looked at this way The three tote figures and the tote history are interesting for some. The lengths per second figure is calculated from the race time and includes a voodoo value, the length of the horse, which is standardised at 2.75 metres. I can't support or verify that though. The value is calculated by dividing the length of the race it contested by the 2.75 value, essentially you have the number of horse lengths from that. Then the final value is obtained by dividing the first calculated value by the time of the race. The losing margin is then utilised to add to the time value the subject runner took to complete the course. Polarisation ran a 3250 metre race won in 210.91 seconds. So, 3250/2.75/210.91 = 5.60 lengths a second. It finished 25.8 lengths from the winner. 25.8/5.60 lengths = 4.60 seconds. You now have all the values needed to calculate a final value for this runner - 3250/2.75/(210.91+4.60)= 5.48 lengths a second. Average. In its most recent run it covered 2920 in 188.92 seconds beaten 4.5 lengths. 2920/2.75/188.92 = 5.62 Beaten lengths 4.5/5.62 = .800 second 2920/2.75/(188.92+.800) = 5.59 lengths a second. In a 3219 hurdle Polarisation was beaten 3.8 lengths in 248.20 3219/2.75/(248.2+.806) = 3219/2.75/249 = 4.70 lengths a second. Perhaps don't use this example, it was A short priced favourite in this hurdle race too. In all these examples Polarisation is carrying 60kg or more, 69 in the hurdle. It has 51.5 in the Cup. When Big Duke won the 2600 Chairmans Hcp it rated 2600/2.75/172.49 = 5.48 and previously it scored at 5.55 Penglai Pavilion has a value of 5.44 for a 3600 metre run WSTB has a value of 5.54 Lasqueti Spirit has a value of 5.55 Tally has a value of 5.93 which appears good and he has weight off Chance to Dance has a value of 5.68, was <$9 last time and ridden hard then Libran has a value of 5.52 Boom Time has a value of 5.92 which is good, has weight off Harlem has a value of 5.56 but has good 1600 speed Annus has a value of 5.69, good for this distance Kinema has a value of around 5.48 which is low Rock On has a value of 5.76 Mister Impatience ha sa value of 5.68 Pentathlon has a value of 5.700. When this runner contested the MC in 2016 the winner rated at 5.80 and won by 10 lengths. Self Sense has a value of 5.90 So Tally, Boom Time and Self Sense are the stars here, using this one element approach. I make no prediction, I may have a place bet on Pentathlon Look, it's not THE way but it is another way. Fast horses win races, sprint or distance, wet or dry. Cheers Tony --- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. http://www.avg.com _______________________________________________ Racing mailing list Racing at ausrace.com http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com From mikemcb at southcom.com.au Sat Apr 22 11:10:47 2017 From: mikemcb at southcom.com.au (Mike McBain) Date: Sat, 22 Apr 2017 11:10:47 +1000 Subject: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run In-Reply-To: <000001d2baa2$be9f1290$3bdd37b0$@bigpond.com> References: <000001d2baa2$be9f1290$3bdd37b0$@bigpond.com> Message-ID: <001b01d2bb05$4651c400$d2f54c00$@com.au> Tony & Ausracers I generally consider race times to only be usable for short races so it will be interesting to consider your post for todays race. Some of my work is based around using secs/100metres and the following table is todays field when they ran first or second in the last 365 days. Todays winner should be in the top five horses and my Trifecta is a box of 6-3-4-1-2 Mike [CODE] RANDWICK 8 4 1651 Boom Time 6.021 RANDWICK 8 4 1651 Boom Time 6.065 RANDWICK 8 6 2111 Big Duke 6.085 RANDWICK 8 3 3771 Tally 6.106 RANDWICK 8 6 2111 Big Duke 6.107 RANDWICK 8 12 2753 Lasqueti Spirit 6.108 RANDWICK 8 3 3771 Tally 6.126 RANDWICK 8 4 1651 Boom Time 6.141 RANDWICK 8 6 2111 Big Duke 6.165 RANDWICK 8 5 3124 Chance To Dance 6.166 RANDWICK 8 4 1651 Boom Time 6.199 RANDWICK 8 15 E 2413 Rock On 6.204 RANDWICK 8 5 3124 Chance To Dance 6.214 RANDWICK 8 15 E 2413 Rock On 6.239 RANDWICK 8 4 1651 Boom Time 6.254 RANDWICK 8 11 7545 Kinema 6.275 RANDWICK 8 8 3510 Annus Mirabilis 6.285[/CODE] -----Original Message----- From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat Sent: Friday, 21 April 2017 11:25 PM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' Subject: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run This event was declared a no race when first contested on 8/4. It is due to be contested on Saturday. Some of the original contenders front up for the event. When first run there was $1150196 total invested on three totes and using the best of three tote dividends the following PERCENTAGES of the total holding occurred 8.4,Who Shot Thebarman 4.1,Libran 4.3,Almoonqith 8.1,Tally 10.4,Assign 2.8,Chance To Dance 32.5,Big Duke 3.2,Annus Mirabilis 1.0,Mister Impatience 12.6,Penglai Pavilion 3.7,Kinema 1.0,Pentathlon 4.1,Vengeur Masque 3.9,Polarisation Chance to Dance, Mister Impatience, Pentathlon, skew the the percentages a little(2.3%) because of their varying tote divs across the three boards. Big Duke was the favourite across the board, then Penglai Pavilion and Assign vied for second favourite status, Tally was a solid 4th in the market. The horses mentioned had good solid backing. Tally had $100k+ invested. Libran was friendless except for a sizeable bet early, about 3 hours early, but was a hope according to