A Punting Journey Part 1 continued

by Michael O'Shaunessy Duffy (email mdu59851 at bigpond.net.au )

The Winning (and losing) Frame of Mind

I recently mentioned that pesky human condition known as " The Losing Frame of Mind ". It isn't restricted to the realms of Punting by any means it raises its ugly head throughout life itself, but it is it's negative effect on Punters that I am interested in here, and more importantly, possible ways to nullify its destructive effects.

I thought some may find it helpful if I elaborated on the subject as I see it and outline the methods I have used in my Gambling and Punting life to nullify its effects .

You are welcome to agree or disagree with what I have to say, but at least , some of you may think about the points raised .

Take what you like from these thoughts and use them, or simply ignore them if you don't find them relevant to your personal journey .

The antithesis to these comments is of course, "The Winning Frame of Mind "

It is only fair that I state that these ideas are not all originally mine I have simply adapted them and added my own spin to suit myself and Racing in Australia .

At one time, during my Blackjack era, I was priveleged to attend a workshop conducted by Prof. Igor Kuzytsin, who was at the time Professor of Gambling Studies at the Uni of Ontario in Canada .

Igor was also an expert Blackjack player in his own right and was a dedicated "horse player", as he put it .

You will have gathered by now that I place a great deal of importance on ' The Psychology of Gambling ' . We know that less than 5 punters in every 100 win consistently at the punt in Australia (Booze Allen 1998) .

The paradox is that although most punter's are consistent losers . they continue to punt over and over again .

It is safe therefore to assume that they are punting for psychological reasons, rather than for the profit motive . Igor believed that punting or gambling in general is nothing more than ' adult play '.

Winning is secondary.

We hope to win money, but what we really enjoy is the action . Physically, Punting can speed up our heart rate, quicken our breathing, and increase muscle tension . Emotionally, Punting can provide a roller coaster of hope, excitement, euphoria or anxiety, disappointment, frustration, sorrow, or regret.

Starting to sound familiar?

If you want to punt and win consistently, I believe that you need to be aware of the strong attraction that your psyche has to this ' Losing Frame of Mind'.

By realising how your physical and emotional needs are being satiated, you can better control your actions.

Know your enemy! Mostly your most formidable enemy is yourself . With Igor's help, I have assembled 10 points that I believe are essential to the profit driven punter to enable him to nullify this "Losing Frame Of Mind".

THE WINNING FRAME OF MIND

Have as complete a knowledge of the Racing and Punting caper as is possible.

You can't hope to win at something you don't understand . All you can hope for in any one lifetime, is a continually improving knowledge, you can never know it all, but never lose the thirst to know and understand more.

This knowledge is readily available to everyone with minimal computer skills, it is harder without making use of the computer, but still possible most of us can at least read.

We know and accept that the more we know about our profession or trade, chess, bridge, golf, tennis etc etc , the more competent and capable we are of performing the necessary tasks. Some of us attend Universities, Tafe Colleges, Trade Schools for years, simply to obtain the basic knowledge necessary to carry out these tasks and establish a sound foundation on which to build further .

We also know that we can learn any amount of theory about the above pursuits , but until we take on the real world and put this theory into action, time and time again ......our competence will be incomplete .

Why should it be any different with Racing and Punting ??

How can we hope to build a solid base of wisdom regarding our craft if we don't know the basics and how can we become competent without repeatedly putting these basics into practice ? How do we know what's important and what's not ? We can't of course that will come with experience .

We dont have to have a detailed mathematical knowledge, we don't even have to be overly smart but what we do need though, is a desire to learn .

I believe that we basically need a working knowledge of Probability Theory, Kelly Criterion, Risk of Ruin, Odds and their Book Percentages and the ability to "make a book". A Knowledge of Class Handicapping for each Individual State etc.

That's the bad news (-:

The good news is:

(a) that you dont have to have more than a 'basic' knowledge of any of the above and when I say basic I mean basic.
(b) that you dont have to know it all at once
(c) that everything you might want to know is readily availailable via the internet and in books in easily understood terms .
(d) all that is required is a willingness to start building on whatever knowledge you have and the belief that you will never know it all .

Keep detailed and accurate records

To me, this is the simplest and ultimately most enjoyable tasks connected with punting, the byword here in my view is "accurate" .

The amount of detail is a personal choice, the important guideline for me is to only keep those details that I am going to use. There is no use in 'efficiently' keeping records if you are never going to make them 'effective' by using them to advantage .

Many of you have had a chance to study my running performance spreadsheet, I am in no way suggesting that this would suit all or any of you . I'm happy to send a sample copy on request .

It suits me, as

(a) I need an accurate record of winning and losing bets for a possible future desk audit by the ATO. These records are backed up by bookmaker's statements for every transaction showing amount invested and amount returned.
(c) it provides the base data for further analysis that I maintain for my own personal knowledge (d) I use an excel spreadsheet as I am familiar with them and find the sort and formulae functions suit me .

