Principles & Techniques of Handicapping
by Mark McGrath
Hi AusRacers,
The following is a two part explanation of handicapping principles and techniques that I have acquired over the last 7 years working as a member of the AJC (Australaian Jockey Club) Handicapping Panel. I have gone back to basics and written this for someone who is a racing beginner so I apologize to all those AusRacers who are accomplished form students.
HANDICAPPING PRINCIPLES
Prime Objectives & Outcomes
The object of the handicapper is to produce balanced and competitive
race fields. Achieving this objective will produce two prime outcomes
that assist the racing industry:
1 The potential for betting turnover growth will be maximised;
2 An environment for owners and trainers with relatively inferior
racing stock to remain competitive will be created.
Both these outcomes are equally important to the well being of
the racing industry; betting turnover funds the industry so punters
must be presented with an attractive betting product and owners
& trainers provide the product for punters to bet on so there
must be an incentive to keep these players in the game.
Historical Background
The practice of handicapping evolved from the dissatisfaction
of the racing public with the set weights based racing that dominated
in the 19th century. Back in the first half of the 19th century,
weight for age based racing almost exclusively made up the racing
calendar in both the UK and Australia.
But as racing become more accessible to the punting masses thereby
grew the demand for more interesting and evenly balanced contests.
One way to achieve this was to allot racing weights according
to the merit of past performances rather than just the age and
sex of each individual competitor.
So the first stage of the evolutionary process of handicapping
was the introduction of a mechanical system of set weights and
penalties based on races won. This type of weighting achieved
the aim of having superior performed horses conceding weight to
lesser performed rivals in order to create more evenly balanced
contests. But as any good form analyst knows this system of weighting
will rarely produce weight differences that are commensurate the
with the variance in ability between the best and worst competitors
in a race.
In response to this flaw raceclubs started to employ an official
to determine appropriate weights for nominators based on the quality
of past performances. Because this process was judgmental it could
not be described as a set weights and penalties race, and as the
clear intent of this race was to employ weight handicaps to superior
performed horses this race acquired the name 'handicap' and the
official who determined these weights the 'handicapper'.
So handicapping can be viewed as the offspring of set weights
and penalties based racing, a sort of set weights with discretionary
penalties and allowances type system of weighting.
Principles
There are two essential principles to the handicapping process:
1 Horses that race successfully and defeat their counterparts
meet them on less favorable weight terms as a result of this contest;
2 The handicap weight of horses that nominate in races of a different
class or grade of class change according to the following simple
concept:
UP IN CLASS : DOWN IN WEIGHT
DOWN IN CLASS: UP IN WEIGHT
It's important to understand the difference between the terms
class and grade. When I use the term 'class' I am referring to
the actual type of handicap race, as in the title of the race
e.g. 'Class 6 Hcp', whereas when I use the term 'grade' I am referring
the actual strength or quality of nominations for a particular
class of race. For example, a Class 6 Hcp at Randwick will be
invariably be of a stronger grade than one at a country track
like Dubbo.
Therefore it can be expected that horses will receive more weight
in a country handicap than a metropolitan handicap race of the
same class. This may be obvious to many but it leads us into heart
of handicapping...the how and why of horses receiving different
weights in different races.
Handicapping Techniques
All handicapping techniques are derived from the two principles
listed above. The way these principles are applied can be called
the handicapping policy. Actual handicapping policy varies from
one racing authority to another but is conceptually the same only
the degree of application varies.
There are two basic elements that produce a horses' final handicap
weight:
1 A weight penalty/allowance adjustment for each performance and;
2 Scaling applied to the whole field based on the grade of the
nominations.
WEIGHT PENALTY/ALLOWANCE ADJUSTMENTS
Most handicapping panels have a schedule of weight penalties and
allowances that are applied to each horse performance. This schedule
acts as a guideline for handicappers to operate with so as to
ensure consistency between handicappers and the horses they handicap.
It reflects the typical range of weight adjustment applied to
each horse performance.
I must stress that it is a guide-line only and not a strict
prescription on how a horse's handicap rating is adjusted for
each performance. Because the quality of horse performances can
vary quite widely so too does the handicappers adjustments to
their rating. If there was no discretionary element in this adjustment
process then handicapping would be reduced back to its natural
ancestor, the set weights and penalty type race.
There are 3 primary factors that effect the value of the weight
adjustment for a particular performance of a horse:
1 Place finished
2 Margin beaten
3 The field size
A simple generalization broadly describes the nature of this weight
adjustment process;
Winners go up the most, place-getters go up less or stay the same,
unplaced runners drop down to varying degrees. But remember this
is an adjustment to the horse's handicap rating not necessarily
its final handicap weight - it still to be subjected to the scaling
process.
How much winners, placegetters and the unplaced brigade have their
ratings varied is dependant upon how far they were beaten and
how many horses they defeated or were defeated by. Obviously its
a greater achievement to defeat 16 horses than say 6 horses (all
other factors being similar of course) as it is to win by 5 lengths
as opposed to 1, or to be defeated by 2 lengths running unplaced
as opposed to 10 lengths.