Victoria and a no hoper in NSW and Queensland. Polarisation was unloved in Victoria but was hovering at 4th or 5th elsewhere for a long time, including the off. The Quiet Shortener perhaps. The same argument can be made for Kinema although its lengths per second figure is poor and it has failed in wet/heavy. The runners from the first race and the numbers after their names represent their ranking 1,Who Shot Thebarman,6 2,Libran,9 3,Almoonqith,11 4,Tally,4 5,Assign,3 6,Chance To Dance,12 7,Big Duke,1 8,Annus Mirabilis,10 9,Mister Impatience,13 10,Penglai Pavilion, 2 11,Kinema,7 12,Pentathlon, 14 13,Vengeur Masque,8 14, Polarisation ,5 The runners from the first race and the numbers after their names represent their ranking across the three totes. I am unsure if you can take an advantage from these figures, but it does show a different dynamic when looked at this way The three tote figures and the tote history are interesting for some. The lengths per second figure is calculated from the race time and includes a voodoo value, the length of the horse, which is standardised at 2.75 metres. I can't support or verify that though. The value is calculated by dividing the length of the race it contested by the 2.75 value, essentially you have the number of horse lengths from that. Then the final value is obtained by dividing the first calculated value by the time of the race. The losing margin is then utilised to add to the time value the subject runner took to complete the course. Polarisation ran a 3250 metre race won in 210.91 seconds. So, 3250/2.75/210.91 = 5.60 lengths a second. It finished 25.8 lengths from the winner. 25.8/5.60 lengths = 4.60 seconds. You now have all the values needed to calculate a final value for this runner - 3250/2.75/(210.91+4.60)= 5.48 lengths a second. Average. In its most recent run it covered 2920 in 188.92 seconds beaten 4.5 lengths. 2920/2.75/188.92 = 5.62 Beaten lengths 4.5/5.62 = .800 second 2920/2.75/(188.92+.800) = 5.59 lengths a second. In a 3219 hurdle Polarisation was beaten 3.8 lengths in 248.20 3219/2.75/(248.2+.806) = 3219/2.75/249 = 4.70 lengths a second. Perhaps don't use this example, it was A short priced favourite in this hurdle race too. In all these examples Polarisation is carrying 60kg or more, 69 in the hurdle. It has 51.5 in the Cup. When Big Duke won the 2600 Chairmans Hcp it rated 2600/2.75/172.49 = 5.48 and previously it scored at 5.55 Penglai Pavilion has a value of 5.44 for a 3600 metre run WSTB has a value of 5.54 Lasqueti Spirit has a value of 5.55 Tally has a value of 5.93 which appears good and he has weight off Chance to Dance has a value of 5.68, was <$9 last time and ridden hard then Libran has a value of 5.52 Boom Time has a value of 5.92 which is good, has weight off Harlem has a value of 5.56 but has good 1600 speed Annus has a value of 5.69, good for this distance Kinema has a value of around 5.48 which is low Rock On has a value of 5.76 Mister Impatience ha sa value of 5.68 Pentathlon has a value of 5.700. When this runner contested the MC in 2016 the winner rated at 5.80 and won by 10 lengths. Self Sense has a value of 5.90 So Tally, Boom Time and Self Sense are the stars here, using this one element approach. I make no prediction, I may have a place bet on Pentathlon Look, it's not THE way but it is another way. Fast horses win races, sprint or distance, wet or dry. Cheers Tony --- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. http://www.avg.com _______________________________________________ Racing mailing list Racing at ausrace.com http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com From tonymoffat at bigpond.com Sat Apr 22 11:28:48 2017 From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat) Date: Sat, 22 Apr 2017 09:28:48 +0800 Subject: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run In-Reply-To: References: <000001d2baa2$be9f1290$3bdd37b0$@bigpond.com> Message-ID: <000001d2bb07$cae2ebc0$60a8c340$@bigpond.com> Hello Lindsay. No I have not priced the runners off this element. The calculated value is an indicator of race distance strength. The horse ability over the distance is exposed using this. It is an overall rating too. Using values calculated from the early part of the race it is possible to see the settling process, then mid race capabilities, then the later speeds and an overall speed. You get that from times also, but these values have a horse in them, so to me they are more meaningful. How accurate are the calculated lengths used. Nobody uses a finish photo and measures off that although they did and used to. Remember PictureForm? You can see a runner go from 4+ to 7+ for an overall 6 something value in a race. If you do similar sums for the final 600 or 400 metres then you get some strong values. Using the figures as they are, thus not adjusting for assessed finishing position/lengths, may mean you have removed the effect of the fan, the home turn, bad luck in running, bias and jockey decision. I assume the use of 2.75 metres to represent a horse length is a standard. It is a value from texts, Mordin is one although there are others who use 2.4m out to 2.75m. Until we get the length, and the weight, of a runner it will do. Tony -----Original Message----- From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race Stats Sent: Saturday, April 22, 2017 7:46 AM To: AusRace Racing Discussion List Subject: Re: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run Hi Tony, I found your post most interesting. Do you have a formula for converting the figures to odds. I'd assume if you just added up the figures and divided by the horse value and converted to percentage, it would somewhat be skewiff :) Have you tested it over a number of races and found any trends? Perhaps it just weeds out the no hopers. Very interesting post which should generate some discussion on the list. What I can add is that I think the average horse is a little less than 2.75 metres. 