The most pertinent factor of "accurate" is that ALL winning and losing bets are recorded, otherwise the records are of no more use than they would be if we relied on memory, as many of us do (-:

A funny thing about the human memory whether we tend to have easy recall or not, we all seem to have very selective memories. I know I do, we find it a lot easier to recall pleasant memories such as winning days than we do less pleasant days such as losing ones .

Why is that I wonder? I dont know, and I dont care very much, I just accept it as 'a given" and protect myself against such irrational thinking by recording it in black and white. It certainly focuses the mind during the inevitable losing streaks .

3) Self-knowledge.

Well, I guess this subject blends in partly to the one above .

You must know yourself as a gambler if you are to win consistently, we all know that we are invariably good parents, good in bed, good husbands, wives and partners, good human beings, good to our pets, good Sons and Daughters etc.

These characteristics have absolutely no bearing on what sort of gambler we are.

Punters are just as likely to haggle the salesman to the last dollar when buying a new washing machine on Saturday morning then go off and put $200 on a horse that afternoon, because he backed it into 2nd last outing irrespective of the fact that this race is over 300m further, the horse is rising in class, he has drawn barrier 16 at the 1400m start at Caulfield where he is having his first start ever and that Ollie has been replaced by a 3kg claiming apprentice!

Why is this so?

Gambling is so psychologically powerful that it can totally transform the way you think. Unfortunately, there is no short or easy way to gain this type of self-knowledge the only way to gain it is to start punting and pay attention to your feelings - record them if necessary .

Do I become depressed after a losing bet and do I feel overly elated after a winning bet?

Of course it's OK to experience both of these emotions when appropriate, but do we dwell on the losses or overly celebrate a single win ?

Do we chase our losses (the evilness of the 'get-out' bet) can we quit when winning (I'm hot I can't quit now)? Do we let others around us sway our thinking, do we resent others winning when we are losing ? The symptoms are many and all threaten our balanced judgement .

By identifying them and acknowledging them, we are well on the way to controlling them .

4) Independence of thought and action.

Pittsburg Phil (George E Smith) once stated "A man who has not an opinion of his own has not one chance in a million of making money wagering on racehorses ".

I would put it into slightly different words, but the general thrust would be the same .

Having "independence of thought and action" is not always easy .....it takes courage ...confidence...an ability to listen to other's views, think about them, and say NO to them if necessary .

The courage comes from within and you can build on what you have over time, the confidence comes from knowledge such as we discussed in (1) above the more you know about your subject, the easier it is to form your own opinion and not rely on other people's, part of 'courage' means having the confidence to say "I am wrong" when you have gone with an opinion and it is clearly not working out, there is no shame in making a mistake. There is a great deal of harmful consequence from refusing to acknowledge your error, once you have acknowledged your error, you are a step closer to finding the right answer .

A good illustration of the dangers of not being in full independent control of your thoughts and actions is our willingness to adopt a new approach or Strategy, when we are not sure whether the old one is hopelessly broke, or just a little bent and battered, we have all been guilty of this, give your new strategy time to work, and if you decide to make changes, make them in small increments that you can measure, not in wholesale shifts, in other words BUILD your own Strategy .

That's what I did and it worked for me, but it took a lot of patience .

My Cygnet Strategy today is not all that different to what it was in 1989 in principle and purpose, but it is quite a bit different in methodology and it will be different again in 10 years time ....if it isn't, I can guarantee I'll be going backwards .

When faced with a new idea from a source outside my own analysis or research , I usually deal with it one of two ways. After due consideration, if I think it has merit, I plagiarise it and fine tune it to fit into the other aspects of my overall Strategy or I dismiss it .

I have often referred to a punting "comfort level", we all have different comfort levels based largely on our experience and confidence level, that's confidence in our knowledge and confidence in our abilty .

My "comfort level" is a great deal higher today than it was 18 years ago, because I have more confidence and more experience. Comfort level is also largely influenced by having an adequate punting bank (working capital) , but that's another subject entirely .

There are 6 more Winning points to consider at a later date .

5 - Mental readiness.
6 - Physical readiness.
7 - A basic knowledge of Probabilty Theory or the Relationship of Odds to real Probability [ doug added see Odds and Probability
8 - Self Control
9 - A short and long term game plan .
10 - Experience, or what I refer to as ARW (Accumulated Racing Wisdom).

As I mentioned above, this newsletter will continue to arrive over the coming weeks in 5 parts with racing and therefore, my travelling reduced, I have more time on my hands over the next 5 weeks or so until Christmas.

Because there is no magic formula there are no quick answers, so I won't be rushed.

Stay along for the ride if you wish you're welcome .

If not, each installment will be headed as above, so you are welcome to to delete on sight .

Questions and comments are welcome .

Regards,

Duff

Michael O'Shaunessy Duffy
Cygnet Racing Foundation
Cygnet Thoroughbred Management
Chiang Mai Bloodstock Syndications
63 Vine St  Magill      SA  5072

See the AusRace Archives for lots more interesting stuff.

Photo By Bronwen Healy