Minor factors that usually on their own would not cause any great
variation in but collectively can influences an adjustment to
a horse's handicap rating:
* quality of race field
* prizemoney earned
* interference encountered in running
* suitability of riding tactics employed
* distance suitability
* track condition suitability
* stage in horse's preparation
* overall performance record
The following table broadly describes the range of weight penalties
and allowances applied to country & provincial performances
by the AJC Handicapping Panel. These adjustments apply to horses
nominating for similar class and grades of races that they last
competed in, ie a horse that last ran in a country Class 3 Hcp
and nominated for another country Class 3 Hcp would have a weight
penalty/allowance applied that is consistent with the tables below.
Guidelines to terminology
Fieldsize
The definition of fieldsize terminology applying to all these
tables can be considered universal:
Small : Less than 8
Medium: 8 to 13
Large : 14+
Margins
The winning/beaten margin terminology is specific to each table
and generaldefinitions are listed below each table.
[I will format these tables better later, doug]
Weight Penalty Table For Winners
-----------------------------------------------
Winning Margin
-----------------------------------------------------------
Field Size Small Medium Large
-----------------------------------------------------------
Small +0.5 to 1kg +1 to 1.5kg +1.5 to 2kg
-----------------------------------------------------------
Medium +1.5 to 2kg +2 to 2.5kg +2.5 to 3kg
-----------------------------------------------------------
Large +2 to 2.5kg +2.5 to 3kg +3 to 3.5kg
-----------------------------------------------------------
Winning Margin Definitions
Small : <=0.9L
Medium: 1 to 2.2L
Large : 2.3L+
Weight Penalty/Allowance Table For Second Placegetters
-----------------------------------------------
| Beaten Margin |
-----------------------------------------------------------
Field Size| Small | Medium | Large |
-----------------------------------------------------------
Small | +0.5kg | +0.5 to 0kg | 0 to -0.5kg |
-----------------------------------------------------------
Medium | +1kg | +0.5 to 1kg | 0 to +0.5kg |
-----------------------------------------------------------
Large | +1.5kg | +1 to 1.5kg | +0.5 to 1kg |
-----------------------------------------------------------
Beaten Margin Definitions
As per winning table.
Weight Penalty/Allowance Table For Third Placegetters
-----------------------------------------------
| Beaten Margin |
-----------------------------------------------------------
Field Size| Small | Medium | Large |
-----------------------------------------------------------
Small | 0 to -0.5kg | -0.5kg | -0.5 to 1kg |
-----------------------------------------------------------
Medium | 0 to +0.5kg | 0kg | 0 to -0.5kg |
-----------------------------------------------------------
Large | +0.5 to 1kg | +0.5kg | +0.5 to 0kg |
-----------------------------------------------------------
Beaten Margin Definitions
Small : <=0.5L
Medium : 0.6 to 2.9L
Large : 3L+
Weight Allowance Table For Unplaced Horses
-----------------------------------------------
| Beaten Margin |
-----------------------------------------------------------
Field Size| Small | Medium | Large |
-----------------------------------------------------------
Small | -0.5kg | -0.5 to 1kg | -1kg |
-----------------------------------------------------------
Medium | 0 to -0.5kg | -1kg | -1 to 1.5kg |
-----------------------------------------------------------
Large | 0kg | -1 to 1.5kg | -1.5kg |
-----------------------------------------------------------
Beaten Margin Definitions
Small : <=3.5L
Medium : 3.6 to 9L
Large : 9.1L+
Please note that these are the typical range of penalties and
allowances and it is not unusual for handicappers to vary beyond
the ranges when circumstances dictate.
For instance when a combination of minor factors are all negative
for a horse's unplaced run then it may not have it's handicap
rating reduced ie if there were plenty of excuses for a horse
well beaten then this run may be ignored by the handicapper.
Consistent Horses
One important scenario concerning a minor factor playing a major
role in the way a horse is penalized is where a horse consistently
runs placings. Horses that have a high placings to wins ratio
(a qualifying factor for the recent 'herd horses' discussion on
the list) will be penalized much more leniently than horses that
have a better record in this area.
In some cases where this ratio is extreme second place efforts
are not penalized at all regardless of how many times they are
achieved. I remember one country horse in particular I used to
regularly handicap at Goulburn, 'Mazz and Me' after something
like 6 seconds (this included a metropolitan second placing) and
one third in its last 8 starts I had reduced its handicap rating
by about 1kg, despite the fact that it had consistently defeated
the majority of its competitors and earned several thousand dollars
in prizemoney.
By not continually penalizing the consistent placegetter the handicapper
provides an incentive for the connections of this type of horse
to 'keep trying'.
On the other side of the coin, horses that have exceptional winning
records will attract higher penalties than the above tables suggest,
simply because their performance record shows that the regular
range of penalties are no barrier to successful performance.
The principles and mathematics of handicapping is simple, accurate
application of them is difficult. Anyone can follow the guidelines
and develop handicap ratings that are in the right ballpark, but
the real art of handicapping is knowing when to go beyond the
policy guidelines and when not to, that only comes with hard won
experience - critically evaluating your performance after every
meeting and then feeding this back into your future handicapping.
Otherwise improvement cannot be gained.
Regards
MM
This article is Copyright 1996 Mark McGrath and is used with permission.
See the AusRace Archives for lots more interesting stuff.