2.50 would be more accurate. The rugs I buy for my horses are 6 foot 6 inches and go from the bottom of the rump to the almost to the top of the head near the poll. That would make it just over two metres, but one has to allow for the extra length for coverage of the frame. Haven't got the tape measure out because they won't stand still long enough, and the neck is not fully extended as per race conditions :P Lindsay -----Original Message----- From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat Sent: Friday, 21 April 2017 11:25 PM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' Subject: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run snipped The lengths per second figure is calculated from the race time and includes a voodoo value, the length of the horse, which is standardised at 2.75 metres. I can't support or verify that though. The value is calculated by dividing the length of the race it contested by the 2.75 value, essentially you have the number of horse lengths from that. Then the final value is obtained by dividing the first calculated value by the time of the race. The losing margin is then utilised to add to the time value the subject runner took to complete the course. Polarisation ran a 3250 metre race won in 210.91 seconds. So, 3250/2.75/210.91 = 5.60 lengths a second. It finished 25.8 lengths from the winner. 25.8/5.60 lengths = 4.60 seconds. You now have all the values needed to calculate a final value for this runner - 3250/2.75/(210.91+4.60)= 5.48 lengths a second. Average. In its most recent run it covered 2920 in 188.92 seconds beaten 4.5 lengths. 2920/2.75/188.92 = 5.62 Beaten lengths 4.5/5.62 = .800 second 2920/2.75/(188.92+.800) = 5.59 lengths a second. In a 3219 hurdle Polarisation was beaten 3.8 lengths in 248.20 3219/2.75/(248.2+.806) = 3219/2.75/249 = 4.70 lengths a second. Perhaps don't use this example, it was A short priced favourite in this hurdle race too. In all these examples Polarisation is carrying 60kg or more, 69 in the hurdle. It has 51.5 in the Cup. When Big Duke won the 2600 Chairmans Hcp it rated 2600/2.75/172.49 = 5.48 and previously it scored at 5.55 Penglai Pavilion has a value of 5.44 for a 3600 metre run WSTB has a value of 5.54 Lasqueti Spirit has a value of 5.55 Tally has a value of 5.93 which appears good and he has weight off Chance to Dance has a value of 5.68, was <$9 last time and ridden hard then Libran has a value of 5.52 Boom Time has a value of 5.92 which is good, has weight off Harlem has a value of 5.56 but has good 1600 speed Annus has a value of 5.69, good for this distance Kinema has a value of around 5.48 which is low Rock On has a value of 5.76 Mister Impatience ha sa value of 5.68 Pentathlon has a value of 5.700. When this runner contested the MC in 2016 the winner rated at 5.80 and won by 10 lengths. Self Sense has a value of 5.90 So Tally, Boom Time and Self Sense are the stars here, using this one element approach. I make no prediction, I may have a place bet on Pentathlon Look, it's not THE way but it is another way. Fast horses win races, sprint or distance, wet or dry. Cheers Tony --- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. http://www.avg.com _______________________________________________ Racing mailing list Racing at ausrace.com http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com _______________________________________________ Racing mailing list Racing at ausrace.com http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com From tonymoffat at bigpond.com Sat Apr 22 12:39:03 2017 From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat) Date: Sat, 22 Apr 2017 10:39:03 +0800 Subject: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run In-Reply-To: <001b01d2bb05$4651c400$d2f54c00$@com.au> References: <000001d2baa2$be9f1290$3bdd37b0$@bigpond.com> <001b01d2bb05$4651c400$d2f54c00$@com.au> Message-ID: <000001d2bb11$9b64d340$d22e79c0$@bigpond.com> Thanks Mike You consider all runners though? There is some work, Knowles and others, showing that first, and second, can be treated as a one length win. Another says 2nd and third can be treated as a 2nd, beaten 1 length. In those cases, lengths have been devalued. Then they have values for other places, calculated, and out to 9th runner, beaten 7 lengths. Biggs has a table that shows average beaten lengths over a lot of races which is interesting. cheers -----Original Message----- From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Mike McBain Sent: Saturday, April 22, 2017 9:11 AM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' Subject: Re: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run Tony & Ausracers I generally consider race times to only be usable for short races so it will be interesting to consider your post for todays race. Some of my work is based around using