[AusRace] anti gavity weights

[r]

anyways, lets drop the weights

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "RaceCensus" <RaceStats at hotmail.com>
To: "AusRace Mailing List" <ausrace at ausrace.com>
Sent: Sunday, March 08, 2009 9:35 PM
Subject: Re: [AusRace] anti gavity weights


> Extra weight is not the argument, it's how much extra weight, and how the
> weight scale is ineffective.
>
> Lindsay.
> ----- Original Message ----- 
> From: "r" <speedpcs at bigpond.net.au>
> To: "AusRace Mailing List" <ausrace at ausrace.com>
> Sent: Sunday, March 08, 2009 7:59 PM
> Subject: Re: [AusRace] anti gavity weights
>
>
>> Yes, i have no problems with whatever system anyone wants to apply.
>>
>> They may even state they dont think weights are important, or disregard
>> them.
>>
>> But to say exrta weight does not slow down a horse is just plain wrong,
>> and
>> misleading. That is the only thing im arguing. Extra weight certainly
>> slows
>> down a horse, although horses can be better off at the weights due to
>> dropping in class.  Extra weight means a horse is likely to run slower,
>> but
>> finish the race in a more forward position due to the race having slower
>> horses, due to the class drop.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> ----- Original Message ----- 
>> From: "scott mcdonagh" <actionratings at yahoo.com.au>
>> To: "AusRace Mailing List" <ausrace at ausrace.com>
>> Sent: Sunday, March 08, 2009 7:46 PM
>> Subject: Re: [AusRace] anti gavity weights
>>
>>
>> r,
>>
>> Point taken, totally agree number #2 , applying a 53kg across the board. 
>> I
>> think when Lindsay say's he uses a mechanical system , my guess he is
>> filtering for " Horse rating needed to win -Nett from base rating" up
>> higher
>> in the weight's as this can be conducive to a better horse and in-form 
>> and
>> applying a Price Band to show confidence on the day, and from those
>> result's
>> finds horse's going up in weight and supported still win more race's.
>> That's
>> fair enough but you must in the long run like he say's obtain a price 
>> that
>> in the long term will keep you above the positive expectation ratio.
>> Regards,
>> actionratings
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> ________________________________
>> From: r <speedpcs at bigpond.net.au>
>> To: AusRace Mailing List <ausrace at ausrace.com>
>> Sent: Sunday, 8 March, 2009 7:14:12 PM
>> Subject: Re: [AusRace] anti gavity weights
>>
>> action ratings, I think maybe your missing the point, or im missing 
>> yours.
>>
>> When ratings races as if weight has no effect it makes no difference what
>> weight you want to give all the horses, as long as it is the same weight,
>> so
>> it does not affect the ratings, if you apply each horse 55kgs then
>> whatever
>> weight they really carried does not affect rating, thus you have
>> eliminated
>> weights from your ratings. (make it 53 if you wish, no difference)
>>
>> Plus you would not allow for apprentices as according to the non weights
>> rating theory, thre alowance makes no difference anyways.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> ----- Original Message ----- 
>> From: "scott mcdonagh" <actionratings at yahoo.com.au>
>> To: "AusRace Mailing List" <ausrace at ausrace.com>
>> Sent: Sunday, March 08, 2009 6:30 PM
>> Subject: Re: [AusRace] Hot Danish -WEIGHTS!
>>
>>
>> r,
>>
>> Wouldn't it be better to rate all runner's in all race's on the 53kg
>> limit?
>> also in set weight race's , then it's discretionary for you to adjust for
>> apprentice allowance's and in Group & WFA races. With 3yo race's if your
>> race class rating is sound then when they move around 3yo C6- Open-
>> Listed -
>> Group they will be handicapped appropriately . I have noticed in the past
>> they can go from a Open to Listed + and go up in weight because of the 
>> set
>> weight's structure but if applying the 55kg across the board when
>> handicapping after the race their missing 2kg in jumping up in class, 
>> then
>> when returning to lower class this can be factored in. It work's vis 
>> versa
>> for the higher class horse's when summertime's they come down in Weight
>> when
>> rising in class and have a distinct weight advantage on past form. I know
>> the 3yo handicapping structure is seasonally adjusted for set weight &
>> group
>> races but there is opportunity there because I have
>> personally exploited it.
>>
>>
>>
>> Regards,
>> actionratings
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> ________________________________
>> From: r <speedpcs at bigpond.net.au>
>> To: AusRace Mailing List <ausrace at ausrace.com>
>> Sent: Saturday, 7 March, 2009 3:57:52 AM
>> Subject: Re: [AusRace] Hot Danish -WEIGHTS!
>>
>> I know some people dont want to accept the truth as it means they have
>> been
>> wrong all this time BUT
>>
>> 3 steps will easily prove that weight not only matters, it is actualy
>> under
>> estimated by punters, as well weighted runners start at value odds.
>>
>> #1. Rate all horses as if they are carrying 55kgs (thus taking away the
>> effect of more or less weight for all horses)
>>
>> #2. Rate horses in normal fashion including weights carried.
>>
>> #3. Compare the leading horses in each set, and there results.
>>
>> You will quickly see that the leading horses from the 2nd set return 
>> both,
>> better preformances, and a better return on outlay.
>>
>> You will soon find out why the non weights theory that came out of the 
>> USA
>> 20 years ago went no where, except to the gulliable.
>>
>> Sometimes its smarter just to admit your wrong, as your only fooling
>> yourself.
>>
>>
>>
>>
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