secs/100metres and the following table is todays field when they ran first or second in the last 365 days. Todays winner should be in the top five horses and my Trifecta is a box of 6-3-4-1-2 Mike [CODE] RANDWICK 8 4 1651 Boom Time 6.021 RANDWICK 8 4 1651 Boom Time 6.065 RANDWICK 8 6 2111 Big Duke 6.085 RANDWICK 8 3 3771 Tally 6.106 RANDWICK 8 6 2111 Big Duke 6.107 RANDWICK 8 12 2753 Lasqueti Spirit 6.108 RANDWICK 8 3 3771 Tally 6.126 RANDWICK 8 4 1651 Boom Time 6.141 RANDWICK 8 6 2111 Big Duke 6.165 RANDWICK 8 5 3124 Chance To Dance 6.166 RANDWICK 8 4 1651 Boom Time 6.199 RANDWICK 8 15 E 2413 Rock On 6.204 RANDWICK 8 5 3124 Chance To Dance 6.214 RANDWICK 8 15 E 2413 Rock On 6.239 RANDWICK 8 4 1651 Boom Time 6.254 RANDWICK 8 11 7545 Kinema 6.275 RANDWICK 8 8 3510 Annus Mirabilis 6.285[/CODE] -----Original Message----- From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat Sent: Friday, 21 April 2017 11:25 PM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' Subject: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run This event was declared a no race when first contested on 8/4. It is due to be contested on Saturday. Some of the original contenders front up for the event. When first run there was $1150196 total invested on three totes and using the best of three tote dividends the following PERCENTAGES of the total holding occurred 8.4,Who Shot Thebarman 4.1,Libran 4.3,Almoonqith 8.1,Tally 10.4,Assign 2.8,Chance To Dance 32.5,Big Duke 3.2,Annus Mirabilis 1.0,Mister Impatience 12.6,Penglai Pavilion 3.7,Kinema 1.0,Pentathlon 4.1,Vengeur Masque 3.9,Polarisation Chance to Dance, Mister Impatience, Pentathlon, skew the the percentages a little(2.3%) because of their varying tote divs across the three boards. Big Duke was the favourite across the board, then Penglai Pavilion and Assign vied for second favourite status, Tally was a solid 4th in the market. The horses mentioned had good solid backing. Tally had $100k+ invested. Libran was friendless except for a sizeable bet early, about 3 hours early, but was a hope according to Victoria and a no hoper in NSW and Queensland. Polarisation was unloved in Victoria but was hovering at 4th or 5th elsewhere for a long time, including the off. The Quiet Shortener perhaps. The same argument can be made for Kinema although its lengths per second figure is poor and it has failed in wet/heavy. The runners from the first race and the numbers after their names represent their ranking 1,Who Shot Thebarman,6 2,Libran,9 3,Almoonqith,11 4,Tally,4 5,Assign,3 6,Chance To Dance,12 7,Big Duke,1 8,Annus Mirabilis,10 9,Mister Impatience,13 10,Penglai Pavilion, 2 11,Kinema,7 12,Pentathlon, 14 13,Vengeur Masque,8 14, Polarisation ,5 The runners from the first race and the numbers after their names represent their ranking across the three totes. I am unsure if you can take an advantage from these figures, but it does show a different dynamic when looked at this way The three tote figures and the tote history are interesting for some. The lengths per second figure is calculated from the race time and includes a voodoo value, the length of the horse, which is standardised at 2.75 metres. I can't support or verify that though. The value is calculated by dividing the length of the race it contested by the 2.75 value, essentially you have the number of horse lengths from that. Then the final value is obtained by dividing the first calculated value by the time of the race. The losing margin is then utilised to add to the time value the subject runner took to complete the course. Polarisation ran a 3250 metre race won in 210.91 seconds. So, 3250/2.75/210.91 = 5.60 lengths a second. It finished 25.8 lengths from the winner. 25.8/5.60 lengths = 4.60 seconds. You now have all the values needed to calculate a final value for this runner - 3250/2.75/(210.91+4.60)= 5.48 lengths a second. Average. In its most recent run it covered 2920 in 188.92 seconds beaten 4.5 lengths. 2920/2.75/188.92 = 5.62 Beaten lengths 4.5/5.62 = .800 second 2920/2.75/(188.92+.800) = 5.59 lengths a second. In a 3219 hurdle Polarisation was beaten 3.8 lengths in 248.20 3219/2.75/(248.2+.806) = 3219/2.75/249 = 4.70 lengths a second. Perhaps don't use this example, it was A short priced favourite in this hurdle race too. In all these examples Polarisation is carrying 60kg or more, 69 in the hurdle. It has 51.5 in the Cup. When Big Duke won the 2600 Chairmans Hcp it rated 2600/2.75/172.49 = 5.48 and previously it scored at 5.55 Penglai Pavilion has a value of 5.44 for a 3600 metre run WSTB has a value of 5.54 Lasqueti Spirit has a value of 5.55 Tally has a value of 5.93 which appears good and he has weight off Chance to Dance has a value of 5.68, was <$9 last time and ridden hard then Libran has a value of 5.52 Boom Time has a value of 5.92 which is good, has weight off Harlem has a value of 5.56 but has good 1600 speed Annus has a value of 5.69, good for this distance Kinema has a value of around 5.48 which is low Rock On has a value of 5.76 Mister Impatience ha sa value of 5.68 Pentathlon has a value of 5.700. When this runner contested the MC in 2016 the winner rated at 5.80 and won by 10 lengths. Self Sense has a value of 5.90 So Tally, Boom Time and Self Sense are the stars here, using this one element approach. I make no prediction, I may have a place bet on Pentathlon Look, it's not THE way but it is another way. Fast horses win races, sprint or distance, wet or dry. Cheers Tony --- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. http://www.avg.com _______________________________________________ Racing mailing list Racing at ausrace.com http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com _______________________________________________ Racing mailing list Racing at ausrace.com http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com From tonymoffat at bigpond.com Sat Apr 22 12:50:11 2017 From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat) Date: Sat, 22 Apr 2017 10:50:11 +0800 Subject: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run In-Reply-To: <000001d2bb07$cae2ebc0$60a8c340$@bigpond.com> References: <000001d2baa2$be9f1290$3bdd37b0$@bigpond.com> <000001d2bb07$cae2ebc0$60a8c340$@bigpond.com> Message-ID: <000001d2bb13$29475880$7bd60980$@bigpond.com> Further to this, the 2.75 metres length for a runner is left over from the 9 feet basis used in harness racing. The trots are tied to the nebulous mile rating score so they are lucky, they do have a horse in their equation. -----Original Message----- From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat Sent: Saturday, April 22, 2017 9:29 AM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' Subject: Re: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run Hello Lindsay. snipped. I assume the use of 2.75 metres to represent a horse length is a standard. It is a value from texts, Mordin is one although there are others who use 2.4m out to 2.75m. Until we get the length, and the weight, of a runner it will do. Tony -----Original Message----- From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race Stats Sent: Saturday, April 22, 2017 7:46 AM To: AusRace Racing Discussion List Subject: Re: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run Hi Tony, snipped What I can add is that I think the average horse is a little less than 2.75 metres. 2.50 would be more accurate. The rugs I buy for my horses are 6 foot 6 inches and go from the bottom of the rump to the almost to the top of the head near the poll. That would make it just over two metres, but one has to allow for the extra length for coverage of the frame. Haven't got the tape measure out because they won't stand still long enough, and the neck is not fully extended as per race conditions :P Lindsay -----Original Message----- From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat Sent: Friday, 21 April 2017 11:25 PM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' Subject: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run snipped The lengths per second figure is calculated from the race time and includes a voodoo value, the length of the horse, which is standardised at 2.75 metres. I can't support or verify that though. The value is calculated by dividing the length of the race it contested by the 2.75 value, essentially you have the number of horse lengths from that. Then the final value is obtained by dividing the first calculated value by the time of the race. The losing margin is then utilised to add to the time value the subject runner took to complete the course. Polarisation ran a 3250 metre race won in 210.91 seconds. So, 3250/2.75/210.91 = 5.60 lengths a second. It finished 25.8 lengths from the winner. 25.8/5.60 lengths = 4.60 seconds. You now have all the values needed to calculate a final value for this runner - 3250/2.75/(210.91+4.60)= 5.48 lengths a second. Average. In its most recent run it covered 2920 in 188.92 seconds beaten 4.5 lengths. 2920/2.75/188.92 = 5.62 Beaten lengths 4.5/5.62 = .800 second 2920/2.75/(188.92+.800) = 5.59 lengths a second. In a 3219 hurdle Polarisation was beaten 3.8 lengths in 248.20 3219/2.75/(248.2+.806) = 3219/2.75/249 = 4.70 lengths a second. Perhaps don't use this example, it was A short priced favourite in this hurdle race too. In all these examples Polarisation is carrying 60kg or more, 69 in the hurdle. It has 51.5 in the Cup. When Big Duke won the 2600 Chairmans Hcp it rated 2600/2.75/172.49 = 5.48 and previously it scored at 5.55 Penglai Pavilion has a value of 5.44 for a 3600 metre run WSTB has a value of 5.54 Lasqueti Spirit has a value of 5.55 Tally has a value of 5.93 which appears good and he has weight off Chance to Dance has a value of 5.68, was <$9 last time and ridden hard then Libran has a value of 5.52 Boom Time has a value of 5.92 which is good, has weight off Harlem has a value of 5.56 but has good 1600 speed Annus has a value of 5.69, good for this distance Kinema has a value of around 5.48 which is low Rock On has a value of 5.76 Mister Impatience ha sa value of 5.68 Pentathlon has a value of 5.700. When this runner contested the MC in 2016 the winner rated at 5.80 and won by 10 lengths. Self Sense has a value of 5.90 So Tally, Boom Time and Self Sense are the stars here, using this one element approach. I make no prediction, I may have a place bet on Pentathlon Look, it's not THE way but it is another way. Fast horses win races, sprint or distance, wet or dry. Cheers Tony --- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. http://www.avg.com _______________________________________________ Racing mailing list Racing at ausrace.com http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com _______________________________________________ Racing mailing list Racing at ausrace.com http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com _______________________________________________ Racing mailing list Racing at ausrace.com http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com From mikemcb at southcom.com.au Sat Apr 22 15:58:03 2017 From: mikemcb at southcom.com.au (Mike McBain) Date: Sat, 22 Apr 2017 15:58:03 +1000 Subject: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run In-Reply-To: <001b01d2bb05$4651c400$d2f54c00$@com.au> References: <000001d2baa2$be9f1290$3bdd37b0$@bigpond.com> <001b01d2bb05$4651c400$d2f54c00$@com.au> Message-ID: <000e01d2bb2d$6816c1d0$38444570$@com.au> Well done Tony you got the winner in your top 5 on past market and highlighted it on Rated Speed! snipped.... Todays winner should be in the top five horses and my Trifecta is a box of 6-3-4-1-2 Mike snipped..... The runners from the first race and the numbers after their names represent their ranking 1,Who Shot Thebarman,6 2,Libran,9 3,Almoonqith,11 4,Tally,4 5,Assign,3 6,Chance To Dance,12 7,Big Duke,1 8,Annus Mirabilis,10 9,Mister Impatience,13 10,Penglai Pavilion, 2 11,Kinema,7 12,Pentathlon, 14 13,Vengeur Masque,8 14, Polarisation ,5 snipped.... Polarisation ran a 3250 metre race won in 210.91 seconds. So, 3250/2.75/210.91 = 5.60 lengths a second. It finished 25.8 lengths from the winner. 25.8/5.60 lengths = 4.60 seconds. You now have all the values needed to calculate a final value for this runner - 3250/2.75/(210.91+4.60)= 5.48 lengths a second. Average. In its most recent run it covered 2920 in 188.92 seconds beaten 4.5 lengths. 2920/2.75/188.92 = 5.62 Beaten lengths 4.5/5.62 = .800 second 2920/2.75/(188.92+.800) = 5.59 lengths a second. snipped.... In all these examples Polarisation is carrying 60kg or more, 69 in the hurdle. It has 51.5 in the Cup. From tonymoffat at bigpond.com Sat Apr 22 19:52:04 2017 From: tonymoffat at bigpond.com (Tony Moffat) Date: Sat, 22 Apr 2017 17:52:04 +0800 Subject: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run In-Reply-To: <001b01d2bb05$4651c400$d2f54c00$@com.au> References: <000001d2baa2$be9f1290$3bdd37b0$@bigpond.com> <001b01d2bb05$4651c400$d2f54c00$@com.au> Message-ID: <000001d2bb4e$1994c8b0$4cbe5a10$@bigpond.com> Thanks Mike - I backed it. I did have a small place on Pentathlon I reckoned that Charnce to Darnce and Boom Time would figure. I got referred to your result email. It did not arrive here as expected. I have not been getting Ausrace posts as I went to the archives and found mails on there that I had not received and not read. Doug, is there a problem with my settings Next, a discussion on Eisler and 'Winning in the Nineties' Cheers Tony -----Original Message----- From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Mike McBain Sent: Saturday, April 22, 2017 9:11 AM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' Subject: Re: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run Tony & Ausracers I generally consider race times to only be usable for short races so it will be interesting to consider your post for todays race. Some of my work is based around using secs/100metres and the following table is todays field when they ran first or second in the last 365 days. Todays winner should be in the top five horses and my Trifecta is a box of 6-3-4-1-2 Mike [CODE] RANDWICK 8 4 1651 Boom Time 6.021 RANDWICK 8 4 1651 Boom Time 6.065 RANDWICK 8 6 2111 Big Duke 6.085 RANDWICK 8 3 3771 Tally 6.106 RANDWICK 8 6 2111 Big Duke 6.107 RANDWICK 8 12 2753 Lasqueti Spirit 6.108 RANDWICK 8 3 3771 Tally 6.126 RANDWICK 8 4 1651 Boom Time 6.141 RANDWICK 8 6 2111 Big Duke 6.165 RANDWICK 8 5 3124 Chance To Dance 6.166 RANDWICK 8 4 1651 Boom Time 6.199 RANDWICK 8 15 E 2413 Rock On 6.204 RANDWICK 8 5 3124 Chance To Dance 6.214 RANDWICK 8 15 E 2413 Rock On 6.239 RANDWICK 8 4 1651 Boom Time 6.254 RANDWICK 8 11 7545 Kinema 6.275 RANDWICK 8 8 3510 Annus Mirabilis 6.285[/CODE] -----Original Message----- From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat Sent: Friday, 21 April 2017 11:25 PM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' Subject: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run This event was declared a no race when first contested on 8/4. It is due to be contested on Saturday. Some of the original contenders front up for the event. When first run there was $1150196 total invested on three totes and using the best of three tote dividends the following PERCENTAGES of the total holding occurred 8.4,Who Shot Thebarman 4.1,Libran 4.3,Almoonqith 8.1,Tally 10.4,Assign 2.8,Chance To Dance 32.5,Big Duke 3.2,Annus Mirabilis 1.0,Mister Impatience 12.6,Penglai Pavilion 3.7,Kinema 1.0,Pentathlon 4.1,Vengeur Masque 3.9,Polarisation Chance to Dance, Mister Impatience, Pentathlon, skew the the percentages a little(2.3%) because of their varying tote divs across the three boards. Big Duke was the favourite across the board, then Penglai Pavilion and Assign vied for second favourite status, Tally was a solid 4th in the market. The horses mentioned had good solid backing. Tally had $100k+ invested. Libran was friendless except for a sizeable bet early, about 3 hours early, but was a hope according to Victoria and a no hoper in NSW and Queensland. Polarisation was unloved in Victoria but was hovering at 4th or 5th elsewhere for a long time, including the off. The Quiet Shortener perhaps. The same argument can be made for Kinema although its lengths per second figure is poor and it has failed in wet/heavy. The runners from the first race and the numbers after their names represent their ranking 1,Who Shot Thebarman,6 2,Libran,9 3,Almoonqith,11 4,Tally,4 5,Assign,3 6,Chance To Dance,12 7,Big Duke,1 8,Annus Mirabilis,10 9,Mister Impatience,13 10,Penglai Pavilion, 2 11,Kinema,7 12,Pentathlon, 14 13,Vengeur Masque,8 14, Polarisation ,5 The runners from the first race and the numbers after their names represent their ranking across the three totes. I am unsure if you can take an advantage from these figures, but it does show a different dynamic when looked at this way The three tote figures and the tote history are interesting for some. The lengths per second figure is calculated from the race time and includes a voodoo value, the length of the horse, which is standardised at 2.75 metres. I can't support or verify that though. The value is calculated by dividing the length of the race it contested by the 2.75 value, essentially you have the number of horse lengths from that. Then the final value is obtained by dividing the first calculated value by the time of the race. The losing margin is then utilised to add to the time value the subject runner took to complete the course. Polarisation ran a 3250 metre race won in 210.91 seconds. So, 3250/2.75/210.91 = 5.60 lengths a second. It finished 25.8 lengths from the winner. 25.8/5.60 lengths = 4.60 seconds. You now have all the values needed to calculate a final value for this runner - 3250/2.75/(210.91+4.60)= 5.48 lengths a second. Average. In its most recent run it covered 2920 in 188.92 seconds beaten 4.5 lengths. 2920/2.75/188.92 = 5.62 Beaten lengths 4.5/5.62 = .800 second 2920/2.75/(188.92+.800) = 5.59 lengths a second. In a 3219 hurdle Polarisation was beaten 3.8 lengths in 248.20 3219/2.75/(248.2+.806) = 3219/2.75/249 = 4.70 lengths a second. Perhaps don't use this example, it was A short priced favourite in this hurdle race too. In all these examples Polarisation is carrying 60kg or more, 69 in the hurdle. It has 51.5 in the Cup. When Big Duke won the 2600 Chairmans Hcp it rated 2600/2.75/172.49 = 5.48 and previously it scored at 5.55 Penglai Pavilion has a value of 5.44 for a 3600 metre run WSTB has a value of 5.54 Lasqueti Spirit has a value of 5.55 Tally has a value of 5.93 which appears good and he has weight off Chance to Dance has a value of 5.68, was <$9 last time and ridden hard then Libran has a value of 5.52 Boom Time has a value of 5.92 which is good, has weight off Harlem has a value of 5.56 but has good 1600 speed Annus has a value of 5.69, good for this distance Kinema has a value of around 5.48 which is low Rock On has a value of 5.76 Mister Impatience ha sa value of 5.68 Pentathlon has a value of 5.700. When this runner contested the MC in 2016 the winner rated at 5.80 and won by 10 lengths. Self Sense has a value of 5.90 So Tally, Boom Time and Self Sense are the stars here, using this one element approach. I make no prediction, I may have a place bet on Pentathlon Look, it's not THE way but it is another way. Fast horses win races, sprint or distance, wet or dry. Cheers Tony --- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. http://www.avg.com _______________________________________________ Racing mailing list Racing at ausrace.com http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com _______________________________________________ Racing mailing list Racing at ausrace.com http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com From nick.aubrey at twonix.com Sun Apr 23 12:53:20 2017 From: nick.aubrey at twonix.com (Nick at Twonix) Date: Sun, 23 Apr 2017 12:53:20 +1000 Subject: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run In-Reply-To: <000001d2bb07$cae2ebc0$60a8c340$@bigpond.com> References: <000001d2baa2$be9f1290$3bdd37b0$@bigpond.com> <000001d2bb07$cae2ebc0$60a8c340$@bigpond.com> Message-ID: <002301d2bbdc$c4fb79e0$4ef26da0$@twonix.com> Hi All, The market once again proved the best guide with the 3 placegetters being in the Top 5 of the betting. Below is a snapshot from my Race results website which I have just updated for yesterday's races. I have also extended the results back to Sept 2012 and now have over 1 million horse race results spanning the last 6 years that you can presently interrogate for FREE using my Power BI portal. And you will get a response back from your query within a couple of seconds. Great stuff from the Microsoft Power BI team. Cheers, AN Nick Aubrey Tel: +61 (2) 9011 5264 | Mobile: 0403 496 971| Email: nick at nickaubey.com Punt For Profit ? Click below. It's a Not-For-Loss organistion ! -----Original Message----- From: Racing [mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat Sent: Saturday, 22 April 2017 11:29 AM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' Subject: Re: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run Hello Lindsay. No I have not priced the runners off this element. The calculated value is an indicator of race distance strength. The horse ability over the distance is exposed using this. It is an overall rating too. Using values calculated from the early part of the race it is possible to see the settling process, then mid race capabilities, then the later speeds and an overall speed. You get that from times also, but these values have a horse in them, so to me they are more meaningful. How accurate are the calculated lengths used. Nobody uses a finish photo and measures off that although they did and used to. Remember PictureForm? You can see a runner go from 4+ to 7+ for an overall 6 something value in a race. If you do similar sums for the final 600 or 400 metres then you get some strong values. Using the figures as they are, thus not adjusting for assessed finishing position/lengths, may mean you have removed the effect of the fan, the home turn, bad luck in running, bias and jockey decision. I assume the use of 2.75 metres to represent a horse length is a standard. It is a value from texts, Mordin is one although there are others who use 2.4m out to 2.75m. Until we get the length, and the weight, of a runner it will do. Tony -----Original Message----- From: Racing [ mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Race Stats Sent: Saturday, April 22, 2017 7:46 AM To: AusRace Racing Discussion List < racing at ausrace.com> Subject: Re: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run Hi Tony, I found your post most interesting. Do you have a formula for converting the figures to odds. I'd assume if you just added up the figures and divided by the horse value and converted to percentage, it would somewhat be skewiff :) Have you tested it over a number of races and found any trends? Perhaps it just weeds out the no hopers. Very interesting post which should generate some discussion on the list. What I can add is that I think the average horse is a little less than 2.75 metres. 2.50 would be more accurate. The rugs I buy for my horses are 6 foot 6 inches and go from the bottom of the rump to the almost to the top of the head near the poll. That would make it just over two metres, but one has to allow for the extra length for coverage of the frame. Haven't got the tape measure out because they won't stand still long enough, and the neck is not fully extended as per race conditions :P Lindsay -----Original Message----- From: Racing [ mailto:racing-bounces at ausrace.com] On Behalf Of Tony Moffat Sent: Friday, 21 April 2017 11:25 PM To: 'AusRace Racing Discussion List' Subject: [AusRace] Sydney Cup re run snipped The lengths per second figure is calculated from the race time and includes a voodoo value, the length of the horse, which is standardised at 2.75 metres. I can't support or verify that though. The value is calculated by dividing the length of the race it contested by the 2.75 value, essentially you have the number of horse lengths from that. Then the final value is obtained by dividing the first calculated value by the time of the race. The losing margin is then utilised to add to the time value the subject runner took to complete the course. Polarisation ran a 3250 metre race won in 210.91 seconds. So, 3250/2.75/210.91 = 5.60 lengths a second. It finished 25.8 lengths from the winner. 25.8/5.60 lengths = 4.60 seconds. You now have all the values needed to calculate a final value for this runner - 3250/2.75/(210.91+4.60)= 5.48 lengths a second. Average. In its most recent run it covered 2920 in 188.92 seconds beaten 4.5 lengths. 2920/2.75/188.92 = 5.62 Beaten lengths 4.5/5.62 = .800 second 2920/2.75/(188.92+.800) = 5.59 lengths a second. In a 3219 hurdle Polarisation was beaten 3.8 lengths in 248.20 3219/2.75/(248.2+.806) = 3219/2.75/249 = 4.70 lengths a second. Perhaps don't use this example, it was A short priced favourite in this hurdle race too. In all these examples Polarisation is carrying 60kg or more, 69 in the hurdle. It has 51.5 in the Cup. When Big Duke won the 2600 Chairmans Hcp it rated 2600/2.75/172.49 = 5.48 and previously it scored at 5.55 Penglai Pavilion has a value of 5.44 for a 3600 metre run WSTB has a value of 5.54 Lasqueti Spirit has a value of 5.55 Tally has a value of 5.93 which appears good and he has weight off Chance to Dance has a value of 5.68, was <$9 last time and ridden hard then Libran has a value of 5.52 Boom Time has a value of 5.92 which is good, has weight off Harlem has a value of 5.56 but has good 1600 speed Annus has a value of 5.69, good for this distance Kinema has a value of around 5.48 which is low Rock On has a value of 5.76 Mister Impatience ha sa value of 5.68 Pentathlon has a value of 5.700. When this runner contested the MC in 2016 the winner rated at 5.80 and won by 10 lengths. Self Sense has a value of 5.90 So Tally, Boom Time and Self Sense are the stars here, using this one element approach. I make no prediction, I may have a place bet on Pentathlon Look, it's not THE way but it is another way. Fast horses win races, sprint or distance, wet or dry. Cheers Tony --- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. http://www.avg.com _______________________________________________ Racing mailing list Racing at ausrace.com http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com _______________________________________________ Racing mailing list Racing at ausrace.com http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com _______________________________________________ Racing mailing list Racing at ausrace.com http://ausrace.com/mailman/listinfo/racing_ausrace.com -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image003.png Type: image/png Size: 12651 bytes Desc: not available URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: image004.png Type: image/png Size: 304563 bytes Desc: not available URL: